Post on 20-Feb-2015
Chromite & Ferrochrome - A Focus on Asia
Dr. Gerhard C. Pariser
Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
March 2011
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Outline
March 2011
I. Global Markets
II. China – Stainless Super Power & FeCr Converter
III. South Africa – Ore Supplier or FeCr Producer?
IV. India – The Next Boom Market?
V. Outlook & Conclusions
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research March 2011
Global Markets
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Chrome – The Essential Element
March 2011
Metallurgical
89%
Foundry Sands
6%
Chemical
3%
Refractory
2%
Firts Use of Chromite Ore 2010
Stainless Steel
72%
Carbon &
Low Alloy
16%
Engineering
Steels
6%
Tool & HSS
1%
Foundries &
Castings
3%
HSLA
1% Special Alloys *
1%
First Use of Chromium Alloys 2010
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Economic Growth drives Stainless …
March 2011
1968
2006 2007
2008
2009
20102011
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Glo
ba
l Sta
inle
ss S
tee
l
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n in
Mill t
Stainless Steel
Corr: 0.99
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Per Capita Stainless Consumption
March 2011
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Pe
r C
ap
ita
Sta
inle
ss U
se,
in k
g
GDP in '000 US$ per Capita (ppp adjusted)
USA
Japan
Germany
China
India
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Economic Growth drives Stainless & FeCr
March 2011
1968
2006 2007
2008
2009
20102011
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Glo
ba
l Sta
inle
ss S
tee
l
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n in
Mill t
Stainless Steel
Corr: 0.99
1968
2006
2007
20082009
20102011
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
Glo
ba
l Fe
rro
ch
rom
e
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n in
Mill t
GDP, in Trill US$ (PPP adjusted)
Ferrochrome Consumption
Corr: 0.98
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Global Charge / HC FeCr Market
March 2011
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Gro
wth
Ra
te 2
00
0 -
20
10
, in
%
Share of Production, in %
Charge & HC FeCr Production
Bra
zil
Others
China
India
Russia
Finland
South Africa
Average Growth Rate: 6.0% p.a.
Kazakhstan
Zimbabwe
Turkey
Sweden
Others incl. Albania,
Romania & Iran
China
Others
India
Other AsiaNAFTA
EU
Japan
Other America
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 20 40 60 80
Gro
wth
Ra
te 2
00
0 -
20
10
in
% p
.a.
Share of FeCr Demand in %
Charge / HC FeCr Demand
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research March 2011
China –
Stainless Super Power &
FeCr Converter
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Global Stainless Steel Consumption
March 2011
China
India
Other Asia
EU27Japan
NAFTA
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 0.5 1 1.5
Gro
wth
Ra
te 1
99
7 -
20
06
in
%
Relative Market Share
2006
1
23
4
5
1: Other Europe
2: Africa
3:Australasia4: Other America
5: Middel East
China
India
Other Asia
EU27
JapanNAFTA
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 0.5 1 1.5
Gro
wth
Ra
te 2
00
1 -
20
10
in
%
Relative Market Share
2010
1
2
3
4
5
1: Other Europe
2: Africa
3:Australasia4: Other America
5: Middel East
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Chinese FeCr Demand
March 2011
2005 2010
Main Supply Source
Others
Russia
Zimbabwe
India
Kazakhstan
South Africa
53.2%
28.2%
14.3%2.4%
1.0%0.9%
21.7% 49.9%27.6%
0.3%
0.5%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
in M
ill t
FeCr Production & Demand
Production
G.R.: 26.9%
Apparent
Consumption
G.R.: 41.7%
Import Surplus
Export Surplus
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
FeCr Production based on imported Ore
March 2011
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ra
tio o
f UG
2, in
%
Cr
Ore
Ex
po
rts
to C
hin
a,
in M
ill t
S. Africa Cr Ore Exports
to China
UG2 Exports
to China
G.R.: 67.4%
Total Ore Exports
to China,
G.R.: 56.1%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cr O
re Im
po
rts, in ´0
00
t
Ch
arg
e /
Hc
Fe
Cr
Pro
du
ctio
n,
in M
ill t
China Chromite Imports
Imports from
South Africa
G.R.: 54.0%
Total Ore Imports,
G.R.: 21.2%
Ferrochrome Production
G.R. 23.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
China FeCr Demand Outlook
March 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
Sta
inle
ss Ste
el M
eltin
g P
rod
uc
tion
in M
ill tFe
Cr Pro
du
ctio
n &
De
ma
nd
, in
Mill t
Production
G.R.: 26.9%
Demand
G.R.: 41.7%
Import
Surplus
Export Surplus
Actual Forecast
Production
G.R.: 5.1%
Demand
G.R.: 10.7%
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research March 2011
South Africa –
Ore Supplier or
FeCr Producer?
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
South Africa‘s Chrome Ore Reserves
March 2011
Rank
in Mill t in % in Mill t in %
South Africa 7,340 77 1 14.8 *) 49.5
Zimbabwe 930 10 2 0.6 1.9
Kazakhstan 387 4 3 3.8 12.8
Finland 120 1.3 4 0.6 1.9
Turkey 70 0.7 5 2.4 8.1
India 67 0.7 6 3.2 10.7
Brazil 17 0.2 7 0.7 2.4
Others 576 6.1 8 3.7 12.5
Total 9,507 100.0 29.9 100.0
*) incl. UG2 & Independent Mines
Source: Departm ent of Mineral Resources, South Africa, Heinz H. Pariser
Chromite Ore Reserve Chromite Ore Output
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
UG2 Mine Production & Tailings
March 2011
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Est. U
tilisatio
n o
f UG
2 Ta
iling
s, in %
in ´
00
0 t
Potentail Output of
UG2 Tailings
Actually Identified
Tailings
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
South Africa Chrome Ore Usage
March 2011
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
in M
ill t
Input Metallurgical Cr Ore
G.R.: 3.2%
Input Other Cr Ore
G.R.: -3.0%
Cr Ore Exports
G.R.: 19.3%
Total Chrome Ore Supply
G.R.: 6.2%
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
South Africa Chrome Ore Market 2010
March 2011
FeCr - Domestic &
Export Sales
Revenues: 3,816 Mill $
Output 14.9 Mill t
Revenues: 1,697 Mill $
Export
Revenues: 1,144 Mill $
Metallurgical
Revenues: 360 Mill $
internal sales
Chemical & Foundry
Revenues: 193 Mill $
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research March 2011
India –
The Next Boom Market?
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Global Stainless Steel Consumption
March 2011
China
India
Other Asia
EU27Japan
NAFTA
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 0.5 1 1.5
Gro
wth
Ra
te 1
99
7 -
20
06
in
%
Relative Market Share
2006
1
23
4
5
1: Other Europe
2: Africa
3:Australasia4: Other America
5: Middel East
China
India
Other Asia
EU27
JapanNAFTA
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 0.5 1 1.5
Gro
wth
Ra
te 2
00
1 -
20
10
in
%
Relative Market Share
2010
1
2
3
4
5
1: Other Europe
2: Africa
3:Australasia4: Other America
5: Middel East
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
India‘s FeCr Demand
March 2011
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
in M
ill t
FeCr Production & Demand
Production
G.R.: 13.3%
Apparent
Consumption
G.R.: 5.6%
Export Surplus
2005 2010
Main Export Destinations
Others
Nethrlands
United States
South Korea
Japan
China
48.9%
19.0%
24.6%
2.5%1.8%
3.2%
23.9%
23.5%
32.5%
5.2%
14.9%
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
India Stainless Production & FeCr Demand Outlook
March 2011
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Sta
inle
ss Ste
el M
eltin
g, in
´00
0 t
Ch
arg
e /
HC
Fe
Cr C
on
sum
pti
on
, in
´0
00
t
Actual Forecast
G.R.: 8.6% G.R.: 9.4%
G.R.: 5.3% G.R.: 8.8%
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research March 2011
Conclusion
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research March 2011
Conclusion
- Global stainless production has come back to historic growth patterns
of some 6% per annum
- Demand for ferrochrome will continue to rise – with China increasing
its already dominant position
- India has and will experience extraordinary growth in stainless – and
a rising ferrochrome demand – but on a different scale than
China
- South Africa is a chrome ore supplier and ferrochrome producer –
but where will it position itself in the future?
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research March 2011
Contact Details
Dr. Gerhard C. Pariser
Heinz H. Pariser
Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research
Scharnstr. 51
46509 Xanten
Germany
Tel.: +49 2801 77 11 0
Email: info@heinzpariser.de
You are always welcome
to contact us.
Source: Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel Market Research March 2011
Panel Discussion
Dr. Danko Koncar, Ruukki Metals
Jürgen Schalamon, Samancor Cr
Robert Yildirim, Yildirim Group / EtiKrom
Mark Midgley, ENRC
Dr. Gerhard Pariser, Heinz H. Pariser Alloy Metals & Steel
Market Research