Post on 13-Jun-2022
Grain Supply Chain Infrastructure and Corridors
Fields on Wheels
Winnipeg, MB December 2, 2015
Agenda
� Production and Supply � Infrastructure � System Performance � Summary
Introduction
� Despite the challenges, the past 20 years has seen many changes and extraordinary improvements in the Western Canadian GHTS
� Canada continues to have a world class grain delivery supply chain that is continually working to move more, faster and more effectively
� The changes we have seen in the past 20 years can tell us a lot of the potential for the next 20 …
15-12-14
Production and Supply
Production – 1980 -2015(P) (‘000 tonnes)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Cereals Canola Special Crops Other
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 *
Tonn
es (0
00)
Production Carry In
Total Supply (Western Canada Production and Carry In Stock)
81.977.1
66.2P
Country Elevator Throughput
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
MB SK AB BC
Tonn
es (0
00's
)
Where does Western Grain Go? (2014-15)
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT [PERCENTA
GE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT
[PERCENTAGE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT [PERCENTA
GE] [CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT [PERCENTA
GE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT
[PERCENTAGE]
Tonnes (,000)
Total = 51,778 MT
Western Canada Traffic (2014-15)
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT [PERCENTA
GE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT [PERCENTA
GE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT [PERCENTA
GE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT [PERCENTA
GE]
[CATEGORY NAME]
[VALUE]MT
[PERCENTAGE]
Total = 37,855 MT
Tonnes (,000)
Total Volume Movement to Western Ports
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1999
-200
0
2000
-200
1
2001
-200
2
2002
-200
3
2003
-200
4
2004
-200
5
2005
-200
6
2006
-200
7
2007
-200
8
2008
-200
9
2009
-201
0
2010
-201
1
2011
-201
2
2012
-201
3
2013
-201
4
2014
-201
5
Tonn
es (0
00)
VANCOUVER PRINCE RUPERT CHURCHILL THUNDER BAY
� Annual Growth Rate is 3%
� West Coast Annual Growth rate = 5% ¡ Lower Ocean Freight ¡ Proximity to markets
� A Record Total of 38 MMT in 2014-15
Truck to US (Tonnes)
� Initial results of trucking data analysis
� A comparison of Single desk (2011-12) to this past crop year show a steady increase
� More detailed trucking data will be included in Annual Report
1,906 1,57
7
2,273
3,214
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-14 2014-15
15-12-14
Infrastructure
Grain Company 1988 2001 2007 2012 2015 Current Assets
Continental Grain Assets
purchased by Richardson
19 Facilities Richardson International
4 Port 66 Country
Pioneer/ Richardson
Manitoba Pools Agricore Agricore
United Viterra Glencore Viterra
(Glencore) 4 Port
71 Country
Alberta Wheat Pool
UGG
Saskatchewan Wheat Pool
Cargill Cargill 2 Port 29 Country
Paterson Alliance Grain
Terminal
Paterson 1 Port 30 Country
Parish and Heimbecker
Parish and Heimbecker
3 Port 22 Country
Louis Dreyfus Louis Dreyfus 1 Port 11 Country
CWB/ G3 G3 4 Port 11 Country
Consolidation of the Grain Industry
First country elevator in 1998
Primary Elevator Facilities
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
AU
G 1
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q2
Q4
1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC Delivery Points
Primary Elevator Storage Capacity
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Tonn
es ('
000s
)
Primary Elevator Storage Capacity
Railway Network: 1980
CN CP Regional/ Shortlines
Approx. 22,000 Miles
Railway Network: 2014
CN CP Regional/ Shortlines 17,424 Miles
Port Terminals – Capacity
Port Terminals – 5 Year Avg. Volumes
Grain Industry Investments
� Grain Companies Capital Investments for Expansion and Productivity – 2013 and 2014 – Total $763 M: ¡ Port Terminals = $304 M ¡ Country Elevators = $284 M ¡ Country Elevator New Builds = $ 175 M
� Farm Investments include: ¡ Machinery and Equipment = $25.98 B (over past 8 years) ¡ On Farm Storage = $17.5 B (70.1 M tonnes, approx. 15 M in
last 5 years) � Railways Total Capex – 2014
¡ CP = $1.5 B; CN = $2.3 B
Beyond that …
Country � G3 expansion and other entrants(?) � Increasing the capacity of existing facilities Railway � Continued increase in sidings, sidings length,
investments geared for more capacity and increased velocity, IT and Motive Power
Terminals � More expansion of existing terminals in Vancouver � The possible addition of G3 on North Shore
15-12-14
System Performance
Country Elevator Turnover Ratio
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
Turn
s pe
r yea
r
� Continued and ever improving strong performance
� Reveals a coupling of the increase in storage capacity and the reduction of facilities
Western Railway Car Cycles (to three ports)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Day
s
Loading Time (days) Origin Dwell Time (days) Loaded Transit Time (days)
Destination Dwell Time (days) Unloading Time (days) Empty Transit Time (days)
Linear (Total Cycle Time (days))
Railcar Cycles - Western Canada Traffic - days
2014-15 Crop Year
14.6
12.4
12.6 23.4
42.0
27.9 39.5
38.2
20.8
23.1
Loaded Transit Time: Western Ports
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
0.450
0.500
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015
CV
Day
s
Loaded Transit Time (days) Coefficient of Variation Linear (Loaded Transit Time (days)) Linear (Coefficient of Variation)
5 Year Trend
Port Terminal Turnover Ratios
� Vancouver and Prince Rupert terminals have set record movements and turnover ratios
� Reveal excellent utilization of assets
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Num
ber o
f tim
es tu
rned
ove
r
Vancouver Prince Rupert All
Vancouver Vessel Time in Port
� One area of concern � Driven by multiple
issues, including: ¡ Stocks not available when
vessel arrives ¡ Low Ocean vessel rates ¡ Record high volumes of
traffic � Was 8-10 days prior to
2010 and climbing since -
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2001-02 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Time in the System
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2013-2014 2014-2015
Day
s
Country Elevator Storage Railway Loaded Transit Terminal Elevator Storage Linear (Total (days))
Process and Approach
� Grain Companies ¡ Match sourcing to sales ¡ Increased contracting with producers
� Railways ¡ Adapting new car allocation concepts (i.e. DTP on CP; CFIP on CN) ¡ I Advise: First Mile - Last Mile - Improving communication with
customers via the Web (CN) ¡ CN’s Winter Ready Certified Loader Program: train air in winter
� Terminals ¡ Increasing shifts to match volumes ¡ Adapting technological solutions to: reduce vessel loading times;
increase velocity of railcar unloading
Future Considerations
� New build elevators in the country are moving to a loop track design … ¡ Faster loading of railcars, reduced switching
� Loop Tracks at Port? ¡ Waterfront property constraints ¡ At least 1 new port terminal project sees it in their plans
� Impact of Logistical Economics in the Future? ¡ Ocean Freight in the long term? ¡ Increased use of “Salty’s” on the Seaway ¡ Changes in Global demographics
Winter will always come …
Should we consider other Modes?
Summary
� Last year saw the highest volume movement from both country elevators and from export ports … ever
� Railway car supply and movement has been the best we have seen … ever
� So far, in the 2015-16 crop year, volumes and logistical flows remain strong
� Are we headed to set a new normal in terms of production, volume and exports ? – lets hope so!
15-12-14
Thank You
Reports Available Website: www.grainmonitor.ca