Land Use and Transportation Models

G111/211a

Draft Notes

New era

Policies aim at more complex processes Sustainability is becoming increasingly more

popular – possibly accepted practice(?!) Cause and effects between transportation

and land use are not one-way linear sequences

Short, medium, and long term relationships can now be modeled using somewhat sophisticated tools and fast computers

CAAA – ISTEA - TEA-21

LAND USE

AIR QUALITYTRANSPORTATION

INTEGRATED MODELS = AN

ACCOUNT

FOR

TWO WAY RELATIONSHIPS

It is a different and changing policy world – European

Union, Japan, Canada, Australia, and USA

Mobility vs Accessibility

Mobility vs accessibility policies (Kennedy et al, 2005)

-Policy Coordination with Packages of Policy Actions in the EU

-Effective Governance =

Integration of Policies =

New Needs for Policy Action Assessments =

More Informative Models

Transportation and Land Use

Land Development --> Location Choices Location Choices --> Activities Location Choices - Car Ownership Activities -> Travel Travel -> Flows Flows -> Activity Patterns Use Spatial Distribution AND MANY MORE See next

Example: Mobility as Transit Mobility

Use land use to increase transit use (TCRP study)

Seven Groups of Factors (1&2/7)

Increase Residential Density Activity locations closer

to each other Transit service more

economical Other factors need to be

considered

Neighborhood Design

Mixed land use Transit friendly designs

(think of turning radius) Mode separation Size!

Seven Groups of Factors (3&4/7)

Transit Supply Situational barriers System & Service

(availability, frequency, timing/flexibility)

Knowledge/information Negative predisposition Cost/time/comfort

Car Ownership Number of cars Types of cars Specialization = more

use? Costs (perceived and

real)

Seven Groups of Factors (5&6/7)

Socioeconomics Age Gender Income Employment/Occupation Social Role

Workplace/Employment Density Bring the CBD back! High density suburban

centers Campus examples Parking?

The Seventh Factor

Accessibility Connectivity Amount of activities Closeness

These factors are not acting alone –

mediation!

Wegener’s simplified cycle

Wegener’s LU/T Feedback Cycle

Lagged Relationships

Theories

Spatial Interaction (Distance decay functions) Urban Land Markets (Bid rent) Waves Theories – Urban Life Cycles (Rise and Fall) Social Ecology (Clusters and specialized centers) Action-space analyses -> optimal space and

location for activities Time-budgets -> time geography -> activity-based

approaches NEXT??????

The Von Thunen Model of Market, Production, and Distance R = Y(p-c) – Yfm

R = Rent per unit of land. Y = Yield per unit of land. p = market price per unit of yield. c = Average production costs per unit of yield. m = Distance from market (in kilometers or miles). f = Freight rate per unit of yield and unit of distance.

Assumptions: Isolation. There is one isolated market in an isolated state having no interactions

(trade) with the outside. Ubiquitous land characteristics. The land surrounding the market in entirely flat and

its fertility uniform. Transportation. It is assumed there are no transport infrastructures such as roads or

rivers and that farmers are transporting their production to the market using horses and carts. Transportation costs are dependent of the type of commodity being transported to the market as well as the distance involved.

http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/

The Isolated Statevon Thünen, 1826

See also: http://www.csiss.org/classics/content/9

Lessons Learned

Land Rent: Distance Decay

Central PlacesChristaller, 1933

A Central Place is a settlement or a nodal point that serves the area around with goods and services (Mayhew, 1997). Christaller's model also was based on the premise that all goods and services were purchased by consumers from the nearest central place, that the demands placed on all central places in the plain were similar, and that none of the central places made any excessive profit. See http://www.csiss.org/classics/content/67

Bid-Rent TheoryAlonso, 1964

Example: Bid rent theories

Diamond sales in the CBD and agriculture in the periphery – residences obey a somewhat different law/rule

Retail LocationHuff, 1964

Huff Retail Location Model – competitive with explicit macro-rules: see also http://www.belkcollege.uncc.edu/mjkhouja/Locate8.ppt#261,10,Single Facility Location Using Cross Median Approach

Household LocationPark & Burgess, 1925

An evolutionary approach to urban ecology: http://www.csiss.org/classics/content/26

Burgess Model

Isard’s Hybrid Model

Note the Corridors of development

Action SpacesHägerstrand, 1970

The Brotchie Triangle

Interaction = travel time

Dispersion = employment distance from City centre

Theoretical Expectations About

Relationships

From Land Use to Transportation

From Land Use to Transportation

From Land Use to Transportation

From Land Use to Transportation

Better Transportation -> Better Accessibility

What happens to land use?

From Transportation to Land Use via Accessibility

From Transportation to Land Use via Accessibility

From Transportation to Transportation

From Transportation to Transportation

From Transportation to Transportation

Ideal Designs

Monocentric – Compact City

Polycentric – Pockets of Paradise

Dispersed Development – People Driven

Empirical (Data analysis) Studies

General findings

From Land Use to Transport

From Land Use to Transport

Be Aware of Selectivity Issues

People that select city centers different than people in suburbs

People that select to live in large cities different than small town dwellers

Large portions of decision making spheres largely neglected – school choice, effect of family and friends, family endowments, what else?

From Transportation to Land Use

From Transportation to Transportation

MODELS

Many – different time and space resolutions and assumptions

about behavior

What we need

See Meyer and Miller chapter 6 And Miller in KG book

The Miller model – policies and models

Models in Practice

Three Main ways to Quantify Land Use Transport Interactions

Hypothetically change land use and ask people what they will do differently Advantages and disadvantages

Create experiments were we actually change land use and observe people behavior Advantages and disadvantages

Build computer simulators with models that show these interactions and behavioral changes Advantages and disadvantages

The Models Developed

Waddell’s Taxonomy

Operational and Under Development Land Use Models

From TRB workshop by Miller – based on Knight and Trygg 1977

http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/ornl.html

Dynamics/Lags

Integration for what?

Meplan – source Hunt/Miller TRB workshop

Idealized Model System (TCRP H-12)

Design & Modeling

Beyond todays LU/Trans

Websites www.acs.ucalgary.ca/~jabraham/ MEPLAN_and_Urban_Economics.PDF http://www.urbansim.org/ http://www.modelistica.com/tranus_english.htm http://www.mussa.cl/E_index.html http://www.civil.engineering.utoronto.ca/English/ILUTE-Research.html http://www.geosimulation.org/geosim/lutms.htm http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TP/Modeling.shtml http://ntl.bts.gov/DOCS/ornl.html

What else can we change by design?

Next Models in Practice & PROPOLIS Examples