Presentation at Stormont February 2013

Professor Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre & University of Manchester

From rhetoric to reality Facing the challenges of climate change

Presentation outline

§  Current aspirations and emission trends

§  Why we should strive for 2°C

§  The levels of mitigation required of Northern Ireland

§  Behavioural and technical opportunities

§  Summary & messages for policy makers

… the IEA view

“When I look at this [CO2] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”

Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist

… and according to the World Bank, at just 4°C

"There will be water and food fights everywhere," Jim Yong Kim – WB president

The global context of Climate Change

… how are emissions changing & where are they heading

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… yet emissions have continued to rise (~6% in 2010, ~3% 2011 & 12)

Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

… so what of future emissions?

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Energy system design lives (lock-in)

§  Supply technologies 25-50 year

§  Large scale infrastructures

§  Built environment

§  Aircraft and ships ~30 years

30-100 years

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0 … and assuming current mitigation plans

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~3000GtCO2 for 2000-2050

~5000GtCO2 for 2000-2100

… i.e. a 4°C – 6°C rise between 2050 & 2100

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… outside chance of 2°C

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… but building low/zero carbon energy supply needs to begin now

Deman d

Supply & demand

Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

So what of Northern Ireland?

It is a signatory to:

§  the UK Climate Change Act (??)

§  the Copenhagen Accord

§  the Cancun & Durban Agreements

§  and in May 2012 the G8 Camp David agreement

Copenhagen Accord et al & G8 Camp David (2012)

Northern Ireland has committed to make its fair contribution to

“To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity”

So for Northern Ireland, the mitigation question is clear

What emission reductions give a good chance of staying below 2°C?

… and for adaptation, in case the global community fails to mitigate …

What temperatures/climate should Northern Ireland prepare for?

… but why 2°C ?

2001

2ºC ‘Guardrail’

Dangerous

Acceptable

2001 2009

Is 2°C – dangerous or extremely dangerous?

Is 1°C the new 2°C?

… sticking with 2°C?

Emission-reduction targets •  UK, EU & Global - long term reduction targets

UK’s 80% reduction in CO2e by 2050

EU 60%-80% “ 2050

Bali 50% “ 2050

•  CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years

•  2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous climate change (2°C)

•  Cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon budget)

•  This fundamentally rewrites the chronology of climate change - from long term gradual reductions

- to urgent & radical reductions

factor in…

the latest emissions data

what is the scale of the global ‘problem’ we now face?

Things are getting worse! Global CO2 emission trends?

~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs ~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007

~ 6% p.a. 2009-2010

~ 3% for 2011 & 12

What does:

•  This failure to reduce emissions & •  The latest science on cumulative emissions

•  Say about a 2°C emissions reduction pathway?

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60 2015 peak Medium DL2015 peak High DL2015 peak High DH2020 peak High DL2020 peak High DH

10-20% annual reductions

for energy emissions? (with 2020 peak)

Total Decarbonisation

by ~2035-45

No emission space for coal, gas, or shale gas – even with CCS!

… what about a 4°C future?

If this all looks too difficult

... & such a reduction rate is achievable

so is aiming for 4°C more realistic?

For 4°C & emissions peaking by 2020 a

~ 3.5% p.a. reduction in CO2 from energy is necessary

For 4ºC global mean surface temperature

5ºC - 6ºC global land mean

… & increase ºC on the hottest days of:

6ºC - 8ºC in China

8ºC - 10ºC in Central Europe

10ºC -12ºC in New York

In low latitudes 4ºC gives

up to 40% reduction in maize & rice

as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050

There is a widespread view that 4°C is:

§  incompatible with an organised global community

§  beyond ‘adaptation’

§  devastating to eco-systems

§  highly unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points)

… consequently …

4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs

Before despairing …

Have we got the agency to achieve the unprecedented reductions rates linked to an outside chance of 2°C ?

To put some numbers on this non-marginal challenge for energy •  10% reduction in emissions year on year

~40% reduction by ~2015 (c.f. 1990) ~70% ~2020 ~90+% ~2030

Impossible?

… is living with a 4°C global temperature rise by 2050-70 less impossible?

Agency

•  Equity – a message of hope – perhaps?

•  Technology – how far, how fast & how soon?

Little chance of changing polices aimed at 7 billion

… but how many people need to make the necessary changes?

Pareto’s 80:20 rule

80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved

~80% of emissions from ~20% of population

run this 3 times

~50% of emissions from ~1% of population

Or more realistically:

~40% to 60% from ~1% to 5%

- who’s in the 1% to 5%?

•  Climate scientists

•  Climate journalists & pontificators

•  OECD (& other) academics

•  Anyone who gets on a plane

•  All MLAs?

Are we sufficiently concerned to

… make or have enforced substantial personal sacrifices/changes to our lifestyles

To accept a steady-state rather than growing economy?

NOW ?

Technical AGENCY – another message of hope

Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Powerstation Transmission Electricity

Consumption Light, Refrign

10 50 54 120 133

The Electricity system

Demand opportunities dwarf those from supply in short-term

Car efficiency (without rebound)

•  UK mean car emissions ~175g/km (new ~150g/km)

•  EU 2015 plan 130g/km (fleet mean with buy out)

•  2008 BMW 109g/km, VW, 85-99g/km; 1998 Audi A2 ~ 75g/km

•  ~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km

~50% CO2 reduction by 2020 with no new technology

•  Reverse recent trends in occupancy ~70% by 2020

To summarise…

Uncomfortable implications of conservative assumptions If … •  Link between cumulative emissions & temp’ is broadly correct •  Industrialising (non-OECD) nations peak emissions by 2025/30 •  There are rapid reductions in deforestation & food emissions •  No ‘discontinuities’ (tipping points) occur

& Stern/CCC/IEA’s “feasible” reductions of 3-4% p.a. is achieved

2°C stabilisation is virtually impossible

4°C by 2050-2070 looks ‘likely’ (could be earlier & on the way to 6°C+)

For policy makers the message is simple but uncomfortable

§  Should avoid 4°C at all costs

§  Need ~70% decarbonisation over next decade or so

§  Only small % of global population need to mitigate

§  Low carbon energy supply is too little too late in the West

§  Principal response is to reduce energy demand now

§  Carbon trading & prices are not viable for non-marginal (large) reductions

Headline messages

§  Change behaviour - today (producers and consumers)

§  Improve technology - now & over the next few years

§  Consume less

… & for Northern Ireland, the challenge is: Mitigation - a 60-70% reduction in ‘total’ emissions by ~2020 Adaptation - plan for impacts of up to 4C or more by 2050-70 … and in both of these equity & poverty are pivotal issues

– at home and abroad!

So … for MLAs

§  Lead by example

§  Don’t be the exception - (cars, planes, ships – all argue to be treated leniently)

§  Don’t hide behind/blame of others - (UK blames China, China blame US …)

§  Consider the system - (e.g. shale’s impact on coal use, etc.)

§  Acknowledge it is not going to be easy – it will often hurt

Be courageous both as leaders and as citizens

Mitigate for 2°C, but plan for 4°C – or more

Finally,

“… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.”

Anderson & Bows Beyond ‘dangerous climate change

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Jan 2011

Presentation at Stormont February 2013

Professor Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre & University of Manchester

Thank you