GJB 2018 01 Final - rtpi.org.uk challenges - Greg... · Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018...

Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018

Demographic Challenges

Coventry

Telford Lichfield

Kidderminster

LeamingtonRedditch


The problems

• Birmingham will not meet its projected needs for housing (38,500 deficit to 2031)

• Black Country has now also got capacity problems

• What to do; where to go; how to plan? • Can we learn anything from existing

migration patterns?


The Background

• Take-off in population growth post 2001 • Shifting geography of demographic trends – Metropolitan Areas growing after 3 decades of

stagnation • Immigration, births and students

• A divided region? – Deprivation across the Metropolitan areas – Super diversity in Birmingham – Youthful cities, ageing shires


2011-2016 Population change

Chan

ge (

thou

sand

s)

-70

-35

0

35

70

105

140

Natural Increase International Migration

WMCA Shires & Unitary


Age Makeup: 2016

0%

6%

11%

17%

22%

0-14

15-2

9

30-4

4

45-5

9

60-7

4

75+

WMCA Other West Midlands

The Combined Authority’s population younger than rest of West Midlands

Birmingham – “youngest city in Europe”


Life expectancy

Coventry

Telford Lichfield

Kidderminster

LeamingtonRedditch

Wolverhampton


Debatable Lands


Focus on Birmingham


Migration – the basics

• Most people stay put • Those that move mostly move locally • Young adults the most likely to move

– Students – Jobs – Setting up home

• Net Migration (inflows minus outflows) usually the tip of a very large iceberg • International migration not covered here but a

major drive of growth since mid 1990s


Where did residents live one year before 2011 Census?

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Non-mover Other Uk

BirminghamBromsgrove

•Most people stayed put.

•Most likely move in Birmingham is within City.

•In Bromsgrove, more moves from the rest of the West Midlands than moves within District


Birmingham Movers and Non-Movers 2010-2011

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Non-mover West Midlands

Age 0-15Age 16-24Age 25-49Age 50+

Over 50s the most likely to stay put

!6-24’s the most likely to move to or from other UK regions/countries

25-49s the most likely to move within the West Midlands


Birmingham: Migration to & from rest of UK in 2015-16

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

0-4 15-19 30-34 45-49 60-64 75-79 90+

InflowOutflow

•Movements greatest among 15-34s

•Losses at all ages except 15-19

•students


Ethnic groups in Birmingham 2010-2011

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Non-mover West Midlands

WhitePakistaniBlackIndianAll others

70% of people moving between Birmingham and the rest of the West Midlands were white.

Pakistani residents made up 13% of the population, but made up only 4% of those moving in from or out to the West Midlands


Birmingham: 2010-11 Socio-Economic Groups

Pers

ons

aged

16+

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Non-mover Other Uk

Managerial professions (1+2+3)Intermediate (4+5)Routine/Semi (6+7)Never workedStudents

People in routine/semi-routine jobs less likely to move

Managers and professional more likely to move across boundaries than within City.


Birmingham Migration 2015-2016

0

7500

15000

22500

30000

Birmingham HMA Other West Midlands

From To

•Greatest interaction with UK beyond the West Midlands and a net gain of 3,000 •Flows to/from Black Country greater than to rest of HMA •Net loss to HMA of 3,900 compared with 3,200 to Black Country •Important links to rest of West Midlands, but flows more balanced


Household Migration

• Lone person households aged under 65 most mobile

• 2010-11 Birmingham had a net out-movement of about 1,400 households to other parts of the West Midlands – 80% were family households – 49% had dependent children


A step change

• Birmingham has long exported people and households to other parts of the West Midlands

• But need to more than double recent flows, to cater for deficit in new housing

• If provided in one place would mean a town the size of Redditch or Tamworth over next 15 years.


Who will move?

– Newly forming households? – Established households trading up? • Make space on the housing ladder?

• Increase social polarisation?

–Will growing ethnic minorities wish, or be able, to move beyond the City?

– Can migration meet needs for workers and support for ageing populations in the shires?


Implications for migration patterns?

Will new housing Increase net migration from Birmingham, and free up housing in Birmingham?

Or Divert existing flows?

Who would move to Tipton rather than Lichfield?

GJB 2018 01 Final - rtpi.org.uk challenges - Greg... · Greg Ball: Futures Project 10 Januray 2018...

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