Kentucky Preliminary Population Projections, 2015-2040...
Transcript of Kentucky Preliminary Population Projections, 2015-2040...
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Kentucky Preliminary Population Projections, 2015-2040
State, Counties, and ADDs
Matt Ruther Kentucky State Data Center
Department of Urban and Public Affairs University of Louisville
August 5, 2016
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Motivation for Updated Projections
2000-2005: 3.3% 2005-2010: 3.9% 2010-2015: 1.8%
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Motivation for Updated Projections
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Population Projection Methodology
Generate county-level projections using cohort-component model
− 5-year age groups “aged forward” based on existing rates
□ Fertility rates
□ Mortality rates
□ Net migration rates
County-level projections aggregated within ADDs and within state to get higher-level projections
− Projections of households and population in households will be based on total population
5Mx = 5Nx+5 - 5Nx(5Sx)
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Births 2010-2014
‒ Approximately 55,000 births per year
‒ Total Fertility Rate: 1.94
Natural Increase – Births
ADD TFR
Pennyrile 2.33 Kentucky River 2.14 Lincoln Trail 2.13 Buffalo Tract 2.12 FIVCO 2.11 Green River 2.11 Big Sandy 2.10 Cumberland Valley 2.09 Lake Cumberland 2.01 Northern Kentucky 1.97 KIPDA 1.91 Gateway 1.89 Barren River 1.84 Purchase 1.82 Bluegrass 1.73
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Deaths 2010-2014
‒ Approximately 43,000 deaths per year in Kentucky
‒ Life expectancy at birth: Female – 78.8 Male – 73.7
Natural Increase – Deaths
Female
Male
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Life Expectancy at Birth – ADDs
Female e0 Male e0 KIPDA 79.9 Northern Kentucky 75.3 Bluegrass 79.9 Bluegrass 75.0 Northern Kentucky 79.7 KIPDA 74.8 Lincoln Trail 79.4 Lincoln Trail 74.3 Green River 79.4 Barren River 74.2 Purchase 78.9 Green River 74.1 Barren River 78.9 FIVCO 73.2 Gateway 78.6 Purchase 73.2 FIVCO 77.9 Pennyrile 73.0 Pennyrile 77.9 Gateway 72.9 Lake Cumberland 77.8 Buffalo Trace 72.5 Buffalo Trace 77.3 Lake Cumberland 72.5 Cumberland Valley 75.9 Cumberland Valley 70.6 Big Sandy 75.4 Big Sandy 69.4 Kentucky River 74.1 Kentucky River 67.5
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Net Migration Rates
2005-2010
2010-2015
51 (-)
71 (-)
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2015: 4,425,092 2040: 4,775,779
State Population Projections
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2015: 4,425,092 2040: 4,775,779
State Population Projections
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Population Change, 2010 to 2015
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Population % Change, 2010 to 2015
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Projected % Change, 2015 to 2040
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Projected Gain/Loss, 2015 to 2040
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ADD Projected % Change, 2015 to 2040
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Deviation from Prior Projections
14 counties have higher 2040 projections
− Largest difference: Campbell County (+4,508)
106 counties have lower 2040 projections
− Largest difference: Boone County (-42,967)
− 2nd largest different:
Bullitt County (-19,853)
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State Population Pyramids
2015 2040
Note: x-axis is % of total population, not total population
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ADD Population Pyramids, 2015
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ADD Population Pyramids, 2040
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Group Quarters Populations
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Next Directions
Comments/suggestions/criticisms
− Local knowledge is beneficial
Investigate GQ population trends
− Generate projections of population in households
Generate projections of households
− Based on the household headship method
− Calculate household size
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Future Plans
Update projection model each year for subsequent 25-year period
− Drop most distant year of fertility, mortality, and migration data – add newest year of data
Advantage: Projections are using most up-to-date data available
Disadvantage: Different “vintages” of projections
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Kentucky Preliminary Population Projections, 2015-2040
State, Counties, and ADDs
Matt Ruther Kentucky State Data Center
Department of Urban and Public Affairs University of Louisville
August 5, 2016