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Thursday, April 8, 20106:30 p.m. - 8:00 p.m. Eastern time

Exploring U.S. Regional Climate Change Impacts: Why It Matters to You

By: Dr. Steve McNulty and Vicki Arthur

Section I

Exploring U.S. Regional Climate Change Impacts: Why It Matters to You

Dr. Steven McNultyUSDA Forest Service

North Carolina State Universitysteve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu

What is Climate Change??

Change in Air Temperature from the average of the 1950’s-1980’s compared to the 1990’s

Earth MoonGreen House Gas % in the Atmos 5 0

Distance from Sun (millions of km)

Day/Night Temperature Range (oC)

Average Temperature (oC)107/-153

-2321

26-17

149 149

Mercury VenusGreen House Gas % in the Atmos <1 95

Distance from Sun (millions of Km)

Daily Temperature Range (oC)

Average Temperature (oC) 450

450/450

400

58

420/-150

108

Poll Question

According to the historical data, is climate change cyclical?

√ Yes X No

400,000 Years of Antarctic CO2 and Temperature Change

Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2001

Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions

Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature

Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000

“Simulations of the response to natural forcings alone … do not explain the warming in the second half of the century” SPM

Stott et al, Science 2000

“..model estimates that take into account both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are consistent with observations over this period” SPM

Stott et al, Science 2000

What other Factors could increase or decrease Global Warming

in the long and short term?

[Type in the chat]

Let’s Pause Two Minutes for

Questions from the Audience

Section II

How is/will climate change be impacting you?

Regional impacts

IPCC world CC map

Alaska and Canada

Poll QuestionWhich of the impacts of climate change might

have a positive, short term effect?A) Forest ProductionB) InsectsC) Sea Ice thinning

Change in Forest Productivity from 1982 to 1999

Nemani et al., Science June 6th 2003

Insects

Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton

The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records.

Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate change for this region?

[Type in the Chat]

Rocky Mountains and Western US

Large scale (> 400 ac) Wildfires and Air Temperature

From Westerling et al. 2005

Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate

change for this region?

[Type in the Chat]

Let’s Pause Two Minutes for

Questions from the Audience

Eastern US

Sugar maple

Iverson et. al GTR NE265

Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events

(more than 2 inches or 50.8mm)

Karl et al. 1996

BW 7

Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF

Loblolly pine

Iverson et. al GTR NE265

> 25% DECLINE

5%-25% DECLINE

<5% CHANGE

5%-25% INCREASE

Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline

Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change

5%-25% DECLINE

<5% CHANGE

5%-25% INCREASE

Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate

change for this region?

[Type in the Chat]

Let’s Pause Two Minutes for

Questions from the Audience

Coastal Areas

Results of Sea Level Rise

Gulf Coast Region

Results of Sea Level Rise

1.5 Meter Rise

Graphic by Hugo Ahlenius

BLEACHING OF CORAL REEFS BY OCEAN TEMPS > 85deg F (29 deg C)

Locations of Coral Reef Bleaching

Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate

change for this region?

[Type in the Chat]

Let’s Pause Two Minutes for

Questions from the Audience

Summary of Impacts

U.S. Forest ServiceSection I

Education Resources to Help You Bring the

Climate Change Issue Home

globalchange.gov

U.S. Global Change Research Program

National Academies of Science

national‐academies.org

www.nas.edu/climatechange

http://fs.usda.gov/conservationeducation

Carbon, Oxygen, Water and Shade: Putting a Price on the Benefits of Your School Yard Trees

Vicki ArthurDavid V. Bloniarz

U.S. Forest Service

i-Tree: Demonstrating That Trees Pay Us Back!

Itree curriculum:

www.itreetools.org

www.treebenefits.com

Natural Inquirer

Forest Service’s

Science Education Journal

www.naturalinquirer.org

GreenSchools!www.plt.org

Thanks!

Thank you to the sponsor of tonight's Web Seminar:

http://learningcenter.nsta.org

http://www.elluminate.com

National Science Teachers AssociationDr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director

Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs

Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning

LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP

NSTA Web SeminarsPaul Tingler, Director

Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator