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The$Exploita-on$of$Science$

UK$Design$Forum$talk$20mar15:$Uo.Manchester,$Uk.$

$Pdf$and$SlideCast$@$hHp://ianp24.blogspot.com$

$Opinions$expressed$are$my$own$...$

$

$

Prof. Ian Phillips

Principal Staff Engineer ARM Ltd

ian.phillips@arm.com

Visiting Prof. at ...

Contribution to Industry Award 2008

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... But if we understand how, we could do it better

Today Samsung Galaxy S5

2014 (1yr lifetime)

40yr ago BT Yeoman

c1964-84 (20yr lifetime)

IC Eng’s came from?

SW Eng’s came from?

Research$Does$Get$into$Product$...$

!  Products$have$changed$hugely$in$my$life$...$$!  Improved:*Technology,*Methods*and*Tools**!  Different:*Business*Models*and*Global*Markets**...*ConAnuous,*subtle*change*for*40+*yrs*

*

..."Is"the"Process"fundamentally"different"today?"

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Age of the ... Universe – 13.6Byr

Earth – 4.5Byr Life – 3.5Byr The$First$Exploita-on$of$Science$...$

32,000 yrs got us to this!

!  CroFMagnon*Man*(Us!)$–$35,000$yr$ago$$!  ‘Developed’*from*HomoFSapien*(Wise*Human)*>100,000*yr*!  Mission:*Survive"Nature"(1,000*gen’n)*

!  The*Philosophers*–$2,500T1,000$yr$ago*!  Pythagoras,*Socrates,*Plato,*Aristotle,*Archimedes,*...*!  Mission:*Understanding"Nature"

!  The*ScienAsts*–$1,000T500$yrs$ago*!  Galileo,*Descartes,*(1000*ad)*!  Electricity*F*William*Gilbert*(1600ad)*!  Mission:*Manipula?on"of"Nature"

!  The*Engineers*–$260$yrs$ago*!  Industrial"Revolu?on"(1750:*8*gen’n)*!  Mission:*Exploita?on"of"Nature"!  Year*0:*ScienceFMeetsFExploitaAon*!  Technology*Based*Business*Emerges**

..."Our"BIGEBANG"was"just"260"years"ago!"

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$ $...$State$(s)$and$Time$(t)$are$always$factors$in$this$(Though*not*always*explicit).$

* *...*Not*prescripAve*about*the*choice*of*ImplementaAon*Technology!** *...*Nor*prescripAve*about*Programmability!*

Compute:$To$Evaluate$an$Algebraic$Equa-on$(Model)$...$$Computer: A mechanism to do this repetitively…

!  Usually*used*with*analogues*of*realFworld*parameters,*to*predict*realFworld*outcomes.**!  Frequently*used*it*to*animate*Models*fast*enough*to*stabilise*a*loop*(RealFAme).*

y=F(x,t,s) IN (x)

Enumerated Phenomena

OUT (y) Information

(Processed Data)

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History:$100BC$T$Hipparchos’s$An-kythera$Early-Mechanical

Computation

Hipparchos c.190 BC – c.120 BC.

Ancient Greek Astronomer,

Philosopher and Mathematician !  A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"Planetary"Posi?ons"

!  Technology:""HandEMade"Metal,"HandECut"Gears,""Engraving,"Analogue"!  Found*in*the*Mediterranean*in*1900*(Believe*there*might*have*been*10’s)*

$ $ $See:$hHp://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02hz21v$

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History:$1700$T$Graham’s$Orrery$

!  A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"Planetary"Posi?ons"(1,800"yrs"aUer"An?kythera!)"!  Technology:""FactoryEMade"Metal,"MachineECut"Gears,"Wood,"Analogue"!  Inventor:*George*Graham*(1674F1751).*English*ClockFMaker.*

Mechanical Technology

George$Graham

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!  A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"Polynomial"Tables"!  Technology:"Metal,"Precision"Gears,"Digital"(base"10)"!  Too*expensive*for*the*technology*of*the*day*

History:$1837$T$Babbage's$Difference$Engine$Constructed 2000

Late-Mechanical Computation

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History:$1856$T$Amsler’s$Planimeter$Mechanical

Computation

Planimeter 2014 !

!  A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"the"Area"of"an"arbitrary"2D"shape"!  Technology:"Precision"Mechanics,""Analogue"!  Available*today*...*Electronically*enhanced*

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!  General"Purpose,"Stored"Program,"Compu?ng"Mechanism"!  Technology:"Electronics"(valves),"Digital"(base"2)"!  Available*today*...*Enhanced*by*MicroFElectronics*(Mainframe*<=>*Laptop)*

History:$1947$T$Uo.Manchester’s$“Baby”$(ReconstrucAon)*Electronic

Computation

Implementa-ons$are$L

imited$

by$available$Te

chnology!$

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Available$Technology$Limits$Product$Op-ons$...$!  The$Technology$and$Tools$available$when$you$start$your$Product$Development$...$

$...$$limit$the$Technology$you$can$u-lise$in$your$Product$!$(duh!)$

!  But$is$that$the$whole$story?$(NO)$

!  Does$Science$and$Technology$leadTto$a$Product$...$!  Was*the*Orrery*an*inevitable*evoluAon*of*Alloying*science?*(NO)*!  Or*the*the*Laptop,*the*inevitable*refinement*of*the*invenAon*of*the*Valve?*(NO)*!  Is*this*...**

* * * *...*a*liner*process*…*(NO)*$

$$...*NewFTechnology*only*provides*Product*OpAons*(Though*they*may*be*dominant!)**...**Specific*Technologies*may*only*benefit*some*EndFProducts*(or*none!)*

Theory => Science => Technology => Product

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10nm

100nm

1um

10um

100um

App

roxi

mat

e P

roce

ss G

eom

etry

ITRS’99

Tran

sist

ors/

Chi

p (M

)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law

Moore’s$Law:$50$yrs$of$$Technology$Driven$Opportunity$...$

Tran

sist

or/P

M (

K)

X

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Electronic$Systems$Today$

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*...*Older*Markets*remain;*but*inherit*their*current*technology*from*Lead*Markets!*

Business$Opportuni-es$Drive$Technology$Developments$ ... And 21c Products are ‘Smart’ and ‘Connected’

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Main Frame

Mini Computer

Personal Computer

Desktop Internet

Mobile Internet

Mill

ions

of

Uni

ts

Prof

essio

nal !

" C

onsu

mer

1st Era Select work-tasks

2nd Era Broad-based computing for specific tasks

3rd Era Computing as part of our lives

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!  They$profitably$sell$what$Customers$(you)$want$to$Buy$!  They$focus$on$their$Core$Competencies$in$a$Globally$Compe--ve$Market$!  They$avoid$Commodi-sa-on$by$Product$Differen-a-on$…$

!  Cost*and*Quality*(by*improving*Process)*..and..*!  Improved*BusinessFModels*(which*take*the*Money)**..and..*!  New/Improved"Technology*when*it*offers*benefit*(may*be*Expensive*or*Risky)*

!  Product)Development)is)a)Cost)(Risk))to)be)Minimised)!  Technologies*just*enable*OpAons!*(HW,*SW,*Mechanics,*OpAcs,*Graphene,*etc)**!  NewFTechnology*may*cost*more*than*it*delivers*in*Product*Value!*(Including*risk)*!  OverFDesign*costs*...*Good*Enough*is*Enough!*!  Reuse*saves*…*Cannot*afford*to*reFinvent*the*wheel,*or*the*pursuit*of*excellence.*

*...*Successful*EndFProducts*fund*their*enAre*(RD&I)*ValueFChains**...*Further*development*of*their*Sciences*and*Technologies*will*be*prioriAsed$

Business$–$A$sustainable$Money$Making$en-ty$Businesses have to be Competitive, Money Making Machines …

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!  Need:)A$Mechanism$for$enhancing$human$memory$(Camera))!  Technology:)...$

!  Excellent*Lenses*!  Fine*Mechanical*Mechanisms*!  ElectroFMechanical*Exposure*Metering*!  Metal*(and*some)*PlasAc*Forming*!  Manual*Assembly*!  PhotoFChemical*Memory*(35mm*Film)*

*

1998$T$Canon$EOS$Rebel$GII$(17yrs$ago)$

35mm Film Camera

System-Level Mechanical Computation

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!  Need:)A$Mechanism$for$enhancing$human$memory$(Camera))!  Technology:)...$

!  Digital*Logic*(CPU+I.O.)*!  Sonware*!  Memory*(NV*and*RAM)*!  Excellent*Lenses*and*Displays*!  Analogue*Electronics*(Network*&*GPS)*!  Sensors*and*Transducers*(CCD*&*MEM)*!  Precision*Mechanics*!  MicroFMotors*!  Baoeries*and*Energy*Storage*!  LEDs*and*Discharge*Tubes*!  Precision*forming*of*PlasAcs*and*Metal*!  Electronic*Packaging*!  RoboAc*Assembly*...*Technology*External*to*the*Product!*

...**All*of*these*Technologies*are*available*to**21c*Businesses*today*...*

2014$T$Canon$EOS$5D$$$(Today)$

Incorporating DIGIC5+ (ARM)

System-Level Computation

Q: So why couldn’t ARM make a camera to compete with Canon?

A: Because Canon has Capabilities in place that we don’t have!

ARM-based Computer

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!  Science*F*Demonstrated*Fundamentals;*Predictable,*Encapsulated,*New*

!  Technology*F*ScaledFup*Science(s).*Reliable*and*producAve*enough**for*use*in*a*real*Product**or*its*Processes.*May*be**NewFtoFAll,*or*only*NewFtoFYou**(others*may*have*as*a*Capability)*

!  Capability*F*Installed*Technology*InFplace*in*business,*ready*for**missionFcriAcal*use*in*a**New*Product*Development.*

!  Product*F*Delivered*FuncAonality.**Market*Need,*FuncAonality*CostFEffecAve,*Quality**

The$Capability)Model1$…$“Capabilities are the Bridge between Science and its Exploitation”

Capability Capability Capability Capability

Capability Capability Capability

Concept

KN

OW

N-W

OR

K

Developm

ent - Exploit Capabilities

TRL 1-4

TRL 9

TRL 8-9

TRL 5-9

Tech

nolo

gy

Rea

dine

ss

Leve

ls

1:*Not*described*in*literature.*

Science Science Science Science

Science

Science Science ?-

WO

RK

Technology Technology

Technology ?-w

ork

Research - Enquire, Understand & Establish a Capability

The last stage must be done by Business Itself

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!  Short$Term:$From$the$KnownCSet)...*!  Refine"what"we"know"(Including*Individual*knowledge,*Team*knowledge,*and*Tools).*!  Acquire"what"others"know"(Recruit,*Develop,*Contract,*Licence,*Acquire,*Espionage,*etc)**...*Specific,*internal,*secrecy,*lowFnumber,*highFcost,*confidence*

*

!  Longer$Term:$From$the$UnknownCSet$...*!  Targeted"Research"F*Specific,*pointFfocus,*commercial*advantage*(CrownFjewels)*!  Partnered"Research"F*Specific,*focused,*indirect*commercial*advantage*(ARM*Partners)*!  University/Ins?tute"Research"F*Generic,*wide*spectrum,*nonFdifferenAaAng*knowledge*

!  ARM$Funded$Research$Projects$!  Na-onal$Support$Programs1$(TSB,$H2020,$Research$Councils,$DARPA,$etc)** *...*Generic,*broadFspectrum,*openness,*highFnumber,*lowFcost,*partnering,*sharing,*uncertainty*$

*...*Guided*by*Road*Map*from*longer*term*Business*ObjecAves$

Research$T$Establishes$Capabili-es$... for Development Engineers to use for Product Development

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Development$–$Exploits$Capabili-es$to$Deliver$a$Product$... (Tangible or Intangible) to fulfil a Customer Need and a Business Objective !  Design$is$a$crea-ve$role$within$Development$!  Engineers$Deliver)an$effec-ve$TechnicalTProduct$solu-on$...$

!  Mee?ng"Func?onal*and*NonEFunc?onal*criteria*...*!  Eg:$Quality,$TTM,$Budget,$Reproducibility,$Testability,$Cost,$Power.$$

!  Maximising"Product"Differen?a?on;*Minimising*Product*Risk,*Cost*and*Uncertainty*!  Using*Available"Capability"(Technology,*Methodology,*Tools*and*KnowFHow)*

!  Engineers$Innovate$by$pushing$the$bounds$of$Available$Capabili-es$...$!  Using*the*opportuniAes*presented*by*the*ParAcular*Product*Brief*!  Trading*between*Available*CapabiliAes*(Eg:*HW,*SW,*Analogue)*!  UAlising*his/her*wider*sphere*of*knowledge,*knowFhow*and*experience**...**Not*all*implementaAons*are*‘equally*good’*

*...*InnovaAon*is*(&*will*remain)*a*Fundamental*Engineering*role*

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Conclusions$!  CapabiliIes$link$Research$outcomes$to$Products$…$

!  Research*establishes*Capabili?es;*Development*uses*them*!  Technologies*provide*opAons*for*future*products;*but*not*all**

will*be*valuable*in*all*Products*!  CapabiliIes$Limit$a$Companies$Product$Possibili-es$

!  Capabili?es*are*InstalledETechnology"modules;*ready*for*Engineers*to*use*to*create*a*Product,"and*for"Business*to*depend*upon*

!  CapabiliIes)make$the$Product$Development$Process$predictable$!  Technologies*may*not*offer*benefit*in*excess*of*their*wholeFcost*(not*just*$)*!  Technology*and*Science*are*opportuniAes*for*‘tomorrow*and*the*day*aner’!*!  Innova?ve*Engineers*differenAate*Products,*by*InnovaAve*use*of*CapabiliAes*

!  Not$by$the$use$of$risky$Science$or$Technology$(Unless$desperate)$

!  The)Successful)ExploitaIon)of$a$Technology)funds$its$whole$lifeTcycle$...$$!  WHEN"EndECustomers*buy*Products*incorporaAng/uAlising*the*Technology!*!  BUT*EndFCustomers*don’t*buy*Technology,*they*buy*soluAons*to*THEIR*Needs!*!  AND*They*don’t*see*or*care*(much)*about*the*Technology*inside*