Good sources of info for papers

• Alan Guttmacher Institute

• www.agi-usa.org

• JSTOR

• www.jstor.org

Societal level effects of population growth

Economic development,

environment,

biological diversity

1960’s Fears of Population Growth

• alarmists wrote of the "population explosion" and credited population growth with responsibility for many, if not all, of the afflictions of the developing world

• Others concluded that rapid growth was detrimental to prospects for improving conditions in much of the world and warrants efforts to reduce fertility. 

Population Policy

• Early policy depended in part on the belief that slower population growth would lead to economic development, prevent environmental degradation, and prevent loss of biodiversity

• This was the justification for governmental involvement in the private lives of citizens in regard to their fertility

1971 US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report

• Concluded that "unprecedented and still accelerating population growth has not prevented very rapid economic advance. 

• Population growth, though not a negligible block to development and modernization, has also not been an overriding factor.

1971 US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report

• Concerned with effects on both rural and urban areas, they believed that rapid growth seemed certain:

• to "increase the number of landless, subsistence, or disadvantaged" and

• to raise "administrative burdens and social costs of absorbing urban arrivals.”

1971 US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report

• appears clear that rapid population growth in the less developed countries has been a decided obstacle rather than an aid to economic growth

• the more rapid the rise in numbers, the greater the deterrent effects

1971 US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report

• appears clear that rapid population growth in the less developed countries has been a decided obstacle rather than an aid to economic growth

• the more rapid the rise in numbers, the greater the deterrent effects

NAS 1971 conclusion

Population growth is only one of severalvariables that affect the quality oflife....thus it would be a grossoversimplification to blame numbers ofpeople alone for the set of problemsconfronting modern society

1971 recommendations

• series of policies related to inducing fertility change, including that all people have the freedom to determine family size

• national population-influencing policies, to serve national objectives of economic development, public health and welfare, and environmental conservatism

1971 NAS claim:

• developing countries could raise their per capita income growth by a third completely through a 25 percent drop in their fertility

• appears to have been added to the executive summary by a young staffer and not picked up by committee members

Julian Simon

• 1981 published Population: The Ultimate Resource

• individuals should be able to control their number of children if they so choose

• contested the view that rapid growth had deleterious effects

Julian Simon

• population growth is a significant and effective long-term stimulus to economic development

• exerts its influence by, among other ways, increasing the tempo of innovation

• His views profoundly influenced the U.S. Government's stance at the 1984 UN International Conference on Population

1986 NAS report

• Specifically addressed economic issues: would slowing population growth through a national family planning program lead to improvement in various aspects of economic level and development

• They considered 9 specific questions

Exhaustible resources: Many of the earlyfears that population growth would lead toexhaustion of nonrenewable resources didnot take into account the impetus thatscarcity would have for development ofadaptive strategies involving alternativeresources. Economists say that use of non-renewable resources is allocated throughmarket mechanisms in which price isdetermined by both supply of and demandfor a particular resource. If a nonrenewableresource is depleted, the price will rise,either because the supply falls or the costs ofextraction rise or both. But high price willthen stimulate the search for substitutes andfor conservation.

• But markets are fallible -- so that there may not be sufficient time for markets to react and provide alternatives

• The report concluded that slowing population growth would “buy time” to find alternatives, but that it was not a major factor in exhausting non-renewable resources

• SCORE: No, but

Renewable resources

• two mechanisms may link population growth rates and renewable resources

• Diminishing returns: The more people alive at any one time, the less of a renewable resource, such as arable land, is available to each person. Reduced availability of some resources lowers individual productivity (and therefore individual income).

More on diminishing returns

• The danger of resource depletion is especially high when there is no system that governs access to and use of that resource

• Free access: users pay only the cost of harvesting, which is lower than the cost if the asset value were taken into account. Examples of such resources:forests to which access is unrestricted, and fishing.

What populations can do

• Develop controls on use

• In the meantime, however, resources could be depleted

• Conclusion: lower population growth offers time to find solutions

Conclusions

• Slower population growth is likely to lead to a reduced rate of degradation of renewable common-property resources such as air, water, and species of plants and animals

• There will be slower degradation if resources are held in common and access limited, rather than free access

Will income inequality decrease?

• In the past, when populations grew more slowly, wages tended to rise, so that the income of workers became higher, relative to those of owners of capital

• If population growth slows, then workers are in short supply and their wages rise, reducing inequality

Effects for women

• The effect may be especially pronounced for women.  “In most countries, women bear most of the time, health, and energy burdens of bearing and raising children.  when this burden is increased by unwanted children, there is probably a greater welfare loss for women than for men.”

• Therefore, reduced fertility may improve the economic position of women

More recent economic analysis

• A number of economists now believe that the rapid decrease in fertility and decline in population growth that East Asia experienced contributed to the growth of the Asian Tigers

• There were lots of young people of working age who were not also young parents

• They provided labor and focused on work

Age distribution matters!

• What they are saying is that countries that have a low proportion of children and a high proportion in the working age are likely to develop quickly economically

• As many other countries go through the same kind of transition, they believe it likely that rapid economic development will follow

Environment

• Much of the early analysis used the I=PAT equation:

• Impact on environment = Population x

• A(production per capita) x

• T (impact per unit of production)

• Clearly, impact increases with population

Problems

• Effect of adding a person is different for different parts of the world

• Interactions exist -- whereby technology may change as population changes

• Developed countries are more efficient in production

• Better resource management can reduce impact

Biodiversity

• Argument centers over species loss• Is the rate different from the past?• Good scientists differ in their conclusions• Recent work suggests that there is such

variation in species density that a very small proportion of the earth contains the vast majority of species

• Can we preserve those areas?