Homeless and Housing Need Assessments

Helping Scottish local authorities assess their capacity to meet homelessness legislation

Dr. Andrew WaughBrussels

4 June 2010

• Homelessness and Housing Need Assessments

• The Scottish Example• Impact of implementing legislative changes across local

authorities• Testing effectiveness of policy interventions

• Conclusions

Overview

• Housing Need Assessments• project need for housing across all tenures into the future• Should take into account demand for homelessness• Often involves a large survey

• Homelessness is a subset of wider housing need?

• Can measure need arising from homelessness using the Waugh Model• Mathematical model of the homelessness and social housing

system• Don’t need a survey

Homelessness and Housing Need Assessments

The Scottish Example

Housing (Scotland) Act 2001

• Temporary Accommodation for all homeless households until discharge of duty

• Permanent accommodation

• Modernised Right to Buy

Homelessness etc. (Scotland) Act 2003

• Extension, then abolition of the priority need test by the end of 2012 – 'the 2012 target'

• Power replaces duty to investigate intentionality• Suspension of the local connection provision.

HomelessPriority Need Intentionality

Local Connection

• Number of temporary accommodation places needed

• Time spent in temporary accommodation

• Number and proportion of lets required by homeless households into the future

• Will all Local Authorities manage?

What will the impact be on...?

• Initially for six individual local authorities in Scotland– Renfrewshire, – South Ayrshire, – North Ayrshire, – Aberdeen, – Dumfries & Galloway – Stirling

• The Scottish Government – all 32 local authorities and also a national picture

Who has this work been done for?

The Waugh Model

Stock Model Homelessness System Model+

Supply Demand

local authority level

Local Authority (LA) Tenancy Dynamics

LA Core

LA Demo

terminationsRTBs

homeless lets

decants to RSL

other waiting list lets

decants to LA

terminations

Core stock – has a future

Demolition stock – needs to be pulled down

• Inputs (things we try to control)– The number of applications + assessments– Number of lets to homeless households

• Outputs (results)– Number of households in the system– Time spent in the system

Temporary accommodation

Homelessness System Model

applications

lets

Homelessness System Model

PriorityNeed

Non Priority

Local Authority

Temporary Accommodation = constant x (Assess +PN + NonPN)

RSLPrivate Lets

Other

Local Authority

Other

• Homelessness levels as at 2006/7• All landlords maintain fixed % of lets• New Build distributed as in last 3 years

Continue 2006/7 Position

Households in Temporary Accommodation

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hou

seho

lds

in T

empo

rary

Acc

omm

odat

ion

Historical Temporary Accommodation Projected Temporary Accommodation

10 053

Household Days in Temporary Accommodation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Hou

seho

ld D

ays

(mill

ions

)

• Massive growth in:– Number of households in temporary accommodation– Time spent in temporary accommodation– …Temporary accommodation budgets?

• Difficulty for Local Authorities• Bad for homeless people

• We need to avoid this happening

Continue 2006/7 Position

• Increase lets to avoid increase in temporary accommodation

• Modify Right to Buy• Make greater use of the private sector

– minimum of:• 20% of homeless outcomes or• 10% of lets in the PRS

• Increase prevention work further• Redistribute new build

Possible Actions and Policy Interventions

LAs only increase lets to avoid an increase in temporary accommodation

0%

10%

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100%Sh

etla

nd

Ren

frew

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East

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East

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t Lot

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Mor

ay

East

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Cla

ckm

anna

nshi

re

All social landlords increase lets to avoid an increase in temporary accommodation

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10%

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100%Sh

etla

nd

Ren

frew

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Inve

rcly

de

Gla

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City

Argy

ll &

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Scot

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Bord

ers

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an S

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Mid

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Sout

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Dun

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City

East

Ayr

shire Fife

Aber

deen

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Aber

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shire

East

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shire

Angu

s

Wes

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Stirl

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… and completely suspend RTB

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Argy

ll &

Bute

Ren

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Inve

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East

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All social landlords +Private Rented Sector increase lets to avoid an increase in temporary accommodation

0%

10%

20%

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80%

90%

100%Sh

etla

nd

Argy

ll &

Bute

Ren

frew

shire

Inve

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de

Gla

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City

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Mid

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ian

Dun

dee

City

Aber

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City

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an S

iar

East

Ayr

shire

Aber

deen

shire Fife

East

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shire

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s

Hig

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Ork

ney

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Prevention of 2.5 percent per annum…

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100%Sh

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nd

Mid

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an S

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Dun

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City

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City

East

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City

Fife

East

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shire

Aber

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shire

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...but with an increase of 2.5 percent per annum!

0%

10%

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100%R

enfre

wsh

ire

Shet

land

Inve

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ders

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City

Sout

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East

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shire

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Fife

Aber

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shire

East

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East

Dun

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Stirl

ing

Mor

ay

East

Lot

hian

Cla

ckm

anna

nshi

re

Redistributed New Build

Maximum % of all lets to homeless

Units completions required in

2013/14

50% 7,447

60% 3,955

70% 1,746

•Assume homelessness remains at 2006/7 levels

•Assume LAs and RSLs contribute same proportion of lets

•Assume no additional contribution from PRS

Redistributed New Build – 60%

0%

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100%R

enfre

wsh

ire

Shet

land

Gla

sgow

City

Inve

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de

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Bor

ders

Dun

dee

City

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re

Mid

loth

ian

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deen

City

East

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shire Fife

Argy

ll &

Bute

Aber

deen

shire

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an S

iar

Falk

irk

Stirl

ing

Hig

hlan

d

Wes

t Dun

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nshi

re

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fries

& G

allo

way

East

Lot

hian

Wes

t Lot

hian

Edin

burg

h

Angu

s

East

Dun

barto

nshi

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ckm

anna

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Sout

h La

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shire

Nor

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anar

kshi

re

Mor

ay

Ork

ney

Perth

& K

inro

ss

Nor

th A

yrsh

ire

East

Ren

frew

shire

Homelessness vs. wider Housing NeedComparison of Waugh Model (2011/12) and Bramley Model Results (2011)

0

200

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Abe

rdee

n C

ity

Dun

dee

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t Ayr

shire

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sgow

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rcly

de

Ren

frew

shire

Sco

ttish

Bor

ders

Shet

land

Wes

t Dun

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nshi

re

Cla

ckm

anna

nshi

re

Ork

ney

Angu

s

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an S

iar

Stirl

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Fife

Arg

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But

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Nor

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Sout

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Mor

ay

Nor

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East

Lot

hian

Abe

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nshi

re

Sout

h La

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shire

Dum

fries

& G

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way

Wes

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hian

Mid

loth

ian

Perth

& K

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ss

East

Dun

barto

nshi

re

East

Ren

frew

shire

Hig

hlan

d

City

of E

dinb

urgh

Uni

ts p

er y

ear

Waugh Bramley

Where we have been building

Baseline vs Bramley in 2011

0

200

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Aber

deen

City

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dee

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t Ayr

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irk

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sgow

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rcly

de

Ren

frew

shire

Sco

ttish

Bor

ders

Shet

land

Wes

t Dun

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nshi

re

Cla

ckm

anna

nshi

re

Ork

ney

Angu

s

Eile

an S

iar

Stir

ling

Fife

Arg

yll &

But

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Nor

th L

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Sou

th A

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ire

Mor

ay

Nor

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East

Lot

hian

Aber

deen

shire

Sout

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nark

shire

Dum

fries

& G

allo

way

Wes

t Lot

hian

Mid

loth

ian

Perth

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ss

East

Dun

barto

nshi

re

East

Ren

frew

shire

Hig

hlan

d

City

of E

dinb

urgh

Baseline Bramley

Conclusions

• Determine need arising from homelessness without a survey

• Argue to local councillors and others why the current position was unsustainable

• Assess which policy interventions, or combinations of intervention might help.

• Additionally, which interventions would be of very limited assistance.

• A strong evidence base to lobby the Scottish Government for increased funding

The benefit of using the Waugh Model for individual local authorities?

• Provided Ministers with an assessment of their commitment to implement the 2012 target using already available data

• Quantified the impact – more than just words• Provided evidence to argue for change:

– the Right to Buy– greater use of the private rented sector– allocation of new build units– Increasing new build

The benefit of using the Waugh Model for the Scottish Government?

The Endwww.tinyurl.com/awaugh

waugh.andrew@gmail.com