US Election 201610 Swing States Google v Results

11.11.2016

US Search Volume – last 30 days

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Actual 47.7% / 47.5% - Clinton wins!Source: Google Trends

FBI Investigation ReopensThird TV Debate

Ten Swing States

Ohio – last 30 days

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Clinton ahead

Actual 44% / 52% - Trump wins!

Source: Google Trends

Florida – last 30 days

Source: Google Trends

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Clinton ahead

Actual 48% / 49% - Trump wins!

Virginia – last 30 days

Source: Google Trends

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Clinton ahead

Actual 50% / 45% - Clinton wins!

Iowa – last 30 days

Source: Google Trends

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Clinton ahead

Actual 42% / 52% - Trump wins!

Wisconsin – last 30 days

Source: Google Trends

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Clinton ahead

Actual 47% / 48% - Trump wins!

Colorado – last 30 days

Source: Google Trends

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Clinton ahead

Actual 47% / 45% - Clinton wins!

Nevada – last 30 days

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Clinton ahead

Actual 48% / 46% - Clinton wins!

New Hampshire– last 30 days

Source: Google Trends

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Clinton ahead

Actual 47% / 47% - Not called yet

North Carolina – last 30 days

Source: Google Trends

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Trump ahead

Actual 47% / 51% - Trump wins!

Arizona – last 30 days

Source: Google Trends

Google Prediction - Trump wins!

Polls – Trump ahead

Actual 45% / 50% - Trump wins!

Google’s Verdict

Trump

Google versus PollsState Polls GoogleOhio Fail Correct

Florida Fail Correct

Virginia Correct Fail

Iowa Fail Correct

Wisconsin Fail Correct

Colorado Correct Fail

Nevada Correct Fail

New Hampshire N / A N / A

North Carolina Correct Correct

Arizona Correct Correct

Total 5 6

Conclusions Google search traffic predicted the outcome of

8/9 swing states in 2012 – 89% but just 6/9 in 2016 - 67%

In the swing states the fastest rising searches were –

Clinton with FBI, Investigation, Scandal & Wikileaks

Trump with Can Win, Rally, Accusers, Iraq & Michael Moore

Clinton’s campaign was all about Together / Stronger yet the searches were quite negative

while the reverse is true of Trump where his rhetoric was divisive & negative yet the

searches were more positive – he definitely won in the search space in these states

Nationally Natasha Stoyoff & Jessica Leeds were highly searched with Trump but not in the

swing states except Virginia...which may explain why it went Clinton and the others didn’t