Post on 10-Apr-2018
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
1/17
Ebtmk~ M{{i{{bil~ fg Kaebm~i Khml`i Kfl{enizel`
Ylkiz~mel~ei{ el Gy~yzi Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{
"Ebtmk~ fl Tmnnu Zeki Tzfnyk~efl el M{em"
Uyoe Bm{y~fbe =% !
Ceuf{he ^mcmhm{he :% !
Henif Hmzm{mpm :% !
mln Uyyzy Bm~{yfcm ;%
=%? Kil~iz gfz Ilwezflbil~ma [keilki el [me~mbm
:%? Lm~eflma El{~e~y~i gfz Ilwezflbil~ma [~ynei{
;%? Cuf~f Ylewiz{e~u
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
2/17
(Gek{hiz i~ ma,! (:449%%
El~zfnyk~efl E
"Ylkiz~mel~ei{ el ebtmk~ m{{i{{bil~"
@KBZKB
Ebtmk~ bfnia(Kzft bfnia!
pm~iz zi{fyzki bfnia! i~k,%
Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{ Fy~ty~{
Ebtmk~ m{{i{{bil~
(ETKK MZ>%
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
3/17
={~ Ciu ]yi{~efl
Hfp bykh ebtmk~ nfi{ kaebm~i khml`i hmwi
eg pi kfbtzihil{ewiau kfl{eniz ylkiz~mel~u el
gy~yzi kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{6
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
4/17
El~zfnyk~efl EE
" KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ "
He`h KF:kflkil~zm~efl
Kaebm~i khml`iIlhmlki thf~f{ul~hi{e{
tf{e~ewi li`m~ewiW[
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
5/17
:ln Ciu ]yi{~efl
E{ li~ iggik~ fg iaiwm~in KF: kflkil~zm~efl
tf{e~ewi fz li`m~ewi6
El ~hi :4:4{! :494{! mln :484{
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
6/17
Bi~hfn" Hfp ~f ~mci ylkiz~mel~ei{ el~f kfl{enizm~efl6"
[~it= Kmakyam~efl fgbya~e"ebtmk~{ ju
y{el` bya~e"kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{
[~it:
M{{ybel` ~hm~ imkh ebtmk~ e{i}ymaau tf{{ejai! pi kmakyam~i
{~m~e{~ekma bi~zek{,
Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl
Kaebm~i {kilmzef
Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl
Ebtmk~ bfnia
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Fy~ty~
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;, Tzfjmjeae~ei{
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
7/17
Kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{ (gzfb TKBNE%Kfyl~zu Bfnia lmbi M=J (=8 @KB{% M: (=> @KB{% J= (=0 @KB{%
Lfzpmu JKKZ"JKB:,4
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Gzmlki KLZB"KB;
@izbmlu IKHMB9&BTE"FB
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8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
8/17
Kzft bfnia
B"@MI_ bfnia Jm{in fl @afjma M`zf"Ikfaf`ekma _fli bfnia (@MI_"bfnia%
@MI_"bfnia pm{ Niwiaftin ju EEM[M mln GMF (Ge{khiz i~ ma,!
:44:%
pm{ y{in gfz ~hi m{{i{{bil~ fg `afjma gffn {ikyze~u el ETKK MZ>,
e{ fli fg bmel ~ffa{ y{in ju GMF gfz mlmau{i{ fg amln zi{fyzki{
Lybjiz fg hyl`iz (ETKK MZ>%
Bmlyma fg @MI_
GMF zitfz~
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
9/17
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
10/17
Wmaenm~efl fg B"@MI_
Mwizm`i ueian{ gfz =584{ ju M{eml kfyl~zei{Uimzau wmzemjeae~u el ueian{ el =584{ el M{em
Kfbtmze{fl fg ueian{ ji~piil {ebyam~efl mln fj{izwm~efl
4
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8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
11/17
Zi{ya~ E " pe~hfy~ KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ "
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
12/17
Zi{ya~ E " pe~hfy~ KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ "
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
13/17
Zi{ya~ EE " pe~h KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ "
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
14/17
Zi{ya~ EEE "Ebtmk~ fl M{em"
El ~hi :4:4{ Ae~~ai neggizilki el mwizm`i khml`i{ el tzfnyk~efl (MKT{% mbfl` [ZI[ {kilmzef{
^hi tzfjmjeae~ei{ fg tzfnyk~efl nikzim{i (Tz(KT14%% mzi he`h gfz maa [ZI[ {kilmzef{
El ~hi :494{ Tf{e~ewi mln li`m~ewi iggik~{ mzi el i}yeaejzeyb
El ~hi :484{
Amz`i neggizilki el MKT{ mln Tz(KT14%%{ mbfl` [ZI[ {kilmzef{, M: hm{ amz`i{~ mnwiz{i iggik~ ma~hfy`h M: hm{ ~hi amz`i{~ KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~
pe~hfy~ KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~ pe~h KF: giz~eaem~efl iggik~
M=J M: J= M=J M: J= M=J M: J=
MKT pe~hfy~ KF: iggik~ "9,: "7,; ">,: "8,7 "5,> "9,> "=7,8 "::,4 "8,>
MKT ";,; ">,9 ":,9 "4,; "4,5 4,: "9,4 "5,5 "4,9
[NKT ;,: ;,: ;,= ;,5 ;,0 ;,; 0,: 8,> >,8
Tz(KT14% 8;,; =44,4 07,9 >>,> 90,= 9:,5 0:,: 89,0 >0,=
=554{":494{ =554{":484{=554{":4:4{
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
15/17
Zi{ya~ EW Ebtmk~ ju Kfyl~zei{ "
Kfyl~zu M=J M: J= M=J M: J= M=J M: J=
Jml amni{h ":,8 "7,5 ";,4 ">,: "0,8 ";,0 "5,= "=>,9 ">,=
Jzylie Nmzy{{mamb 4,: "4,; 4,4 9,7 0,= >,; 8,; 7,> 9,:
Jhy~ml =,0 "=,> :,7 7,9 =9,8 ;,8 "=:,5 "8,; 9,0
Khelm "9,8 "0,= ";,> "9,: ";,8 ":,= "=4,4 "=;,= "9,0
Hfl` Cfl` ">,9 ";,4 "=,5 9,0 ==,> =,5 "4,0 ":,4 0,9
Elnfli{em "4,; ":,5 "=,9 9,9 ;,0 =,5 >,: ";,0 ;,0
Elnem ">,: ">,9 ";,> "4,9 "4,= 4,8 ";,4 ">,5 4,7
Kmbjfnem ":,8 "8,4 ";,; "4,9 ";,: 4,4 ":>,0 ">;,: "4,9
[ Cfzim 4,8 "=,4 :,; 9,0 7,4 :,0 :,9 "7,4 8,:
Amf{ ";,7 ":,9 "=,5 ;,> 4,0 =,; >,4 "4,7 :,4
Bumlbmz "=,: ":,; "=,= =,7 4,= =,: "4,9 ">,4 =,=
Bmamu{em 4,> "=,0 4,0 7,= 9,5 >,; 8,4 ;,> 7,>
Litma "0,0 "0,0 "7,= ":4,0 "=0,0 "=4,> ";>,7 ";8,0 "=8,0
Tmce{~ml =,: 4,0 :,; 0,5 5,4 9,8 0,0 7,8 8,=
Theaetteli{ ":,= "9,= "9,4 :,> ">,0 "=,5 ;,; ";,> "=,5
L Cfzim 9,7 9,5 0,4 ::,8 :4,7 =>,: :7,4 ::,7 ::,:
[el`mtfzi =,> "=,9 4,4 9,7 0,7 ;,; :,: "7,4 :,7
^hmeamln ":,9 ":,7 "=,0 "4,: ":,; =,: "8,: "=7,: "4,>
Im{~ ebfz ";,0 "=4,= "8,= 4,5 "7,; "=,9 =,7 ">,> =,7
Wei~lmb ";,0 ":,: ":,: :,; 4,7 4,> "==,0 ":4,0 "=,4
Omtml ;,7 4,4 :,= ;,4 ;,: >,: ":,0 "8,4 9,;
[ze Amlcm "=,; ;,= ;,4 0,8 ;,= 0,: 7,= >,= 8,8
^mepml >,7 0,5 9,= :>,0 :8,; =9,= ;:,= ;8,: =8,7
:4:4{ ( w{, =554{% :494{ ( w{, =554{% :484{ ( w{, =554{%
Bf{~ kfyl~zei{ el im{~ M{em hmwi li`m~ewi ebtmk~ el [ZI[ M:
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
16/17
[ybbmzu fg ~hi zi{ya~{ Ciu }yi{~efl{
Hfp bykh ebtmk~ nfi{ kaebm~i khml`i hmwieg pi kfbtzihil{ewiau kfl{enizylkiz~mel~u el gy~yzi kaebm~i6
E{ li~ iggik~ fg iaiwm~in KF: kflkil~zm~efl tf{e~ewi fz li`m~ewi6
Fyz ml{piz Li~ iggik~ fg iaiwm~in KF: kflkil~zm~efl el kfbtzihil{ewi kfl{enizm~efl fg
gy~yzi kaebm~i tzfoik~efl{ e{ li`m~ewi el ~hi :4:4{ mln :484{! mln limzau izf
el ~hi :494{, Bf{~ kfyl~zei{ el im{~ M{em hmwi li`m~ewi ebtmk~ el ~hi :484{ el [ZI[ M:
[y``i{~efl{ E~ e{ liki{{mzu ~f ~mci ebbinem~i mnmt~ewi mk~efl{ el ~hi limz gy~yzi!
zi`mznai{{ fg {fkef"ikflfbek niwiaftbil~,
Jikmy{i ~hi tzfjmjeae~ei{ fg tzfnyk~efl nikzim{i mzi he`h gfz maa [ZI[ {kilmzef{el ~hi :4:4{
^hi zinyk~efl fg KF: ibe{{efl el ~hi afl` ~izb hm{ m amz`i tf~il~ema ~fbe~e`m~i li`m~ewi khml`i{,
Amz i neggizilki el khml`i el tzfnyk~efl mbfl` [ZI[ {kilmzef{ el ~hi :484{
He`h KF: kflkil~zm~efl {kilmzef! M:! hm{ amz`i{~ mnwiz{i iggik~ el ~hi :484{!pheai afp KF: kflkil~zm~efl {kilmzef! J=! hm{ {bmaai{~ mnwiz{i iggik~ el ~hi
:484{,
8/8/2019 Impact Assessment of Climate Change Considering Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections-Impact on Paddy Rice Production in Asia_Masutomi
17/17
^hmlc ufy gfz ufyz m~~il~efl
uyoe,bm{y~fbeD`bmea,kfb