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Bringing Foresight

AdemonstrationofhowIntSightmonitorsachemicalcompany’skeyconcerns

Businessquestionsofconcern(chemicalindustryclient)

1.  Whataretheimplicationsofthebiodegradabilityissuetothechemicalindustry?

2.  Whataretherealrisksposedbybiodegradabilityconcernstothechemicalsmarket?Example:whichsectorsarehit7irst?

3.  WhataretheprospectsandimplicationsifAEEA*wastotallybanned?

*Aminoethylethanolamine–usedinshampoos,textilesoftenersandchelatingagents

Marketvalueofbiodegradablechemicalproducts(snapshotview)

Product/Service* MarketValue(€) Source

Bio‐farming(plant‐basedpharmaceuticals/nutraceuticals)

$67billion(by2010) AmericanSocietyofAgriculturalEngineers(Sept,2002)

Bio‐pharmaceuticals $550billion(by2009) HongKongTradeDevelopmentCouncil(Sept,2009)

Bioplastics Over$5billion(by2018)

WorldBioplasticsIndustry(Nov,2009)

TOTALestimatedmarketvalue

$622billion

*Productsbiodegradenaturally

Intsight’sMethodology

Understanding the Issue of Concern

(ARQ)

Signpost / Indicator Development

Keyword and Search Strategy Development

Information Research and Analysis

Information Organization and

Discovery

Information Sensemaking and

Structuring

Issues Monitoring and Trending

Hypothesis (re)Framing and (new) Issues Identification

EnvironmentalScanning&AnalysisSystem

(ESASTM)

Addressingbusinessquestion(BQ)1:

Implicationsofthebiodegradabilityissuetothechemicalindustry

BQ1:Implicationsofbiodegradabilityissuetothechemicalindustry

Problem broken down into three issues of concern oriented by

stakeholder actions and opinion

1.   WhataretheCorporateActionstowardenvironmentalandsocialsustainabilityofchemicalproducts?

2.   WhataretheNGOActionstowardbiodegradabilityofchemicalproducts?

3.   WhataretheRegulatorActionstowardbiodegradabilityofchemicalproducts?

Whatarebusinessesdoing?

Thesameprocessisconductedfortheothertwostakeholders:NGOsandRegulators

Informationsources:1.Robottrawlers2.Proprietarydatabases3.HUMINT(IntSightersnetworkandscoutsontheground)

Foreachissueofconcern,indicatorsaredevelopedtoinformthekeywordandsearchstrategy

development

Understandingcorporateactions

•  Basedontheinformationscanforthepast2years,IntSightidenticiesthefollowingthemesandrelationships:

–  Marketdemandforbiodegradability•  Example:ICISChemical‐BusinessArticle(“Bio‐basedandplasticsgainingdemand”)

–  Competitionlandscapeforbiodegradability•  Examples:ENPNewswireArticle(“Cytecrollsoutnewenvironmentallyfriendlyproducts”)

•  JapanChemicalWebArticle(“Korea’sKolondevelopszincpyrithionecompositematerialforshampooandanticorrosionandantifungalagents”)

–  Retailer­sideenforcementofbiodegradability–  Patentapplicationsforbiodegradableprocessesorproducts–  Chemicalsindustrylobbyingforbiodegradability–  Corporatesocialresponsibility

Thesameprocessisconductedfortheothertwostakeholders:NGOsandRegulators

Processforunderstandingcorporateactions

ValueOutcome:• Informstheclient’sstrategiestowardbiodegradabilityvis‐à‐visthecurrentcompetitionandmarketlandscape

Processforanalyzingcorporateactions

Keyincidents(whiteboxes):Similarincidentsoccurringacrossdifferentcontextscanbedetectedasatrendforattention

ValueOutcome:1.  Overviewofcompetitionandmarketlandscape:assessmentofkeydriversto

monitorwithstrategyrecommendations2.  Thesameframeworkcanbeusedtoprioritizescenariosandstressteststrategies

toinformtheclient’sR&Dandmarketingfocusandbudget

Thesameprocessisconductedfortheothertwostakeholders:NGOsandRegulators

Addressingbusinessquestion(BQ)2:

Whichsectorsarebeinghitcirstbybiodegradabilityconcerns?

BQ2:Whichsectorsarehit7irst?

•  Usingthevisualanalytictools,weanalysedallrelevantinformation(30+articles)pertainingto“Biodegradability”and“IndustrialChemicals”andcilteredthemby“ProductApplications”

•  InitialResults–  MostofthediscussionsrevolvedaroundInsecticide(40%),Pesticide(31%),

andFungicide(14%)–  Collectively,thefollowingproductsoccupytheremaining15%:surfactant,

shampoo,corrosioninhibitor,polyamide,antioxidant–  IntSightcanperformdeeperanalysisofthenature/sentimentofthe

discussionsaswellasmonitorthechangesindistributionacrossallproductapplications

BQ2: which sectors are hit first?

Output:1.   Firstlevel:Whataretheproductapplicationsandhowfrequentaretheymentionedovertimeonadailybasis?2.Secondlevel:Who,Where,How,Why

ValueOutcome:• Identiciesrisksandopportunities(“hotspots”and“warmspots”)andmonitorhowtheychangeovertime• Informsstrategiestoaddresstherisksandopportunities

Input:(Biodegradability+industrialchemicals)+productapplications

40%

31%

14%

15%

Addressingbusinessquestion(BQ)3:

ImplicationsofabanonAEEA

BQ3:Whatifthere’sabanonAEEA?

•  TobuildascenarioconcerningAEEA,wecombinedallthevariousstakeholder(Corporate,NGO,Regulator)systemmapstoformthe“bigpicture”ofbiodegradabilityissueimplicationstothechemicalsindustry(BusinessQuestion1).

•  Basedontheinteractionpathswithinthesystemmap,wecandevelopscenariossuchasawidespreadbacklashonAEEA,andnewindicatorstomonitorthescenario(e.g.,likelihoodofoccurrenceovertime).

BQ3:Whatifthere’satotalbanonAEEA?

NGOoracademic‐ledresearch,marketdemandforbiodegradabilityandNGOpolicyrecommendationsforindustryareimportantdriverstomonitorastheycreateincluentialchangewithintheentirestakeholdersystem

Anticipateandmonitorfutureconcerns

Value Outcome: 1. AEEA scenario assessment of the entire stakeholder operational and sentiment environment 2. Strategy recommendations 3. Base template for longer term issues monitoring to provide early warning

Productdeliveryformat

Demo Products Frequency

BusinessQuestions1to3 Today’sConcern©

(CurrentIssuesMonitoring)Daily/Weekly

Peripheralissuesthatcouldbeofconcerntotheclient

Outlyers©(EmergingOpportunities&Risks)

Weekly/Monthly

DeeperanalysisofBusinessQuestions1to3

IntSights© Commissioned(ad­hoc)andAnnualbasis

IntSightcanbuildthesystemfortheclientasanintranethostedwithintheorganization’ssecureenvironment

EnterpriseEnvironmentalScanningandAnalysisSystem(ESAS©)

3to6monthdevelopmenttimeline

EnterpriseEnvironmentalScanningandAnalysisSystem(ESAS©)

Features• AcquireandGatherinformationfromanywhereintheWorldWideWebandclosedsources

• ManageandAssessinformationsourcesandindicatorsinasystematicandobjectiveway

• PublishandShareinformationviaemailsordigitalreports

• MakeSenseofinformationwithamenuofvisualanalyticstools

• Setinformationalertsintheformofexecutivedashboardsformanagementdecisionandaction

• PlanandDocumentstrategiesandstandardoperatingprocedures(SOP)

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THANKYOU

LukePestana ManagingDirector,IntSightPteLtd Luke.pestana@intsight.net