How Not To Be Wrong

Post on 15-Apr-2017

127 views 1 download

Transcript of How Not To Be Wrong

When Am I Going To Use This?

The Missing Bullet Holes

Linearity

Inference

The dead salmon study

Expectation

If ________ is exciting, you are doing it wrong.

RegressionTriumph of Mediocrity vs. Galton’s Ellipse

Existence

More people want tax cut.

But no category can be cut

Election

The American Way: Bush Wins

But More people prefer Gore

Borda’s RuleScore 2,1,0

Borda’s Rule

Score 2,1,0

Solution: Instant Run-of

Australian and VermontInstant Run-off

Lef Right

Center

American way: W

Instant Run-of: M

Head-to-Head: K

There is no such thing as public opinion!

How Not to Be Wrong?

Just Listen to YourWife!