Climate change - IEMA presentations/201703… · Professor of Energy & Climate Change web:...
Transcript of Climate change - IEMA presentations/201703… · Professor of Energy & Climate Change web:...
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Kevin AndersonProfessor of Energy & Climate Change
web: kevinanderson.info
twitter: @KevinClimate
Climate change:
how informed hope & action can Trump despair
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Outline
where do we stand on climate change?
what would our school report say?
the challenge in terms of carbon budgets
was Paris rhetorical guff or a genuine commitment?
… assuming the latter & with a focus on CO2 ...
what rates of ‘mitigation’ do ‘we’ need to achieve 2°C
why such optimism (NETs etc)
if we continute to choose to fail where are heading
if we choose to succed – what do we need to do
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Richard Feynman on climate change & Paris
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over
public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.
Richard P. Feynman.
Shuttle Presidential Commission 1986
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My Pre-Paris provocation
In developing 2°C emission scenarios,
we’ve applied questionable
assumptions and fine-tuned our
analysis to align with political &
economic sensibilities.
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Backdrop to Paris (& latest IPCC reports)
The mitigation message has changed little in the last twenty five years
Annual emissions ~60% higher than at time of the first report in 1990
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Backdrop to Paris (& latest IPCC reports)
in terms of temperature (2°C) rise by 2100,
it’s carbon budgets that matter,
not long-term (2050) targets
i.e. the more we emit today – the less we can emit tomorrow
… this has fundemental political repercussions ....
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Thinking of this graphically…
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The carbon budget (e.g. for 2°C) is the area under the curve
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The carbon budget (e.g. for 2°C) is the area under the curve
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The Carbon Budget
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We emit additional CO2
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If we delay stringent
mitigation today
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Returning to the
Paris Agreement
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Paris Agreement
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Paris Agreement – An important diplomatic triumph
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Paris Agreement – An important diplomatic triumph
… hold the increase in global average temperature to
well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C
…to undertake rapid reductions in accordance with best science
…on the basis of equity, and efforts to eradicate poverty.
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‘Issues’ with the Paris Agreement
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no reference to fossil fuels or decarbonisation
aviation and shipping exempt from any action
national promises to reduce emissions add up to 3 to 4°C
… with no major review until ~2023; i.e.~300 billion tonnes of CO2 from now
fundamental reliance on highly speculative negative emission technologies
‘Issues’ with the Paris Agreement
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Before Paris … 4°C to 6°C
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
With Paris… national pledges add up to...
3°C to 4°C
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
And to stay “well below 2°C”
- the carbon budget remaining from 2017 is:
- approx. 800 billion tonnes CO2 (i.e. 800GtCO2)
3°C to 4°C
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
To move rapidly from current to 2°C pathways, requires
Immediate & deep cuts in ENERGY DEMAND
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Zero CO2 ENERGY SUPPLY is also essential
with planning & construction starting now
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Paris also has an important EQUITY dimension
- wealthy nations need to transition to zero-CO2 ahead of poorer nations
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Returning to Carbon Budgets
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In 3 to 13 years we’ll use all the 1.5°C energy-CO2 budget
… from a budget perspective
it is now too late for 1.5°C (?)
For 1.5°C
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Poorer & less-industrialised nations: zero CO2 energy by ~2050
Wealthy industrialised nations: zero CO2 energy by ~2035
i.e. for the UK, >12% p.a. cuts in emissions of CO2 starting now
(a 50% reducution by 2020 & 75% by 2025)
And for 2°C:
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How can this fit with the Paris euphoria?
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
… because policymakers have received a different story
- their advice is dominated by modelers (IAM)
- who use much bigger 2°C carbon budgets
- with much less challenging mitigation
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
… median emissions from the IPCC’s 2°C scenarios
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
… from 2017 is over 1400 billion tonnes of CO2
2017
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
… from 2017 is over 1400 billion tonnes of CO2
NB: it starts much lower than actual data
2017
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
… from 2017 is over 1400 billion tonnes of CO2
NB: it starts much lower than actual data
2017
4 billion
tonnes CO2
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1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Making allowance for this ...
2017
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Actual modeled emissions are nearer 1600 GtCO2
i.e. 2x the IPCC’s carbon budget for a likely chance of 2°C
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
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IPCC science suggests around 800GtCO2 from 2017
IPCC (IAM) modellers typically use ~1600GtCO2 from 2017
… how can this make sense?
So for a “likely” chance of 2°C
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… by pulling a rabbit from the magician’s hat
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IAM models conjour up “Negative Emission Technolgies” (NETs)
- to suck 100s billions tonnes of CO2 directly from the atmosphere
- they & emissions continue after the end of the century
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
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… by pulling a rabbit from the magician’s hat
The technology that dominates the (IAM) models
BECCS – biomass energy with carbon capture & storage:
Grow trees/plants
they absorb CO2 through photosynthesis
burn trees in powerstations
capture the CO2 from the chimney
~liquefy the CO2 & pump it underground
store for many 1000s of years
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… by pulling a rabbit from the magician’s hat
BECCS – biomass energy with carbon capture & storage:
Never worked at scale
huge technical & economic unknowns
major efficiency penalty
limited biomass availability (fuel or food?)
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… by pulling a rabbit from the magician’s hat
BECCS – level of inclusion in models/policy means :
- planting 1 to 3x the area of India
- year after year; decade after decade, to well beyond 2100
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oceans & plants absorb ~20GtCO2/yr
i.e. ~1/2 of what we emit
BECCS assumed to absorb 10-20GtCO2/yr
i.e. up to another planet’s worth of biospere
+
… or the equivalent of adding another biosphere!
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So Paris, some Academics & Politicians …
rather than focus on urgent & deep mitigation now
… with challenging political & economic repercussions
prefer to rely on non-existent negative emission technologies
… to suck huge quantities of CO2 from the air in the future
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A shameful litany of scams
Offsetting … paying a poor person to diet for us
Clean development mechanism (CDM) … state sanctioned offsetting
Emissions trading (EUETS) ... so many permits the €tCO2 stays low
NETs & BECCS
… when are we going to try actual mitigation?
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We’ve ignored Feynman’s warning
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence
over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.
Richard P. Feynman.
Shuttle Presidential Commission 1986
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So if 2°C is too challenging,
what about 3 to 4°C?
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Global impacts: 4°C
+8°C
+6°C
+10-12°C
Hottest days
Prolonged & more severe heatwaves
(6 to 12°C hotter)
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Global impacts: 4°C
Food crops
30-40% reduction in maize, wheat &
rice yields in low latitudes.
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Global impacts: 4°C
Sea level rise
50-150cm rise,
higher in low latitudes
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There is a widespread view that 4°C is…
Incompatible with an organised global community
Beyond ‘adaptation’
Devastating to eco-systems
Highly unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points’)
… consequently …
4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs
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Returning to 2°C
… is it still a viable goal?
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Hypothesis: yes
Technology
Demand: near term options
Supply: decadal timeframe
Equity: immediate & near-term
… just
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SUPPLY: low-CO2 electricity
Tidal
Wave
Biomass
(CCS ?)
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SUPPLY: low-CO2 energy
But, electricity is typically 20% of final energy demand
So also need a massive programme of electrification
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DEMAND: opportunities for near-term mitigation
Establish stringent efficiency standards
Tighten year on year
Providing long-term & dynamic market signal
Industrialised/wealthy nations: - power-down energy demand by
40 to 70% in around 10 years
(NB: accompanying policies to address issues of rebound are essential)
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Beyond technology
Technology (supply & demand) alone cannot deliver on the Paris budgets
Rapid & deep changes in what we do, how we do it & how often we do it
are now critical
But:
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Equity:
CO2 asymmetry & mitigation
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EQUITY: extreme emission asymmetry
~50% of global CO2 comes from ~10% of the population
______
Top 1% of US emitters (~3.4 million people)
… have CO2 footprints
2500x higher than bottom 1% globally (~70 million)
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EQUITY: extreme emission asymmetry
… if the top 10% of global emitters
were to reduce their carbon footprint
to the level of a typical EU citizen
Global CO2 emissions would be cut ~33%
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So, who is in this key 10% group?
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So, who is in this key 10% group?
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So, who is in this key 10% group?
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So, who is in this key 10% group?
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So, who is in this key 10% group?
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EQUITY: frames a new agenda for mitigation
Most of the 7 billion have little scope to reduce emissions
There is huge asymmetry in responsibility
Rapid & near-term reduction in CO2 from top 10% of emitters
Real opportunity for leading by example
And thereby catalysing system-change
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Climate Change demands System Change
Interpreting Paris through the logic of carbon budgets begs
fundamental questions of our norms & paradigms
Marshall-style transition in supply technologies
rapid penetration of more efficient end-use technologies
profound shift in behaviour & practices
development of economic models fit for purpose
serious consideration of inter/intra generational equity
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Climate Change demands System Change
Interpreting Paris through the logic of carbon budgets begs
fundamental questions of our norms & paradigms
… starting now ... and all completed within three decades
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Retrofit homes: 60%+ less energy (warmer & cooler)eliminates fuel povertygreat for employment
Max CO2 standard for all new cars/electrification
Policies to drive behavioural change by hi-energy users
(progressive metering tariffs, frequent flier levy, PCA)
i.e. power down energy demand by 40-70% in 15 years
What this may mean for UK Energy DEMAND
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Major electrification programme (htg, transport, etc)
Much higher rated interconnectors
Roll out smart grid/intelligent metering/community energy
Sustainably exploit renewable & v. low CO2 energy
(UK - solar panels on all SW roofs ~1/3 current elec’ demand?)
Indigenous biomass/biogas/P2G for intermittency/base load
What this may mean for UK energy SUPPLY
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Long term investment (i.e. a low discount rate <3.5%)
Moratorium on all new hydrocarbon developments
Rapid retooling/reskilling from oil to renewables
Moratorium on airport expansion
What this may mean for POLICY
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“at every level the greatest obstacle to
transforming the world is that we lack the
clarity and imagination to conceive that it
could be different.”
Robert Unger
and a message of hope to finish …
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web: kevinanderson.info
twitter: @KevinClimate
Thanks for listening
Kevin AndersonProfessor of Energy & Climate Change