FY 2015 Feb Plan Presentation

The Economy

3.9%

-0.4%

-2.2%

3.1%

2.5%

1.3%

4.0%

3.1% 3.0%

1.8%

-0.3%

-2.8%

2.5%

1.6%

2.3% 2.2% 2.4%

3.2%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Est.

New York City and U.S. Economic Growth NYC GCP US GDP

Projected

NYC's Export Industries Performance in the Recovery (measured by change in national employment share, 4Q2014 vs 4Q2009)

NYC Industries that Gained Employment Share

Motion Pictures & Sound Recording

Advertising

Colleges & Universities

Computer Systems

Accounting & Related Services

Management & Technical Consulting

Telecommunications

Broadcasting

Architectural and Engineering Services

Publishing

Finance & Insurance

NYC Industries that Lost Employment Share

Manufacturing

Legal Services

8.2%

-2.3%

0.8%

1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4%

3.9%

0.4%

1.7%

2.8%

2.0% 1.7% 1.3%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

NYC Wage Growth Compared to Metro Area Inflation Rate NYC Wage Growth Metro Area Inflation Rate

Low Wage Industries 24.6%

Mid Wage Industries 52.7%

High Wage

Industries 22.6%

Low Wage Industries 59.2%

Mid Wage Industries 18.3%

High Wage

Industries 22.5%

Change in Composition of Job Creation in NYC

Job Distribution as of December 2009 Job Growth Since December 2009 to Present

The Budget

10.0%

2.3%

7.3% 7.6%

3.4%

4.2%

0.4%

1.7%

6.7%

3.9%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Expenditure Growth Rate (Adjusted for Prior Year Resources)

4.7% Avg

11.3%

10.0%

11.5%

0.6%

-7.1%

3.3%

8.5%

4.4%

8.6%

5.8%

-8%

-3%

2%

7%

12%


Local Tax Revenue Growth Rate

5.5% Avg

11.6%

2.3%

8.8%

5.4%

-2.9%

4.4% 4.0%

1.5%

7.1%

2.6%

-8%

-3%

2%

7%

12%


State and Federal Revenue Growth Rate

2.5% Avg

The Proportion of State and Federal Aid in the Citys Budget Decline in our Fair Share of Federal and State Revenue

18.5%

17.2%

16.8%

15.5%

15.0%

12.3% 11.9%

10.6%

11.9%

9.3%

8%

12%

16%

20%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

State Share Federal Share

$7.7 Billion

$2 Billion

Missed Opportunities Money Left on the Table

NYCHA 2006-2014

$692 million Cumulative

DOE 2012-2014

$779 million Cumulative

Operating Subsidies

$76

Section 8 Vouchers

$263

Energy Incentives

$353

E-Rate $120

Medicaid for Special Ed

$356 State APPR

Penalty $303

The Administrations FY 16 Budget Adds

$16 Million for Rental Assistance for the Homeless

$11 Million to EMS to Cut Response Times

$10 Million to NYPD to Increase Police Cadet Headcount

$4.2 Million to the Department for Updated Bulletproof Vests

Expenditures Adjusted for Pre-payments

($ in millions) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 15- 19 Annual Growth

Salaries and Wages $23,898 $24,550 $24,683 $26,075 $27,504 15.1% 3.6%

Debt Service 6,242 7,031 7,414 7,736 8,051 29.0% 6.6%

Health Insurance 5,206 5,577 5,923 6,327 6,849 31.6% 7.1%

Other Fringe Benefits 3,368 3,509 3,663 3,859 4,069 20.8% 4.8%

J & C 695 710 746 782 817 17.5% 4.1%

Subtotal $39,409 $41,376 $42,429 $44,749 $47,255 20.0% 4.7%

Pensions $8,455 $8,405 $8,375 $8,360 $8,457 0.0% 0.0%

Medicaid 6,447 6,415 6,415 6,415 6,415 -0.5% -0.1%

Public Assistance 1,476 1,407 1,413 1,413 1,413 -4.3% -1.1%

Other OTPS 23,304 22,042 22,256 22,643 22,728 -2.5% -0.6%

Subtotal $39,682 $38,269 $38,495 $38,831 $39,013 -1.7% -0.4%

Total $79,091 $79,646 $80,888 $83,610 $86,304 9.1% 2.2%

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

$11

$12

$19.5

$20.5

$21.5

$22.5

$23.5

$24.5

$25.5

$26.5

$27.5

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Pens

ion

Con

trib

utio

ns ($

in B

illio

ns)

Wag

es a

nd S

alar

ies

($ in

Bill

ions

)

Average Growth ($ in millions)

Salaries

Pensions

Salaries

Pensions Change in Avg.

Salary Growth Change in Avg. Pension Growth

FY 2009 FY 2013 $120 $447 0.5% 6.5%

FY 2013 FY 2019 $867 $67 3.6% 0.8% $747 ($380)

Wages and Salary Growth Up As Pension Contribution Growth is Down Wages and Salaries Pension Contribution

Citywide Efficiency Savings Program

Following the fiscal crisis of the 1970s, the City regularly implemented gap closing programs - PEGs

The City saved more than $6.5 billion in FY14 from PEGs implemented between 2008 and 2013

If the City implemented an agency efficiency program equivalent in scale to those of the past, we would save $1 billion in FY16 alone

If that program were continued, together with new savings initiatives each year, the cumulative impact over those years could be $10 billion by FY19

$30.6 $28.6 $28.2 $26.6 $27.9

$34.7 $33.7

$61.7

$54.1 $53.7

$67.7

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 Feb-15

Four-Year Commitment Plan Ten-Year Strategy

Four-Year Commitment Plan and Ten Year Capital Strategy $

in b

illio

ns

The Administrations Capital Strategy Additions

$5.3 Billion more for Education

$851 million more for Economic Development and Business Services.

$4.5 billion more for HPD

NYCHAs City-funded capital budget, more than doubled from $63.5 million to $145.7 million.

FY 2014 Actual to Planned Capital Commitments

The Report examined over $14 billion of Planned Capital Commitments, 25 Agencies and over 1,600 budget lines

Sanitation achieved 89 percent of its commitments

Since FY 2005, the City had, on average, achieved 60 percent of its planned commitments

Only 52 percent of Planned Capital Commitments were Achieved, the Second Lowest percentage over the Past Ten Years

The Parks Department achieved 24 percent of its commitments, the lowest of all major City agencies

Percent of Actual Commitments vs. Plan - All Funds

67%

61%

67% 66%

58%

66%

54% 55%

48% 52%

60%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Avg. 2005-2013

Note: The City existing measure of actual commitments is relative to total commitments after the reserve for unattained commitments. Using this measure, the FY 2014 percent achieved would be 68% compared to 52% as shown above.

Agency Actual FY 2014 Commitments

FY 2015 Executive Plan Commitments

Difference % Achieved

Sanitation (DSNY) 277 310 (34) 89.4%

Education (DOE) 2,060 2,513 (453) 82.0%

Environmental Protection (DEP) 1,160 1,663 (503) 69.8%

Transportation (DOT) 837 1,351 (514) 62.0%

Housing Preservation & Development (HPD)* 439 747 (308) 58.8%

*Includes commitment for New York City Housing Authority

Five Best Performing Agencies in Achieving Capital Commitments

$ in millions (With Planned Capital Commitments Greater Than $100 Million)

Agency Actual FY 2014 Commitments FY 2015 Executive Plan Commitments Difference % Achieved

Parks and Recreation (DPR) 365 1,516 (1,151) 24.1%

Cultural Affairs (DCLA) 215 713 (498) 30.1%

Small Business Services (SBS) 278 892 (614) 31.2%

Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) 242 718 (476) 33.7%

Corrections (DOC) 125 282 (158) 44.3%

Five Worst Performing Agencies in Achieving Capital Commitments

$ in millions (With Planned Capital Commitments Greater Than $100 Million)

Risks and Offsets ($ in millions) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 City Stated Gap $0 $0 ($1,048) ($1,370) ($2,074)

Tax Revenues Property Tax $0 $113 $320 $210 $1,050 Personal Income Tax 232 424 542 559 517 Business Taxes (50) (53) (25) 60 50 Sales Tax 0 21 33 30 20 Real-Estate-Related Taxes 117 228 219 36 (137) Subtotal $299 $733 $1,089 $895 $1,500

Speed Camera Revenues $5 $20 $6 $0 $0

Expenditures Overtime ($76) ($174) ($100) ($100) ($100) DOE Medicaid Reimbursement (60) (80) (80) (80) (80) DOE Full Day UPK State Support 0 (40) (40) (42) (42) Variable Interest Rate Savings 100 50 0 0 0 General Reserve 300 0 0 0 0 Prior-Year Estimates Adjustment 500 0 0 0 0 Subtotal $764 ($244) ($220) ($222) ($222)

Total (Risks)/Offsets $1,068 $509 $875 $673 $1,278

Restated (Gap)/Surplus $1,068 $509 ($173) ($697) ($796)

Slide Number 1The EconomySlide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6The BudgetSlide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10The Proportion of State and Federal Aid in the Citys Budget Decline in our Fair Share of Federal and State RevenueMissed Opportunities Money Left on the Table Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Four-Year Commitment Plan and Ten Year Capital StrategySlide Number 18Slide Number 19Percent of Actual Commitments vs. Plan - All FundsSlide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27

FY 2015 Feb Plan Presentation

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