Post on 20-Nov-2015
description
The Economy
3.9%
-0.4%
-2.2%
3.1%
2.5%
1.3%
4.0%
3.1% 3.0%
1.8%
-0.3%
-2.8%
2.5%
1.6%
2.3% 2.2% 2.4%
3.2%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Est.
New York City and U.S. Economic Growth NYC GCP US GDP
Projected
NYC's Export Industries Performance in the Recovery (measured by change in national employment share, 4Q2014 vs 4Q2009)
NYC Industries that Gained Employment Share
Motion Pictures & Sound Recording
Advertising
Colleges & Universities
Computer Systems
Accounting & Related Services
Management & Technical Consulting
Telecommunications
Broadcasting
Architectural and Engineering Services
Publishing
Finance & Insurance
NYC Industries that Lost Employment Share
Manufacturing
Legal Services
8.2%
-2.3%
0.8%
1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4%
3.9%
0.4%
1.7%
2.8%
2.0% 1.7% 1.3%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NYC Wage Growth Compared to Metro Area Inflation Rate NYC Wage Growth Metro Area Inflation Rate
Low Wage Industries 24.6%
Mid Wage Industries 52.7%
High Wage
Industries 22.6%
Low Wage Industries 59.2%
Mid Wage Industries 18.3%
High Wage
Industries 22.5%
Change in Composition of Job Creation in NYC
Job Distribution as of December 2009 Job Growth Since December 2009 to Present
The Budget
10.0%
2.3%
7.3% 7.6%
3.4%
4.2%
0.4%
1.7%
6.7%
3.9%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Expenditure Growth Rate (Adjusted for Prior Year Resources)
4.7% Avg
11.3%
10.0%
11.5%
0.6%
-7.1%
3.3%
8.5%
4.4%
8.6%
5.8%
-8%
-3%
2%
7%
12%
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Local Tax Revenue Growth Rate
5.5% Avg
11.6%
2.3%
8.8%
5.4%
-2.9%
4.4% 4.0%
1.5%
7.1%
2.6%
-8%
-3%
2%
7%
12%
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
State and Federal Revenue Growth Rate
2.5% Avg
The Proportion of State and Federal Aid in the Citys Budget Decline in our Fair Share of Federal and State Revenue
18.5%
17.2%
16.8%
15.5%
15.0%
12.3% 11.9%
10.6%
11.9%
9.3%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
State Share Federal Share
$7.7 Billion
$2 Billion
Missed Opportunities Money Left on the Table
NYCHA 2006-2014
$692 million Cumulative
DOE 2012-2014
$779 million Cumulative
Operating Subsidies
$76
Section 8 Vouchers
$263
Energy Incentives
$353
E-Rate $120
Medicaid for Special Ed
$356 State APPR
Penalty $303
The Administrations FY 16 Budget Adds
$16 Million for Rental Assistance for the Homeless
$11 Million to EMS to Cut Response Times
$10 Million to NYPD to Increase Police Cadet Headcount
$4.2 Million to the Department for Updated Bulletproof Vests
Expenditures Adjusted for Pre-payments
($ in millions) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 15- 19 Annual Growth
Salaries and Wages $23,898 $24,550 $24,683 $26,075 $27,504 15.1% 3.6%
Debt Service 6,242 7,031 7,414 7,736 8,051 29.0% 6.6%
Health Insurance 5,206 5,577 5,923 6,327 6,849 31.6% 7.1%
Other Fringe Benefits 3,368 3,509 3,663 3,859 4,069 20.8% 4.8%
J & C 695 710 746 782 817 17.5% 4.1%
Subtotal $39,409 $41,376 $42,429 $44,749 $47,255 20.0% 4.7%
Pensions $8,455 $8,405 $8,375 $8,360 $8,457 0.0% 0.0%
Medicaid 6,447 6,415 6,415 6,415 6,415 -0.5% -0.1%
Public Assistance 1,476 1,407 1,413 1,413 1,413 -4.3% -1.1%
Other OTPS 23,304 22,042 22,256 22,643 22,728 -2.5% -0.6%
Subtotal $39,682 $38,269 $38,495 $38,831 $39,013 -1.7% -0.4%
Total $79,091 $79,646 $80,888 $83,610 $86,304 9.1% 2.2%
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
$19.5
$20.5
$21.5
$22.5
$23.5
$24.5
$25.5
$26.5
$27.5
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Pens
ion
Con
trib
utio
ns ($
in B
illio
ns)
Wag
es a
nd S
alar
ies
($ in
Bill
ions
)
Average Growth ($ in millions)
Salaries
Pensions
Salaries
Pensions Change in Avg.
Salary Growth Change in Avg. Pension Growth
FY 2009 FY 2013 $120 $447 0.5% 6.5%
FY 2013 FY 2019 $867 $67 3.6% 0.8% $747 ($380)
Wages and Salary Growth Up As Pension Contribution Growth is Down Wages and Salaries Pension Contribution
Citywide Efficiency Savings Program
Following the fiscal crisis of the 1970s, the City regularly implemented gap closing programs - PEGs
The City saved more than $6.5 billion in FY14 from PEGs implemented between 2008 and 2013
If the City implemented an agency efficiency program equivalent in scale to those of the past, we would save $1 billion in FY16 alone
If that program were continued, together with new savings initiatives each year, the cumulative impact over those years could be $10 billion by FY19
$30.6 $28.6 $28.2 $26.6 $27.9
$34.7 $33.7
$61.7
$54.1 $53.7
$67.7
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 Feb-15
Four-Year Commitment Plan Ten-Year Strategy
Four-Year Commitment Plan and Ten Year Capital Strategy $
in b
illio
ns
The Administrations Capital Strategy Additions
$5.3 Billion more for Education
$851 million more for Economic Development and Business Services.
$4.5 billion more for HPD
NYCHAs City-funded capital budget, more than doubled from $63.5 million to $145.7 million.
FY 2014 Actual to Planned Capital Commitments
The Report examined over $14 billion of Planned Capital Commitments, 25 Agencies and over 1,600 budget lines
Sanitation achieved 89 percent of its commitments
Since FY 2005, the City had, on average, achieved 60 percent of its planned commitments
Only 52 percent of Planned Capital Commitments were Achieved, the Second Lowest percentage over the Past Ten Years
The Parks Department achieved 24 percent of its commitments, the lowest of all major City agencies
Percent of Actual Commitments vs. Plan - All Funds
67%
61%
67% 66%
58%
66%
54% 55%
48% 52%
60%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Avg. 2005-2013
Note: The City existing measure of actual commitments is relative to total commitments after the reserve for unattained commitments. Using this measure, the FY 2014 percent achieved would be 68% compared to 52% as shown above.
Agency Actual FY 2014 Commitments
FY 2015 Executive Plan Commitments
Difference % Achieved
Sanitation (DSNY) 277 310 (34) 89.4%
Education (DOE) 2,060 2,513 (453) 82.0%
Environmental Protection (DEP) 1,160 1,663 (503) 69.8%
Transportation (DOT) 837 1,351 (514) 62.0%
Housing Preservation & Development (HPD)* 439 747 (308) 58.8%
*Includes commitment for New York City Housing Authority
Five Best Performing Agencies in Achieving Capital Commitments
$ in millions (With Planned Capital Commitments Greater Than $100 Million)
Agency Actual FY 2014 Commitments
FY 2015 Executive Plan Commitments
Difference % Achieved
Sanitation (DSNY) 277 310 (34) 89.4%
Education (DOE) 2,060 2,513 (453) 82.0%
Environmental Protection (DEP) 1,160 1,663 (503) 69.8%
Transportation (DOT) 837 1,351 (514) 62.0%
Housing Preservation & Development (HPD)* 439 747 (308) 58.8%
*Includes commitment for New York City Housing Authority
Five Best Performing Agencies in Achieving Capital Commitments
$ in millions (With Planned Capital Commitments Greater Than $100 Million)
Agency Actual FY 2014 Commitments
FY 2015 Executive Plan Commitments
Difference % Achieved
Sanitation (DSNY) 277 310 (34) 89.4%
Education (DOE) 2,060 2,513 (453) 82.0%
Environmental Protection (DEP) 1,160 1,663 (503) 69.8%
Transportation (DOT) 837 1,351 (514) 62.0%
Housing Preservation & Development (HPD)* 439 747 (308) 58.8%
*Includes commitment for New York City Housing Authority
Five Best Performing Agencies in Achieving Capital Commitments
$ in millions (With Planned Capital Commitments Greater Than $100 Million)
Agency Actual FY 2014 Commitments
FY 2015 Executive Plan Commitments
Difference % Achieved
Sanitation (DSNY) 277 310 (34) 89.4%
Education (DOE) 2,060 2,513 (453) 82.0%
Environmental Protection (DEP) 1,160 1,663 (503) 69.8%
Transportation (DOT) 837 1,351 (514) 62.0%
Housing Preservation & Development (HPD)* 439 747 (308) 58.8%
*Includes commitment for New York City Housing Authority
Five Best Performing Agencies in Achieving Capital Commitments
$ in millions (With Planned Capital Commitments Greater Than $100 Million)
Agency Actual FY 2014 Commitments FY 2015 Executive Plan Commitments Difference % Achieved
Parks and Recreation (DPR) 365 1,516 (1,151) 24.1%
Cultural Affairs (DCLA) 215 713 (498) 30.1%
Small Business Services (SBS) 278 892 (614) 31.2%
Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) 242 718 (476) 33.7%
Corrections (DOC) 125 282 (158) 44.3%
Five Worst Performing Agencies in Achieving Capital Commitments
$ in millions (With Planned Capital Commitments Greater Than $100 Million)
Risks and Offsets ($ in millions) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 City Stated Gap $0 $0 ($1,048) ($1,370) ($2,074)
Tax Revenues Property Tax $0 $113 $320 $210 $1,050 Personal Income Tax 232 424 542 559 517 Business Taxes (50) (53) (25) 60 50 Sales Tax 0 21 33 30 20 Real-Estate-Related Taxes 117 228 219 36 (137) Subtotal $299 $733 $1,089 $895 $1,500
Speed Camera Revenues $5 $20 $6 $0 $0
Expenditures Overtime ($76) ($174) ($100) ($100) ($100) DOE Medicaid Reimbursement (60) (80) (80) (80) (80) DOE Full Day UPK State Support 0 (40) (40) (42) (42) Variable Interest Rate Savings 100 50 0 0 0 General Reserve 300 0 0 0 0 Prior-Year Estimates Adjustment 500 0 0 0 0 Subtotal $764 ($244) ($220) ($222) ($222)
Total (Risks)/Offsets $1,068 $509 $875 $673 $1,278
Restated (Gap)/Surplus $1,068 $509 ($173) ($697) ($796)
Slide Number 1The EconomySlide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6The BudgetSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10The Proportion of State and Federal Aid in the Citys Budget Decline in our Fair Share of Federal and State RevenueMissed Opportunities Money Left on the Table Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Four-Year Commitment Plan and Ten Year Capital StrategySlide Number 18Slide Number 19Percent of Actual Commitments vs. Plan - All FundsSlide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27