Post on 02-Apr-2018
Copyright 2016 – ARRIS Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved.
What is Driving this Incredible Growth?
THE NEXT THREE YEARS:
• Over The Top & MSO-Managed IP Video: More Sessions at higher resolution… Unicast video replacing Broadcast
• IoT: Upstream Transmissions of many surveillance IP video streams per home
• The ‘Simulcast Bubble’: Simultaneous Transmissions of TV channels in QAM and IP video during the IP video transition
• Service ‘Snappiness’: Desire for rapid response times
• Marketing Pressures: The need to respond to higher PON bandwidth offerings
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Next 3y IoT
Service
Snapness
3 to 5 years
Virtual Reality
Used to be
2x1080i60 = 18 Mbps @MPEG4
2x4Kp60 = 40 Mbps @HEVC
2x8Kp120 = 180 Mbps @HEVC Immersive Video UHD predicted
to be +500Mbps
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
The Million Dollar Question
• “How much bandwidth capacity is needed to provide good QoE to the subscribers within a Service Group?”
• This question has been asked & re-asked with every generation of HSD on the DOCSIS plant – 1999: Web Browsing (Basic) – 2001: VoIP & D1.1 Service Flow QoE (Tmax & Priority) – 2003: Peer-to-peer (Napster) – 2006: OTT IP Video Streaming (YouTube) – 2008: D3.0 (Channel Bonding) – 2009 & 2011 & 2013: MSO-sourced IP Video (Multicast) – 2014: D3.1 Full-Spectrum & OFDM (4K Video) – 2016: 1 Gbps Downstreams (New Services w/ very high Tmax)
• Many Rule-of-Thumb formulae have been used to answer that question in the past… – BW Capacity > (Nsub)*(Tavg) – BW Capacity > 2*(Tmax) – BW Capacity > 3*(Tmax) – Perform Node Split when Avg BW > 0.7*(BW Capacity)
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Traffic Engineering
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
Nielsen's Law of Internet Bandwidth
Nielsen's Law of Internet bandwidth states that: a high-end user's connection speed grows by 50% per year
Source: http://www.nngroup.com/articles/law-of-bandwidth/
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Internet Maximum Service Tier Offered (Tmax)
1 Gbps 2016-18
2 Gbps 2019-21
10 Gbps 2022-24
Downstream Tmax BW
• Downstream Tmax = 1 Gbps (2016-2018), 2 Gbps (2019-2021), 10 Gbps (2022-2024) • Upstream Tmax = 0.5 Gbps (2016-2018), 1 Gbps (2019-2021), 5 Gbps (2022-2024)
20 Gbps 2025-27
100 Gbps 2028-31
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved ARRIS Confidential and Restricted
• US Tavg almost 100Kbps in 2017
• US Tavg CAGR below 20% – Doubling every ~4-5 years – For Network Capacity planning,
typically use 20% to double every 4 years
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Recent MSO Avg BW Traffic Trends
• DS Tavg passes 1Mbps in 2017
• DS Tavg CAGR below 40% – Not quite doubling every
other year
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved ARRIS Confidential and Restricted
Some Recent DS:US Average BW Ratio Trends…
• Today, Most MSOs DS:US Avg BW Ratios are in 8:1 to 16:1 range
• DS BW continues to grow faster than US, so those Ratios will continue to rise in the near future
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Historic Data
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
New Services Impact
10
Example Upstream Changes
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
Consider
11
Network Evolution Needs to
Architecture Availability Affordability
Not anymore only Bandwidth…
….but also Latency UX
$ Converge in Infrastructure and Function
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
In Infrastructure
12
Converge
HFC - Hybrid Fiber Coaxial
Wireless
CENTRAL
OFFICE
Fiber Node Fiber
CENTRAL
OFFICE
Fiber
"HFW - Hybrid Fiber Wireless"
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
In Infrastructure
13
Converge
Wireless \
Fiber Node Fiber
CENTRAL
OFFICE
Fiber
CENTRAL
OFFICE
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
Convergent Study
14
One Example of
IP-RAN
10Gbps Eth 10Gbps Eth
NODE-B
HFC
N+X N+0
#2 CMTS + Switch Use Existing IP infra with QoS
RPD
#4 CMTS + Switch Use Existing IP infra with QoS
RPD + TX/RX AM Node
#1 CMTS + Switch Use Existing IP infra with QoS
RPD AMP
#3 CMTS + Switch Use Existing IP infra with QoS
RPD + TX/RX AM Node AMP
#5 CMTS + Switch Use Existing IP infra with QoS
RPD + AGileMax FTTLA
Central Office
#6 Switch Use Existing IP infra with QoS
Switch + OLT/P2P RMACPHY
#7 CMTS + Switch Use Existing IP infra with QoS
Node to W
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
"Hybrid Fiber Wireless"
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Demarcation of the
‒ Whole city areas
covered with
unlicensed & shared
spectrum
‒ Many networks operated
by public and/or private
entities
‒ A single wireless
solution via federation
‒ Countless IoT use cases Indoor
Outdoor
Copyright 2016 – ARRIS Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved.
Important Concepts
16
And Mix and Match Options, options and options!
Incremental
CAPEX Umbrella Operational Efficiency
Standards Backwards Compatible
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
Bifurcation of Last-Mile HFC Options in the Future
MORE: BW/sub Cost Changes
LESS: BW/sub Cost Changes
MORE: BW/sub Cost Changes Elasticity
LESS: BW/sub Cost Changes Elasticity
Less changes req’d (BAU)
Med. Rackspace in HE Low Power in HE
More Lambdas on Fiber Simpler Mgmt with SDN
Elasticity & Feature Velocity & Lower Cost
FTTH RFoG for Video &
DOCSIS
FTTT HFC
for Video & DOCSIS
(or MoCA)
FTTLA HFC for Video &
DOCSIS
FTTN HFC for Video &
DOCSIS
CAA Based DOCSIS (I-CCAP)
DAA Based DOCSIS (vCore)
FTTH RFoG for Video &
DOCSIS
FTTT HFC
for Video & DOCSIS
(or MoCA)
FTTLA HFC for Video &
DOCSIS
FTTN HFC for Video &
DOCSIS
FTTN (Node+X)
FTTLA (Node+0)
FTTT FTTH FTTN FTTLA
(Node+0) FTTT FTTH
FTTH RFoG for Video &
DOCSIS
FTTT HFC
for Video & DOCSIS
(or MoCA)
FTTLA HFC for Video &
DOCSIS
FTTN HFC for Video &
DOCSIS
DAA Based DOCSIS (eCore)
FTTN (Node+X)
FTTLA (Node+0)
FTTT FTTH
Low Rackspace in HE Low Power in HE
More Lambdas on Fiber
MORE: BW/sub Cost Changes
LESS: BW/sub Cost Changes
I-CCAP
eCore RPHY
vCore
RPHY
Year High SLA BW
(Gbps)
2042 1,000
2039 200
2033 100
2028 20
2022 10
2019 2
2016 1
How Will Operators
Provide These High BWs over HFC
In the Future?
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So Many Options….
Copyright 2015 – ARRIS Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved.
SDN and NFV Concepts in Cable Evolution
18
CENTRAL
OFFICE
RPHY Fiber PHY
MAC
Layer 3
and above
PHY
MAC
Layer 3
and above
CENTRAL
OFFICE
RMACPHY Fiber
PHY
MAC Layer 3
and above
NFV
SDN Appliance
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
Central Office Re-architected as a Data Center
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CORD
source: http://blog.westmonroepartners.com/
Cable Access
Copyright 2015 – ARRIS Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved. ARRIS Confidential
5
5
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• 10G DS x 5G US is the target BW
• 684 MHz US versus 42 or 85 MHz today
• The biggest change in FDX is the expanded upstream spectrum
• Optimized for Fiber Deep (Node+0) with DOCSIS Remote PHY Nodes
• Currently FDX is in a pre-standards state
Full Duplex DOCSIS (FDX) – Augmenting the Upstream for Symmetrical Service
US DS Spectrum
Cro
sso
ver
US Spectrum
DS Spectrum
Freq
Freq 5 108 684 1218
5 42 54 1218 85 108
300 492
• Available in ~late 2018- early 2019
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
Spectral Utilization & Bandwidths
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Extended Spectrum DOCSIS
US DOCSIS 3.1 DS Extended Spectrum DOCSIS DS
5 - 204 MHZ 258 - 1794 MHZ 1794 - 6400 MHZ
Spectrum
1.5 Gbps ~15 Gbps 35 to 50 Gbps !
Normal DOCSIS 3.1
Modems
Future Extended Spectrum
Modems
With enormous possibilities with FDX DOCSIS
Copyright 2017 – ARRIS Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved
Can We Extend to More Bandwidth?
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Optical Tx/Rx
ARRIS E6000 CCAP 45dB -------
ARRIS 6 GHz Fiber Node
~150’ coax drop
Fiber To The Tap
68 dBmV, SNR = 35dB
RFoG Homes or PON Homes
Fiber To The Curb
ARRIS
OBI-Free RFoG
(HPON AgileMax)
Gets 50+ Gbps, up to 200Gbps to the
Home
Use Fiber To The Tap (FTTT) or Fiber To
The Curb (FTTC)
Extend the Spectrum of DOCSIS 3.1 OFDM to 6 GHz or
higher
hugo.ramos@arris.com
Hugo Amaral Ramos
Muito Obrigado !!!