Informality in Latin America: Taxes and beyond · Informality: usual (and less usual) suspects •...
Transcript of Informality in Latin America: Taxes and beyond · Informality: usual (and less usual) suspects •...
Informality in Latin America: Taxes and beyond
Angel Melguizo
ELLA Summit on Informality and Inclusive Growth Johannesburg, October 4-5 2016
2Lauenburg, 1890
3MacondoPor Hernando Nossa
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Informality in Latin America: Taxes and beyond
• Informal is normal in Latin America
• Taxes and informality: in it together?
• Beyond taxes: a way forward
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Informality in Latin America: Taxes and beyond
• Informal is normal in Latin America
• Taxes and informality: in it together?
• Beyond taxes: a way forward
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Informal is normal in Latin America…
Source: Bosch, M., C. Pages and A. Melguizo (2013), Better Pensions, Better Jobs. IDB
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… for non-wage earners, workers in small firms, or low-income workers …
Source: Bosch, M., C. Pages and A. Melguizo (2013), Better Pensions, Better Jobs. IDB
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… and the emerging middle class
Source: Melguizo, A. (2015), Pensions, Informality and the Emerging Middle Class. IZA World of Labor.
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Informality in Latin America: Taxes and beyond
• Informal is normal in Latin America
• Taxes and informality: in it together?
• Beyond taxes: a way forward
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Informalities
Source: Bosch, M., C. Pages and A. Melguizo (2013), Better Pensions, Better Jobs. IDB
Workers
Costs > Benefits Benefits > Costs
Costs > Benefits
Firms
Benefits > Costs
Preference Exclusion
Optimal formalityDo channels exist?
Evasion
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Informality: usual (and less usual) suspects
• Difficulty for long-term planning
• Imperfect design of social insuranceNor representative economic/labour modelEnforcement (e.g. channeled through the wage bill)
• Disincentives to formality for firms/workersNon-wage labour costs and labour regulations (e.g. minwage)Non-contributory benefits
• Low trust in the State and/or financial sector
• Low productivity
High costs of formality (taxes and labor regulation) could be playing a role…
Source: Pages, C. (2010), The Age of Productivity. IDB
… especially when interacting with labor regulations
Source: Bosch, M., C. Pages and A. Melguizo (2013), Better Pensions, Better Jobs. IDB
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Taxing wages in Latin America: data first
Comparable statistics for 20 LAC countries on taxes on wages:
- Social contributions (compulsory; private+public) and personal income tax- Formal dependent worker- By levels of income (deciles and USD)- By family composition (single/couple; children)
Special focus: theoretical costs (taxes) to formalise
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Taxing wages in Latin America: definitions
Total labour costs- Employer social security contributions
Gross wages
-Employee social security contributions - Personal income tax
+ Cash transfers
Net wages
Labour costs in Latin America and OECD(Average wage earner; social contributions and personal income tax; 2013)
Labour costs in LAC are heterogeneous, and lower than in OECD (wages and taxes)
Source: OECD/CIAT/IDB (2016), Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean
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Net wages Tax wedge
Lower labour costs are relatively low in LAC due to low taxes on wages (22% vs 36%)…
Source: OECD/CIAT/IDB (2016), Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean
… explained by the personal income tax (average formal worker is exempted)
Source: OECD/CIAT/IDB (2016), Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean
Personal income tax in LAC is borne fully by the two/three top deciles (low level though…)
Fuente: OECD/CIAT/IDB (2016), Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean
Employer contributions are alike in LAC and OECD
Source: OECD/CIAT/IDB (2016), Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
OECDLAC
ChileHonduras
Trinidad y TobagoPeru
GuatemalaEcuadorJamaica
BoliviaVenezuela
El SalvadorPanamá
ParaguayDominican Rep
NicaraguaUruguay
MexicoCosta Rica
ArgentinaColombia
Brazil
Employer social contributions in Latin America and OECD(Average wage earner; % labour costs; 2013)
What about those (55% workers) who are informal?
Calculating the (tax) costs of formalisation..
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Tasa de informalidad Costo teórico de formalización
Source: OECD/CIAT/IDB (2016), Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean
Informality rate Theoretical costs of formalisation
Informality and theoretical tax costs of formalisation in Latin America(Average LAC wage earner by income decile; % wages; 2013)
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Chile
Tasa de informalidad Costo teórico de formalización
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Tasa de informalidad Costo teórico de formalización
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Colombia
Tasa de informalidad Costo teórico de formalización
Americas Latinas
Source: OECD/CIAT/IDB (2016), Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean
Taxes and informality are correlated for low and middle-income workers (vulnerable middle class)
Source: OECD/CIAT/IDB (2016), Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean
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Taxes and informality: in it together?
Theoretical indetermination and not conclusive empirics
Source: Gonzalez-Paramo, J.M. and A. Melguizo. (2013), Who pays labour taxes and social contributions? A meta-analysis approach. SERIES, 4, 247-71
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Informality in Latin America: Taxes and beyond
• Informal is normal in Latin America
• Taxes and informality: in it together?
• Beyond taxes: a way forward
Procrastination and overconfidence traps
Have you thought about financing your retirement?
Source: Bosch, M., C. Pages and A. Melguizo (2013), Better Pensions, Better Jobs. IDB
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Usual suspects beyond taxes
• Difficulty for long-term planning
• Imperfect design of social insuranceNor representative economic/labour modelEnforcement (e.g. channeled through the wage bill)
• Disincentives to formality for firms/workersNon-wage labour costs and labour regulations (e.g. minwage)Non-contributory benefits
• Low trust in the State and/or financial sector
• Low productivity
• Global: interactions between social protection (pensions, health) and taxes
+ Coordination among institutions (regulation, supervision, administration)
• Efficiency: incentives to formal labour participation• Innovation: supervision and compliance
mechanisms• Transparency: simple goals; public debate and
political agreements
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Principles of a pro-formality agenda
Incentives for formal jobs (including tax cuts)Enforce/re-design (especially for self-employed)Increase information and financial education
Open databasesImpact evaluation
InnovateComunicationChannelsDefault options
Policy goals and levers
Better jobs: Subsidizing formal employment…
45%
63%
Source: Bosch, M., C. Pages and A. Melguizo (2013), Better Pensions, Better Jobs. IDB
Projections of formality in Latin America
Source: Bosch, M., C. Pages and A. Melguizo (2013), Better Pensions, Better Jobs. IDB
Better jobs: … at reasonable fiscal costs
Better jobs: Financing choice would depend on current and future tax revenues
Consumption taxes and pension and health contributions in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2012 (Percentage of GDP)
Source: Bosch, M., C. Pages and A. Melguizo (2013), Better Pensions, Better Jobs. IDB
Better jobs: Pro-formality policies and productive development policies - Skills…
Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2014), Latin American Economic Outlook 2015.
Empresas en Colombia que consideran como una barrera importante la falta de una fuerza laboral adecuadamente formada (% empresas formales, circa 2010)
Better jobs: … the new XXI century currency
Source: Melguizo, A. and J.R. Perea (2016), Mind the skills gap! Regional and industry patterns in emerging economies”. Working Paper 329. OECD Development Centre.
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Informality in Latin America: Summing up
• Informal is normal in Latin America(and we do not like it too much)
55% workersAlso a middle-class challenge
• Taxes and informality: in it together?Yes: taxes on wages can be burdensome, especially for thetransition informality-formality
• Beyond taxes: a way forwardComprehensive pro-formality package: incentives(monetary & nudged) and productive development policies
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Main references
• Better Pensions, Better Jobshttps://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/462?locale-attribute=es
• Pensions at a Glance in LAChttp://www.oecd.org/publications/oecd-pensions-at-a-glance-pension-glance-2014-en.htm
• Taxing Wages in LAChttp://www.oecd.org/development/taxing-wages-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-2016-9789264262607-en.htm
Thanks!
Angel Melguizo
ELLA Summit on Informality and Inclusive Growth Johannesburg, October 4-5 2016
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0.0%
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Single - 67 - 0 Single - 100 - 0 Single - 167 - 0
South Africa
Colombia
Taxing wages in Colombia and South Africa(Social contributions and personal income tax; 2013)