How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect? · How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect? ... Issue* ADSL1/2+...

How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect?

John M. Cioffi (also W. Abbott, W. Lee, T. Cil, & G. Ginis)

CEO/COB ASSIA

(Professor Emeritus, Stanford EE)

Hot Interconnects August 27, 2014 (Google, Mt. View)

•  World leader: broadband-access optimization & diagnosis

–  Reduce service disruptions, blocky or sticky video, etc. –  Used on 80M internet connections globally

•  Virtualization of the broadband connection !  All software & services

!  Analysis

!  Optimization

!  Wireless or fixed & speeds

ASSIA Company Intro

Brazil

Latin America ME&A Asia

North America

Hungary

Europe

Jiangsu

+3 provinces

Germany

2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Columbia

Argentina

•  Does FAST make us happy? –  1 Gbps or 100 Mbps (or 10 Mbps)?

–  Are “high” wireless or wireline speeds shared with too many others?

–  Confused by fiber, G.fast Gigabit DSLs, DOCSIS 3.1, LTE-A? •  $$$?

HOT Interconnect à happy consumer

Content

•  Or HOT on what we’d like to do? –  Content (favorite show, game …)

–  Device (where) they view it

–  Video looks good (no stop/sticky or loss)

–  Help when they need it (with no hassle)

–  Price

•  A HOT Key: Stability •  Consistent availability of desired apps

–  DATA: internet slow/out > 5% of the time, consumer complaints "#

–  VIDEO: internet slow/out > 1% of the time, consumer complaints "#

–  Ave speed or Ave peak speed is almost meaningless •  See FCC “Sam Knows” (unfortunately ignores tails = consumer happiness)

“Internet of Things” Already more devices than people

It’s HARDER and HARDER to be HOT!

•  571M Private Wi-Fi Hot Spots

•  A US family of four has 10 connected devices in the home, 25 in 2017, 50 in 2022

•  16 Billion connections/devices 2014

•  Number of total devices expected to grow to over 40 billion by 2020

Device Trends

679M fixed-line internet connections

ABI Research

How many interconnects are “cold”?

Instability: Combination of speed variation, packet errors, outages, consumer calls/complaints, the type of app running

•  Based on 90-95% distributions –  Meaning these fractions of customers are seeing worst case 5-10% daily or more frequent

Instability based on field measurements

connec%on Nominal Best (managed) Speed

Fiber (PON) 16% 6% 90 Mbps

Cable 20% -‐-‐-‐ 15 Mbps

ADSL2+ 15% 7% 10 Mbps

VDSL2 18% 7% 25 Mbps

Vec VDSL 45% 8% 75 Mbps

Cable 20% -‐-‐-‐ 15 Mbps

ADSL2+ 15% 7% 10 Mbps

VDSL2 18% 7% 25 Mbps

Vec VDSL 45% 8% 75 Mbps

Wi-‐Fi (11g) 50% 15% 10 Mbps

Speed Variation (peak-to-ave) à cools off

Source Ra5o

FCC 2013 Report (ave) 80%

1.2 : 1 2 :1

•  BB access connect variation

Single media Fiber, coax, wireless

Router (or PON or cable)

waiting queue

•  Sharing Prob (issue sometimes)

Source Ra5o

1.2 : 1 2 :1

Akamai 2014 ave of 100% (over all)

Source Ra5o

1.2:1 2:1

Akamai 2014 ave of 100% (over all)

ASSIA DSLs (95%) DSL’s 80%

4:1 1.3:1

Comparisons of Bandwidth

•  Neighborhood of 20 homes/units

–  If each receives on a separate connection 100 Mbps, then there is 2 Gbps of bandwidth to the neighborhood

–  If each shares a single connection with 1Gbps, then the speed when all are active is 50 Mbps

–  Which is better?

•  Consumers want consistent use of their favorite applications: this suggests the guaranteed 100 is best

–  And there is a Wi-Fi way to share the “extra Gbps” (later in this talk)

•  Orange Fiber – my house, Paris, 20 Oct 2013, 18:45

Don’t believe fiber always solves

•  7:05 am, next morning –  Game last night looked bad –  My DSL always ran 6 Mbps

Where is the cold interconnect?

Routers (DSL, WiFi) and Hubs, Set-‐Top-‐Boxes, Media Players DSLAM

Aggrega5on Network

Broadband Network Gateway

Home Network (Wi-‐Fi or wiring)

Access Network Fiber/xDSL, coax

Edge Network BRAS/CDN

Core Network Big routers

Increasingly likely to affect hotness

Is it Fair (fast, slow, …)?

“Cloud”

Is the desired app working?

Some Supporting Wi-Fi data

Neighborhood (same supplier) of 300 AP’s 3000 devices

Measurement

Measure to a server, which one?

“Cloud”

•  Accurate? –  Does it flood link (knock out others)? –  Does it depend on server? –  Throughput? –  Worst-case 90%?

•  Helpful? –  If low, then what?

•  Equipment provides instantaneous measurement of raw bit rate

–  Not throughput –  Often VERY inaccurate or done with “hog” best-case

settings –  What if something changes?

•  Wi-Fi router reported bit rates cannot be trusted (at all)

–  Computation of actual speed from reported parameters is highly complex optimization program

–  Does not account for crosstalk from other access points

Let the Equipment Report?

Cloudcheck Enables Holistic Home Network Management and Self Care

Cloudcheck Measurement

Wi-Fi speed (to

Fixed-line speed (to

Wireless speed (if available)

Edge/Core to app server

•  Is there a problem?

•  Is the problem Wi-Fi, fixed-line, wireless?

•  Can it be fixed automatically? –  Does the consumer want the fix?

•  Will they pay for it? •  After 30 day trial?

•  Is new equipment necessary? –  If so, what kind?

•  Is Expert help needed? –  On phone, on-line, in-home?

Some Access Net Measurement Points

•  Within the cloud –  Edge Routers/BRAS

–  Cache servers and CDN’s

–  Core routers

–  Servers

Wi-Fi “Hot” Spots and Problems

= Coverage (noise) & signal strength

Crosstalk

who controls phy

Wi-Fi Diagnostics

Issue 11g 11a 11n 11ac 11ad

Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐

•  Who needs Gbps on Wi-Fi if you knock out your neighbor (and they knock out you)? 11ac issue

Signal strength + -‐ + + -‐-‐ Collisions intra LAN inter LAN

-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +

-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +

Channels -‐-‐ + + + ++ Bonding (more collisions)

+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +

+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

Power/overlap -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ -‐ +

-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +

+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

Power/overlap -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ -‐ + Data rate/codes -‐-‐ -‐ + + +

-‐-‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐

-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐

+ -‐

-‐ +

+ + -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

Power/overlap -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ -‐ + Data rate/codes -‐-‐ -‐ + + + Spa%al MIMO -‐-‐ -‐-‐ + ++ +

How much Fiber ($) vs copper (¢)

Fiber (FTTN) 0~3Km ADSL2+

8~20 Mbps $150/sub

Fiber (FTTN, FTTC) 0~1Km Vectored VDSL2

ELIMINATES CROSSTALK

50~100 Mbps $300~500/sub

Fiber (PON) 10-‐100 Mbps ? $2500-‐5000/sub

0~3Km ADSL2+

8~20 Mbps $30~50/sub

100~500 Mbps $1400/sub

0~200m G.fast

Fiber (FTTC, FTTB)

Distribu5on Terminal

Feeder Plant

Distribu5on Plant

Drop Plant

splitter

0~6Km ADSL

1~8 Mbps $30~50/sub

FTTH 1 Gbps ? $3000-‐8000/sub

Last “Mile/km/hm/da-m” Copper issues

Shared

fiber Internet

(“telco”)

Content

OLT/DSLAM

DSL’s and Crosstalk

Crosstalk (or sharing on coax/fiber)

Home NOISE into DSL

(its huge)

Home noises – they’re bad and they vary

Home noises – they’re bad and they vary Length of copper (versus fiber)

Home noises – they’re bad and they vary Length of copper (versus fiber) Where are noises, taps, splices

FTTx/DSL Diagnostics

Issue ADSL1/2+ VDSL2 VVDSL G.fast FTTH

line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + +

•  Who needs Gbps on FTTx if you knock out your neighbor (and they knock out you)?

line length -‐-‐ -‐ -‐ + + Noises -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐-‐ ++

Crosstalk (or sharing)

-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐

taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐

taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

splices -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐

taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

splices -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐ Problem loca%on -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐

-‐ -‐-‐ ++ + -‐-‐

taps -‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐-‐ -‐

splices -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐ Problem loca%on -‐-‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐-‐ -‐ -‐-‐ Bad equipment -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐ -‐-‐

HFC (Hybrid Fiber Coaxial)

Source : Wikipedia.org

500~2000 home sharing $ Becoming 50~200 for a better service (Extend fiber further as in DSL) Share 38 down/9~27 up Mbps (DOCSIS 1.x~2.0) $ Migrating to 304/108Mbps (DOCSIS 3.0) $ 10/2 Gbps for DOCSIS 3.1 (must change ampls)

Cocktail Party Effect

TALK LOUD Sorry, can’t hear,

Talk louder

I NEED TO TALK VERY

•  Solution: All speak politely at low volume (lower power) –  All send more information (more power and/or higher data rate)

•  This is how dynamic management works with DSLs, Wi-Fi, sharing

•  Each group of people/lines controls itself politely ==> competition

OK, I’ll SHOUT

•  Is backhaul congested?

•  Caching/multi-cast?

•  Streaming, gaming, … ?

•  Bandwidth to core?

•  Peering arrangements?

•  Is the server just too slow?

Edge/Core Issues

Optimization

Basic Optimization and Diagnosis

Diagnos5cs Loop

%  Diagnos5cs ●  copper ●  DSL

%  Upgrade ident.

Consumer OSS, customer care

Reprofiling Loop

%  Automa5c connec5on repair ●  QoS target ●  rate target

Con5nuous collect

All connec5ons

Access Network

What can be optimized dynamically?

Control (“knob”) goal

Data speed & Power Not too much, not too liele

MIMO Eliminate/reduce xtalk

Channel/frequencies Reduce crosstalk, avoid noise

Codes Correc%on without too much delay

Priority Fairness rela%ve to payment/need

Noise Cancelling Reduce home noises’ effect

Resend parameters Minimize collisions

Opt Server

Internet Connection

controls

feedback

Typical Fixed-line Dynamic Management Fixed Broadband Complaints per 1000 customers/

connections – October 2010 –December 2012, by Quarter

Source : Ofcom on UK fixed broadband providers

Good DM

Typical Field Wi-Fi Results (11n – 90%)

Before opt Ader opt

80% results (see improved speeds)

•  Can direct energy adaptively –  Not completely controllable in practice –  Will get some “spurious” lobes along with desired –  Accuracy is limited by number of antennas, spacing, and movement

•  Theoretically max bandwidth is increased by number of antennas •  802.11n is one user •  802.11ac allows 2-4 users (one for each “lobe”) •  Heaven help other AP’s users in the lobes

MIMO from box vendor standpoint

processor

Cloud Management of MIMO (7 SSIDs)

User 1 User 2 User 3 User 4

User 5 User 6

User 7 empty

User 1 User 2

Freq Channel

(4 chan’s)

Space Channel

(4 antennas)

•  Basically 16 slots (each say ~ 54 Mbps)

•  How a box vendor does it

•  Cloud managed –  multiple SSIDs

Vectored DSLs MISO (downstream)

•  Like “MIMO” in wireless •  Proposed, patented, Stanford 2001

•  ITU G.993.5 standard (2009) and G.Fast (2013)

Old DSLAM Port 1

Old DSLAM Port 2

crosstalk

“wireless”

Customer 1

Customer 2

Vectored DSLAM

Vectoring’s major issue: other noises

• Crosstalk removal “exposes” other noises –  Need management of stability

• Particularly true if home wiring involved –  G.FAST uses this wiring (SNR will decrease)

Noise A

NoiseB

Noise C Noise floor

Vectoring does not cancel A,B,C because they are not at transmit Antenna loca%on (only at receiver)

Crosstalk noise

Mitigate Non-Crosstalk Noise

Achieve high quality of experience Automa%cally reconfigure underperforming lines

Non-‐vectored Vectored

anaged

15% 45

Lines with poor quality

Detect if line is under-‐performing

Analyze individual line data

Apply new configura%on

for line

•  Software version of owning the hardware –  Differentiate all the way down to physical level

–  Software management of connection speed/stability

Software Unbundling: Smart Vectoring

DSL Booster

•  Use antennas at receiver –  Other wires or antennas –  Noises (not crosstalk) in the home will get into these antennas and line –  Must be tracked continuously and statistically from the cloud

•  Must cancel the noise causing instability

–  Avoid cancelling the DSL signal itself

Mul% Antenna Bump in wire 0

“wireless” DSL Sig

nal on line

Spurious Lobe

Noises A Booster

cloud server

Test # Noise Loop length (kd) Rate

W/o Booster Single ref Mul% ref

1 Broadband 4.5 3.2 13.7 18.9

2 Broadband + 5 narrowband (AM)

4.5 2.8 13.5 19.0

3 VDSL crosstalk 4.5 2.8 12.3 17.4

4 Broadband 9 1.2 7.1 8.0

5 VDSL crosstalk 9 1.2 5.4 5.8

DSL Booster results on difficult connections

•  Speed increase plus less variation

Some DSL Boosting in field (France)

•  Note the lines with huge variation (churn) disappear •  All achieved with latest/best DSL modem model

DSL Boosting Statistical

Speed Variation

USA Noise Variation (DSL) w/wo booster

Data rate varies widely Even for same length, And even for same connection

DSL/WiFi Gateway

IP Layer Bonding

Broadband Consumer

The Cloud (internet)

DSL/WiFi Gateway

LTE Path/BS

Management & Agg/Deag Server

•  Total data rate R1+R2+R3 –  Remember earlier example of extra 1 Gbps still yet to share –  This is how

•  Allows 100 Mbps to 1.1 Gbps PER Consumer (less sharing) •  Much cheaper than fiber to the customer, and sooner

Examples:

•  Example A (very low cost): –  LTE at 50 Mbps + 802.11g VDSL/WiFi at 54 Mbps == 100 Mbps

•  LTE may be shared •  54 Mbps Wi-Fi may be shared over a few devices

–  Not all are on the LTE spectra

•  Example B (low cost): –  3 VDSL+ 802.11n Wi-Fi at 108 Mbps each == 324 Mbps –  Sharing limited to 3 living units

•  Example C (medium cost) –  3 G.Fast + 802.11n Wi-Fi at 600 Mbps each == 1.8 Gbps –  Sharing limited to 3 living units

•  Example D Fiberhood FTTH (very high cost) –  1 fiber to each residence at 1 Gbps + 1 Gbps Wi-Fi 802.11ac –  Sharing limited to 1 living unit

•  Consumers would probably be very very happy on Option A –  And if offered today might switch to it from anything more expensive or slower

How “Hot” is Your Interconnect?

•  It can be pretty hot –  Cloud management will increase the temperature a lot!

•  Steps –  Diagnostics (like Cloudcheck)

–  Analysis (temporal, spatial, across users, networks)

–  Optimization of access links

•  This Cloud Management is what is needed, not replacing the physical connections

–  Its what the consumers really want

Back Up

jcioffi@assia-inc.com

xDSL Speeds Up with ASSIA opportunity

Source : TNO 2012

Bandwidth (bps)

G.fast

Vectoring VDSL

ADSL2+

ADSL2 ADSL

6Km 3Km 1500m 500m 200m

In Standardization

Commercially Deployed

FTTEx FTTC/B FTTdp

G.now/hn

More Speed - Means Unstable Connections

Core Internet

More Speed

20 Mbps

More Costs

More Calls

15 Mbps

Content

ASSIA Stabilizes Last Mile Connections

Service Provider

Core Internet

Makes Your Connection Run Faster and Smoother

Content

SOFTWARE & associated solutions

Return on 35euro/month (8 euro profit)

100 150 200 250 300 350

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37

•  3 year return on access investment –  About the limit for most telcos/investors

–  300€ is practical limit to invest for retention of existing subscriber (@8€ profit)

•  Examples:

–  AT&T iPhone subsidies about $400

–  DT FTTN is 300€/customer for 100 Mbps VDSL connection

•  DT reports 2000-4000€/customer for FTTH (concludes too expensive)

•  Pay more in mergers (2x – based on operational cuts possible)

•  Numericable purchase of SFR (higher profit > 8 euro) –  650 euro/customer ($1000)

Cumulative profit

months

Drivers for Vectored VDSL Cost Advantage

–  FTTC + Vectoring is significantly cheaper than FTTH and vectoring likely to add only 50-‐100 USD per line

Time to Market Advantage

–  Compe%%on from Cable Operator –  Less Civil Works compared to FTTH

Stable Standards on ASSIA patented vectored technology

2 Vectored Chip Providers already licensed (Ikanos & Lan%q), more soon

Operators move towards VDSL vectoring •  Deutsche Telekom-‐ September 2012 DT announced

vectored VDSL coverage to 24 million homes by 2017. –  ASSIA investor and customer

•  Telecom Italia-‐ September 2012, TI announced plans for FTTC to 6.1 million homes by end 2016. Belgacom, KPN, Swisscom in Europe all star%ng

•  AT&T-‐ November 2012 announced its Project VIP to extend U Verse FTTN coverage by 8.5 million homes by 2015, and 1 Gbps plans announced 2014.

–  ASSIA licensed AT&T on VVDSL in 2013

•  Australia – NBNCo, Sept 2013 elec%on turns on FTTN to replace earlier FTTH plans

•  Korea Telecom – now inves%ga%ng 200-‐500 Mbps DSLs for their FTTB deployment (20+M homes)

Market moves to deployment of Vectored VDSL [ASSIA invented VVDSL, licensed VVDSL, and manages VVDSL]

Fixed-Line Customers and Total

Source : Point Topic Data thru Q4-2013 published Q3-13, ASSIA analysis

Single media Fiber, coax, wireless

Router (or PON)

•  If all the single-media is less than sum of consumer bandwidths, then some users must wait (can be random) a long amount of time

–  1 Gbps divided over 20 residences x 5 users each = 10 Mbps

The multiplexing/priority-flow issue

waiting queue

How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect? · How “Hot” is your Inter-Connect? ... Issue* ADSL1/2+...

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