Post on 06-Jul-2015
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Ethernet: The Next 40 Years
Jane Li Huawei Enterprise USA April, 2013
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 2
1973 Memo
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 3
“Lost” Steve Jobs Speech from 1983
“In a few years people will be spending more time interacting with personal computers than with cars.” “When we have portable computers with radio links, people could be walking around anywhere and pick up their e-mail.” “We are about 5 years away from solving networking in the office and 10-15 years from solving networking in the home.”
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 4
Who we reached out to in 2013
Ray Mota PhD ACG Research
Michael Howard
Infonetics
Phil Delansay PhD
Aquantia
Manoj Wadekar
QLogic
Guido Appenzeller PhD Big Switch
Scott Kipp Brocade
Sergis Mushell Gartner
Greg Scherer
Broadcom
Bruce Tolley PhD Solareflare
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 5
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 6
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
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07 08 09 10 11 12
12.6
18.0
21.5
27.6
32.4
38.7
Growing Fast
Billions
Innovation Leader
$3.76 billion R&D in 2011
70,000 R&D employees
15 R&D centers
26,539 patent applications
granted (by June 2012).
150,000 employees
In over 150 countries
25 Innovation Centers
45 Training Centers
Global Company
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 7
ICT Infrastructure
Cloud Providers
Carriers CT
IT
2010 1950’s 2000’s 1990’s 1970’s
Client/Processing
terminal/Data terminal
Mainframe
computer/TC
Server/Client
Mobile
narrowband
Analog
communications
Digital
communications
Mobile broadband
Enterprises
Mobile Clients
Serving the Converging Market for ICT
2020
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 8
Video Conferencing
Telco Infrastructure
Smart Phones Carrier
Switches & Routers
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 9
Leading the Migration from IT to ICT
Air Travel Cell Phones ICT
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
$ B
illio
ns
Fly Drive Compute The Freedom to…
Autos
Talk
Waves of Global Innovation, Higher Quality and Lower Price
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 10
Ethernet: The Next 40 Years
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 11
1Gbs
10Gbs
100Gbs
1Tbs
10Tbs
100Tbs
100Mbs
10Mbs
Network Speed Road Map 1Pbs
500Gbs
5Tbs
50Tbs (Petahertz)
50Gbs
5Gbs (Gigahertz)
Ethernet
Wireless
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 12
2013 – 2033:Video Content Takes Off
"The most critical technical element was AV Concepts' proprietary Liquid Scenic server that delivered uncompressed media for 3 stacked 1920 x 1080 images [1Tbs], delivering 54,000 lumens of incredibly clear projected imagery."
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 13
2013-2033: Big Data Explodes
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 14
2013 – 2033: We Break the Light Barrier
Silicon Photonics Enable Tb Data Rates
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 15
2013-2033: Edge Switching is Redefined
Switches in Processors Enable server fabrics to scale out with lower power, latency & jitter
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 16
2013-2033: Global Bare Metal Networks
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 17
2013-2033: Carriers & Data Centers Merge
MicroSprint
1889 1900 1921 1939 1964 1969 1984
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 18
2013-2033: The Cloud Becomes a Utility Grid
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 19
Supercomputer Performance Road Map
1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053
GigaFlops
TeraFlops
PetaFlops
ExaFlops
ZettaFlops
YottaFlops
BrontoFlops
GeoFlops
AMD Promises 10TFlop Notebooks by 2020
2001: #1 on Top500 is LLNL @ 7 TFlops
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 20
2033-2053: Petaflops on the desktop
Zettaflop supercomputer performance
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 21
2033 – 2053: 10 Billion Humans Join the Network
100 billion neurons 100 trillion connections
2.5 Petabytes of memory 12W
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 22
2033 – 2053: Brain Computer Interface Defined
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 23
2045 Avatar Project Milestones
Avatar D 2040- 2045 A hologram-like avatar
Avatar C 2030- 2035 An avatar with an artificial brain in which a human personality is transferred at the end of one’s life
Avatar B 2020- 2025 An avatar in which a human brain in transplanted at the end of one’s life
Avatar A 2010- 2020 A robotic copy of a human body remotely controlled via BCI
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 24
Beyond 2053: Brain to Brain Interface Defined
Huawei Enterprise Confidential Page 25
“Never Bet Against Ethernet” - Ray Mota, ACG