IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Advanced Decision Advanced Decision Support for Energy and Support for Energy and Environmental PlanningEnvironmental Planning

OR 2001, September 4 2001,Duisburg

MESAP/TIMESMESAP/TIMES

Uwe Remme, Ulrich Schellmann, Christoph Schlenzig, IER, University of Stuttgart

Gary Goldstein, International Resources Group (IRG), Washington

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

l Energy system model TIMES

l Planning system MESAP- Architecture and features of MESAP- Integration of TIMES into MESAP- Components of MESAP

- Overview- Characteristics

Contents

l Outlook- Future developments

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Industry

Commercial and tertiary sector

Households

Transportation

Coal processing

Refineries

Power plantsand

Transportation

CHP plantsand district

heat networks

Gas network

Final energyPrimary energy

Domesticsources

Imports

Ene

rgy

pric

es, R

esou

rce

avai

labi

lity GDP

Process energy

Heating area

Population

Light

Communication

Power

Person kilometers

Freight kilometers

Demand services

Dem

and

s

Energy flows

Emissions

Capacities

Costs

Prices

Energy system model

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Goals of the TIMES development

EFOM-ENV MARKAL

- Limited subannual resolution

- Difficult to move time horizon

+ Flexible process description

- Dummy processes

- Difficult to move time horizon

+ RES based

+ Flexible descriptionSubdivisions of the yearRegions

+ Modularity

+ Prepare for ongoing research

The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Features• Elastic demands• Vintaging• Inter-temporal• User-defined constraints• Flexible process description• Load curve• Regions

TOOLS• ANSWER, ABARE• VEDA, GERAD• MESAP, IER

Applications (IER)

• TIMES-BY• TIMES-GES• TIMES-D

Methodology• Bottom-up Model• Perfect competition• Perfect foresight• Optimisation (LP)

Min/Max Objective functions.t.Equations, ConstraintsDecision Variables <=> SolutionInput parameters

Development• The Integrated MARKAL EFOM

System• By ETSAP• Implementation in GAMS

TIMESTIMES

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Flexible Processes

BOILER 1

BOILER 2

BOILER 3

Coal

Oil

Gas

DUMMY TECHDummy fuelSteam

Emissions MARKAL

Coal

Oil

GasBOILER 1

Steam

Emissions TIMES

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Flexibility in time

Seasons, e.g. hydro powerWISP SU FA

Weekly, e.g. electricity demandWD WE WD WD WE WD WEWE

Daynite, e.g. electricity demandD N D N D N D N

Ele

ctric

ity lo

ad

Day time

Ele

ctric

ity lo

ad

Day time

Ele

ctric

ity lo

ad

Day time

Ele

ctric

ity lo

ad

Day time

Model horizonPeriod 4Period 3Period 2Period 1

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Multi regions

REG 2

REG 3Area of study

Electricity

Steel

Money

Oil

Inter-regionalexchange process

Gas

REG 1

Importregion

Exportregion

AluminumCoal

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Objective function

Technical lifetime

Period t3 Period t4t1= v vintage Period t2

Annualizing of the investment costs

Investment costs Decommissioning costs

Constructiontime

Technical lifetime=Economic lifetime

Model years

Annualized costs

Decommissioningtime

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

ImportsfromRussia,4.7 TWh/a

Exports to Germany,2.3 TWh/a

1415 MW

1915 MW

2450 MW

2600 MW

2270 MW

2440 MW

1040

MW

1040

MW

Imports fromRussia,4.7

TWh/year

Exports to Germany,

2.3 TWh/year

Example: Electricity model of Nordic countries

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Electricity generation and import

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160Wind power

Conventionalcondensing

CHP district heat

CHP industry

Nuclear power

Hydropower

Electricity generation

FINLAND SWEDEN NORWAY DENMARK

Periods: 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025

TWh

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

From Norway to Denmark

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

From Sweden to Denmark

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

From Sweden to Finland

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

From Norway to Sweden

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

Electricity trade, TWh

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Complexity of an energy system model

l Large system to analyze. Size depends on the number of

- technologies- time periods- regions- time segments for representing load curves.

l Interdependencies between different parts of the system

l Many scenarios

Software tools needed to build, manage a modeland analyze its results !

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

PlaNetPlaNetEnergySystem

Simulation

TIMESTIMESEnergySystem-

Optimization

PROFAKOPROFAKOOperationalPlanning for

Electricity andDistrict Heat

INCAINCA

InvestmentCalculation

XtractorXtractorGAMSModel

Interface

CalQlatorCalQlatorGeneralEquation

Editor

DataCubeDataCube

ANALYSTANALYST

ExplorerExplorer

DatabaseDatabase

MESAP Information System

DataSheetDataSheet

Master DataMaster Data

Case ManagerCase Manager

RESRES--EditorEditor InternetInternet

ImIm//XporterXporter

InterfacesInterfaces

- Excel, csv, ASCII- DataLink - Internet Crawler

MESAPModular Energy System Analysis & Planning

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Characteristics of MESAP 4

l Softwareü Windows 2000 Standardü Client-Server Architectureü Access / SQL Server / Oracle DBü Open User Interface as public DLL

l New Database structureü Multi-dimensional Data Keyü User Interface Multi-lingual

l Functional Extensionü Multi-dimensional, containerised RES-Editorü Flexible Unit and Currency Handlingü Flexible Multi-user Access rights

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP 4 Software Architecture

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Modelling steps

RES

Scenarios

Solving

Analysis of results

Model data

Characterization

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

TIMES Shell in MESAP 4

DataCubeDataCube

TIMESModel

Equations

*.**.mod

ANALYSTANALYST

ScenarioScenarioManagerManager

RES EditorRES Editor

DataSheetDataSheet

TIMES ShellTIMES Shell

Model Definition

Comp. Characterization

Model Run

User InterfaceUser Interface

XtractXtract RoutineRoutineWrite Include Files

Import Results

Bulk LoaderBulk Loader

*.dd

*.*

*.dd

Existing TIMESmodels (e.g. converted

from MARKAL)

Results

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP Explorer

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP RES Editor

...RES Editor- for building up the Model Topology- for navigating in the RES- for direct Access to

Input Data and Model Results

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

RES Editor Container View

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

RES Editor Total View

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP DataSheet

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP DataSheet

Inspector Panel

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP DataSheet

Spreadsheet

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP DataSheet

On-line Graph

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP Analyst

...Report Sheet for pre-calculations- Write Input Data to Data Base

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP Analyst

...Report Sheet for DisplayingModel Results in Data Base using Table and Graph Templates

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

MESAP DataCube

...Cube View for analyzing Model Results in Data Baseusing the Online Analysis Processing (OLAP) - free configuration of the dimensions by drag&drop- collapsing / de-collapsing for automatic aggregation

IERUniversity of Stuttgart

Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy

Outlook

§ Methodology- Technological learning- Macroeconomic linkage, e.g. TIMES-MACRO- Multi-stage stochastic programming- …

§ Application§ Converting existing MARKAL and EFOM models§ Building a global model