LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays,...

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

Transcript of LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays,...

Page 1: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

THE CARIBBEANPART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

Page 2: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithospheric-mantle collision-zone inter-actions cause VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

Page 3: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASINDISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASINDISASTERS IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRAD-ATION

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

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GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES

Page 5: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

ACTIVE VOLCANOES

Page 6: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

Page 7: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

The Caribbean: long referred to as the West

Indies, includes more than 7,000 islands; of these, 13

are independent island countries

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ISLANDS POSSESSING MINOR VOLCANIC FEATURES

• Aruuba, Barbados, Bahamas, Bonaire, Cayman Islands, Saint Croix, and Antigua

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ISLANDS POSSESSING RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES

• Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Jamaica, ,Dominica, Montserrat, Saba, Saint Kitts, Saint Lucia, Saint Thomas, Saint John, Tortola, Grenada, Saint Vincent, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Trinidad and Tobago

Page 10: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

ELEMENTS OF RISK AND DISASTER

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THE CARIBBEAN’S VOLCANOES

• The present dozen active volcanoes on or near the Caribbean are restricted to the Lesser Antilles

Page 12: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

THE BEST KNOWN HISTORIC ERUPTIONS

• The best known are:oufriere on Guadeloupe, Mount Pelee on Martinique (well-known for its disastrous 1902 eruption and nuee ardente destroying St. Pierre and killing some 28,000 people), Kick'Em Jenny, a submarine volcano north of Grenada, and a series of eruptions beginning in 1995 on Montserrat.

Page 13: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK RISK

ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO ELEMENTS OF VOLCANO RISK RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

Page 14: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

THE VOLCANO HAZARDS

ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

Page 15: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• VERTICAL PLUME

• ASH AND TEPHRA

• LATERAL BLAST

• PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

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VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• LAVA FLOWS

• LAHARS

• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)

• “VOLCANIC WINTER”

Page 17: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION

INTERACT WITH A CARIBBEAN NATION’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION

INTERACT WITH A CARIBBEAN NATION’S COMMUNITIES

Page 18: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., a volcanic eruption,...) intersect at a point in space and time.

Page 19: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

Page 22: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for early threat identification and coordinated local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

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THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a timely and effective manner to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations.

Page 24: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

Page 25: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

EXAMPLES OF PAST VOLCANO DISASTERS

MONTSERAT

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SOUFRIERE HILLS: 1995 and following

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SOUFRIERE HILLS ERUPTION

Page 28: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

SOUFRIERE HILLS ERUPTION

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SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO, MONTSERAT: 1995 TO PRESENT

• The capital, Plymouth, was buried by ash and eventually evacuated.

• 2,000-3,000 still remain on the island.

Page 30: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

IMPACTS

• Numerous evacuations followed by temporary resumptions made normal life impossible.

• Plymouth, which was eventually destroyed, was unable to function effectively as the capital.

Page 31: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANO DISASTER IS

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE ALTERNATIVE TO A VOLCANO DISASTER IS

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

Page 32: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

CARIBBEAN CARIBBEAN NATION’S NATION’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

CARIBBEAN CARIBBEAN NATION’S NATION’S

COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• VOLCANO HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

VOLCANO RISK VOLCANO RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

VOLCANO DISASTER VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

Page 33: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS (PDA’s) IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

Page 34: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GEOEYE) THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTIFICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

Page 35: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES EARLY WARNING IS ESSENTIAL FOR EVAC-UATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

Page 36: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

Page 37: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMING VOLCANO

DISASTER RESILIENT

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION FOR BECOMING VOLCANO

DISASTER RESILIENT

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DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE

• PROTECTION

• CONTROL

• AVIATION SAFETY

• PURPOSE

• PROTECTION

• CONTROL

• AVIATION SAFETY

• TECHNIQUE

• DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH

• LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS

• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

• TECHNIQUE

• DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH

• LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS

• MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION

Page 39: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE

• URBAN PLANNING

• EVACUATION

• PURPOSE

• URBAN PLANNING

• EVACUATION

• TECHNIQUE

• MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS; ASH DISTRIBUTION

• COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN

• TECHNIQUE

• MAPS: LAVA AND/OR LAHAR FLOW PATHS; ASH DISTRIBUTION

• COMMUNITY EVACUATION PLAN

Page 40: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE

• COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR OF A SPECIFIC HAZARD

• PURPOSE

• COMPUTER MODELS OF A SPECIFIC VOL-CANO, OR OF A SPECIFIC HAZARD

• TECHNIQUE• MONITORING TO

CONSTRUCT AN ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO; HAZARD ZONES

• TECHNIQUE• MONITORING TO

CONSTRUCT AN ERUPTION HISTORY OF A VOLCANO; HAZARD ZONES

Page 41: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR VOLCANOES

• PURPOSE

• TEMPORARY SHELTERS

• PURPOSE

• TEMPORARY SHELTERS

• TECHNIQUE

• SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES

• TECHNIQUE

• SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES

Page 42: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESEMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

Page 43: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR

VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE

• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WIND DIRECTION)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS

• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WIND DIRECTION)

• WARNING SYSTEMS

• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO

• COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO

• HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• HAZARD

ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT

• DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO

• COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO

• HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• HAZARD

ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT

Page 44: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

INSITU AND SATELLITE MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES

.

Page 45: LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS THE CARIBBEAN PART 4: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia,

ALTHOUGH INFREQUENT, A VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INEVITABLE

ALTHOUGH INFREQUENT, A VOLCANIC ERUPTION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS INEVITABLE

• ---SO, DON’T WAIT FOR ANOTHER REMINDER OF THE IMPORTANCE OF BECOMING VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENT.