Post on 29-May-2015
description
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR)
Foresight for ‘Beyond business as usual’
Team D:Alessandro Pinheiro (Brazil)Simone Ehrenberg-Silies (Germany)Annelie Eriksson Helmersdotter (Sweden)Kil Woo Lee (South Korea)
Pacific EgdeHigh fertility, low economic growth
• High unemployment, Low GDP, government budget constraints
• Less resources for S&T, education, health care etc. • Infant mortality is high, tensely situation for childrens
health, greater demand for childrens healthcare• Social tensions, possible segregation in society, • Low environment protection• Xenophopbia, emphasis on security• Constraints on cultural values, i.e. Family living• Demand for creativity & flexibility in policy making.• Data protection not yet thoroughly discussed
Illustration of the scenario, Peter 49, Hampsted
• High income, CEO, • Single, gated community, depressive• Gets medical treatment by travelling to different
countries• Uses private healthcare• Easyjet offering flights to bring rich people to places
which offers treatment they want Peter does not rely on NHS
Wang 46 and Lisa 42, children Bob and Sarah, Manchester
• Middleclass, Wang and Lisa are divorce, Allowance to Lisa
• Wang is engineer, working for a construction company, spends most of his time at the desk
• Wang is afraid of unemployment, there fore he is suffering from high blood pressure
• No time for excersise, problems with obesity• High expenses for childrens education (private schools) Wang needs personlized prevention to avaoid costs of
real severe deseases like heart deseases, diabetes etc
Nora, 35, unemployed, 5 children, Newcastle
• Single, teenage mother, previously loosing two other children due general state of health, no regular contact with hospital care
• Can not afford nursery• Many children deseases (pandemias are common)• Pandemias also threat to adults
Wang needs personlized prevention to avaoid costs of real severe deseases like heart deseases, diabetes etc
Recommendations
Personalized prevention to deal with infant mortality (different risk groups exists), varying according to income, type of occupation, diet
More knowledge on children diseases and their effects on adults should be accumulated right now
Plans to deal with pandemias should be developed More medicine products designed for children Concentrate research on medicines’ effect on children Special personalized prevention programs for children
with a strong social dimension
Core recommendations
• Carefulness about personlized medicine based on genetic data banks
• Need for investment in childrens health research
• Personlized prevention
Model – an overview
Growth of populationGrowth of population
Science & technologyScience &
technology
Demography
Individuals mobility
Individuals mobility
EconomyEconomy
Social factorsSocial factors
Model – a more detailed picture
Growth of populationGrowth of population
Science & techniqueScience & technique
MortalityMortality
ImmigrationImmigrationGDP growthGDP growth
FertilityFertilityAgeingAgeing
Education Health
Welfare stateWelfare state
RegulationsRegulations
Climate changeClimate change
War & conflictsWar &
conflicts
Strong beliefs in religion
Strong beliefs in religion
EmmigrationEmmigration
How we got there
• UK never recovered from the Financial crisis in 2008
• Reasons: Britons in 2009 has 1/3 of the private debts of all EU citizens
• thus, it was not possible to push the economy by increasing private spending
• Effect: the UK became less and less attractive for highly skilled immigrant workers
• Immigration from other countries however continues or even increases because of the effects of climate change in Southern countries
• Because of the cultural background of immigrants the birth rate is quite high
• Because of the severe contraints on public spending there was never a chance of building up a genetic databank as a basis for personalised medicine
Methodology
1. Scanning2. Modelling3. Expert panels4. Stakeholder interaction5. SWOT6. Sceanarios
22
33 4455
66
11
Black Swans
• Baby boom (frequent surveys)• Pandemia (WHO alert system)• War • Immigration boom • Emmigration booms (caused by i.e. natural
disaster)• Increase in terrorism activity
Drivers ranking
Most uncertain
EconomyEnvironment/social
OpennessFamily living
Ageing population
Most unpredictable
ScenariosEconomy
+
Economy-
Environment/fertility-
Environment/fertility+
A BB
CDD
DatacollectionS Diet, Choice of work /workplace, demography,
diseases etcstatistics, psychological and working life science
T Technical innovation, dispersion of techniques Innvation reserach and evaluations
E Production and/or demand for special health products, ageing society
? And statistics
E Chemical wasteNeed more resourcesEcological footpring
Innovation surveys, Interviews with experts,Document, research etc
P IP laws, labour policy Interviews with gov repr, government bills etc, statistics on working sectors
V Fear of discrimination, data protection Survey of individuals
Scenario B and DSenario B” Gold coast” Scenario D ”Pacific edge”
Increasing GDPDecreasing unemploymentMore tax for treasuryMore resources for S&TMore immigrationElderly populationEducation resourcesHigher energy consumptionImpact of pollution will increaseFamily values (individualism)Longevity
High unemplyment, Low GDP, goverrnment budget constraintsLess resources for S&T, education, healthcare etc. Infant mortality is high, Childrens health situation, childrens products, greater demand for childrens healthcareSocial tensions, possible segregation in society, Low environment protectionXenophopbia, emphasis on securityConstraints on cultural values, i.e. Family livingDemand for creativity & flexibility in policy making.