Post on 20-Apr-2018
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The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than that intended by Boeing. Boeing is a trademark of The Boeing Company.
Tom Crabtree Regional Director, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes
08 May 2014
Getting the Most Out of the Air Cargo System
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3 billion passengers…44 million tons of air cargo… ..20,000 airport pairs
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0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Containerized cargoNon-containerized dry cargoMain bulk commoditiesTanker cargo
Billions of metric tons loaded - seaborne freight only
World seaborne traffic moves ~90% of all freight*; air cargo moves ~1/3 of goods in terms of value
Sources: UNCTAD, Fearnleys, Clarkson Research Services * excludes intra-EU trade..
Air cargo moves a very small portion of total freight weight , but a significant portion of goods by value
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* Revenue tonne-kilometers
World air cargo traffic has grown 5.2% per year since 1980
Air cargo traffic has slowed to about 1% growth per year since 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
RTK
*s (b
illio
ns)
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Slow trade and air cargo growth mostly driven by weak demand growth
Very deep recession followed by weak recovery in developed economies Trade growth also slowed in early 1990s and 2000s
after recessions
Protectionist measures have increased but their impact is often overstated Very few countries have become more “closed” e.g.
Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador, Egypt
Benefits from trade liberalization not exhausted Bali package signed; TPP & TTIP possible
Supply chains are not becoming less global No evidence of U.S. manufacturing renaissance
Trade patterns becoming more complex
Trade forecast for “addressable market” is 5% through 2030 per IHS Economics
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Merchandise exports %GDP
Manufacturing shipments as a % of GDP
02468
101214161820
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
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The air cargo market grew about 6% in March 2014
Mon
thly
Per
cent
age
Cha
nge
over
Prio
r Yea
r World air cargo traffic growth moving toward trend
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%Mo. % Change - History12-Mo. Avg. History
3.6%
Sources: IATA Carrier Tracker (industry international scheduled freight) and A4A US domestic cargo traffic.
-0.7%
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62% 62% 62% 61% 61% 60% 57% 59% 58% 56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Freighter share of revenue tonne-kilometers
More than half of air cargo traffic is carried on freighters
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Freighter service advantages over passenger belly Cargo focus and control
Timing and routing
Capacity (volume, weight, hazmat & dimensional)
Handling location and ramp proximity
Reliability and predictability
Freighters will remain the leading cargo capacity provider
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20-year forecast: strong long-term growth
3.2% GDP
5.0% Traffic (RPK)
5.0% Cargo (RTK)
2012 to 2032
Passengers 4.1%
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940
210 380
640
130
New freighter demand -- 850 new, 1,450 converted
2013 to 2032 Freighters
Delivery units
2012 Freighters
1,730
2032 Freighters 2,810
Share of fleet
Large >80 tonnes
Medium 40 to 80 tonnes
Standard <45 tonnes
2,300
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Converted
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Keys to a successful air cargo operation A base of operations located in the middle of multiple growing trade lanes The ability to feed to and “de-feed” passenger bellies and freighters:
multi-modal connectivity to both domestic and international flows a reliable truck network – where roads exist!
A dedicated sales and marketing staff Industry presence: press, advertising, relationships with shippers & forwarders Timely and reliable market information: trade & traffic data, capacity data, economic and industrial forecast information Reliable aircraft with the lowest per-tonne costs.
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Slow trade & air cargo growth has been mostly driven by weak demand growth
World air cargo traffic is now recovering toward trend growth
Freighters will continue to carry the majority of air cargo traffic
Successful cargo operations require investment in information, personnel, and equipment
Things to remember
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For more information, please visit our market forecast websites:
Current Market Outlook www.boeing.com/cmo
World Air Cargo Forecast
www.boeing.com/commercial/cargo