Post on 22-Mar-2020
OXFORD ECONOMICS
How we work with clients
June 2014
A complete decision-support service
Event-driven
analysis
Scenario
and modeling
services
Regularly-
updated
country and
industry
reports
Deep-dive
Databanks
On countries,
industries,
and cities
Track … … Analyze … … Forecast
Timely economic analysis and forecasts
Country Economic Forecasts
Analysis and forecasts on over 200 countries
Global Economic Databank
Long-term forecasts and trends for over 200
countries
Global Economic Model
A rigorous tool for forecasting and scenarios
Weekly Economic Briefings
Analysis of economic events in key markets
Global Trade Databank
A forecasts for world between 180 countries
Trade-by-Product Databank
Bilateral exports by product for 33 countries
Global Scenarios Service
Alternate global macro scenarios
Analysis of multiple scenarios for the global marketplace
Global Scenarios Service
Measuring global threats
or opportunities and their
impacts
Uses our model to
explore implications of
key risks to the world
economy
New Global Investment
Scenarios Service
assesses impact of
macro shocks on multiple
asset classes
Event-driven analysis and briefings
Global Macro Service
Event-driven research briefings
Weekly macro briefings
Data insights
At-a-glance chartbooks
Regularly updated country reports
Global economic databank
Outlooks under scenarios
Presentations and webinars
Direct access to economists
A complete global industry portfolio
Global Industry Forecasts
Quarterly analysis and forecasts, with monthly
updates for nine industries
By-Country Industry Forecasts
Quarterly production data, forecasts and charts for
each manufacturing sector in 68 countries
Global Industry Databank
10-year production forecasts and 30-year historical
trends for 100 sectors in 68 countries
Global Industry Model
An integrated forecasting model for 100 sectors
across 68 key countries
Commodity Price Forecasts
Price trends and forecasts for 26 commodities
Tourism Decision Metrics
10-year forecasts and data for 180 countries-- 40,000
indicators with purpose of trip and spend
Deep coverage of 100 industrial sectors, including:
Aerospace
Agricultural machinery
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Agro-chemicals
Basic metals
Castings
Chemicals
Clothing and leather goods
Commercial building
Construction
Coke
Consumer electronics
Domestic appliances
Electrical machinery and apparatus
Electric fittings
Electrical engineering
Electricity, gas and water
Electronic engineering
Extraction
Food, beverages and tobacco
Furniture
Investment goods
Iron and steel
Machine tools
Man-made fibers
Mechanical engineering
Metal goods and products
Motor vehicles, bodies and parts
Motors, generators and transformers
Non-ferrous metals
Non-metallic minerals
Nuclear fuel
Office equipment
Other chemicals
Other electrical equipment
Other general purpose machinery
Other special purpose machinery
Other transport equipment
Paints and varnishes
Paper, printing and publishing
Petroleum
Pharmaceuticals
Precision, medical and optical equipment
Residential building
Rubber and plastics
Semiconductors
Ships, rolling stocks
Soaps, detergents and other
Telecoms equipment
Textiles, leather and clothing
Travel and tourism
Transport equipment
Weapons and ammunition
Wood and wood products
A comprehensive and unique database of city forecasts
African Cities & Regions
Forecasts for 96 locations across Africa
Asian Cities & Regions
Regularly updated forecasts for
35 locations
China Cities & Regions
Data and forecasts for more than
300 locations
European Cities & Regions
Data and forecasts for 2,000 locations
Latin American Cities & Regions
Data and forecasts for 32 locations
North American Cities & Regions
Data and forecasts for 32 locations
UK Cities & Regions
Data and forecasts for over 450
Local Authority Districts
Oxford can support a wide range of business analysis
Our team of economists and specialists deploy a rich array of quantitative and qualitative
research techniques. Thanks to our multi-disciplinary culture and wide access to experts,
executives and policy-makers we can dig deep into business, economic, industry, financial,
labour, regulatory, and social issues confronting international organisations.
Market sizing
Help identify key markets around
the world and size the opportunity
for your products and services
Scenario planning
Assess the impact of potential
economic, political or financial
shocks on your revenue, costs and
market exposure
Impact analysis
Gauge how a change to a government
policy or emerging macro development
will affect your business
Stress testing
Conduct stress testing and reverse
stress testing. Financial firms can use
the model to run CCAR scenarios to
stress test balance sheets
Forecasting
Enable you to correlate economic
drivers to your business so that you
can forecast sales performance
Thought leadership
Drawing on an array of research
methods, we create must-have
decision-support
OXFORD
ECONOMICS
We conduct economic impact studies that
assess the economic contribution of a
sector, company or investment.
We quantify the impact via four channels:
Direct impacts: jobs, output and fiscal
contributions.
Indirect impacts: employment and
output via purchases from a company’s
supply chain.
Induced impacts: jobs and
output from spending of direct
and indirect employees.
Catalytic impacts: the
benefits to performance in
other sectors.
Economic impact analysis
Our forecasting models enable us to tailor analysis to specific customer needs. We can
forecast product demand, industrial trends, economic conditions and business performance
on a global, national or city basis.
Global forecasting and market sizing
In these volatile times, unexpected shocks can destroy
profits, disrupt supply chains and upend business
models.
That is why executives are building scenario analysis
into their strategic thinking.
Our global models provide the ideal framework to
explore alternative scenarios such as a China banking
crisis, Eurozone deflation, and increased capital flow
from emerging markets.
Scenarios and stress testing
Stress scenarios for a multinational insurance firm
Oxford runs CCAR stress tests following the Fed’s November
release of stress scenarios. Each quarter, scenarios are run through
the Global Economic Model. Oxford produces a detailed scenario
report and data to the client’s specification showing the impacts on
world economies.
Thought Leadership
Quantitative analysis
Forecasting, modeling, benchmarking
and scenario analysis.
Management research
Executive surveys, interviews, expert
panels and advisory boards.
Insightful publications
Engaging executives through white
papers, newsletters and articles.
Meetings and presentations
Stimulating ideas through peer group
interchange and presentations.
Web publishing and social media
Research hubs, infographics, interactive
forums, analytical tools and microsites.
Monitoring key developments
Oxford worked together with a US
conglomerate to develop a monthly
economic indicators dashboard.
This report gives thorough
economic and industry analysis on
all regions and key countries for
their core business groups.
The company uses this information
for near-term internal planning as
well as to support quarterly sales
calls and meetings with current and
potential investors. 1 © 2014 3M. All Rights Reserved.Strategy & Corporate Development
Global summary
Positives
PMIs mostly firm in developed world (1)
US tapering offset by policy ease in Eurozone, Japan
Strengthening business investment a likely theme for the
new year in the US and Germany
German Bundesbank sees strengthening recovery
Patch of soft US data now in the past, seen as a blip
Key Indicators
World trade susceptible to setbacks going into 2014
Global growth on the upCommodity prices flat as can be
Global GDP:
2013: +2.2%
2014: +2.8%
Global IP:
2013: +1.7%
2014: +3.9%
Negatives
Veering between risk off/risk on trade for Emergers
Financial stresses re-emerging in China, growth easing,
PMI in contraction zone
Even sturdy Emergers such as Chile being affected by
capital outflows
Likely sanctions, relative isolation, to hit Russian growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
020406080
100120140160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Global 2: Energy and metal pricesUS$ / barrel
Source : Wall Street Journal/IMF/Oxford Economics
Metals prices (RHS)
West Texas Intermediate (LHS)
2005 = 100
48.5
53.2 53.3
55.5
53.2
4446485052545658
China Eurozone Global Japan USA
Global 1: Purchasing Manager's IndexIndex score (above 50 = expansion)
Source : Markit
*
*Indicate trend direction from 3 month MA
Global PMIs on broad uptrend
2.8 2.62.2
1.81.6
2.02.4
2.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4
Global 4: Global GDP growth% change year-on-year
Source : Oxford Economics
-20-15-10-505
101520
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Global 3: World export growth% change year-on-year
Source : Oxford Economics
F'cast
Leading sales indicators for an alcoholic beverages company
Developing leading
indicators
Oxford identified the top
five indicators that most
closely predict future sales
conditions for a European
beverages company.
A custom model applies
weights to each factor,
producing a 6-month view
so that the company can
adjust their strategy.
Hypertherm’s sales forecasting model
Correlating sales to economic trends
For Hypertherm, a US precision tools
manufacturer, Oxford produces sales forecasts
for 9 product lines across 5 regions. These
forecasts and circulated to their business units
to inform sales and production planning.
An excel-based model using Oxford’s macro
and industry forecasts generates product sales
projections for Hypertherm’s products. The
model was created by correlating Hypertherm’s
sales with key economic drivers. The tool
allows input of alternative assumptions and
comparison with the central forecast.
A detailed forecast report outlines the macro
and sectoral background and traces out the
implications for the forecast of Hypertherm’s
products and the risks they face.
Economic impact analysis for Rolls Royce
Measuring total business impact
We worked with Rolls Royce to provide
evidence showing the value of their business to
the UK government.
To measure the full value that Rolls Royce
generates, we analyzed four types of impacts:
Direct -- employment, tax revenue and other
direct economic activity.
Indirect -- employment and economic activity
supported via the supply chain.
Induced -- economic activity by the
expenditure of those employed.
Catalytic -- improved productivity and
performance in other parts the economy.
Sales and production for light vehicles
In conjunction with our partner, LMC
Automotive, we provide forecasts for
global sales of light vehicles (up to 6 tons).
Along with our baseline forecast, we also
predict production and sales levels under
four timely and pertinent alternative
economic scenarios, such as a China
shadow banking crisis, or a slow down in
emerging markets.
The tool provides seven-year light vehicle
production forecasts by manufacturer,
make, model, platform and assembly.
Indexing labor supply and demand for Hays
+
Global skills index
We developed an index for Hays, a
recruitment firm, to show the efficiency of
skilled labor around the world. The index
identifies imbalances between the supply
and demand of skilled labor.
For each market, we ranked seven key
categories and combined them into a
country scorecard:
Education flexibility
Labor market participation
Labor market flexibility
Talent mismatch
Overall wage pressure
Wage pressure in high-skill industries
Wage pressure in high-skill
occupations
An index of key metrics for the Worldwide Web Foundation
Web impact index
Oxford Economics helped to
develop a pioneering Web
Index for Tim Berners-Lee’s
Worldwide Web Foundation.
This is an interactive tool for
measuring the Web’s growth,
utility, and impact on people
and nations.
Oxford Economics relied on its
global network of economists
and analysts to provide input
into the 80 country models
behind the ranking tool.
Strategic workforce planning for a consumer goods firm
Talent gap analysis
In these times of business
transformation and demographic
change, companies need to assess
the impact of their long-term
strategies on talent needs.
To help a well-known consumer
goods firm analyze trends in
Europe, Oxford Economics
compared internal talent
segmentation and forecasted
trends against expected shifts in
the supply and demographics of
talent in 8 key countries.