LEARNINGS FROM THE IPO OF NETS - DIRF · The Nordic countries are among the world's most advanced...

Post on 30-Apr-2020

1 views 0 download

Transcript of LEARNINGS FROM THE IPO OF NETS - DIRF · The Nordic countries are among the world's most advanced...

LEARNINGS FROM THE IPO OF NETSDIRF 15 June 2017

Things were looking good

When things don’t go as planned

When you IPO and the share price immediately drops

– initially all you have (more or less) are frustrated shareholders

Investors are trying to understand if they missed something when

they assessed the business case originally

Spending a lot of time on “what went wrong” with the IPO

Dealing with frustrated investors

Investment highlights at the IPO

5

The Nordic countries are among the world's most advanced payments

countries and fast-growing digital societies1

Leading provider of mission-critical services to the Nordic payments

ecosystem2

Well-positioned with an innovative and scalable platform3

Robust and attractive financial profile4

Multiple drivers of future growth and upside opportunities5

Educating analysts

Danish analysts

International

analysts

Knows about the Danish

products and solutions

Less knowledgeable of the

sector in general

Primarily sector specialist

New to the special Nordic

products like Dankort and

Betalingsservice

Non-consortium

analysts

They will be the primary voice

in the market during the black-

out period

Co

ns

ort

ium

an

aly

sts

Knowledge What they cover

Banks

IT and telco companies

Visa, Mastercard,

WorldPay, Worldline

etc.

Dealing with negative press stories

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

22-Sep 30-Sep 09-Oct 17-Oct 26-Oct 04-Nov 12-Nov 21-Nov 30-Nov

Rebased o

n N

ets

share

price (

DK

K)

(0.4)%

x.x%/(x.x)%: change vs previous day closing price

(20.0)%

30 Sept

ABG initiates

“Sell”, TP

DKK130

30 Sept

Mobilepay

chooses

Bambora

5 Oct

Danish shareholder

association comments

on Nets’ pricing

13 Oct

Nordea drops

Swipp, switches

to Mobilepay

20 Oct

End of

Stabilisation

period

25 Oct

ATP CEO

“disappointed” with

share performance

3 Nov

Initiation of coverage

IPO banks: 2 ‘Buy’, 3

‘Hold’

7 Nov

Carnegie initiates

“Hold”, TP 130

11 Nov

Q3

Earnings

release

11 Nov

Deutsche Bank

reiterates Buy -

TP: DKK152

11 Nov

JPMorgan raises

Nets to 'Buy' -

TP: DKK158

15 Nov

Sydbank

initiates

'Hold'

16 Nov

Nordea reiterates

"Hold", TP:

DKK140

14 Nov

Danish Banks

join MobilePay

(3.6)%

2.8%

(2.1)%

(4.4)%

0.9%0.0%

(0.7)%

(2.2)%(2.1)%

3.9%

(1.4)%

(1.7)%

From stable business model

to a story of disruption?

Not all themes have something specific to do with the business performance

“Failed IPO” and analysts don’t support the DKK 150 IPO price

”Bonuses” to senior management

Banks joining mobile Pay – creation of a Nets 2.0?

Will MobilePay launch a major attach on Dankort and Betalingsservice?

Will new regulation (PSD2) change the entire payment space as we know

it?

The press loves a good story

Don’t forget the organisation if they are not used to the media attention

Investment highlights today

11

The Nordic countries are among the world's most advanced payments

countries and fast-growing digital societies1

Leading provider of mission-critical services to the Nordic payments

ecosystem2

Well-positioned with an innovative and scalable platform3

Robust and attractive financial profile4

Multiple drivers of future growth and upside opportunities5

Try to understand where you think analysts misunderstand the story

Consider the disclosure level

No matter how difficult you think your business is, analysts and investors will always try and fit it in an Excel spreadsheet

It is not always the best solution to let analysts make their own assumptions

Analysts and investors will dive deep into the business operations to assess the risk in greater detail

Management have had to spend far more time on roadshows and investor meetings than anticipated

Time will have to proof the equity story