Ethernet- The Next 40 Years

Ethernet: The Next 40 Years

Jane Li Huawei Enterprise USA April, 2013

Huawei Enterprise Confidential

1973 Memo


“Lost” Steve Jobs Speech from 1983

“In a few years people will be spending more time interacting with personal computers than with cars.” “When we have portable computers with radio links, people could be walking around anywhere and pick up their e-mail.” “We are about 5 years away from solving networking in the office and 10-15 years from solving networking in the home.”


Who we reached out to in 2013

Ray Mota PhD ACG Research

Michael Howard

Infonetics

Phil Delansay PhD

Aquantia

Manoj Wadekar

QLogic

Guido Appenzeller PhD Big Switch

Scott Kipp Brocade

Sergis Mushell Gartner

Greg Scherer

Broadcom

Bruce Tolley PhD Solareflare


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07 08 09 10 11 12

12.6

18.0

21.5

27.6

32.4

38.7

Growing Fast

Billions

Innovation Leader

$3.76 billion R&D in 2011

70,000 R&D employees

15 R&D centers

26,539 patent applications

granted (by June 2012).

150,000 employees

In over 150 countries

25 Innovation Centers

45 Training Centers

Global Company


ICT Infrastructure

Cloud Providers

Carriers CT

IT

2010 1950’s 2000’s 1990’s 1970’s

Client/Processing

terminal/Data terminal

Mainframe

computer/TC

Server/Client

Mobile

narrowband

Analog

communications

Digital

communications

Mobile broadband

Enterprises

Mobile Clients

Serving the Converging Market for ICT

2020


Video Conferencing

Telco Infrastructure

Smart Phones Carrier

Switches & Routers


Leading the Migration from IT to ICT

Air Travel Cell Phones ICT

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

$ B

illio

ns

Fly Drive Compute The Freedom to…

Autos

Talk

Waves of Global Innovation, Higher Quality and Lower Price


Ethernet: The Next 40 Years


1Gbs

10Gbs

100Gbs

1Tbs

10Tbs

100Tbs

100Mbs

10Mbs

Network Speed Road Map 1Pbs

500Gbs

5Tbs

50Tbs (Petahertz)

50Gbs

5Gbs (Gigahertz)

Ethernet

Wireless


2013 – 2033:Video Content Takes Off

"The most critical technical element was AV Concepts' proprietary Liquid Scenic server that delivered uncompressed media for 3 stacked 1920 x 1080 images [1Tbs], delivering 54,000 lumens of incredibly clear projected imagery."


2013-2033: Big Data Explodes


2013 – 2033: We Break the Light Barrier

Silicon Photonics Enable Tb Data Rates


2013-2033: Edge Switching is Redefined

Switches in Processors Enable server fabrics to scale out with lower power, latency & jitter


2013-2033: Global Bare Metal Networks


2013-2033: Carriers & Data Centers Merge

MicroSprint

1889 1900 1921 1939 1964 1969 1984


2013-2033: The Cloud Becomes a Utility Grid


Supercomputer Performance Road Map

1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 2053

GigaFlops

TeraFlops

PetaFlops

ExaFlops

ZettaFlops

YottaFlops

BrontoFlops

GeoFlops

AMD Promises 10TFlop Notebooks by 2020

2001: #1 on Top500 is LLNL @ 7 TFlops


2033-2053: Petaflops on the desktop

Zettaflop supercomputer performance


2033 – 2053: 10 Billion Humans Join the Network

100 billion neurons 100 trillion connections

2.5 Petabytes of memory 12W


2033 – 2053: Brain Computer Interface Defined


2045 Avatar Project Milestones

Avatar D 2040- 2045 A hologram-like avatar

Avatar C 2030- 2035 An avatar with an artificial brain in which a human personality is transferred at the end of one’s life

Avatar B 2020- 2025 An avatar in which a human brain in transplanted at the end of one’s life

Avatar A 2010- 2020 A robotic copy of a human body remotely controlled via BCI


Beyond 2053: Brain to Brain Interface Defined


“Never Bet Against Ethernet” - Ray Mota, ACG

Ethernet- The Next 40 Years

Devices & Hardware

Transcript of Ethernet- The Next 40 Years