Post on 23-Jan-2018
1Luminary Labs | June 2017
in pursuit ofREALITY
Kate Machtiger & Michelle ShevinLuminary Labs | June 2017
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Since the earliest cave paintings, humans have tried to represent their reality.
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With each new tool, the accuracy of this representation has improved:
seeing believingexperiencing
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Augmented realityA blending of virtual and real life, allowing users to interact with virtual elements in the real world (also known as mixed reality).
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Virtual realityA fabricated, immersive virtual world, isolated from the real world.
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The virtual and augmented reality market is growing.
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2016 revenue: $6 billion2020 revenue: $143 billion*
*per IDC estimates
Hardware, software, third-party applications, consulting services, and integration services.
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Many will tell you our virtual future is here...
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QUARTZ
VOGUE UK
BUSINESS INSIDER
THE GUARDIAN
FRESH BUSINESS THINKING
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PATENTLY APPLE
NEW YORK TIMES
THE VERGE
WALL STREET JOURNAL
RE/CODE
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Early adoption
Wide adoptionWe are here
Holdout adoption
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When the technology facilitates not just experience, but true belief:
seeing believingexperiencing
23Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
1780s
Panorama paintings drew patrons into a round room where they were surrounded by a floor-to-ceiling, 360-degree scene.
Art imitates life
24Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
The eyes play tricks
Dioramas allowed the audience to stay in one place while the scenery moved in front of them. Lighting effects simulated movement and the passage of time.
1820s
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New contraptions affronted the senses, but barriers between virtual and real remained.
27Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
What’s your vector, Victor?
As new modes of transportation proliferated, simulators emerged as training tools. Valves and pumps offered airplane pilots realistic dashboard readings, while model cars measured drivers’ reaction times.
1920s
28Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
Watch n’ sniffThe Sensorama offered a new paradigm of “realism” in entertainment, bringing sight, sound, smell, and temperature together to create an entirely artificial immersive experience. However, the project failed to capture the interest of the movie industry, and ceased before it could reach the masses.
1950s
29Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
Hooked on a feelingThe first head-mounted display, Ivan Sutherland’s “sword of Damocles” hung precariously from the ceiling. The contraption allowed the visuals—a floating cube within a wireframe room—to shift with head movements.
1960s
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Body languageComputer scientist Jaron Lanier founded VPL, the first business to sell VR products. Their motion-tracking gloves and data suits offered a way to interact with virtual elements through movements and gestures.
1980s
31Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Dr. Waldern/Virtuality Group - Dr. Jonathan D. Waldern
Let the games beginThe first major commercial VR devices, Virtuality headsets, joysticks, and gloves used magnetic tracking to simulate movements within a gaming environment, offering a new level of 3D immersion for techies and arcade goers.
1990s
32Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user jdlasica
I am therefore iPod
The MyVu capitalized on video’s newfound portability, allowing users to watch iPod videos projected in front of their eyes. It roughly simulated the experience of watching a large-screen TV.
2006
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Glass houses
Projecting an interactive display in front of the eyes, Google Glass supported tasks like taking photos or checking messages. But the product failed to gain traction with users and privacy fears scared away the public.
2013
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A range of technologies begin to convince people of the validity of alternate realities.
36Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia
Was it all a dream?
Second Life’s avatar-driven experience went beyond pure entertainment, letting people craft alternate lives in a full-fledged virtual world. With its own currency, brands, and social interactions, Second Life came to supplant reality for engrossed users.
1990s – 2000s
37Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user Rafael Valentim
Hype machines
The Oculus Rift ushered in a new era of VR hype with a step change in headset technology. Through motion tracking and powerful image displays optimized for human eyes, the device allowed users to lose themselves in a nearly-realistic 3D world.
2014 – 2015
38Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user woodleywonderworks
On the road to Viridian CityGlobal AR phenomenon PokémonGo sent millions of smartphone users in pursuit of virtual characters superimposed onto real places. Its popularity offered a glimpse into the market potential for engaging AR experiences.
2016
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Form follows function
As we develop the power to make virtual experiences more believable, it’s time to go beyond entertainment and serve real needs. One early effort in this area is the EdSim Challenge, which seeks VR/AR simulations that will prepare America’s students for the future workforce.
2017
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Less nauseaBetter blending of “virtual” and “real” will help combat motion sickness. Even adding a virtual “nose” has been shown to make a big difference.
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Lower costs High-quality VR headsets still cost hundreds of dollars. But over the next few years, Tracticaestimates that prices will decline 15% per year.
$
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More portability Today’s devices are often tethered or bulky. Lighter mobile devices with better resolution and battery life will generate new use cases and improve the value proposition.
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Addition of social elements Most experiences are currently solitary. Social capabilities will uncover new applications for VR/AR and encourage more prolonged use.
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Better exploration of safetyWearing an isolating headset can come with risks (e.g., walking into walls, tripping over tethers, losing your balance). Furthermore, scientists have yet to fully explore how VR experiences affect mental development.
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A few questions to ask yourself...
Can today’s technology address a real problem in my company?
Is my team or company strategy early-adopter or wait-and-see?
What would the technology need to look like before I invest?
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