www.iita.org A member of CGIAR consortium

Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of

genetically modified banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes region of Africa

Ainembabazi John Herbert, Tripathi Leena, Rusike Joseph, Tahirou Abdoulaye, Manyong Victor

24th November 2015

(R4D Week 2015)

Ex-ante assessment of the potential impact of genetically modified banana resistant to

Xanthomonas wilt in the Great Lakes region of Africa

PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0138998

2015

Ainembabazi John Herbert, Tripathi Leena, Rusike Joseph, Tahirou Abdoulaye, Manyong Victor

Motivation

• 170 million ha planted to GM crops in specific countries

(Qaim and Kouser, 2013)

• In countries yet to embrace biotechnology:

– Is it viable to continue investing in dev’t of GM banana?

– What would be the returns to investments?

– What are the farmers’ perceptions on BXW and

willingness to adopt GM banana?

• Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLA) is a big banana busket

– Contributes 60% of total banana area in Africa

– Produces 63% of Africa’s and 21% of world’s banana supply

– Consumes 147 kcal daily per person, highest in the world

Introduction

• BXW is a big threat in GLA

– BXW affects quality of fruits

– Banana losses up to100%

Two control methods:

1. Cultural methods: debuding, destroying plant, sterilize tools

– No control, losses are at US$ 5.6 billion in 10-15 years

– With control, losses are at US$ 3.1 billion in 10-15 years

2. Use of natural host plant resistant to BXW; Non-existent

Solution to BXW in GLA

• IITA in collaboration with NARO & AATF

– Successfully developed GM banana resistant to BXW

– Multiplication, distribution & commercialization exp. in 2020

Control methods

Methodology

• Rapid appraisals in 2013:

– Burundi, Eastern DRC, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda

• Selection of participants in each country based on:

– Major producing areas & incidence of BXW

– 3 representative banana producing regions (districts)

• In each region (district), participants were:

– Key informants from government & research institutions

– Extension agents from government and NGOs

– Banana traders (retailers and wholesalers)

– Representative banana farmers (smallholder &progressive)

• Had bad experience of BXW

Farmers’ awareness of BXW in GLA

Banana production loss due to BXW

Awareness of GM crops

% of respondents aware of the meaning of GM banana (N=75) 36.0

% defining GM banana as … (N=29)

A banana bred to resist diseases 34.5

A banana with gene(s) from other sources 41.4

Good eye appeal banana but tasteless, has health effects 24.1

% of respondents supporting dev’t of GMB-BXW (N=112) 83.0

Willingness to adopt GMB-BXW

N=37

Projected adoption rate of GMB-BXW

Consumer preference and enquiry

40%

60%

No

Yes

Do consumers ask about variety type?

35%

24%

41%

Improved varieties

Indifferent

Local varieties

Reasons: • Local varieties are: tasty (84%) and cook fast (16%) • Indifferent: both varieties are tasty (56%) and cook fast (44%) Attributes considered during purchase of bananas • Quality and taste (37%), Size (51%), others (e.g prices) (12%)

Consumer preference

N=37 N=84

Potential consumers of GM bananas

Reasons for consumer preference

• High demand: All consumers (57%), Farmers(63%)

• Price determines: Urban consumers (54%)

• Attributes important: All consumers (21%), Farmers(6%),

• Imp. varieties known: All consumers (11%), Farmers(19%)

Farmers 13%

None 7%

All consumers

56%

Urban

consumers

24%

N=101

Economic benefits of adopting GMB-BXW

Country Burundi DRC Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Uganda

Internal rate of return 56.5 57.8 43.2 29.6 43.1 85.6

Gross consumer surplus

(million US$) 110 119 42 19 61 658

Gross producer surplus

(million US$) 55 60 21 9 31 329

Total benefits

(million US$) 161 168 60 20 76 953

Benefit – Cost ratio 33.85 17.13 20.7 3.62 6.11 30.05

• Projected annual economic benefits after adoption of GMB-BXW

Conclusions

• Farmers are willing to adopt GMB-BXW in GLA

– Initial adoption rate ranges from 21 – 70%

• Consumers &farmers benefit from adoption of GMB-

BXW

– Consumers benefit twice as much due price reduction

– Benefits are largest in countries badly hit by BXW

• Participatory bleeding programs have a high potential for

successful acceptability and adoption of GMB-BXW