FORECASTINGPresented By-

Guru Sai Ram AtmuriIIHM HYDERABAD

3rd Year

QUICK GLANCE TO FORECASTING• A forecast is a studied prediction of future.

• One of the skills for a front office professional is to forecast the availability of rooms for the given particular period of time.

• This forecasting period could range from 3-days, 10- days, quarterly, half yearly or annually.

• Forecasting helps in the planning occupancy and resultant room revenue.

WHAT ARE THE PURPOSES OF FORECASTING..??• It sets a standard for the reservation agent

while booking or taking in the reservations.

• It determines the role of sales and marketing team to supplement gaps in desired occupancy.

• It protects the hotel from over booking.

• It helps housekeeping to gear its work force.

• It gives accurate idea of rooms that are not available for sale, especially that are out of order.

• It helps all the departments to plan their leave schedule, because employees will not be issued leaves during peak periods.

• It determines the pricing strategy whether to quote maximum rates or minimum rates.

• The chef would know how much food to order to meet the demand. Over stocking perishable and costly items will lead to spoilage and will higher the food costing.

WHAT ARE THE PURPOSES OF FORECASTING..??

INFLUENCES ON FORECASTING

INFLUENCES ON FORECAST

Forecasts have two important factors that influence the Room Revenue

INTERNAL FACTORS EXTERNAL FACTORS

INTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCING FORECASTING• Historical patterns of occupancy in a given data.• Special promotions launched by Sales and

Marketing team to stimulate the promotion.• Realization of long term bookings.• Pattern of no-show.• Percentage of guaranteed bookings against the

percentage of non- guaranteed bookings.• Percentage of rooms committed to volume

business.• Patterns of target market segments.

• Special events in the city.

• Special promotions by travel agents and tour groups.

• History of city occupancy patterns during a particular period.

EXTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCING FORECASTING

HOW DO WE OBTAIN FORECAST DATA..??• Number of saleable rooms.• Number of rooms booked.• Number of rooms are under repair.• Number of expected departures.• Percentage of walk-ins based on previous data.• Percentage of no-shows based on past data.• Percentage of over-stay based on reception

check.• Percentage of under-stay based on past data.• Number of Stay-over.

WHAT IS THE FORMULA OF FORECASTING..??

• Armed with the information the front office professional can now execute a formula that gives her/him the number of rooms available for sale.

• Forecast Formula Total number of guest roomsLess (-) Number of rooms under repairLess (-) Number of OverstaysLess (-) Number of StayoversLess (-) Number of ReservationsPlus (+) Number of No- Shows Plus (+) Number of rooms available for sale

That equals to (=) Number of rooms available for sale

LETS SUM UP..!!By this presentation we came to know-

• Forecasts are a prediction of the room position in any given period of time.

• It helps the front office agent in many ways but principally to anticipate the flow of rooms so as to generate tactics to meet low occupancy days and full house days.

• It is a useful tool to ensure that guests get their rooms and those without rooms are accommodated to bring them into a fold to make them their regular clients.

• To calculate the number of guest rooms that are available for sale.