INSIGHTS ON DISASTER RESILIENCE

FROM 2008’S DISASTERS AND DISASTER PLANNING

SCENARIOS

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE DISASTERS

AND THE CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS

2008

NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008NOTABLE DISASTERS IN 2008

CYCLONE NARGIS

WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

FLOODING IN MIDWESTERN USA

TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES

WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA

ERUPTION OF VOLCANO CHAITEN

CATALYSTS FOR CHANGECATALYSTS FOR CHANGE

NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR NEW KNOWLEDGE FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

MAIN IDEA

Each disaster provides deeper insights on: 1) Protection, 2) Preparedness, 3)

Early Warning, 4) Emergency Response, and 5) Recovery and Reconstruction

BOOK OF

BOOK OF

KNOWLEDGE

KNOWLEDGE

- Perspectives

- Perspectives

On Science, Policy,

On Science, Policy,

And DISASTER

And DISASTER RESILIENCE

RESILIENCE

GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE GOAL: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE

FLOODS

SEVERE WIND STORMS

EARTHQUAKES

DROUGHTS

LANDSLIDES

WILDFIRES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

TERRORISM

INCREASED TECHNICAL AND POLITICL CAPACITY OF COMMUNITY TO COPE

INCREASED TECHNICAL AND POLITICL CAPACITY OF COMMUNITY TO COPE

INCREASED OWNERSHIP AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE

INCREASED OWNERSHIP AND USE OF KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE

IMPROVE ON PAST IMPROVE ON PAST PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE

IMPROVE ON PAST IMPROVE ON PAST PERFORMANCE PERFORMANCE

YOURYOUR

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

YOURYOUR

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PROTECTION•PEPAREDNESS•EARLY WARNING•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY/RECONSTRUCT.

FIVE PILLARS OF FIVE PILLARS OF RESILIENCERESILIENCE

QUICK REVIEWS

SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS DURING 2008

• CYCLONE NARGIS, MYANMAR (BURMA), MAY 2-3

PATH OF CYCLONE NARGIS: WARNING IGNORED: MAY 2-3, 2008

CYCLONE NARGIS:

• People unprepared.• The storm's 120 mph winds

blew roofs off hospitals, downed trees, and cut electricity to the country's largest city, Rangon.

• Torrential rain caused local flooding.

•Myanmar’s policies of self-sufficiency delayed entry of food and materials from all but a few countries, and usually without the skilled disaster workers.

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS

• WHEN YOU HAVE EARLY WARNING, USE IT TO EVACUATE THE PEOPLE IN HARM’S WAY

• MORE LIVES ARE SAVED AND RECOVERY IS ACCELERATED WHEN YOU ARE PREPARED TO ACCEPT INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS DURING 2008

• VOLCANO CHAITEN (CHILE), MAY 3

AFTER 10,000 YEAR DORMANCY, CHAITEN ERUPTS IN CHILE

CHAITEN‘S ERUPTION CHANGED THE STATUS QUO

•PRESIDENT DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY

•1500 EVACUATED

•DRINKING WATER CONTAMINATED

CHAITEN CAUSES SEA EVACUATIONS

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM VOLCANO CHAITEN

• EVACUATE THE PEOPLE IN HARM’S WAY WHEN YOU HAVE RELIABLE EARLY WARNING

• DON’T BECOME UN-PREPARED JUST BECAUSE NO ERUPTIONS HAVE HAPPENED FOR A LONG TIME, EVEN IF THE VOLCANO IS NOT IN YOUR COUNTRY

SEVEN NOTABLE DISASTERS DURING 2008

• WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTH-QUAKE; MAY 12

WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

• 88,000 DEAD

• 25 MILLIONS HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED

• NO MODERN BUILDING CODE

45,690,000 people were affected by the disaster.

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

• BUILDINGS COLLAPSE, INFRASTRUCTURE LOSES FUNCTION, LIVES ARE LOST, AND MONEY IS WASTED WHEN BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE ARE NOT PROTECTED BY MODERN BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS.

SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE DISASTERS DURING 2008

• FLOODING IN MIDWEST USA, JUNE 5-16

AFFECTED MIDWESTERN STATES: JUNE 2008

Thousands Evacuated and Hundreds of Thousands

AffectedFew Deaths, but Losses Reach

Billions5-16 June 2008

FLOODED CORNFIELDS IN DECATUR, ILLINOIS; JUNE 5TH

ILLINOIS' LEVEE BREAKS: JUNE 10TH

SAND BAGS: CEDAR FALLS, IOWA; JUNE 11TH

UNUSUAL FLOODING IN IOWA:

A “500 YEAR FLOOD” SITUATION DEVELOPED AS NINE IOWA RIVERS REACHED OR APPROACHED HISTORIC LEVELS.

FLOODING: CEDAR RAPIDS, IOWA; JUNE 12TH

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM USA’S FLOODS

• MONITORING, EARLY WARNING, EVACUATION, AND WETLANDS, SANDBAGS, LEVEES, AND DAMS ARE VITAL FOR SAVING LIVES AND PROTECTING PROPERTY.

• BEING PREPARED INCLUDES CONSIDERATION OF POSSIBLE WATER-BORNE DISEASES

SEVEN TYPES OF NOTABLE DISASTERS DURING 2008

• 16 SEVERE WINDSTORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN; 2008 SEASON

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM 2008’S SEVERE WINDSTORMS

• EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION TO MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY ARE VITAL FOR SAVING LIVES

• WIND ENGINEERING PROTECTS PROPERTY

• INSURANCE SPREADS RISK

SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS

• CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES, JULY

t

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM CALIFORNIA’S WILDFIRES

• EARLY WARNING PROVIDES TIME TO EVACUATE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE IN HARM’S WAY

• POST-WILDFIRES SLOPES ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO MUDFLOWS

• REGIONAL COOPERATION SPEEDS RESPONSE AND RECOVERY

SEVEN NOTABLE TYPES OF DISASTERS

• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, ONGOING

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: A DEVELOPING ISSUE

• Small European glaciers are melting.

• Larger glaciers, Greenland, and Antarctica are also melting, but much slower.

• Average global temperature is rising.

• Sea level is rising.

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

• LONG-TERM MONITORING IS VITAL FOR UNDERSTANDING WHAT IS HAPPENING OVER TIME,AND WHY

• UNDERSTANDING IS THE KEY TO REALISTIC ADAPTATION TO THE CHANGES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNOLOGIES AND POLICIES

CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIOS

NOVEMBER 2008

ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR

Source: US Geological Survey

THE GOAL: Identify the physical, social and economic conse-quences of major earthquakes in California, so that end users can identify what they can change now—before the earthquake —to avoid catastrophic impacts after the earthquake.

• The Bay Area straddles the boundary between the North American and Pacific tectonic plates. • Much of the stress release is on the San Andreas fault, but some of it is relieved by the Hayward fault and other smaller parallel faults.

• A Hayward fault earthquake is likely to be one of the nation's biggest natural disasters.

• A Hayward fault quake damages homes, schools, senior centers, hospitals, businesses and the campus of UC Berkeley and impacts 7 million people.

• A M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will cause an estimated $210 billion dollars in damage.

• The region's transportation infrastructure and water delivery systems will likely lose some or all of their function for days to weeks.

• The M7.8 ShakeOut earthquake will cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion losses. • These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs for buildings and lifelines.

• The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because much more retrofitting can still be done.

MAIN INSIGHTS FROM THE CA EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS

• DISASTER PLANNING IS INCOMPLETE WITHOUT REALISTIC INTEGRATION OF THE PAST WITH THE PRESENT