Post on 25-Feb-2016
description
STUDY FOR THE EU27
by
for
Aalborg University David ConnollyBrian Vad MathiesenPoul Alberg ØstergaardBernd MöllerSteffen NielsenHenrik Lund
Halmstad UniversityUrban PerssonDaniel NilssonSven Werner
Ecofys Germany GmbHJan GrözingerThosmas BoersmansMichelle Bosquet
PlanEnergiDaniel Trier
STUDY FOR THE EU27
Why this study?The heating and cooling sector has largely
been overlooked in all scenarios exploring the energy future towards 2050.
This study focuses on the future European heat and cooling market and its importance in terms of cost-savings, job creation, investments, and a smarter energy system
Existing StudiesExisting scenario reports:
Fail to provide proper analysis of heating and coolingHave a too low time and geographical resolution to model
the realities of the energy market, especially DHCAcknowledge the importance of DHC until 2030/2050, butAssume high shares of electric heating, low heat
consumption, and low shares of DHC by 2050
General Consensus: ”Combined heat & power (CHP) and district heating (DH) are important”
The European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050 communication:“An analysis of more ambitious energy efficiency measures and cost-
optimal policy is required. Energy efficiency has to follow its economic potential. This includes questions on to what extent urban and spatial
planning can contribute to saving energy in the medium and long term; how to find the cost-optimal policy choice between insulating buildings to
use less heating and cooling and systematically using the waste heat of electricity generation in combined heat and power plants.”
. . . but fail to quantify to which extent these options can be used in the future energy system . . .
The EU is wasting energy (heat)...
Primary
Energy
Supply
Final C
onsum
ption
End U
se0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Non-specifiedNon-energy useTransportElectricityHeat for IndustryHeat for Buildings
Ener
gy B
alan
ce fo
r the
EU
27 in
201
0 (E
J)
What is this Study?Two Reports:
Pre-study 1 (2012): is DHC beneficial in a business-as-usual scenario
Pre-study 2 (2013): is DHC beneficial in a low-heat demand scenario
MethodologyGIS Mapping
District Heating Demands
District Heating Resources
Energy System Modelling
BAU (References)
District Heating Alternatives
Results (PES, CO2, Costs)
Urban areas (Heating Demands) Power and Heat Generation Waste Management Industrial waste heat potential Geothermal heat Solar Thermalthe study indicates that the
market shares for district heating for buildings can be increased to 30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050.
GIS Mapping:Many Heat Sources
Energy Systems Analyses Model
CHP
Boiler
Electro-lyser
Heatpump and
electric boiler
PP
RES electricity
Fuel
RES heat
Hydro water Hydro storage
Hydro power plant
H2 storage
Electricity storagesystem
Import/Export
fixed and variable
Electricitydemand
Cooling device
Coolingdemand
Transport demand
Processheat
demandIndustry
Cars
Heat storage
Heat demand
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
Pre-Study 1(2012)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a business-as-usual
scenario?
2010 ModellingIEA Data
2010 Model
District Heating Alternatives
Ref = 12% DH2010 = 30% DH2010= 50% DH
Results(PES, CO2, Costs)
IEA Statistics
District Heating Benefits in 2 steps
Step 1: (Energy Efficiency)- Increasing DH to 30% then 50%- Increasing CHP- Using Oil/Natural gas in CC-CHPStep 2: (Utilise waste and RE sources)- Industrial waste heat- Waste incineration- Geothermal heat- Large-scale Solar Thermal
Year 2010Step 1: Energy Efficiency
Present 12% DH
30% DH 50% DH
IEA HRE
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500
0100200300400500600700
EU27 Primary Energy Supply and CO2 for Heating Buildings in 2010 at Different DH Penetrations
Existing CHP & DHAdditional CHP & DHOther renewableBiomassNatural gasCoalNuclearCO2 Emissions
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh)
CO2
Emiss
ions
(Mt)
Year 2010Step 2: Utilise
Resources
Present 12% DH
30% DH with RE
50% DH with RE
IEA HRE
0500
1,0001,5002,000
2,5003,0003,500
0100
200300400
500600
700
EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings in 2010 at Different DH Penetrations while
also Utilising RE ResourcesExisting CHP & DHAdditional CHP & DHOther renewableBiomassNatural gasCoalNuclearCO2-emissions
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh)
CO
2 Em
issi
on (M
t)
Present 12% DH 30% DH with RE
50% DH with RE
IEA HRE
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 in 2010 at Different DH Penetrations while also Utilising RE Resources
Other renewableBiomassNatural gasOilCoalNuclearCO2 Emissions
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh)
CO
2 E
miss
ions
(Mt)
Year 2010Total Energy Supply
7% reduction in Primary Energy Supply
13% reduction in fossil fuels
17% reduction in CO2-emissions
What is a Business-as-Usual Scenario?
Energy Roadmap 2050Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by the
National Technical University in Athens
Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:Reference: Business-as-usualCPI: Updated business-as-usualEE: Energy EfficiencyCCS: Carbon Capture and StorageNuclearHigh Renewable Energy
Designing the DHC Alternatives
EU CPIPRIMES Data
2030 & 2050 Model
District Heating Alternatives
2010 = 12% DH2030 = 30% DH2050= 50% DH
Results(PES, CO2, Costs)
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Current Policy Initiatives (CPI)
Year 2030 & 2050:Steps 1 & 2
EU Energy Roadmap
2050
2010Present
12% DH
203030% DH
& RE
205050% DH
& REIEA HRE
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
District Heating Production for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050
BoilerSolar thermalGeothermal heatHeat pumpsWaste incinerationIndustrial surplus heatAdditional CHPExisting CHP
Dis
trict
Hea
ting
Prod
uctio
n (T
Wh)
IEA12% DH
EP CPI10% DH
HRE30% DH
with RE
EP CPI10% DH
HRE50% DH
with RE2010 2030 2050
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
-1000100200300400500600700
Primary Energy Supply & CO2 for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050
EP CPI vs. HRE RE
Existing CHP & DHAdditional CHP & DHOther renewableBiomassNatural gasCoalNuclearCO2 Emission
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh)
CO
2 Em
issi
ons (
Mt)
Year 2030 & 2050:Total Energy Supply
EU Energy Roadmap
2050
IEA12% DH
EP CPI10% DH
HRE30% DHwith RE
EP CPI10% DH
HRE50% DHwith RE
2010 2030 2050
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 from 2010 to 2050EP CPI vs HRE RE
Other RenewablesBiomassNatural gasOilCoalNuclearCO2 Emissions
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh)
CO
2-em
issi
ons (
Mt)HRE 2050 compared to EU CPI 2050:
5% reduction in Primary Energy Supply
10% reduction in fossil fuels
13% reduction in CO2-emissions
Cost and Jobs Saved fuel costs
of annual approx. 30 Billion EUR in 2050
In total cost are reduced by 14 Billion EUR in 2050
Additional investments of a total of 500 billion EUR
Additional jobs from to 2013 to 2050: 8-9 million man-year in total
Approx. 220,000 jobs.
IEA EP CPI HRE RE EP CPI HRE RE2010 2030 2050
020406080
100120140
Annual EU27 Costs for Heating Buildings from 2010 to 2050
Fuel Fixed operation costsAnnual investment costs
Ann
ual H
eatin
g B
uild
ing
Cos
ts
(Bill
ion
Eur
o)
HRE1 Conclusion: 50% DH and CHP Decrease primary energy supply and
especially fossil fuels and CO2 emissions
Decrease annual costs of energy in Europe by approximately €14 Billion in 2050
Create additional 220,000 jobs over the period 2013-2050
Further integration of RES
LESS FUEL
LESS MONEY
MORE EU JOBS
MORE RE
Pre-Study 2(2013)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a low-heat demand
scenario?
Future: EU Energy Roadmap 2050Completed for the European Commission in 2011, by
the National Technical University in Athens
Presents 6 energy scenarios for the EU27:Reference: Business-as-usualCPI: Updated business-as-usualEnergy Efficiency (EU-EE)Carbon Capture & StorageNuclearHigh Renewable Energy
HRE2: Is district heating a good idea if we implement a lot of energy efficiency in the buildings?
Energy ModellingEU-EE
PRIMES Data2030 & 2050 Model
District Heating Alternatives
2010 = 12% DH2030 = 30% DH2050= 50% DH
Results(PES, CO2, Costs)
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
Energy Efficiency (EE)
Key Measures in the EU-EE Scenario
High renovation rates for existing buildings due to better/more financing and planned obligations for public buildings (more than 2% refurbishment per year)
Passive houses standards after 2020
Obligation of utilities to achieve energy savings in their customers' energy use over 1.5% per year (up to 2020)
Strong minimum requirements for energy generation, transmission and distribution including obligation that existing energy generation installations are upgraded to the
CPI vs. EE
CPI EE CPI EE CPI EE2010 2030 2050
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
RES Nuclear Natural gas Oil Solids
Gro
ss In
land
Con
sum
ptio
n (T
Wh)
Electricity in the EE Scenario
0
20
40
6040
150
2820
45
25
821
4945
18 21 14
64EE 2010 CPI 2050 EE 2050
Perc
enta
ge (%
)
EU-EE ScenarioHeat Demand Concerns
Hot water demand decreases by 50% between 2010 and 2050
Specific Heat Demands reduce by 70% between 2010 and 2050
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
EU-CPI Scenario EU-EE Scenario
Spac
e an
d H
ot W
ater
Hea
t Dem
ands
(TW
h/ye
ar)
Energy Efficiency CostsEU-EE Scenario 63% Drop in Heat Demands
Cost B€300/year 2010-2050
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Heat Demand Reduction (%)
Add
ition
al C
ost o
f Ene
rgy
Effic
ienc
y M
easu
res (
€/kW
h Sa
ved)
HRE-EE Hot Water Growth = +16% Residential and non-residential buildings is expected to grow by 32%
and 42% respectively between 2015 and 2050
Population will grow by 3.2% between 2010 and 2050.
Individuals are likely to take more showers and baths in the future than they do today.
People are not expected to live with one another as much in the future.
At present, there are regions in Europe where the use of hot water is limited due to technical and financial limitations.
HRE-EE Space Heating = -47%
20122016
20202024
20282032
20362040
20442048
20520
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Shallow Renovation
Target Scenario - Shallow Renovation + REN
Target Scenario - Deep Renovation
Spac
e He
ating
Dem
and
(TW
h/ye
ar)
Implementing District Heating1. Individual boilers are replaced by district heating:
30% in 2030 and 50% in 2050Individual heat pumps are not replaced
2. Individual cooling units are replaced with district cooling.10% in 2030 and 20% in 2050Natural cooling and absorption heat pumps are both
used.
Heat Demand by Source
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
GeothermalHeat PumpsDirect ElectricitySolarBiomassGasOilSolidsDistrict HeatingH
eat D
eman
ds (T
Wh/
year
)
Implementing District Heating3. New DH production facilities are constructed:
CHP, boilers, heat pumps, and thermal storage.
4. Additional resources can now be utilised by the district heating network:Industrial surplus heat: 100 TWh/yearDirect geothermal heat: 100 TWh/yearWaste incineration: 150 TWh/yearLarge-scale solar thermal: 100 TWh/yearWind power for large-scale heat pumps: 65 TWh/year
Heat ResourcesPotential:
Power Plants = 2000 TWhIndustry surplus heat = 750 TWhLarge-scale solar thermal = 350 TWhWaste = 200 TWhGeothermal = 120 TWhLarge-scale heat pumps = ?Biomass heat = ?
Total Heat Demand in the EU in 2010 = 3300 TWh
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE Additional Resources
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Industry Waste Incineration^ Geothermal Large-Scale Solar
Hea
t Ava
ilabl
e fr
om U
ncon
vent
iona
l R
esou
rces
due
to D
istri
ct H
eatin
g*
(TW
h/ye
ar)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE DH Supply
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
IndustryWasteGeothermalSolarHeat PumpsBoilerCHP
Dis
trict
Hea
ting
Supp
ly fo
r Res
iden
tial a
nd
Serv
ices
Bui
ldin
gs (T
Wh/
year
)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE: Primary Energy Supply & CO2
EU-EE(13% DH)
HRE-EE(30% DH)
EU-EE(13% DH)
HRE-EE(50% DH)
2030 2050
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Nuclear Coal Oil Gas Biomass Waste RES
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh/
year
)
Car
bon
Dio
xide
Em
issi
ons (
X, M
t/yea
r)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:Fossil Fuels
EU-EE HRE-EE EU-EE HRE-EE2030 2050
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000Nuclear Coal Oil Gas
Prim
ary
Ener
gy S
uppl
y (T
Wh/
year
)
Car
bon
Dio
xide
Em
issi
ons (
X, M
t/yea
r)
EU-EE vs. HRE-EE:Heat & Cooling Costs -
15%
0100200300400500600700800
EU-EE(13% DH)
HRE-EE(30% DH)
EU-EE(13% DH)
HRE-EE(50% DH)
2030 2050
Tota
l Cos
ts fo
r Hea
ting
and
Coo
ling
in th
e R
esid
entia
l and
Ser
vice
s Se
ctor
s (B
€/ye
ar)
End-Use Energy Efficiency Investments Heating System InvestmentsCooling System Investments Centralised Electricity & Heat PlantsFuel CO2
Renewables and Energy EfficiencyAdditional Renewables 100 TWh Geothermal 100 TWh large-scale solar 65 TWh wind (due to a
smarter energy system)Context: 2050 total
heat is 2600 TWh
Energy Efficiency Demand side is extremely
important, but eventually it will become expensive
Supply side also has many options: PP converted to CHP 100 TWh surplus industrial
heat 200 TWh heat from waste
incineration
Case Study: Århus
LegendDistrict heating area
Built up areas
Aarhus municipality
Case StudyConclusions
District heating is an attractive solution in areas with a high heat density
District heating can be seen as an efficiency measure similar to reductions in heat demand, because it enables the use of fuels in a more efficient way
Heat reductions in buildings can be combined with district heating so that it is competitive with individual solutions
HRE1 ConclusionsIf we continue under a
business-as-usual scenario, then district heating can:Reduce the PESReduce the CO2 emissionsReduce the costs of the
energy systemUse more renewable energy
HRE2 ConclusionsIf we implement a lot of energy
efficiency measures, then district heating will:Meet the same goals:
Utilise the same amount of fossil fuelsEnable the same CO2 emission
reductionsBUT, Cost approximately 10% less
Study 3?(20??)
Is DHC beneficial for the EU energy system in a ??? scenario?
Research To Be Continued…Develop national plans that connect the
local (mapping) and EU (modelling) results.
Optimise the EU energy system by reducing baseload electricity and developing more smart energy system technologies
4th Generation District Heating: http://www.4dh.dk/
Benefits of District Heating Improves the efficiency of the system (CHP, O&M, etc.)
Creates short-term and long-term flexibility
Enables more renewable energy resources and surplus heat to be utilised
Reduces the thermal capacity necessary
Increases the comfort-levels for the end-user
Thank youNeed a copy of the report?www.heatroadmap.euwww.4dh.dk/hre