How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science
-
Upload
filip-van-laenen -
Category
Data & Analytics
-
view
118 -
download
0
Transcript of How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science
![Page 1: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey
Business Out of Political Journalism and Science
1
![Page 2: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Recommended Resources
2
Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
IFES Election Guidehttp://www.electionguide.org/
European Election Database (EED)http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/
Electographhttp://www.electograph.com/
Poll of Pollshttp://www.pollofpolls.no/
TV2 Partibarometerethttp://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/ http://www.slideshare.net/filipvanlaenen/
![Page 3: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why Bother?
3https://xkcd.com/386/
![Page 4: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Why Bother?
Actually:
Lots of people are wrong,not only on the internet,but also on television, radio and in the newspapers…
4https://xkcd.com/386/
![Page 5: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Disclaimer
5
I'm an engineer, not a statistician
https://www.flickr.com/photos/polob818/3110877065/
![Page 6: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Disclaimer
6
I'm an engineer, not a statistician
● Terminology is most certainly wrong
● I may be doing some “monkey business” too…
https://www.flickr.com/photos/polob818/3110877065/
![Page 7: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Define “Monkey Business”
![Page 8: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Common Pitfalls
● Global margins of error
● Small differences blown out of proportions
● Scores around thresholds
● Seat distributions without margins of error
● Majority in votes or seats?
● Opinion poll outliers
![Page 9: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Example
9
Client: Vårt Land
Pollster: Norstat
Fieldwork: 23–29 March 2015
Published: 1 April 2015
Sample size: 961 respondents
Margin of error: N/A
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
![Page 10: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Above or Below the Threshold?
10
Venstre: 3.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 2.7 – 5.2 %
⇒ P(V < 4 %) = 61 %
SV: 2.6 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1.7 – 3.8 %
⇒ P(SV < 4 %) = 98.7 %
MDG: 4.3 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 3.2 – 5.8 %
⇒ P(MDG ≥ 4 %) = 71 %
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
![Page 11: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Who's Larger?
11
MDG: 4.3 %
Venstre: 3.8 %
⇒ P(MDG > V) ≈ 71 %
SV: 2.6 %
⇒ P(MDG > SV) ≈ 97 %
⇒ P(V > SV) ≈ 93 %
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
![Page 12: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Who's Larger – in Seats?
12
MDG: 4.3 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 3.2 – 5.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1 – 10 seats
Venstre: 3.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 2.7 – 5.2 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1 – 9 seats
SV: 2.6 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 1.7 – 3.8 %
⇒ CI(95%) = 0 – 2 seats
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
![Page 13: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Distribution of Seats
13
Ap: 41.7 % 71 – 82 seats⇒
H: 22.3 % 35 – 46 seats⇒
Frp: 10.0 % 15 – 22 seats⇒
KrF: 6.5 % 9 – 15 seats⇒
Sp: 5.9 % 8 – 14 seats⇒
MDG: 4.3 % 1 – 10 seats⇒
V: 3.8 % 1 – 9 seats⇒
SV: 2.6 % 0 – 2 seats⇒
Rødt: 1.8 % 0 – 2 seats⇒
http://www.vl.no/meninger/t%C3%B8ffe-hareide-holder-koken-1.348682
![Page 14: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14https://www.flickr.com/photos/jdhancock/4816476075/
Free Data Sources
![Page 15: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Upcoming and Past Elections
Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
15https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/
![Page 16: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Upcoming and Past Elections
IFES Election Guide
http://www.electionguide.org/
16https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/
![Page 17: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
![Page 18: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
![Page 19: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
![Page 20: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
![Page 21: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Upcoming and Past Elections
European Election Database (EED)
http://www.nsd.uib.no/ european_election_database/
21https://www.flickr.com/photos/adamkr/4592708889/
![Page 22: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
![Page 23: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
![Page 24: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
![Page 25: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
![Page 26: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
![Page 27: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Opinion Poll Results
27
Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
![Page 28: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
![Page 29: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Opinion Poll Results
29
Electograph
http://www.electograph.com/
![Page 30: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Norwegian Opinion Poll Results
TV2 Partibarometeret
http://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/
30
![Page 31: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
![Page 32: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
![Page 33: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
![Page 34: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Norwegian Opinion Poll Results
34
Poll of Polls
http://www.pollofpolls.no/
![Page 35: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
![Page 36: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36
![Page 37: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37
![Page 38: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38
![Page 39: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
39
![Page 40: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
40
![Page 41: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41
![Page 42: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
42
![Page 43: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
43
![Page 44: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Election Results Forecasts
Electoral Calculus
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
44
![Page 45: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Election Results Forecasts
Elections Etc
http://electionsetc.com/
45
![Page 46: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
46https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
Introducing “SAPoR”
![Page 47: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Why SAPoR?
47
● More fun than using R
● Seat distributions
https://github.com/filipvanlaenen/sapor
https://www.flickr.com/photos/azizul/11428653043/
![Page 48: How Free Data Can Drive Some of the Monkey Business Out of Political Journalism and Science](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032714/55aa7dce1a28abf16c8b4908/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Recommended Resources
48
Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
IFES Election Guidehttp://www.electionguide.org/
European Election Database (EED)http://www.nsd.uib.no/european_election_database/
Electographhttp://www.electograph.com/
Poll of Pollshttp://www.pollofpolls.no/
TV2 Partibarometerethttp://www.tv2.no/politikk/partibarometeret/#/ http://www.slideshare.net/filipvanlaenen/