Google Trends versus US Election 2016
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Transcript of Google Trends versus US Election 2016
US Election 201610 Swing States Google v Results
11.11.2016
US Search Volume – last 30 days
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Actual 47.7% / 47.5% - Clinton wins!Source: Google Trends
FBI Investigation ReopensThird TV Debate
Ten Swing States
Ohio – last 30 days
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 44% / 52% - Trump wins!
Source: Google Trends
Florida – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 48% / 49% - Trump wins!
Virginia – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 50% / 45% - Clinton wins!
Iowa – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 42% / 52% - Trump wins!
Wisconsin – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 47% / 48% - Trump wins!
Colorado – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 47% / 45% - Clinton wins!
Nevada – last 30 days
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 48% / 46% - Clinton wins!
New Hampshire– last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Clinton ahead
Actual 47% / 47% - Not called yet
North Carolina – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Trump ahead
Actual 47% / 51% - Trump wins!
Arizona – last 30 days
Source: Google Trends
Google Prediction - Trump wins!
Polls – Trump ahead
Actual 45% / 50% - Trump wins!
Google’s Verdict
Trump
Google versus PollsState Polls GoogleOhio Fail Correct
Florida Fail Correct
Virginia Correct Fail
Iowa Fail Correct
Wisconsin Fail Correct
Colorado Correct Fail
Nevada Correct Fail
New Hampshire N / A N / A
North Carolina Correct Correct
Arizona Correct Correct
Total 5 6
Conclusions Google search traffic predicted the outcome of
8/9 swing states in 2012 – 89% but just 6/9 in 2016 - 67%
In the swing states the fastest rising searches were –
Clinton with FBI, Investigation, Scandal & Wikileaks
Trump with Can Win, Rally, Accusers, Iraq & Michael Moore
Clinton’s campaign was all about Together / Stronger yet the searches were quite negative
while the reverse is true of Trump where his rhetoric was divisive & negative yet the
searches were more positive – he definitely won in the search space in these states
Nationally Natasha Stoyoff & Jessica Leeds were highly searched with Trump but not in the
swing states except Virginia...which may explain why it went Clinton and the others didn’t