Post on 12-Apr-2018
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Global Wood Markets:Consumption, Production and Trade
By Ed Pepke
Forest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE/FAO Timber Section
Geneva, Switzerland
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Presentation topics
I. Introduction
II. Where is the supply? Global forests
III. Where is the production? Where is the demand?
IV. Forest products tradePrimarySecondary
V. Conclusions
VI. Discussion
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
I. Introduction
Why’s this important?• Trends in demand and supply of wood products• Geographical shifts in production, consumption and trade • Position of Europe in global markets
What forest products?• Wood vs non-wood• Traditional and new products
Topical issues• Traditional, e.g. trade disputes• New, e.g. subsidies for wood energy
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
II. Global forests and forest products
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Forests and deforestation
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Mill
ion
hect
ares
Natural Plantation Total
Europe
Asia &Pacific
AfricaS. America
MideastNorth
America
Central America
Sources: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessments 2000, 2005, 2010
Net forest loss:1990s 8.3 million ha/year2000-2010 5.2 million ha/year
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Why deforestation?
Conversion to other uses: agriculture, palm oil, pasture, urbanization
Fire, insects, disease
Root causes: poverty, firewood, illegal logging
Offset by plantations and natural expansion
Positive trend of a negative issue
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Global roundwood harvests
Source: State of the World’s Forests, 2009, FAO.
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World roundwood vs fuelwood
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Bill
ion
m3
Industrial roundwood Woodfuel
Of 3.5 billion m3, slightly more than half is used as woodfuel.
Source: FAOStat, 2009.
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Woodfuel use
Inefficient domestic heating and cooking
Increasing in developed world, but efficient, environmentally sound combustion.
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Modern wood energy
Efficient, clean combustion
Carbon neutral
Renewable energy
Market outlet for low-grade fiber
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Modern wood energy
Processed fuels
• Not bulky firewood• Conveyable chips (high moisture)• Dry, high calorie pellets and briquettes
Next…
• Biorefineries: pulp, energy, chemicals• Liquid and gaseous fuels
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
North American Production
North American Consumption
European Consumption
Other Consumption
Total Consumption
Pelle
t Pro
duct
ion
(100
0 to
ns)
Production and consumption of wood pellets
Source: UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2008- 2009.
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Source: Worldmapper
UNECE region = Europe + N. America + CIS
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
UNECE roundwood harvests trends
Europe
Source: UNECE/FAO TIMBER Database, 2009.
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Forest resources growing stock
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Europe (41) North America CIS
Growing stock Net annual increment Fellings
s
Bill
ion
m3
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Net annual growth vs fellings
0
0 .1
0 .2
0 .3
0 .4
0 .5
0 .6
0 .7
0 .8
0 .9
1
E u ro p e (41 ) N . A m erica C IS
N et an n u a l in crem en t F e llin g s
Bill
ion
m3
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Forests increasing in UNECE region
34%Russia
60%EU 27
80%North America
45%Southeast Europe
53%Northwest Europe
72%Nordics & Baltics
61%Central Europe
Fellings as % of annual growth
Sources: State of the World’s Forests, 2007 and UNECE/FAO Forest Resources Assessment
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Increasing forests & increasing demands
Increasing demand for paper and paper products, e.g. packaging
Increasing demand for wood products
Increasing demand for wood energy
= competition!
Where will wood come from?
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by political boundaries
Source: Worldmapper
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by population
Source: Worldmapper, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by forest products production
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
World shaped by wood and paper consumption
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
As shaped by forest products exports
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
As shaped by forest products imports
Sources: Worldmapper & FAOStat, 2009
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Western European wood and fiber requirements through 2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Am
ount
(in
mill
ion
cubi
c m
etre
s WR
ME
)
Recovered paperNet pulp importsIndustrial roundwoodTotal wood and fibre requirement
Growing demand without energy
Gap is residues
Source: UNECE/FAO European Forest Sector
Outlook Study, 2005
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Industrial roundwood consumption
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
m3
AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeOceania
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Industrial roundwood production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
m3
AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeOceania
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Sawnwood consumption
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
m3
AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeOceania
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Sawnwood production
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
m3
AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeOceania
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Panels production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
m3
AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeOceania
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Panels consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
m3
AfricaAmericasAsiaEuropeOceania
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Paper & paperboard consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
met
ric
tons Africa
AmericasAsiaEuropeOceania
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Paper & paperboard production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mill
ion
met
ric
tons Africa
AmericasAsiaEuropeOceania
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
What happens when supply does not equal demand?
IV. Trade
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Global trade all products
Doubled in6 years
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Europe leads in roundwoodexports (including within Europe)
Global roundwood exports
Globally exports = imports in value and volume, but not in direction!
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
N. American roundwood exports
USA increasingroundwood
exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
CIS roundwood exports, mainly Russia
Trend reversal in 2008
• Log export taxes
• Global economic crisis
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
African and Asian roundwood exportsRising despite policies to encourage value-addedprocessing
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Housing crisis
North American exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
US housing starts, 2002-2013
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013
Source: APA – The EngineeredWood Association, 2009
Mill
ion
un
its
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Impacts of US housing crisis
Global economic crisis (a cause)
Massive restructuring of N. American wood industry (unemployment)
Local communities devastated
Long-term consequences for forest sector
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
2x in 10 years
European exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
4x in 10 years
Log export taxes
CIS exports, mainly Russia
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Exporting primary vs secondary
Primary (logs, sawnwood, panels, pulp) are commodity products• Easy to export• Correspond to market price
Secondary, value-added products• Higher value and profits• Require greater manufacturing and marketing skills
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Secondary-processed products exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Based on domestic and imported roundwoodWorld’s largest exporter of wooden furnitureand other secondary-processed products
5x in 10 years,no downturn in 2008
China is the motor!
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Paper products exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Panel exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
Sawn softwood exports
Source: FAOStat, 2010
International Forestry and Global Issues18 May 2010, Nancy, France
V. Trade conclusions
Global timber trade doubled over last decade
Greatest increase in secondary-processed products
Slowdown in 2008, 2009 with global economic crisis
China became largest roundwood importer and largest secondary-processed products exporter
Trade barriers distort markets• Export taxes, subsidies, tariff and non-tariff• Intentionally for national reasons• Consequences for partners’ forest sector