GAME CHANGE RS 20… · Game-Changing Trends. Nick Axford. Global Director of Research “Top...

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G A M E C H A N G E R S

Avison Young Global

1978YEAR FOUNDED

5,000 +REAL ESTATE

PROFESSIONALS

124OFFICE

LOCATIONS

1,600 +BROKERAGE

PROFESSIONALS

290 MSFUNDER

MANAGEMENT

Avison Young Northern California

2012YEAR FOUNDED

91 +REAL ESTATE

PROFESSIONALS

5OFFICE

LOCATIONS

37 +BROKERAGE

PROFESSIONALS

3.25 MSFUNDER

MANAGEMENT

Fastest Growing Commercial Real Estate Company in the World

G A M E C H A N G E R S

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Presenter
Presentation Notes
Is a US recession on the horizon for 2020?https://www.polleverywhere.com/multiple_choice_polls/4v5NrTeWSyUoLp1nMjUbh

Lead sponsor:

Thank you to our Sponsors

Program sponsor:

Release of INSIGHTS2019 ReportRelease of Global Trends and INSIGHTS2020 Reports

2020 Forecast Global Forecast

Game-Changing Trends

Nick AxfordGlobal Director of Research

“Top trends you need to know about for 2020.”

Avison Young 2020 Forecast

To access national and local market forecasts from across the Avison Young network, please visit:www.avisonyoung.com/2020-forecast

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

Top trends you need to know about for 2020

G A M E C H A N G E R S

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Presentation Notes
Which game-changer will have the greatest regional impact in 2020 and beyond?https://www.polleverywhere.com/multiple_choice_polls/ZKRXAKtRxJ5KOzYDnnkqX

Sacramento is rapidly changing its image as a government town with an influx of a younger labor force from the Bay Area. Sacramento is now one of the top-10 tech talent markets in the U.S. Expect to see major regional office and industrial users such as Centene relocate to Sacramento to take advantage of quality of life, affordable housing, and cultural richness.

Leasing volume totaled more than

3.0 msf in 2019

Market Overview & Outlook

Sacramento Valley 2019 Sacramento Valley 2020

Activity Vacancy Development

Railyards Asking Rates

Vacancy dips to 8.0% due to

strong tenant demand

8.1 msf of proposed projects

currently in the pipeline

The 244-acre Railyard project begins to take

shape

Average asking rates hit $1.97 FS with Class A rents

at $2.35 FS

Thomas AguerManaging Director/Principal

Dozens of cranes rising from construction sites throughout the central business district. Approximately 3,500 residential units are currently under construction & another 3,500 units are planned. The office market will likely resume its healthy pace, with office rates continuing to grow amidst a competitive tenant environment.

Zymergen leased 285K sf in Emeryville

Market Overview & Outlook

East Bay/Oakland 2019 East Bay/Oakland 2020

Deals Asking Rates

Absorption Activity

Surpassed the $4 mark, to reach

$4.27 psf overall

Net absorption totaled 425 KSF, less

than half of 2018

Leasing activity was down, totaling

2.1 MSF in 2019

Charlie AllenManaging Director/Principal

VacancyVacancy grew to

9.0%, up from 8.4% in 2019

Silicon Valley is expected to remain strong in 2020 with historically-low unemployment numbers and solid tenant demand for space by thriving technology companies. Cap rates are at all-time lows and Silicon Valley remains at the top of the list for institutional investors because of the stability of the strong, local tech economy.

Leasing activity totaled 7.7 msf,

down from totals in 2018 and 2017

Market Overview & Outlook

Silicon Valley 2019 Silicon Valley 2020

Demand Development

Absorption Asking Rates

6.3 msf under construction, 75%

preleased

Net absorption totaled 3.7 msf, down 7% year

over year

Asking rates continue to grow, measuring

$4.14 psf, up 9.8% since 2018

Gregg von Thaden Managing Director/Principal

VacancyVacancy dips to

8.0% due to strong tenant

demand

The market as a whole is still showing good momentum. Rates in general are stable; vacancy is near equilibrium levels with activity balancing out new availabilities. The San Mateo County office market is still viewed favorably by tech companies looking to expand.

Stripe, Inc leases 421K SF at Kilroy’s

Oyster Point

Market Overview & Outlook

San Mateo County 2019 San Mateo County 2020

Deals Construction

Absorption Asking Rates

2.0 MSF to be delivered in 2020,

87% preleased

1.74 MSF of net absorption, up 53% from 2018

Average asking totaled $5.08 FS at the close of 2019

Randy KellerManaging Director/Principal

VacancyVacancy dips to

6.5% overall, with 1.5% in San

Bruno/Millbrae

San Francisco is fueled by an unparalleled office market, an abundance of jobs and an ultra-competitive labor pool. Investment sales were up over 160% year-over-year and we predict similar velocity in 2020. Despite an increase in large corporations relocating outside of San Francisco, 75% of office projects underway are 100% preleased. Look for another strong year amongst all product types.

Pinterest leases 490K SF of 88

Bluxome before receiving

entitlements

Market Overview & Outlook

San Francisco 2019 San Francisco 2020

Deals Construction

Absorption Asking Rates

City approves plan to raise

development fees by 143%

2.5 MSF of net absorption, down

34% from 2018

Average asking rates climb to

record-breaking $89.48 FS

Nick SlonekManaging Director/Principal

VacancyVacancy dips to

3.7 % overall, with 2.5% in South

Financial District

Game-Changing Innovation

Data Visualization

John SikaitisChief Innovation Officer

“Building Transparency across CRE Markets and Boosting Productivity for Clients.”

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How well is commercial real estate analytics and data packaged and made available to those who rely upon that information?https://www.polleverywhere.com/multiple_choice_polls/tmDMkaoXZQ0GIvJ5u5G7p

Game-Changing Innovation

Data Visualization

John SikaitisChief Innovation Officer

“Building Transparency across CRE Markets and Boosting Productivity for Clients.”

Forward, together.A data revolution is upon us

San Francisco, CAJanuary 29, 2020

Data

In 2012, only 0.5% of all data was analyzed.

90% of all data has been created in the last two years.

Digital economy = $11.5 trillion, = to 15.5% of GDP & has grown 2.5x faster than GDP over the past 15 years

In CRE, we love

SaaS

Save here Analyze here Present here

And thus still are largely operating in

We must shift from

SaaS DaaSData-agnosticReactiveTacticalSituational

Data-obsessedProactiveStrategicPlatform

At AY, we are now becoming data obsessed

• Our cities more transparent• Our processes more efficient• Our people more productive,

empowered and enabled• Our delivery to you more strategic• Our clients more successful

With ambition to

Deliver products at the intersection of data, analytics, visualization and technology that make

And so our 1st product is focused on the 99% that connects us

Properties Companies Transactions & activity

Our data warehouse revolves around

Warehouse to store & destination for you to access

Properties

Photos

Developments

Renderings

DevelopersOwners

Land sale compsCapital stacks

Spaces

Availabilities

Floorplans

Tenants

Lease comps

Lease proposals

Lease expirations

Building sale comps

Debt details

Market scoop

In plain terms, it’s

Stacking plans

OMs, BOVs & rent rolls

Zoning

Modern architecture

Accessibility anywhere

Data-obsession Smart capture

Automatedefficiencies

With more Instagram and less CoStar

Market Intelligence App delivering H1 2020

City Visualization Tool delivering H2 2020

Forward, together.

G A M E C H A N G E R S

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Presentation Notes
Who will be elected President in 2020?https://www.polleverywhere.com/multiple_choice_polls/Z7kzwestFTBnPW0StxHhu

Economic and Industry Keynote

The Wild and Crazy 2020 Election

Greg ValliereChief Global Strategist Horizon Investments

“An inside look at this extraordinary election –the races for the White House and Congress –and the implications for investors, the markets and the economy.”

G A M E C H A N G E R S

Thank you for coming