Post on 04-Jan-2016
European Environment Agency
EEA Report No 4/2005 and some other projections
Scenarios Group
‘Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the environment’
European environment outlookEuropean environment outlook
European Environment Agency
State of the environment reporting should State of the environment reporting should inform decision makers also about the inform decision makers also about the
futurefuture
What can outlooks and scenarios offer?• Identify emerging issues• Projections can replace monitoring burden
after a certain period• Inform decision makers about “what if..”
options in the future • Identify uncertainties, driving forces and
surprises
European Environment Agency
Contribution of Contribution of European environment outlook 2005European environment outlook 2005
• baseline projections (2020-2030), alternative scenarios and variants (up to 2100) within EU 25.
• Interactions between and implications of sectoral developments and environmental issues. Link to past and ongoing European Commission exercises when appropriate.
• Distance to target analyses
• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.
European Environment Agency
The Analytical FrameworkThe Analytical Framework• Key socio-economic developments
• Demography• Macro-economy• Technological and sectoral developments• Energy and transport• Agriculture• Waste and material flows• Consumption patterns
• Outlooks developed for various environmental themes• GHG emissions and climate change• Air quality• Water stress• Water quality
European Environment Agency
DemographyDemographyMacro-economyMacro-economy
European Environment Agency
Demography- Demography-
Changes in Europe’s demographic patterns
• aging societies, • rural depopulation • growing numbers of
households
-10 0 10 20 30 40
Canada
SEE
EECCA
US
NWE
India
China
Projected percentage change in total population from 2005 to 2030 (UN)
European Environment Agency
Macro-economyMacro-economy
The macro-economic assumptions for Europe are moderately optimistic, and entail challenging trade-offs in light of achieving sustainable economic development.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gro
ss D
om
esti
c P
rod
uct
- G
DP
(In
dex
, Sit
uat
ion
in 1
990
= 10
0)
EEA-31 EU-15 New-10
0 50 100 150 200 250
Canada
CEU
China
India
US
WEU
EECCA
c
Projected percentage change in GDP per capita from 2005 to 2030 (OECD)
European Environment Agency
• How will aging and migrations influence economy and environment?
• How will growing economic prosperity and changing demography influence society consumption habits especially in the eastern part of Europe?
• How will EECCA and SEE countries deal with expected economic growth in relation to the needs for environment protection? Will growth be knowledge based or only profit driven?
European Environment Agency
Technology and sectors development
European Environment Agency
Key messagesKey messages – Technological and sectoral developments – Technological and sectoral developments
• Technological progress is moderate but essential in key areas such as energy, agriculture and water, but no technological breakthroughs are assumed.
• The service sector is expected to retain its predominance in the European economy and be instrumental in sustaining economic growth.
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Gro
ss V
alu
e A
dd
ed
(Bill
ion
s o
f E
uro
)
Industry Construction Services Agriculture Energy sector
European Environment Agency
Key messagesKey messages – Energy and transport – Energy and transport
• Despite continuing increases, total energy consumption is expected to decouple significantly in relative terms from GDP.
• Without technological breakthroughs, the transport sector is expected to continue to grow significantly in terms of energy requirements, and to crystallise environmental concerns due to ever-increasing CO2 emissions to the air.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
To
tal e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
(P
eta
Jou
le)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
To
tal e
ner
gy
con
sum
pti
on
(I
nd
ex, S
itu
atio
n in
199
0 =
100)
Total energy consumption (EU-15) Total energy consumption (New-10)
Total energy consumption (EU-15) - Index Total energy consumption (New-10) - Index
European Environment Agency
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Outlook freight transport by mode, 2000 - 2050
Outlook passenger transport by mode, 2000 - 2050
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
rail road
OECD-Europe
OECD-North America
SEE+Some EU 10
EECCA +Baltic States
India
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
200020
5020
0020
5020
0020
5020
0020
5020
0020
5020
0020
50
rail road air
OECD - North America
OECD - EuropeSEE +
some of EU 10
EECCA + Baltic States
IndiaChina
European Environment Agency
Key messagesKey messages – Agriculture – Agriculture
• Yields increase is expected to be the main source of production growth in Europe over the next 20 years.
• Mineral fertiliser use is expected to increase considerably in the new Member States, but remains lower than in the EU-15 in absolute terms; this may lead to increases in associated environmental pressures.
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Methane (CH4; animals)
Nitrous oxide (N2O; fertilizer)
Potassium (K)
Phosphate (P)
Ammonia losses (NH3)
Nitrogen (N)
Expected change between 2001 and 2020 (in %)New-8 EU-15
European Environment Agency
• To what extent will sectors integrate environmental measures?
Energy • Will EU be able to achieve a more sustainable demand both in terms of
security and environment?• Will we mange to improve energy efficiency ?
Transport• Will we develop more sustainable patterns of transportation use?• Can we expect any technology breakthrough in this area?
Agriculture• Will EECCA and SEE countries put emphasis only on intensive agriculture and food
processing industry or will they promote rural development including traditional organic farming as priority?
Technological developments• How will globalisation impact on spreading of technology innovation?• How fast will new and clean technologies penetrate the market that is still
dominated by old industries? And become accessible?
European Environment Agency
WasteWaste
European Environment Agency
Key messagesKey messages - Waste - Waste
• In the EU-15, most waste streams are not expected to decouple significantly from GDP. In the New-10, relative decoupling of waste from GDP is expected.
• As waste generation is expected to continue to grow across Europe, the policy target of absolute decoupling is not met.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Packaging
Waste oils & used tyres
Glass
Paper & cardboard
Construction & demolition
Industrial
Municipal
GDP
EU-CC2 New-10 EU-15 %
Growths in waste quantities and GDP (2020/2000)
European Environment Agency
EnvironmentEnvironment
European Environment Agency
Key messagesKey messages – GHG emissions & climate change – GHG emissions & climate change
• The short-term European greenhouse gas emission targets are expected to be met, if all additional policies and measures planned are implemented.
• The long-term European greenhouse gas emission targets, set to prevent harmful climate change, are expected to be exceeded.
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Tem
pera
ture
ch
an
ge
(°C
, co
mp
are
d w
ith
pre
-in
du
str
ial
level)
Global average temperature change in 'baseline scenario'Global average temperature change in 'low emission scenario'
EU long-term sustainabletarget (6th EAP)
baseline
alternative
European Environment Agency
Key messagesKey messages – Water stress – Water stress
• Water use is expected to decrease markedly in most of Europe; however many Mediterranean river basins will continue to face water stress.
Water stress in large European river basins, 2000 and 2030
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wat
er e
xplo
itat
ion
ind
ex
2000 2030
European Environment Agency
Key messagesKey messages – Water quality – Water quality
• The UWWT directive is expected to lead to a significant reduction in the overall discharge of nutrients from point sources.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Po
pu
lati
on
co
nn
ecte
d t
o u
rban
was
tew
ater
tre
atm
ent
(% o
f to
tal p
op
ula
tio
n)
Primary Secondary Tertiary Without treatment
Group 1 (EU-15) Group 2 (EU-15) Group 3 (EU-15) New-5%
Group 1 (EU-15) countries: The Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland; Group 2 (EU-15) countries: Belgium and Luxembourg; Group 3 (EU-15) countries: France, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Spain; New-5 countries: Estonia, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovenia
European Environment Agency
Key messagesKey messages
• The EU seems to be on track to meet the targets set for a number of issues (e.g. nutrient emissions from point sources). However, it continues to face significant challenges with respect to greenhouse gas emissions, alternative sources of energy and waste .
• The current shift to more integrated approaches towards environmental policies provides further opportunities to improve the future state of Europe's environment.
• Most environmental concerns have common drivers of change and are linked through a range of interactions.
European Environment Agency
Do countries have a good knowledge and Do countries have a good knowledge and overview about existing state of the overview about existing state of the environment situation and possible environment situation and possible
development in the future?development in the future?
Gaps in the EEA outlook analysesGaps in the EEA outlook analyses
European Environment Agency
Consumption patternsConsumption patterns
• The environmental pressures of consumption are generally lower than those of production, but are expected, as in the recent past, to grow significantly.
• Settlement patterns have considerable impacts at specific locations on water resources, land use and natural capital, particularly in connection with shifts in lifestyles and societal preferences.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Un
it of
GDP
per
wor
ker
(Inde
x, S
ituat
ion
in 1
990
= 10
0)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Peo
ple
over
65
(% o
f tot
al p
opul
atio
n)
Unit of GDP per worker (EU-15) Unit of GDP per worker (New-10)
% people over 65 (EU-15) % people over 65 (New-10)
GDP/worker
Pop>65y.
European Environment Agency
Lack of data, modelsLack of data, models
• Biodiversity,
• Defuse sources of pollution
• Detailed consumption patterns outlooks
• Natural hazards
European Environment Agency
Lack of feedback analysesLack of feedback analyses
• Impact of climate change and water availability to the agriculture and to the forestry
• Macro-economic feedbacks of environment policies
European Environment Agency
Lack of understanding of underlying Lack of understanding of underlying processprocess
• Urban and rural environment
• Spatial and land use outlook (PRELUDE scenarios)
• Health and chemicals outlooks
• Quality of life
• Extreme changes in the environment
European Environment Agency
EEA’s environmental scenarios portalEEA’s environmental scenarios portal
Web Portal
• EEA Reports
• Links to• institutions• networks• studies
• Library
• News
• Glossary
• Bibliographyhttp://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org
European Environment Agency
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
European Environment Agency
UpdateUpdate
• Report published on the EEA web site on 11th September 2005 and shortly introduced at the Informal Environment and Agriculture Councils of ministers.
• The full report is available for download at: http://reports.eea.eu.int/eea_report_2005_4
• Supporting background information can be found on the 'Environmental Scenarios - Information Web Portal' at: http://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org/reports/fol949029
• Hard copies are also available.
European Environment Agency
Approach to air and climate change Approach to air and climate change outlooksoutlooks
Driving forces: - socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline- alternative ‘Low GHG emissions’ and ‘variants’ scenarios
Models:- transport & energy: PRIMES, POLES, (TREMOVE, SCENES)- emissions: TIMER, FAIR- air & climate change: RAINS, IMAGE
Output:- emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6, SO2,PM10, …) - climate change (temperature, precipitation)- impacts (ecosystem composition, growing season)
European Environment Agency
Approach to agriculture outlooksApproach to agriculture outlooks
Driving forces: - socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline - additional assumptions based on CAPRI model and CAP - fertilizer calibrated to match EFMA data - no climate change assumptions
Models:- CAPSIM (partial equilibrium model, economic accounts)
output:- cropping patterns (22 per country)- livestock patterns (11 animal products per country)- nutrient balances for N, P, K- gas emissions (N2O, CH4, NH3)
European Environment Agency
Approach to waste outlooksApproach to waste outlooks
Driving forces: - socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline
Models:- macroeconomic model developed by the EEA ETC Waste & Material Flows
Output:- waste: municipal, industrial, C&D, packaging, paper & cardboard, glass, tyres & waste oil
- material flows: minerals, biomass extraction, fossil fuels
European Environment Agency
Approach to water outlooksApproach to water outlooks
Driving forces: - socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baseline- climate change scenarios from IMAGE and PRIMES models- additional structural & technological change assumptions
Models:- WaterGAP (integrated water quantity model)- simple model on urban waste water treatment plants
Output:- water stress, water availability, water use (by domestic, electricity, industry, agriculture sectors) - per 0.5° grid- waste water from households, waste water treatment, nutrient discharges from treatment plants
European Environment Agency
Alternative scenarios and variantsAlternative scenarios and variants• Air and climate change:
• Air: Maximum Technical Feasible Reductions• CC: ‘Low GHG emissions’ scenario, low economic growth,
accelerated penetration of renewables, accelerated decommissioning / adoption of nuclear
• Agriculture:• Best practices for fertiliser handling, liberalisation of animal
product markets (Extended CAP reform), a stronger EURO
• Waste and material flows:• ‘Low GHG emissions’ scenario (for fossil fuels only), low
economic growth, Landfill Directive (biodegradable municipal waste)
• Water stress:• ‘Low GHG emissions’ scenario, low economic growth, non-
convergence of per capita water use in the New-10