Post on 15-Aug-2020
2018/10/11
by GLOCOM
5%
47%
24%
24%
(n=1890, )
•––
•––
••
:polarization
• (polarization)–
•
••
Pew Research Center 2014a•
•
• 10
• 1972 712012 90 (American National Election Study
2015c).• Republican Democrat AI
Gentzkow, Shapiro and Taddy 2016
• 1960 unhappy5 2010 unhappy Republican
50 Democrat 30 (Iyengar et al. 2012).
•– BBC
https://www.bbc.com/japanese/37933945
28%
45%
7%
20%
(n=1890, )
:•
–•
–• 40%•
–
• selective exposure)–– SNS– like-minded people
•• (echo chamber)
––
Democrat Republican
•–
• Pew Research Center(2014b)
• Fox NewsNie(2010)
–• Boxell et
al(2017)•
Barbera(2015)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
-3-2
.8-2
.6-2
.4-2
.2 -2-1
.8-1
.6-1
.4-1
.2 -1-0
.8-0
.6-0
.4-0
.2 00.
20.
40.
60.
8 11.
21.
41.
61.
8 22.
22.
42.
62.
8 3
(pol) (unit= )(n=78457, 10 )
•– 2017 8 10 2000
• pol– 10– 4
0 3 3
1 9 2 3 4 5 67 8 9 10
1= 2= 3= 4= 5= 6= 7= 8=
(rad)
•– rad=|pol-(-0.2)|
Weighted OLS VARIABLES rad
5 0.0109*** 0.025
(4.718) 0.0242*** 0.055
(10.05) LINE -0.0211*** -0.068
(-11.99) 0.00427** 0.013
(2.393) 0.0136*** 0.034
(6.360) -0.0173*** -0.040
(-6.929) -0.0184*** -0.052
(-9.208) 0.00840*** 0.028
(4.950)
female=1 -0.109*** -0.100 (-16.71)
( ) 0.00367*** 0.098 (15.83)
6 0.0273*** 0.068 (13.35)
-0.000853 -0.005 (-0.782) Constant 0.413*** (21.47) Observations 40,813 R-squared 0.047
t-statistics in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1
•
•
•
0.57
0.59 0.60
0.57
0.62
0.56
0.59
0.62
0.63 0.63
0.52
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.62
0.64
SNS (n=78,457)
0.47
0.51 0.54
0.58
0.66 0.69
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
20 30 40 50 60 70
•– SNS
SNS•
–
•
–
• 5
–
0.39
0.65
0.44
0.52
0.30
0.50
0.22
0.43
0.14
0.28
0.21
0.25
0.10
0.24
0.13
0.18
0.05
0.17
0.08
0.14
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
20 30 40 50 60 70
9
• 2018 2 ( 2017 8• 1 54,334 (
55– 3861 50,473
•– 10 poli– ( radi
–• pchangei=poli2 – poli1• Rchangei=radi2 radi1
• control)• treatment)
––
1 2 3 4 5
FaceBook1=
2= 3= 4= 5=
1= 33,446 1,366 219 76 1732= 1,303 3,847 595 153 1543= 151 815 945 274 2234= 71 219 400 440 3435= 185 270 324 508 3,973
1
33,446
7,430407
468
(
• Facebook, Twitter,
• LINE( )
– LINE
0.002
-0.004
-0.011
-0.006 -0.003
0.003 0.000
-0.001
-0.020
-0.015
-0.010
-0.005
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
FB Twitter LINE NetNews Blog TVNews WidShow Newspaper
Change of polarization by media usage: keep_usingdifference from no_use
difference
-0.0026 -0.0042
0.0172
-0.0034 -0.0024 -0.0017
-0.0084
-0.0136
-0.0200
-0.0150
-0.0100
-0.0050
0.0000
0.0050
0.0100
0.0150
0.0200
FB Twitter LINE NetNews Blog TVNews WidShow Newspaper
Change of ploarization by media usage: start_usingdifference from no_use
difference
FB Twitter
FB Twitter
•
•
•
•
• 27–
•
-1.35 -1.22 -1.18 -1.17
-1.02 -0.92 -0.92
-0.76 -0.66
-0.54 -0.51 -0.51
-0.43 -0.32 -0.27
0.08 0.20 0.22
0.40 0.57 0.62 0.68 0.70
0.99 1.07
1.36 1.60
-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00
(174)(133)(185)(178)(137)(231)
(79)(197)(343)(313)(205)(126)
(89)(135)(236)(129)(922)
(99)(20)(95)
(159)(531)(376)(188)(361)(204)
(88)
27
•
•
•
• 103 4 1103
•
34,787 2,466 1,273 759 568 385 315 250 211 166 128 94 72 65 54 53
12 1 2 1 2 1 4 8 19
11 2 1 1 1 2 2 6 4 7 6 3 35
10 1 2 1 5 2 6 5 6 4 7 10 11 60
9 4 1 3 3 5 2 6 8 9 10 14 8 9 12 7 16 117
8 9 7 8 8 13 4 7 17 24 21 14 12 8 11 9 6 178
7 21 12 16 10 18 25 28 23 38 29 15 11 11 16 5 4 282
6 23 19 27 23 36 42 46 46 38 28 21 15 3 2 6 2 377
5 43 52 50 64 62 63 61 38 29 23 14 16 8 4 2 2 531
4 111 103 116 122 97 65 44 38 20 15 14 3 3 1 752
3 236 283 192 156 112 60 39 24 16 12 6 5 6 2 1 1 1,151
2 683 408 273 146 102 52 34 11 14 5 4 8 6 1 1,747
1 1,915 648 283 130 59 34 24 14 10 7 8 3 4 1 3,140
0 31,742 932 305 93 64 37 25 25 9 8 9 3 4 1 33,257
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 41,646
0.68 0.32 1.000.47 0.53 1.00
16% >0.69 0.31 1.000.34 0.66 1.00
•
• 32%47%
– 13
– Barbera(2015) Twitter US 3 Spain 4 Germany 4
•
•–– Hanada
•
•–
–
•
•
–
•
• 3~4
•
•
•––
–
•
–
• Pew Research Center, 2014a, "Political Polarization in the American Public: How Increasing Ideological Uniformity and Partisan Antipathy Affect Politics, Compromise and Everyday Life," http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2014/06/6-12-2014-Political-Polarization-Release.pdf
• Pew Research Center, 2014b, "Political Polarization and Media Habits: From Fox News to Facebook, How Liberals and Conservatives keep Up with Politics," http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2014/10/Political-Polarization-and-Media-Habits-FINAL-REPORT-7-27-15.pdf
• Nie, N., Miller, D., Golde, S., Butler, D., Winneg, K., 2010. The world wide web and the U.S. political news market. American Journal of Political Science 54, 428–439.
• Boxell, Levi, Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro 2017 "Is the Internet Causing Political Polarization? Evidence from Demographics" NBER Working Paper 23258
• Barberá, Pablo, 2015, "How Social Media Reduces Mass Political Polarization. Evidence from Germany, Spain, and the United States," Working paper
• http://pablobarbera.com/static/barbera polarization APSA.pdf