Kentucky Preliminary Population Projections, 2015-2040

State, Counties, and ADDs

Matt Ruther Kentucky State Data Center

Department of Urban and Public Affairs University of Louisville

August 5, 2016

Motivation for Updated Projections

2000-2005: 3.3% 2005-2010: 3.9% 2010-2015: 1.8%

Motivation for Updated Projections

Population Projection Methodology

Generate county-level projections using cohort-component model

− 5-year age groups “aged forward” based on existing rates

□ Fertility rates

□ Mortality rates

□ Net migration rates

County-level projections aggregated within ADDs and within state to get higher-level projections

− Projections of households and population in households will be based on total population

5Mx = 5Nx+5 - 5Nx(5Sx)

Births 2010-2014

‒ Approximately 55,000 births per year

‒ Total Fertility Rate: 1.94

Natural Increase – Births

ADD TFR

Pennyrile 2.33 Kentucky River 2.14 Lincoln Trail 2.13 Buffalo Tract 2.12 FIVCO 2.11 Green River 2.11 Big Sandy 2.10 Cumberland Valley 2.09 Lake Cumberland 2.01 Northern Kentucky 1.97 KIPDA 1.91 Gateway 1.89 Barren River 1.84 Purchase 1.82 Bluegrass 1.73

Deaths 2010-2014

‒ Approximately 43,000 deaths per year in Kentucky

‒ Life expectancy at birth: Female – 78.8 Male – 73.7

Natural Increase – Deaths

Female

Male

Life Expectancy at Birth – ADDs

Female e0 Male e0 KIPDA 79.9 Northern Kentucky 75.3 Bluegrass 79.9 Bluegrass 75.0 Northern Kentucky 79.7 KIPDA 74.8 Lincoln Trail 79.4 Lincoln Trail 74.3 Green River 79.4 Barren River 74.2 Purchase 78.9 Green River 74.1 Barren River 78.9 FIVCO 73.2 Gateway 78.6 Purchase 73.2 FIVCO 77.9 Pennyrile 73.0 Pennyrile 77.9 Gateway 72.9 Lake Cumberland 77.8 Buffalo Trace 72.5 Buffalo Trace 77.3 Lake Cumberland 72.5 Cumberland Valley 75.9 Cumberland Valley 70.6 Big Sandy 75.4 Big Sandy 69.4 Kentucky River 74.1 Kentucky River 67.5

Net Migration Rates

2005-2010

2010-2015

51 (-)

71 (-)

2015: 4,425,092 2040: 4,775,779

State Population Projections

2015: 4,425,092 2040: 4,775,779

State Population Projections

Population Change, 2010 to 2015

Population % Change, 2010 to 2015

Projected % Change, 2015 to 2040

Projected Gain/Loss, 2015 to 2040

ADD Projected % Change, 2015 to 2040

Deviation from Prior Projections

14 counties have higher 2040 projections

− Largest difference: Campbell County (+4,508)

106 counties have lower 2040 projections

− Largest difference: Boone County (-42,967)

− 2nd largest different:

Bullitt County (-19,853)

State Population Pyramids

2015 2040

Note: x-axis is % of total population, not total population

ADD Population Pyramids, 2015

ADD Population Pyramids, 2040

Group Quarters Populations

Next Directions

Comments/suggestions/criticisms

− Local knowledge is beneficial

Investigate GQ population trends

− Generate projections of population in households

Generate projections of households

− Based on the household headship method

− Calculate household size

Future Plans

Update projection model each year for subsequent 25-year period

− Drop most distant year of fertility, mortality, and migration data – add newest year of data

Advantage: Projections are using most up-to-date data available

Disadvantage: Different “vintages” of projections

Kentucky Preliminary Population Projections, 2015-2040

State, Counties, and ADDs

Matt Ruther Kentucky State Data Center

Department of Urban and Public Affairs University of Louisville

August 5, 2016