Homelessness and housing needs assessments
32
Homeless and Housing Need Assessments Helping Scottish local authorities assess their capacity to meet homelessness legislation Dr. Andrew Waugh Brussels 4 June 2010
-
Upload
feantsa -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
414 -
download
0
description
Presentation given by Andrew Waugh, Consultant, UK at a FEANTSA seminar on "Homelessness in public and private spaces: Mind the policy gap! Local strategies to address the different faces of homelessness", hosted by the Committee of the Regions, June 2010
Transcript of Homelessness and housing needs assessments
Homeless and Housing Need Assessments
Helping Scottish local authorities assess their capacity to meet homelessness legislation
Dr. Andrew WaughBrussels
4 June 2010
• Homelessness and Housing Need Assessments
• The Scottish Example• Impact of implementing legislative changes across local
authorities• Testing effectiveness of policy interventions
• Conclusions
Overview
• Housing Need Assessments• project need for housing across all tenures into the future• Should take into account demand for homelessness• Often involves a large survey
• Homelessness is a subset of wider housing need?
• Can measure need arising from homelessness using the Waugh Model• Mathematical model of the homelessness and social housing
system• Don’t need a survey
Homelessness and Housing Need Assessments
The Scottish Example
Housing (Scotland) Act 2001
• Temporary Accommodation for all homeless households until discharge of duty
• Permanent accommodation
• Modernised Right to Buy
Homelessness etc. (Scotland) Act 2003
• Extension, then abolition of the priority need test by the end of 2012 – 'the 2012 target'
• Power replaces duty to investigate intentionality• Suspension of the local connection provision.
HomelessPriority Need Intentionality
Local Connection
• Number of temporary accommodation places needed
• Time spent in temporary accommodation
• Number and proportion of lets required by homeless households into the future
• Will all Local Authorities manage?
What will the impact be on...?
• Initially for six individual local authorities in Scotland– Renfrewshire, – South Ayrshire, – North Ayrshire, – Aberdeen, – Dumfries & Galloway – Stirling
• The Scottish Government – all 32 local authorities and also a national picture
Who has this work been done for?
The Waugh Model
Stock Model Homelessness System Model+
Supply Demand
local authority level
Local Authority (LA) Tenancy Dynamics
LA Core
LA Demo
terminationsRTBs
homeless lets
decants to RSL
other waiting list lets
decants to LA
terminations
Core stock – has a future
Demolition stock – needs to be pulled down
• Inputs (things we try to control)– The number of applications + assessments– Number of lets to homeless households
• Outputs (results)– Number of households in the system– Time spent in the system
Temporary accommodation
Homelessness System Model
applications
lets
Homelessness System Model
PriorityNeed
Non Priority
Local Authority
Temporary Accommodation = constant x (Assess +PN + NonPN)
RSLPrivate Lets
Other
Local Authority
Other
• Homelessness levels as at 2006/7• All landlords maintain fixed % of lets• New Build distributed as in last 3 years
Continue 2006/7 Position
Households in Temporary Accommodation
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Hou
seho
lds
in T
empo
rary
Acc
omm
odat
ion
Historical Temporary Accommodation Projected Temporary Accommodation
10 053
Household Days in Temporary Accommodation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Hou
seho
ld D
ays
(mill
ions
)
• Massive growth in:– Number of households in temporary accommodation– Time spent in temporary accommodation– …Temporary accommodation budgets?
• Difficulty for Local Authorities• Bad for homeless people
• We need to avoid this happening
Continue 2006/7 Position
• Increase lets to avoid increase in temporary accommodation
• Modify Right to Buy• Make greater use of the private sector
– minimum of:• 20% of homeless outcomes or• 10% of lets in the PRS
• Increase prevention work further• Redistribute new build
Possible Actions and Policy Interventions
LAs only increase lets to avoid an increase in temporary accommodation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sh
etla
nd
Ren
frew
shire
Sout
h Ay
rshi
re
Gla
sgow
City
Inve
rcly
de
Dun
dee
City
Aber
deen
City
East
Ayr
shire Fife
Scot
tish
Bor
ders
Aber
deen
shire
Eile
an S
iar
Mid
loth
ian
Argy
ll &
Bute
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Dum
fries
& G
allo
way
Sout
h La
nark
shire
East
Ren
frew
shire
Angu
s
Perth
& K
inro
ss
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Hig
hlan
d
Falk
irk
Ork
ney
Edin
burg
h
Stirl
ing
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
Wes
t Lot
hian
Mor
ay
East
Lot
hian
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
All social landlords increase lets to avoid an increase in temporary accommodation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sh
etla
nd
Ren
frew
shire
Inve
rcly
de
Gla
sgow
City
Argy
ll &
Bute
Scot
tish
Bord
ers
Eile
an S
iar
Mid
loth
ian
Sout
h Ay
rshi
re
Dun
dee
City
East
Ayr
shire Fife
Aber
deen
City
Aber
deen
shire
East
Ren
frew
shire
Angu
s
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Dum
fries
& G
allo
way
Wes
t Lot
hian
Hig
hlan
d
Perth
& K
inro
ss
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Sout
h La
nark
shire
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Falk
irk
Ork
ney
Edin
burg
h
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
Stirl
ing
Mor
ay
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
East
Lot
hian
… and completely suspend RTB
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sh
etla
nd
Argy
ll &
Bute
Ren
frew
shire
Inve
rcly
de
Scot
tish
Bor
ders
Gla
sgow
City
Dun
dee
City
Mid
loth
ian
Sout
h Ay
rshi
re
Aber
deen
City
Eile
an S
iar
East
Ayr
shire
Aber
deen
shire Fife
East
Ren
frew
shire
Angu
s
Hig
hlan
d
Perth
& K
inro
ss
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Ork
ney
Dum
fries
& G
allo
way
Stirl
ing
Wes
t Lot
hian
Falk
irk
Sout
h La
nark
shire
Edin
burg
h
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
Mor
ay
East
Lot
hian
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
All social landlords +Private Rented Sector increase lets to avoid an increase in temporary accommodation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sh
etla
nd
Argy
ll &
Bute
Ren
frew
shire
Inve
rcly
de
Gla
sgow
City
Scot
tish
Bor
ders
Sout
h Ay
rshi
re
Mid
loth
ian
Dun
dee
City
Aber
deen
City
Eile
an S
iar
East
Ayr
shire
Aber
deen
shire Fife
East
Ren
frew
shire
Angu
s
Hig
hlan
d
Perth
& K
inro
ss
Dum
fries
& G
allo
way
Wes
t Lot
hian
Stirl
ing
Ork
ney
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Falk
irk
Sout
h La
nark
shire
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Edin
burg
h
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
Mor
ay
East
Lot
hian
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Prevention of 2.5 percent per annum…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Sh
etla
nd
Mid
loth
ian
Eile
an S
iar
Argy
ll &
Bute
Ren
frew
shire
Inve
rcly
de
Scot
tish
Bor
ders
Dun
dee
City
Gla
sgow
City
East
Ayr
shire
Sout
h Ay
rshi
re
Aber
deen
City
Fife
East
Ren
frew
shire
Aber
deen
shire
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Angu
s
Dum
fries
& G
allo
way
Perth
& K
inro
ss
Falk
irk
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Wes
t Lot
hian
Hig
hlan
d
Sout
h La
nark
shire
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Edin
burg
h
Ork
ney
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
Stirl
ing
Mor
ay
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
East
Lot
hian
...but with an increase of 2.5 percent per annum!
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%R
enfre
wsh
ire
Shet
land
Inve
rcly
de
Scot
tish
Bor
ders
Gla
sgow
City
Sout
h Ay
rshi
re
Dun
dee
City
Argy
ll &
Bute
East
Ayr
shire
Eile
an S
iar
Fife
Aber
deen
City
Aber
deen
shire
East
Ren
frew
shire
Mid
loth
ian
Angu
s
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Dum
fries
& G
allo
way
Wes
t Lot
hian
Hig
hlan
d
Perth
& K
inro
ss
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
Sout
h La
nark
shire
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Falk
irk
Ork
ney
Edin
burg
h
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
Stirl
ing
Mor
ay
East
Lot
hian
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Redistributed New Build
Maximum % of all lets to homeless
Units completions required in
2013/14
50% 7,447
60% 3,955
70% 1,746
•Assume homelessness remains at 2006/7 levels
•Assume LAs and RSLs contribute same proportion of lets
•Assume no additional contribution from PRS
Redistributed New Build – 60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%R
enfre
wsh
ire
Shet
land
Gla
sgow
City
Inve
rcly
de
Scot
tish
Bor
ders
Dun
dee
City
Sout
h Ay
rshi
re
Mid
loth
ian
Aber
deen
City
East
Ayr
shire Fife
Argy
ll &
Bute
Aber
deen
shire
Eile
an S
iar
Falk
irk
Stirl
ing
Hig
hlan
d
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Dum
fries
& G
allo
way
East
Lot
hian
Wes
t Lot
hian
Edin
burg
h
Angu
s
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Sout
h La
nark
shire
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Mor
ay
Ork
ney
Perth
& K
inro
ss
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
East
Ren
frew
shire
Homelessness vs. wider Housing NeedComparison of Waugh Model (2011/12) and Bramley Model Results (2011)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Abe
rdee
n C
ity
Dun
dee
City
Eas
t Ayr
shire
Falk
irk
Gla
sgow
City
Inve
rcly
de
Ren
frew
shire
Sco
ttish
Bor
ders
Shet
land
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Ork
ney
Angu
s
Eile
an S
iar
Stirl
ing
Fife
Arg
yll &
But
e
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Sout
h Ay
rshi
re
Mor
ay
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
East
Lot
hian
Abe
rdee
nshi
re
Sout
h La
nark
shire
Dum
fries
& G
allo
way
Wes
t Lot
hian
Mid
loth
ian
Perth
& K
inro
ss
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
East
Ren
frew
shire
Hig
hlan
d
City
of E
dinb
urgh
Uni
ts p
er y
ear
Waugh Bramley
Where we have been building
Baseline vs Bramley in 2011
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Aber
deen
City
Dun
dee
City
Eas
t Ayr
shire
Falk
irk
Gla
sgow
City
Inve
rcly
de
Ren
frew
shire
Sco
ttish
Bor
ders
Shet
land
Wes
t Dun
barto
nshi
re
Cla
ckm
anna
nshi
re
Ork
ney
Angu
s
Eile
an S
iar
Stir
ling
Fife
Arg
yll &
But
e
Nor
th L
anar
kshi
re
Sou
th A
yrsh
ire
Mor
ay
Nor
th A
yrsh
ire
East
Lot
hian
Aber
deen
shire
Sout
h La
nark
shire
Dum
fries
& G
allo
way
Wes
t Lot
hian
Mid
loth
ian
Perth
& K
inro
ss
East
Dun
barto
nshi
re
East
Ren
frew
shire
Hig
hlan
d
City
of E
dinb
urgh
Baseline Bramley
Conclusions
• Determine need arising from homelessness without a survey
• Argue to local councillors and others why the current position was unsustainable
• Assess which policy interventions, or combinations of intervention might help.
• Additionally, which interventions would be of very limited assistance.
• A strong evidence base to lobby the Scottish Government for increased funding
The benefit of using the Waugh Model for individual local authorities?
• Provided Ministers with an assessment of their commitment to implement the 2012 target using already available data
• Quantified the impact – more than just words• Provided evidence to argue for change:
– the Right to Buy– greater use of the private rented sector– allocation of new build units– Increasing new build
The benefit of using the Waugh Model for the Scottish Government?
