LAND USE CHANGE INDUCED BY LARGE SCALE LAND ACQUISITIONS

Paolo D’Odorico1,2, Maria Cristina Rulli 3

Stefano Casirati 3, Kyle Davis 1, Jampel Dell’Angelo 2

1 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia2 National Social-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland3 Department of Civil & Environmental Eng., Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Global Agricultural Security depends on TradeIn many countries domestic production is not sufficient

(D’Odorico, et al, Earth’s Future, 2014)Net Importers Net Exporters

1986 2010

Increasing Reliance on TradeGlobally, 24% of the food we eat 40% of biodiesel production

Globalization of Food, Land, and Water

• Increase in food prices, social unrest, riots…• Export bans in Russia, Indonesia, Argentina...• Food insecurity

Vulnerability of Trade-Dependent Countries

A look at the 2008 & 2011 food crisesImportation of food

Picture from: Afronline.org

Large Land Acquisitions

• Need for more food Close Yield Gaps• Need for secure access to food.

Controversial issues: Development opportunities or loss of rural livelihoods?

• Investments to increase yields Agricultural Intensification• … but the land is often not used for production no real development• Dispossession of local communities Loss of Rural Livelihoods• Counterargument: the land was “unused” Agricultural Extensification Environmental Impacts

• Water is a major driverQuestions:- Appropriation of land & land-based resources? Water as a driver?- How much more food can be produced at gap closure?- Prior land use? Evidence of Deforestation?

Global Water Appropriation

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Africa SouthAmerica

Asia &Oceania

Total

Gra

bbed

Gre

en W

ater

(billi

ons

of m

3 )Intended, no contract

Contract areas not in production

Contract Areas in Production

• Using land acquisition data from Land Matrix (2013) • And the CROPWAT model for crop water use (FAO)

[Rulli and D’Odorico, GRL, 2013.]

Green, Blue, and Grey Water

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Africa SouthAmerica

Asia &Oceania

Total

Grab

bed W

ater

(billi

ons o

f m3 )

Grey Water

Blue Water

Green Water

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Gra

bb

ed W

ater

(b

illio

ns

of

m3 ) Grey Water

Blue Water

Green Water

Considering only acquisitions for which a contract area has been reported

Blue Water: Scenario of “maximum irrigation”

[Rulli, Saviori, and D’Odorico, PNAS (2013); Rulli and D’Odorico, GRL, 2013]

RainwaterIrrigation water Water to dilute pollution

Comparison with other major water flows

Annual flow (m3 y-1)

Year Source

Water Appropriation from Land Rush 0.4 × 1012 2012 Rulli and D’Odorico,2013.

Groundwater Depletion0.14 × 1012

0.28 × 10122001 2008

Konikow, 2011

Wada et al., 2010

Grounwater Withdrawals 0.6-0.7 × 1012 Margat and Custodio, 2004Water Used for Biofuels ≈ 0.25 × 1012 2010 Our studyVirtual Water Trade (food only) 2.81 × 1012 2010 Carr et al., 2013Freshwater Used for Food 6.75 × 1012

11.8 × 1012

1996-05

2010

Mekonnen&Hoekstra 2011

Carr et al., 2013

Food potentially produced in acquired land

(Rulli and D’Odorico, ERL, 2014)

How many people could be fed?

(Rulli and D’Odorico, ERL, 2014)

(Rulli and D’Odorico , Environm. Res. Lett., 2014)

Food “Appropriation” in Africa

Are crops exported or made available to the local populations?

Total for Africa (Millions):52-89: with Existing Technology 123-212: at Gap Closure (140% increase)

223 Million Malnourished People in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2013)

(Rulli and D’Odorico , Environm. Res. Lett., 2014)

Only ≈25% of the land is in production

Two different types of impacts

- If previously cultivated/used livelihood loss- If previously uncultivated environmental impacts

(D’Odorico and Rulli, Nat. Geo., 2014)

Was the land previously cultivated?Do land investors cause deforestation?

Data

• 2000-2013 forest change maps by Hansen et al. (Science, 2013) - 30-m resolution Landsat 7 data

• Land oil palm concessions (Indonesian Government). • Logging concessions data for Liberia (WRI, 2014) • The Land Matrix database.

Deforestation in Oil Palm Concessions in Indonesia

About 25% of deforestation is in Oil Palm Concessions

Deforestation in about 25% of Oil Palm Concessions

(Rulli et al., in prep. - See also Carlson et al., PNAS 2012)

The Case of Logging in Liberia

Concessions for loggingForest LossForest Gain

Closed evergreen lowland forest

Mosaic Forest/ Crop-lands

Degraded Evergreen

lowland forest

Deciduous shrubland & Submontane forests

(Rulli et al., in preparation)

(ha)

Conclusions

• If used for local needs the acquired lands would produce enough to abate malnourishment

- … but investors acquire the land as a business opportunity/option for the future, without starting production.

- … commodification of the land- Evidence of deforestation induced by Large Scale Land Acquisitions