Collective security, game theory and

international relations

Providence Day School25 February 2013

Adam Seldiswww.mrseldis.com

Is collective security acting in a

country’s best interests?

RedRed BlackBlack

RedRed

BlackBlack

Player 2

Player 11

13

0

03

22

Card game

Player APlayer A Player BPlayer B TotalTotalPair 1Pair 1Pair 2Pair 2Pair 3Pair 3Pair 4Pair 4Pair 5Pair 5Pair 6Pair 6Pair 7Pair 7Pair 8Pair 8Pair 9Pair 9

Pair 10Pair 10

DenyDeny ConfessConfess

DenyDeny

ConfessConfess

Prisoner B

Prisoner A1 yr

1 yr3 yrs

0 yrs

0 yrs3 yrs

2 yrs2 yrs

Prisoners’ Dilemma

How does game theory apply to

international relations?

Afghan War

EscalatEscalatee

NegotiaNegotiatete

Pull outPull out

EscalatEscalatee

NegotiaNegotiatete

Washington

Taliban

Afghan War

EscalatEscalatee

NegotiaNegotiatete

Pull outPull out

EscalatEscalatee

Military stalemate = more killings

Military win for Taliban

Military win for Taliban

NegotiaNegotiatete

Military win for

Washington

Stalemate = no more killings

Political win for Taliban

Washington

Taliban

Afghan War

EscalatEscalatee

NegotiaNegotiatete

Pull outPull out

EscalatEscalatee

NegotiaNegotiatete

Washington

Taliban-1 1 3

-5-3-2

1 0 -3

30-3

WarWar PeacePeace

WarWar

PeacePeace

Country 2

Country 11

13

0

03

22

War or peace?

Collective security

‘League of Nations’. Cartoon taken from Punch

magazine. 28 July 1920

To what extent was WW1 caused by collective security?

Is collective security acting in a

country’s best interests?

Other examples?•Cold War - USA vs USSR

•Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands - Japan vs China

•Falklands/Malvinas Islands - UK vs Argentina

•Nuclear weapons - Iran vs Israel

•http://tinyurl.com/splitorsteal