Post on 25-Mar-2019
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Demographic Challenges
Coventry
Telford Lichfield
Kidderminster
LeamingtonRedditch
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
The problems
• Birmingham will not meet its projected needs for housing (38,500 deficit to 2031)
• Black Country has now also got capacity problems
• What to do; where to go; how to plan? • Can we learn anything from existing
migration patterns?
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
The Background
• Take-off in population growth post 2001 • Shifting geography of demographic trends – Metropolitan Areas growing after 3 decades of
stagnation • Immigration, births and students
• A divided region? – Deprivation across the Metropolitan areas – Super diversity in Birmingham – Youthful cities, ageing shires
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
2011-2016 Population change
Chan
ge (
thou
sand
s)
-70
-35
0
35
70
105
140
Natural Increase International Migration
WMCA Shires & Unitary
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Age Makeup: 2016
0%
6%
11%
17%
22%
0-14
15-2
9
30-4
4
45-5
9
60-7
4
75+
WMCA Other West Midlands
The Combined Authority’s population younger than rest of West Midlands
Birmingham – “youngest city in Europe”
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Life expectancy
Coventry
Telford Lichfield
Kidderminster
LeamingtonRedditch
Wolverhampton
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Migration – the basics
• Most people stay put • Those that move mostly move locally • Young adults the most likely to move
– Students – Jobs – Setting up home
• Net Migration (inflows minus outflows) usually the tip of a very large iceberg • International migration not covered here but a
major drive of growth since mid 1990s
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Where did residents live one year before 2011 Census?
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Non-mover Other Uk
BirminghamBromsgrove
•Most people stayed put.
•Most likely move in Birmingham is within City.
•In Bromsgrove, more moves from the rest of the West Midlands than moves within District
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Birmingham Movers and Non-Movers 2010-2011
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Non-mover West Midlands
Age 0-15Age 16-24Age 25-49Age 50+
Over 50s the most likely to stay put
!6-24’s the most likely to move to or from other UK regions/countries
25-49s the most likely to move within the West Midlands
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Birmingham: Migration to & from rest of UK in 2015-16
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
0-4 15-19 30-34 45-49 60-64 75-79 90+
InflowOutflow
•Movements greatest among 15-34s
•Losses at all ages except 15-19
•students
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Ethnic groups in Birmingham 2010-2011
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Non-mover West Midlands
WhitePakistaniBlackIndianAll others
70% of people moving between Birmingham and the rest of the West Midlands were white.
Pakistani residents made up 13% of the population, but made up only 4% of those moving in from or out to the West Midlands
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Birmingham: 2010-11 Socio-Economic Groups
Pers
ons
aged
16+
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Non-mover Other Uk
Managerial professions (1+2+3)Intermediate (4+5)Routine/Semi (6+7)Never workedStudents
People in routine/semi-routine jobs less likely to move
Managers and professional more likely to move across boundaries than within City.
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Birmingham Migration 2015-2016
0
7500
15000
22500
30000
Birmingham HMA Other West Midlands
From To
•Greatest interaction with UK beyond the West Midlands and a net gain of 3,000 •Flows to/from Black Country greater than to rest of HMA •Net loss to HMA of 3,900 compared with 3,200 to Black Country •Important links to rest of West Midlands, but flows more balanced
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Household Migration
• Lone person households aged under 65 most mobile
• 2010-11 Birmingham had a net out-movement of about 1,400 households to other parts of the West Midlands – 80% were family households – 49% had dependent children
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
A step change
• Birmingham has long exported people and households to other parts of the West Midlands
• But need to more than double recent flows, to cater for deficit in new housing
• If provided in one place would mean a town the size of Redditch or Tamworth over next 15 years.
Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018
Who will move?
– Newly forming households? – Established households trading up? • Make space on the housing ladder?
• Increase social polarisation?
–Will growing ethnic minorities wish, or be able, to move beyond the City?
– Can migration meet needs for workers and support for ageing populations in the shires?