How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey

Business Out of Political Journalism and Science

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Recommended Resources

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Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

IFES Election Guidehttp://www.electionguide.org/

European Election Database (EED)http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/

Electographhttp://www.electograph.com/

Poll of Pollshttp://www.pollofpolls.no/

TV2 Partibarometerethttp://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/ http://www.slideshare.net/filipvanlaenen/

Why Bother?

3https://xkcd.com/386/

Why Bother?

Actually:

Lots of people are wrong,not only on the internet,but also on television, radio and in the newspapers…

4https://xkcd.com/386/

Disclaimer

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I'm an engineer, not a statistician

https://www.flickr.com/photos/polob818/3110877065/

Disclaimer

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I'm an engineer, not a statistician

● Terminology is most certainly wrong

● I may be doing some “monkey business” too…

https://www.flickr.com/photos/polob818/3110877065/

7https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/

Define “Monkey Business”

8https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/

Common Pitfalls

● Global margins of error

● Small differences blown out of proportions

● Scores around thresholds

● Seat distributions without margins of error

● Majority in votes or seats?

● Opinion poll outliers

Example

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Client: Vårt Land

Pollster: Norstat

Fieldwork: 23–29 March 2015

Published: 1 April 2015

Sample size: 961 respondents

Margin of error: N/A

http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

Above or Below the Threshold?

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Venstre: 3.8 %

⇒ CI(95%) = 2.7 – 5.2 %

⇒ P(V < 4 %) = 61 %

SV: 2.6 %

⇒ CI(95%) = 1.7 – 3.8 %

⇒ P(SV < 4 %) = 98.7 %

MDG: 4.3 %

⇒ CI(95%) = 3.2 – 5.8 %

⇒ P(MDG ≥ 4 %) = 71 %

http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

Who's Larger?

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MDG: 4.3 %

Venstre: 3.8 %

⇒ P(MDG > V) ≈ 71 %

SV: 2.6 %

⇒ P(MDG > SV) ≈ 97 %

⇒ P(V > SV) ≈ 93 %

http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

Who's Larger – in Seats?

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MDG: 4.3 %

⇒ CI(95%) = 3.2 – 5.8 %

⇒ CI(95%) = 1 – 10 seats

Venstre: 3.8 %

⇒ CI(95%) = 2.7 – 5.2 %

⇒ CI(95%) = 1 – 9 seats

SV: 2.6 %

⇒ CI(95%) = 1.7 – 3.8 %

⇒ CI(95%) = 0 – 2 seats

http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

Distribution of Seats

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Ap: 41.7 % 71 – 82 seats⇒

H: 22.3 % 35 – 46 seats⇒

Frp: 10.0 % 15 – 22 seats⇒

KrF: 6.5 % 9 – 15 seats⇒

Sp: 5.9 % 8 – 14 seats⇒

MDG: 4.3 % 1 – 10 seats⇒

V: 3.8 % 1 – 9 seats⇒

SV: 2.6 % 0 – 2 seats⇒

Rødt: 1.8 % 0 – 2 seats⇒

http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682

14https://www.flickr.com/photos/jdhancock/4816476075/

Free Data Sources

Upcoming and Past Elections

Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

15https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/

Upcoming and Past Elections

IFES Election Guide

http://www.electionguide.org/

16https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/

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Upcoming and Past Elections

European Election Database (EED)

http://www.nsd.uib.no/ european_election_database/

21https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/

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Opinion Poll Results

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Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

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Opinion Poll Results

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Electograph

http://www.electograph.com/

Norwegian Opinion Poll Results

TV2 Partibarometeret

http://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/

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Norwegian Opinion Poll Results

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Poll of Polls

http://www.pollofpolls.no/

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Election Results Forecasts

Electoral Calculus

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

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Election Results Forecasts

Elections Etc

http://electionsetc.com/

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46https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/

Introducing “SAPoR”

Why SAPoR?

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● More fun than using R

● Seat distributions

https://github.com/filipvanlaenen/sapor

https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/

Recommended Resources

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Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

IFES Election Guidehttp://www.electionguide.org/

European Election Database (EED)http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/

Electographhttp://www.electograph.com/

Poll of Pollshttp://www.pollofpolls.no/

TV2 Partibarometerethttp://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/ http://www.slideshare.net/filipvanlaenen/