Post on 12-Apr-2017
Truck Platooning Market Growth Opportunities 2016 to 2030 Autonomous Trucking Technologies to Launch Massive Productivity, Safety,
and Efficiency Gains in Freight Mobility
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September 2016
BRIEF SUMMARY
VERSION
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Contents
Section Slide Number
Executive Summary 3
Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology 11
Automation Overview 16
Introduction to Platooning 19
Regulatory Environment Analysis 28
Technologies in Platooning 38
Drivers and Restraints 48
Truck Platooning—Market Forecasts 51
Key Projects in Truck Platooning 58
Company Profiles—OEM 64
Company Profiles—Suppliers 68
Fleet Owner and Driver Perspectives on Truck Platooning 76
Conclusion and Future Outlook 79
Appendix 83
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Return to contents
Executive Summary
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Truck Platooning Market: Executive Summary, Global, 2015
1
Total platooning revenue is estimated to reach $12,231 million in the United States and $2,404
million in Europe by 2030. Growth is expected at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8%
in the United States and 33.0% in Europe between 2020 and 2030.
2
The legal framework is being formulated in Europe and the United States. Government support is
expected to represent a significant factor in the proliferation of autonomous trucks by the year 2025.
Many regional governments such as England, Sweden, and some US states are pushing
autonomous driving technologies.
3
Platooning is quickly becoming a reality in the trucking industry. Most key original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs) and Tier I suppliers are intensifying efforts to develop a functioning system
and business model for platooning. The next step in the process is to convince fleets to buy into the
benefits of truck platooning.
4
Most major OEMs possess autonomous trucks in their future product strategies. Moreover, these
OEMs truly believe the future of trucking lies in autonomous driving technologies. This strategy has
allowed OEMs to increase efforts towards complete vertical integration of their supply chains and
systems. Autonomous trucks provide the opportunity to differentiate the OEMs brand and
technological capabilities.
5 The technology to build a platooning truck is available and many key OEMs have demonstrated
capabilities and product strategies towards developing a fully functional platooning truck.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Executive Summary—Key Findings Increasing interest and adoption bolstered by safety mandates will ensure strong growth of vehicles able to
platoon.
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Truck Platooning Market: Executive Summary, Global, 2015
Executive Summary—Mergers, Acquisitions, and Investments
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Isuzu
Microsoft
Jaybridge
Robotics
Uber Tata
Fund
Volvo
Otto
deCarta
+ Peloton
Techno-
logy
Lockheed
Martin Paccar
Meritor
Wabco
+ TomTom
Telematics Simacan
Dutch
Govt.
GM
Lyft
Cruise
Automotive
Mergers
Acquisitions
Investments
$100 million
$17 million co-led by
Denso and Intel Capital
$500 million
Driver Assisted
Truck Platooning
conducted by ATRI
OEM Independent Truck
Platooning Control Tower
Toyota
Connect
Toyota
Significant cost savings and huge potential to deliver a disruptive change are key drivers pushing market
participants to invest heavily in the trucking industry.
$16 million Denso Castrol Magna + + +
Technology Companies
OEM Operators
Others
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Executive Summary—Truck Platooning: Fleet Angle Freight transportation via trucks will remain significantly relied upon; truck platooning provides fleets the
opportunity to reduce both fuel consumption and driver stress, while improving productivity.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Truck Platooning Market: Truck Platooning—Fleet Angle, Global, 2015
Fleet Productivity
• Improvements in freight logistics
planning
• Reduction in fuel consumption
and traffic accidents
Driver Retention
• Health, wellness, and
wellbeing focus through
reduction in driver stress
to help retain older
drivers
• Improving working
conditions and ability to
reward drivers for good
driving behavior
Strict Safety Regulations
• Driver monitoring and information
analytics
• Active integrated safety systems
• Regulation compliance monitoring
(CSA- compliance, safety,
accountability and hours of service)
Operation Requirements
• Time and zone-wise access needed
• Fleet-type operations important, as truck and
box-trailer combinations are most effective in
platooning applications
• Understanding the benefits of truck
platooning in regards to dedicated-route
freight transport versus non-dedicated route
operations
Inter-fleet Platooning
• Inter-fleet platooning organization
expected to be the most
difficult aspect of truck
platooning with many
persistent challenges such as:
o Determining the leader of
the truck platoon
o Connecting and forming a
platoon with on-highway trucks
o Costs associated with forming a platoon
Intra-fleet Platooning
• Requires truck resource planning and freight
logistics within fleets
• Location-based platooning to be key aspect
for intra-fleet planning—Fleet operations will
need to determine optimal time and place for
truck platoons to form and dissolve
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Executive Summary—Path to Platooning: Heavy Duty (HD) Trucking
Interest
levels
Revenue
potential Technology
Market Penetration of Required
Technologies
• ACC and CMS on trucks far
from becoming standard
across all brands and trims,
due to extreme price sensitivity
of fleet operators
Installation Challenges
• Fleet-wide installation
• Funding and partnerships
• Lack of clarity on who will be
system integrator
Uncertainty About Mixed-interest
Levels
• Potential to increase value
• Waiting time to platoon negate
with savings on fuel
• Proven safety in real-world
situations
• ―If-it-is-not-broken-why-fix-it?‖
attitude common in commercial
vehicle operations
Revenue Potential
• Convincing fleet owners about
returns on investment despite
low fuel prices
Existing Facilities
• Legal aspects of platooning still
to be proposed formally
• Insurance and litigation
structure still in unfamiliar
territory
Agreeing on Standards Across
Several Aspects
• Interoperability between fleets
• Truck certification for
platooning
Business Models to Choose From
• Different rate per class or
weight
• Charge by the hour
• Charge by usage
• Subscription model or one-time
cost
Technology
• Perceived as extremely
advanced technology with the
potential to cause
apprehensions in early
adoption by fleets
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Several questions remain unanswered as much of the framework for platooning is still falling into place.
Truck Platooning Market: HD Trucking Challenges, Global, 2015
ACC = adaptive cruise control; CMS = collision mitigation system
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Services, 71.3%
Hardware, 28.7%
2020
Executive Summary—Overview of Truck Platooning Market
2030
Truck Platooning Market: Platooning Revenue Split by Source, Global, 2020–2030
• Peloton is expected to dominate the truck platooning market (given the premise that it will remain
independent until 2030) in both aftermarket and OEM channels. However, its acquisition and synergy with
leading OEMs or Tier I companies cannot be ruled out.
• Daimler is expected to be a leading enabler of platooning in the European market with Volvo and Scania
close behind. Platooning is expected to be offered as an added capability in the telematics package or for a
small fee.
Services, 67.9%
Hardware, 32.1%
Truck Platooning Market: Revenue Split by Source, US, 2030
Total Revenue
~$1,837.7
Million
Total Revenue
~$14,635.5
Million
CAGR 2020–2030: 23.1%
Currently, North America, Europe, and Japan are the only regions actively involved in showcasing platooning
projects.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Truck Platooning Market: Revenue
Split by Source, Europe, 2030
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Executive Summary—Regulatory Changes for Platooning Regulatory mandates and legislative frameworks surrounding usage of autonomous driving technologies and
on-road autonomous trucks will be the strongest indicators towards the future success of this market.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Truck Platooning Market: Regulatory Changes Necessary, Global, 2015 and 2030
*EPA: Environmental Protection Agency; GHG: Greenhouse gases
V2X = vehicle to anything; V2V = vehicle to vehicle; V2I = vehicle to infrastructure Moderate Important Unimportant
Regulation Significance Current Status (2015) Future Status (2030)
Driver Hours (HOS)
• Maximum 11-hour driving limit after 10 hours of
consecutive rest
• Required to enter work hours into a logbook
• Customized ruling for drivers of trucks (level three or
above) to be able to log more hours consecutively,
while driving in autonomous mode
Emission
• EPA GHG 14*
• EURO VI
• Continued efforts to reduce greenhouse emissions while
making trucks run more efficiently and effectively
• Reduced fuel consumption indirectly reducing emissions
Safety
• Mandates for stability control systems
• Purposed mandates for forward-collision
mitigation, braking, and lane-departure warning
• Every new truck being produced mandated to have
advanced safety systems (sensors, cameras, electronic
controls, and stability) installed, thus enabling
proliferation of autonomous driving technologies
Cyber-security
• None currently • Regulations surrounding cybersecurity to be new to the
trucking industry—with increasing threat of cyber
attacks, protection of autonomous vehicles needed
Commun-ication Network
• Purposed mandate for DSRC for passenger
vehicles
• Trucking mandates for DSRC communication and
implementation of V2X, V2V, and V2I communication
networks to be crucial for safe operation of autonomous
vehicles
Liability
• None currently for autonomous vehicles (testing
still required)
• Insurance, government, society, and the automotive
industry required to come to an understanding of the
risks and safety concerns regarding autonomous
vehicles on the road
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Truck Platooning Market: Current and Future Outlook, Global, 2015 and 2030
Executive Summary—Current and Future Outlook
Market
Status
Technology
Regional
Trends
Country 2015 2030
• OEMs are expected to develop in-house
autonomous solutions through strategic
partnerships.
• Tier I and Tier II suppliers are expected to
partner with OEMs to assist in advanced
autonomous technologies.
• A number of OEMs and research firms
have started experimenting on
autonomous technology by testing their
fleet on public roads.
• The market is beginning to attract other
industry participants and venture capital
firms to invest in autonomous technology.
• Level 2 platooning is expected to enter the
market.
• Every new truck being produced is
mandated to have advanced safety systems
(sensors, cameras, electronic controls, and
stability) installed, thus enabling proliferation
of autonomous driving technologies.
• Daimler and Volvo lead the development
of autonomous technology while
technology providers are working on cost-
effective platooning solutions.
• Otto introduced retro-fits of complete
autonomous technologies.
• The United States is expected to lead the
truck platooning market followed by Europe.
• Asian countries such as Japan and China
are also expected to enter the market.
• OEMs and associations from Europe and
the United States are showcasing
platooning projects in order to push
governments towards implementing
platooning solutions.
• Japan is one of the few other countries
actively involved in platooning projects.
Technology available today has the capability to produce a functional level 3 autonomous truck. However,
challenges must be addressed in regards to regulations, liability, business case, and societal concerns.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
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Research Scope
Vehicle Type
2016 to 2030 Forecast Period
2015 to 2030 Study Period
2015 Base Year
Geographical Scope*
Commercial vehicles (includes light, medium, and heavy duty trucks)
Internal combustion engine (ICE), including diesel and gas Powertrain Type
Global: Europe and North America
*Note: Data from Asia has been included where relevant as approximate values and for comparative purposes. However, Asia is not covered in detail in this analysis.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Truck Platooning Market: Key Questions This Study Will Answer, Global, 2015
What are the current autonomous technologies available for commercial vehicles? How will it evolve
in the future?
What kind of strategies will OEMs use to offer platooning options to fleet operators? Who are the key
OEMs involved in platooning projects?
How will truck platooning help governments, municipalities, and fleet owners looking to reduce costs,
traffic congestion, and carbon footprint?
What are the upcoming technology solutions influencing truck platooning market trends? How will
existing service providers adapt to the shift in technology trends?
How will current and future technologies impact truck platooning growth? Will fleet owners adopt
autonomous technologies? How will this impact growth of the commercial vehicles market in 2025?
Which OEMs are partnered with key service providers? Will the entry of more OEMs affect the growth
of existing market participants?
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Research Background
Source: Frost & Sullivan
This study is an original research service that also expands on content drawn from ongoing research in
the areas of Class 4–8 original equipment and aftermarket trends, including:
• NA53—Strategic Analysis of the Global Platform Strategies of Major HD OEMs
• NCD5—Strategic Outlook of North American Heavy-duty Truck Dealership Focused Revenue
Streams and Growth Opportunities
• NE32—Strategic Outlook of North American Class 6-8 Truck Safety Systems Market
• NAAF—Strategic Analysis of Engine Downsizing Trends of North American Heavy-duty Truck
Manufacturers
• N6A8—Strategic Analysis of the North American Heavy-duty (Class 4-8 Truck) Repair Industry
• ND7A—2015 Outlook of the Global Commercial Vehicle Industry
• NEF9—Strategic Outlook of Global Commercial Vehicle Telematics Market in 2015
• NF41—Global Overview of Truck Video Safety Solutions Market
• NCBE—Prognostics in the European and North American Trucking Industry—Big Data is Creating
all the Difference
• NE67—Impact Analysis of Big Data in the Trucking Industry
• NEC5—Strategic Outlook for Autonomous Heavy-duty Trucks
The study is supplemented by ongoing interactions with vehicle manufacturers, Tier I suppliers,
telematics providers, and freight mobility providers.
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Bendix Freightliner Google Omnitracs
Meritor Volvo/Mack Apple Geotab
Allison Navistar Otto Leddar
Eaton PACCAR Continental AG Bosch
Research Methodology
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Truck Platooning Market: Research Methodology, Global, 2015
Frost & Sullivan’s research services are based on secondary and
primary research data.
Information was extracted from studies and project material in the Frost
& Sullivan database, as well as information gathered from technical
papers, specialized magazines, seminars, and Internet research.
Research
Methodology
Secondary
Research
Primary
Research
More than 25 interviews were conducted over the phone by senior
consultants/industry analysts with OEMs, regulatory authorities, and
distributors. Primary research accounts for 80% of the total research.
Truck Platooning Market: Partial List of Industry Participants, Global, 2015
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2
3
1
Shift to automation is expected to improve efficiency and push governments to introduce
legislation supporting automation and truck platooning. OEMs will start producing in-
house autonomous solutions and form strategic partnerships with technology solution
providers to further develop autonomous technology.
The European and US truck platooning hardware revenue will reach $4.62 billion by
2030. The United States will corner the major share of 85%. This is mainly due to early
implementation of platooning operations with regulatory support.
The European and US truck platooning service revenue will reach $10.01 billion by
2030. The United States will secure the major share of 83%. This is mainly due to
subscription-based models that will exhibit massive growth at a CAGR 28.8% from 2020
to 2030.
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Market Engineering Methodology
One of Frost & Sullivan’s core deliverables
is its Market Engineering studies. They
are based on our proprietary Market
Engineering Methodology. This approach,
developed across the 50 years of
experience assessing global markets,
applies engineering rigor to the often
nebulous art of market forecasting and
interpretation.
A detailed description of the methodology
can be found here.
Source: Frost & Sullivan