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2 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2015:TRENDS & PROSPECTS
Quarterly Report (Q2/2015)
A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Group
of the European Travel Commission (ETC)
by Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)
Brussels, July 2015
ETC Market Intelligence Report
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 3
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Copyright © 2015 European Travel Commission
European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source
is given accurately and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for
own or internal use only. While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible
websites, this should be done via a link to ETC's corporate website, www.etc-
corporate.org, referring visitors to the Research/Trends Watch section.
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do
not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive
Unit of the European Travel Commission.
Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database /
http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO.
Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and
are for interpretation by users according to their needs.
Published and printed by the European Travel Commission
Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
Website: www.etc-corporate.org
Email: info@visiteurope.com
ISSN No: 2034-9297
This report was compiled and edited by:
Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)
on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group
Cover: Ruins of the ancient city of Kourion, CyprusCopyright belongs to Kirill__M
In memoriam Mr Tom Ylkänen
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4 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Foreword
Sustained growth for European tourism in 2015
Growth remains solid at the beginning of the yearconfirming the continued positive performance of
European destinations. Positive results before the
summer period are driven by increased demand
from both intra-regional and overseas markets.These results confirm the sustained upward trend
estimated for 2015 and proves the on-going
efforts of destinations to fight seasonality.
The vast majority of reporting ETC destinationsrecord increased numbers of international tourists
arriving in the first five months1 compared to the
same period last year. Destinations registering a
substantial increase are Iceland (+30%),
Montenegro (+19%) and Romania (+16%). Other
destinations posting double-digit growth rates are
Ireland, Cyprus, and Slovenia accounting for a
+14%, +10% and +10% increase respectively.
Amongst Europe’s most popular destinationsGermany (+5%), Spain (+4%), Italy (+4%) and the
UK (+3%) see handsome growth in international
arrivals, with the peak travel season yet to begin.
Among the top performers are also Balkan
countries, Croatia and Serbia, recording increased
number of arrivals by +14% and +10%
respectively at the end of April.
Some destinations continue to feel the slowing ofRussian travel demand. Finland sees its
international tourist arrivals slump (-11%), being
strongly affected by dwindling numbers of Russian
holiday-makers. Arrivals in Baltic countries are
also consistently low in Latvia (+1%) and
Lithuania (-1%) whereas foreign arrivals in
Estonia (-9%) plunge dramatically suffering a
painful setback attributed to the Russia Effect in
Russian travel demand.
Overall, European air traffic continues to grow in2015 with Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK)
increasing by 5% as compared to the same period
last year and in spite of economic uncertainties
and recent disruption caused by striking air traffic
controllers in France, Spain and Germany.
Generally speaking, travel flows from and to
Europe are boosting momentum based on YTD
data.
1 Year-to-date data reported by individual destinations varies between January andMay.
International Traffic by Region of Airline registration
% change, year ago
Source: Compiled by UNWTO from IATA
Russia, Inbound travel by destination, YTD growth (top),
share of foreign arrivals (bottom)
Source: TourMIS
International Tourist Arrivals 2015
2015 YTD, % change year ago
Source: ETC based on TourMIS data
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 5
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Growth momentum projected from largest long-haul market
Outbound flows from the largest European source markets have gained momentum inthe first months in 2015 contributing to the resilience of the European tourism sector.
Although the Eurozone is still facing economic challenges and uncertainties, this does
not appear to suppose a drawback for travel-hungry citizens from Germany, the
Netherlands, France and Italy who are positively stimulating the tourism sector this
year. Moreover, travel from the United Kingdom is spurred by favourable exchange
rates in the continent. Long-haul markets appear to be faring even better contributing
significantly to growth in European tourism and with increased demand coming
especially from the USA and Asian markets.
Economic indicators suggest a positive recovery in the USA in 2015 as the countryshows signs of a solid rebound supported by a stronger US dollar, higher disposable
income, an increase in power spending, and business and consumer confidence. As a
matter of fact, this dispersed concerns few months back when GDP fell sharply. In
addition, according to the World Economic Outlook report2, growth is expected to
reach 3.1% percent in 2015. Additionally, a weaker euro will keep posing an upturn in
long-haul travel demand from the USA. In the contrary, economic growth in China is
estimated to follow a more modest pace. Nevertheless, the Chinese travel outboundmarket keeps showing signs of growth posting increasing results in European
destinations. Japan began the year gaining momentum owing to economic
improvements despite GDP contraction and a weaker yen. Notwithstanding, Europe
still remains an aspirational destinations for both Chinese and Japanese outbound
travellers.
As expected, the Russian outbound travel market remains lower facing difficulties tolevel off while the economy is still expected to suffer a deep backdrop this year. A
decrease in oil prices and the consequent plunge in the rouble against the euro are
expected to hit European tourism destinations in 2015 while international sanctions
have already affected on the tourist industry. Foreign travel has become costly for
Russian tourists with traditional hot-spot destinations being the most affected.Besides, as the influx of tourists across borders declines so is the spending among
those that actually travel as their expenditure sharply plummeted by 6% in 20143.
Fostering competitiveness at a pan-European level
International tourism worldwide is experiencing growth primarily driven by theperformance of advanced economies and long-haul markets. The travel and tourism
sector still remains Europe’s main driver of growth under the cloud of socio -economic
disruptions. However, to ensure Europe’s leading position as the #1 tourist destination
worldwide amid a challenging and uncertain socio-economic environment, European
tourism organisations are called to foster sustainable product development and
promotion encouraging the diversity of products and experiences offered by the
destination at a pan-European level.
“In order to remain the world’s first tourist destination, Europe must respond to shiftingpatterns in global tourism capitalizing on the potential of tomorrow’s outbound travel
markets whose expanding middle-classes are a growing market for European
destinations”, said Eduardo Santander, Executive Director European Travel
Commission.
Jennifer Iduh (ETC Executive Unit)
With the contribution of the ETC Market Intelligence Group
2 World Economic Outlook Report www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdf 3 UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, Volume 13, April 2015
http://etc-corporate.org/?page=market-intelligencehttp://etc-corporate.org/?page=market-intelligencehttp://etc-corporate.org/?page=market-intelligencehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://etc-corporate.org/?page=market-intelligence
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6 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
2015 Tourism Performance Summary
The bulk of reporting countries have continued to welcome increasing numbers of
foreign visitors as well as foreign visitor nights according to data for the first four
months of 2015. A weaker than average euro continues to aid price attractiveness for
Eurozone destinations. A recent study by Tourism Economics estimates that the
dollar ’s 2015 appreciation will result in European inbound arrivals being 1.1% higher
this year than would have been the case had the dollar retained its 2014 value.Therefore, such currency movements have been significant in offsetting weakness
from Russian outbound travel, with European destinations now more affordable than
they were one year ago.
However, it should be noted that these year-to-date trends remain in their infancy,
covering what is low season for many destinations. As such, growth rates shown in
this section are not indicative of expected full year performance but rather serve to
highlight emerging trends.
Top performers in 2015 have changed little from those of 2014 with Iceland in
particular managing to sustain, for the third consecutive year, growth in foreign visits in
excess of 30% based on the first five months of 2015 compared to the same period in
2014. Montenegro has also grown steadily over the past number of years with growth
of 19.3% in foreign visits and growth of 18.1% in overnights based on data to April.
Along with Romania, Montenegro was one of only two reporting destinations which
saw growth in visits from Russia and the only country which saw growth in overnights
from Russia.
Slovakia, after enduring over a year of declining visitor numbers, has finally seen its
fortunes reversed, posting 3.6% growth in foreign visits. However, although of a muchsmaller magnitude than has been observed in recent months, overnights fell by 1.2%.
Despite some concerns that Serbia might be overly reliant on Russian visitors, its
visitor base appears to be well spread with growth so far this year (to April) in excess
of 10% in terms of both foreign visits and foreign overnights. This bolsters Serbia’s
position amongst the many emerging tourism destinations within Europe, having seen
some strong growth in both visits and nights over the past number of years.
Switzerland’s tourism industry has paid the price for removing the Swiss franc’s peg to
the euro, a move designed to safeguard it from depreciation against the US dollar.
However, this means that a holiday to Switzerland is now relatively more expensive
when priced in euro terms. Visits to Switzerland fell by 0.1% in the first four months of2015 compared to the same period in 2014, while overnights fell by 3%.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
I c e l a n d
M o n t e n e g r o
R o m a n i a
C r o a t i a
I r e l a n d R e p
S e r b i a
S l o v e n i a
C y p r u s
H u n g a r y
B u l g a r i a
C z e c h R e p
A u s t r i a
M a l t a
G e r m a n y
P o l a n d
N e t h e r l a n d s
S p a i n
I t a l y
S l o v a k i a
L a t v i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
T u r k e y
L i t h u a n i a
E s t o n i a
F i n l a n d
Foreign visits to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
30.4
-12.1 -10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
M o n t e n e g r o
C r o a t i a
S e r b i a
N e t h e r l a n d s
P o r t u g a l
N o r w a y
S w e d e n
P o l a n d
S l o v e n i a
H u n g a r y
G e r m a n y
A u s t r i a
D e n m a r k
M a l t a
C z e c h R e p
I t a l y
S p a i n
L a t v i a
L u x e m b o u r g
S l o v a k i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
L i t h u a n i a
E s t o n i a
F i n l a n d
Foreign visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
-11
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 7
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Estonia and Finland’s recent decline highlight the vulnerability of being overly reliant
on any one source market. However, since these countries tend to be popular winter
destinations for Russian tourists, arrivals will likely rebound as the summer months
offer an opportunity for these countries to capitalise on the weaker euro.
The possibility that Greece might be forced to leave the Eurozone remains a key risk,
with discussions between Greece and its creditors still ongoing at the time of writing.
Nevertheless, hotels data for Athens remains robust suggesting that some confidencein the Greek economic growth remained during the first half of the year. We will
continue to monitor Greek performance closely in the coming weeks and months.
Country % ytd to month % ytd to month
Austria 6.3 Jan-May 4.0 Jan-May
Bulgaria 7.1 Jan-Apr
Croatia 13.5 Jan-May 14.7 Jan-May
Cyprus 9.6 Jan-May
Czech Rep 6.7 Jan-Mar 3.3 Jan-Feb
Denmark 3.5 Jan-Apr
Estonia -8.8 Jan-Apr -7.5 Jan-Apr
Finland -12.1 Jan-Apr -11.0 Jan-Apr
Germany 5.1 Jan-Apr 4.2 Jan-Apr
Greece
Hungary 9.6 Jan-Apr 5.8 Jan-Apr
Iceland 30.4 Jan-May
Ireland Rep 12.1 Jan-May
Italy 4.3 Jan-Mar 3.3 Jan-Mar
Latvia 1.0 Jan-Mar -0.1 Jan-Mar
Lithuania -0.9 Jan-Mar -4.3 Jan-Mar Luxembourg -1.0 Jan-Apr
Malta 5.7 Jan-Apr 3.5 Jan-Apr
Montenegro 19.3 Jan-Apr 18.1 Jan-Apr
Netherlands 4.5 Jan-Mar 10.4 Jan-Mar
Norway 9.1 Jan-Apr
Poland 4.7 Jan-Mar 7.8 Jan-Mar
Portugal 9.2 Jan-Mar
Romania 16.0 Jan-Apr
Serbia 10.3 Jan-Apr 13.7 Jan-Apr
Slovakia 3.6 Jan-Mar -1.2 Jan-Mar
Slovenia 9.8 Jan-Apr 5.9 Jan-Apr
Spain 4.4 Jan-Apr 2.7 Jan-Apr
Sweden 8.1 Jan-Apr
Switzerland -0.1 Jan-Apr -3.0 Jan-Apr Turkey -0.5 Jan-Apr
UK 3.0 Jan-Apr
Source: TourMIS, http://www.tourmis.info; available data as of 1.7.15
Measures used for nights and arrivals vary by country
See TourMIS for further data including absolute values.
Tourist Arrivals and Nights
2015 Performance, Year to Date
International Arrivals International Nights
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8 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Global Tourism Forecast Summary
Tourism Economics’ global travel forecasts are shown on an inbound and outbound
basis in the following table. These are the results of the Tourism Decision
Metrics (TDM) model, which is updated in detail three times per year. Forecasts are
consistent with Oxford Economics’ macroeconomic outlook according to estimated
relationships between tourism and the wider economy. Full origin-destination
country detail is available online to subscribers.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
data/estimate/forecast *** d d e f f d d e f f
World 4.6% 4.4% 3.6% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.4% 3.6% 4.3% 4.7%
Americas 3.0% 8.1% 3.6% 3.6% 4.1% 2.7% 4.0% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1%
North America 3.4% 9.2% 3.4% 3.6% 4.3% 1.8% 3.7% 5.9% 4.7% 4.1%
Caribbean 2.1% 6.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.8% -1.6% 4.7% 5.6% 6.5% 8.2%
Central & South America 2.7% 5.9% 4.8% 4.1% 3.7% 6.6% 4.6% 1.1% 2.3% 3.4%
Europe 4.8% 2.7% 2.5% 4.2% 3.7% 3.6% 2.5% 1.6% 4.0% 4.0%
ETC+3 4.4% 4.7% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 1.7% 3.8% 4.1% 4.7% 3.6%
EU 3.9% 4.7% 3.7% 4.2% 2.9% 1.1% 3.7% 4.1% 4.8% 3.6%
Non-EU 8.1% -3.8% -1.8% 4.3% 6.9% 11.4% -0.9% -5.6% 1.6% 5.1%
Northern 2.9% 3.5% 4.4% 4.1% 3.4% 1.3% 3.9% 4.6% 4.9% 3.4%
Western 2.5% 1.9% 3.4% 3.9% 2.0% 1.4% 4.1% 3.4% 4.5% 3.5%
Southern/Mediterranean 6.4% 7.2% 4.2% 4.8% 4.0% 0.7% 6.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3%
Central/Eastern 6.3% -3.6% -2.7% 3.4% 5.9% 9.3% -1.8% -2.8% 3.4% 6.1%
- Central & Baltic 4.7% 6.5% 2.4% 3.8% 3.8% 5.1% 0.2% 6.3% 6.5% 5.6%
Asia & the Pacific 6.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.0% 5.8% 7.1% 6.7% 4.9% 4.4% 5.7%North East 3.5% 7.3% 5.7% 4.7% 6.6% 6.9% 7.9% 5.1% 4.2% 5.7%
South East 11.3% 2.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.0% 8.9% 1.4% 5.8% 4.7% 5.3%
South 7.7% 9.5% 6.8% 4.0% 6.1% 4.4% 15.5% 3.3% 5.7% 5.9%
Oceania 4.0% 6.2% 3.8% 5.4% 4.1% 5.3% 4.3% -0.8% 5.3% 8.0%
Africa 0.4% 2.2% 4.9% 4.3% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 5.3% 3.9% 3.7%
Mid East 3.5% 7.8% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 2.9% 8.3% 7.6% 6.3% 6.2%
* Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional flows
** Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinations
Note: world inbound and outbound do not match exactly in his toric data or forecast. This is due to visi ts to multiple destinations.
For example, one outbound trip may b e to more than one destination. Some sample error may also b e evident in historic data.
*** d - data reported by national statistical agencies are available for all years to 2014 e - 2015 estimated using all available year-to-date data, and forecasts for the rest of the year
f - forecasts according to Tourism Economics' global economic and tourism forecast models
ETC+3 = ETC members plus France, Netherlands, and UK
EU = Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Germany, Hungary,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK
Non-EU Europe is all European countries (listed below ) outside EU
Northern Europe = Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norw ay, Sw eden, UK
Western Europe = Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sw itzerland
Southern/Mediterranean Europe = Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy, Malta,
Central/Eastern Europe = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Ukraine
of w hich
Central Europe & Baltic countries = Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia
TDM Visitor Growth Forecasts, % change
Outbound**Inbound*
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 9
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Recent Industry Performance
Air Transport
Revenue Passenger Kilometers continue to
grow steadily in 2015 with growth of 6.3% to April compared to the same period of 2014.
There is little indication that such growth will
cease anytime soon.
All regions have contributed to this growth with
the exception of Africa which has dragged on
World growth in each of the four months of this
year. Lower oil prices are still the prime culprit
with African producers hostage to a higher
breakeven price per barrel of oil produced,
which in turn has dampened outbound travel
demand. The ongoing terror threat exemplifiedby recent events in Tunisia has many
countries on high alert, as well as some
lingering ebola concerns, may still be deterring
some inbound travel.
Asia/Pacific enjoyed a boost in March
potentially linked to a post-Lunar New Year
pick-up, and the region has enjoyed 8.7%
growth so far this year. However, there has
been a notable weakening in regional trade in
recent months, which has, and will continue to
stifle some business-related travel.
Travel to and from Europe maintains its
momentum according to year-to-date data to
April, growing by 4.8% compared to the same
period in 2014. Moreover, this upward trend is
likely to continue despite some downward
pressures on economic progress due to
firming in the euro as well as oil prices.
For North American carriers, although RPK
grew by 2.4% YTD to April, the stronger US
dollar will have dragged on inbound travel
growth to the reigon.
Strong industry growth a positive sign
RPK continues to grow smoothly
Last-minute cancellations of planned strike action mean only minor disruption
was caused by industry protestors
A strong dollar helps boost travel growth between Europe and the Americas
which continues to outpace total European air passenger traffic growth
European hotel performance is broadly positive across all measures.
-5
0
5
10
15
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America
Mid .East N.America World
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15
% year
Source: IATA
Monthly international air passenger growth
-5
0
5
10
15
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America
Mid .East N.America World
2013 2014 2015 ytd
% year, RPK
Source: IATA
Annual international air passenger growth
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total
3mth mav
Source: IATA
Icelandic AshCloud Impact
International air passenger traffic growth% year, Revenue Passenger Kilometers
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10 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Data from the Association of European Airlines (AEA) shows lower European airline
capacity for much of the beginning of 2015 compared to 2014. However this gap
closed towards the end of Q2 where a continuation of the current trend would suggest
European airlines will be operating with greater capacity than at the same time in
2014. Although oil prices have largely stabilised after a lengthy period of decline, with
data suggesting that next to none of the lower world oil prices was passed onto the
consumer, this should have no bearing on demand. Airlines were reluctant to increase
their capacity in line with demand in order to keep prices high. Strike action lasting 48hours taken by French air traffic controllers in relation to changes to the age of
retirement caused some disruption, with a small contraction in airline capacity
observed at the beginning of Q2. Passenger load factor (PLF) appears to be following
a broadly similar pattern as in 2013 and 2014, with the exception of the strike
disruption.
Travel between Europe and Asia increased at a faster rate than total European airline
passenger growth throughout most of 2014, but slowed later in the year and into 2015
in line with slowing Chinese consumer spending. Long haul travel from Asian markets
is likely to grow in line with economic trends in the region, which is to pick up from the
slower pace of growth observed in recent months. On the whole, air passenger traffic
between Europe and the Americas continued to grow at a faster rate than total
scheduled travel to and from Europe in 2015 to date. United States outbound travel to
Europe is likely to be particularly strong, driven by the appreciation of the dollar
against most key currencies – and notably against the euro – as well as by favourable
economic conditions in the United States. Recent analysis by Tourism Economics
estimates that the dollar ’s recent appreciation will result in European inbound arrivals
being 1.1% higher in 2015 than they would have been had the dollar retained its 2014
value. This highlights the significance of air passenger flows between these two
regions.
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015
Weekly load factor, %
Source: AEA
European airlines passenger load factor
-5
0
5
10
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 2014 2015
ASK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago
Source: AEA
European airlines capacity
-4-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2 0 1 2 Q 1
2 0 1 2 Q 2
2 0 1 2 Q 3
2 0 1 2 Q 4
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3
2 0 1 3 Q 4
2 0 1 4 Q 1
2 0 1 4 Q 2
2 0 1 4 Q 3
2 0 1 4 Q 4
2 0 1 5 Q 1
2 0 1 5 Q 2
Americas Total
RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago
RPK = revenue passenger kmsSource: AEA
European airline passenger traffic: Americas
-4-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2 0 1 2 Q 1
2 0 1 2 Q 2
2 0 1 2 Q 3
2 0 1 2 Q 4
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3
2 0 1 3 Q 4
2 0 1 4 Q 1
2 0 1 4 Q 2
2 0 1 4 Q 3
2 0 1 4 Q 4
2 0 1 5 Q 1
2 0 1 5 Q 2
Asia Total
RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago
RPK = revenue passenger kmsSource: AEA
European airline passenger traffic: Asia
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 11
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Accommodation
Occupancy rates grew across all regions of the World based on data to May
compared to the same period in 2014. Occupancy rates in Europe saw the greatest
gains, up 2.3% compared to the first four months of 2014. In the Americas, occupancy
rates were 2% higher than in the same period in 2014. In the Middle East/Africa and
Asia/Pacific, occupancy rates increased by 1%, and 0.4% respectively. When
denominated in US dollar terms, monetary performance measures were much more
varied. Asia/Pacific and the Middle East/Africa, both average daily rate (ADR) and
revenue per available room (RevPAR) fell. In the case of Asia/Pacific these fell by
6.3% and 5.9% respectively and in the Middle East/Africa by 2.7% and 1.7%
respectively. However, if denominated in euro terms, these same measures were
comfortably positive, reflecting the vast gains made by the US dollar on foreign
exchange markets and the added relative expense incurred by a Eurozone traveller
wishing to go beyond the Eurozone.
Asia/Pacific Americas Europe MiddleEast/Africa
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20 Occ ADR* RevPAR*
Global Hotel Performance, Jan-May 2015
% change year ago
Source: STR Global * ADR and RevPAR denominated in US$ except for Europe
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12 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
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Key Source Market Performance
Trends discussed in this section relate to the first five months of the year, although actual
coverage varies by destination; for the majority of countries March or April will be the latest
available data point.
Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination, including absolute values, can be
obtained from TourMIS, http://tourmis.info.
Key intra-European markets
Montenegro is now the top European destination in the eyes of the German traveller,
reportedly receiving 49.9% more foreign visits in the first four months of 2015 than it
did during the same period of 2014. Overnight visits from Germany grew by 73.2%.
Still in its low season, Montenegro looks well placed to see even more growth from
Germany as high season air corridors continue to open and operate at higher
frequencies.
Croatia has also seen a large increase in the number of German visitors it received,and should be well placed to maintain momentum into the summer months for the
same reasons as Montenegro.
German interest in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Switzerland has waned as the year has
progressed. Interestingly, none of the three are in the European monetary union,
suggesting that the decline in interest is economically motivated more than anything
else as these destinations have lost some competitiveness.
This is particularly clear in the case of Switzerland which is one of the more costly
European countries to live and holiday in. Latest data suggests a revival of interest in
its Eurozone neighbours as the relative weakness of the euro will have made trips to
non-Eurozone countries less viable than they were this time last year.
Mostly a picture of growth
European travel demand continues to grow across the majority of markets
Falling oil prices and a weaker euro have mostly had a positive impact
Russian economy has shown some signs of improvement with exports helping
to stabilise the falling rouble, but this has yet to boost outbound tourism with
almost all countries reporting falls
A strong US and Canadian dollar, and a weaker euro have boosted long-haul
travel demand
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
M o n t e n e g r o
C r o a t i a
I c e l a n d
C y p r u s
L a t v i a
C z e c h R e p
N e t h e r l a n d s
P o l a n d
E s t o n i a
F i n l a n d
S l o v a k i a
M a l t a
A u s t r i a
T u r k e y
S l o v e n i a
R o m a n i a
L i t h u a n i a
S p a i n
S e r b i a
I t a l y
H u n g a r y
B u l g a r i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
Visits from Germany to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
35.4
39.9
49.9
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
M o n t e n e g r o
C r o a t i a
L a t v i a
N e t h e r l a n d s
C z e c h R e p
S e r b i a
P o r t u g a l
L u x e m b o u r g
P o l a n d
M a l t a
F i n l a n d
S l o v a k i a
A u s t r i a
D e n m a r k
L i t h u a n i a
S w e d e n
E s t o n i a
N o r w a y
I t a l y
S l o v e n i a
S p a i n
H u n g a r y
S w i t z e r l a n d
German visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
46.5
73.2 34.3
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 13
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Latvia and Estonia have enjoyed large gains in the number of visits and overnights
from Netherlands, aided by an ever increasing air network linking Western and
Northern Europe and eastern European countries. Other emerging European
destinations such as Slovenia, Iceland, and Croatia also saw gains in Dutch visits and
overnights. The southern climes of Cyprus and Italy have also gained increased
interest from the Netherlands so far in 2015 (based on data to May and March
respectively) with visits growth of 21.8% and 40.7%.
Similar to German sentiment, Switzerland has lost out on some visitors from the
Netherlands, likely linked to the decision at the beginning of the year the Swiss
National Bank made the decision to abandon its three year old cap against the euro.
Interestingly, it was economic and political instability in the Eurozone in 2011 which
prompted the move to impose the cap. Three years later, similar economic and
political instability surrounded the reversal of that decision.
Many European destinations have seen the number of visits received from France
grow markedly so far this year. Chief recipients of this growth were largely emergingdestinations such as Lithuania, Iceland, Latvia, Montenegro, and Serbia but the
French continue to show increasing interest in some of Europe’s more mature
destinations such as Cyprus, Portugal, and Spain.
Turkey endured substantial losses in terms of the number of French visitors it
received: in the first four months of 2015 it welcomed 21.1% less visitors than in the
same period of 2014. Switzerland once again finds itself losing visits from a large
European source market with visits having fallen by 7.3% and overnights by 7.2%.
Combined with losses from elsewhere, Switzerland looks unlikely to end the year with
a net gain in visitor numbers compared to 2014. Denmark is also experiencing lower
French demand and euro weakness is likely the root cause of falling French visitors
numbers across the majority of affected countries.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
C y p r u s
L a t v i a
I t a l y
E s t o n i a
P o l a n d
I c e l a n d
C z e c h R e p
L i t h u a n i a
S l o v e n i a
S l o v a k i a
A u s t r i a
G e r m a n y
R o m a n i a
B u l g a r i a
F i n l a n d
C r o a t i a
M a l t a
S p a i n
S w i t z e r l a n d
H u n g a r y
M o n t e n e g r o
S e r b i a
T u r k e y
Visits from Netherlands to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
40.7
36.7
21.8
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
L a t v i a
I t a l y
E s t o n i a
C z e c h R e p
S l o v e n i a
S w e d e n
P o l a n d
N o r w a y
L u x e m b o u r g
P o r t u g a l
A u s t r i a
S l o v a k i a
G e r m a n y
S e r b i a
M a l t a
F i n l a n d
C r o a t i a
L i t h u a n i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
S p a i n
H u n g a r y
M o n t e n e g r o
D e n m a r k
Netherlands nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
-25
37
-20.2
30.3
35.2 20.7
-21.3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
L i t h u a n i a
C y p r u s
I c e l a n d
L a t v i a
M o n t e n e g r o
E s t o n i a
S e r b i a
F i n l a n d
M a l t a
B u l g a r i a
H u n g a r y
P o l a n d
S l o v a k i a
R o m a n i a
S p a i n
G e r m a n y
C z e c h R e p
N e t h e r l a n d s
I t a l y
A u s t r i a
C r o a t i a
S l o v e n i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
T u r k e y
Visits from France to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
47.1
44.7
36.5
32.8
-21.1-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
L i t h u a n i a
S e r b i a
N o r w a y
P o r t u g a l
E s t o n i a
L a t v i a
M a l t a
P o l a n d
S p a i n
H u n g a r y
C z e c h R e p
F i n l a n d
N e t h e r l a n d s
S w e d e n
G e r m a n y
S l o v a k i a
I t a l y
M o n t e n e g r o
A u s t r i a
C r o a t i a
D e n m a r k
L u x e m b o u r g
S w i t z e r l a n d
S l o v e n i a
French visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
41.8
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14 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Lithuania had a larger number of Italian visitors pass through its borders in the first
three months of 2015 compared to the same period last year. Ireland has also fared
well, receiving 36.2% more Italian visitors to March compared to the same period in
2014. At least some proportion of these additional visits was displaced travel
otherwise destined for the UK had euro weakness not made Ireland the more
appealing option. The weaker euro has also paved the way for other, less expensive,
non-Eurozone destinations such as Poland and Czech Republic to gain share at the
expense of other, more expensive, non-Eurozone destinations such as Switzerlandand Denmark.
The relative strength of British pound against the euro has made the Eurozone a more
appealing destination for the British visitor. Only Switzerland, which is not a member of
the European monetary union, reported falling visits from the UK and only a minority of
countries reported falls in the number overnights.
It was Baltic and Eastern European destinations which proved most popular withLatvia, Slovakia, and Lithuania all enjoying growth in British visitor numbers in excess
of 40%. Montenegro and Romania also gained share, receiving 36.7% and 21.2%
more visits in the first four months of 2015 compared to 2014 respectively.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
L i t h u a n i a
I c e l a n d
S
l o v a k i a
P o l a n d
E s t o n i a
L a t v i a
B
u l g a r i a
R
o m a n i a
M a l t a
H
u n g a r y
S p a i n
F i n l a n d
M o n
t e n e g r o
S
l o v e n i a
C z e
c h R e p
G
e r m a n y
A u s t r i a
C r o a t i a
N e t h
e r l a n d s
S e r b i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
C y p r u s
T u r k e y
Visits from Italy to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
37.7
36.2
35
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
L i t h u a n i a
P
o r t u g a l
M a l t a
P o l a n d
E s t o n i a
S p a i n
C z e
c h R e p
S
l o v a k i a
H
u n g a r y
F i n l a n d
L a t v i a
S
l o v e n i a
N e t h
e r l a n d s
M o n
t e n e g r o
S w e d e n
S e r b i a
G
e r m a n y
A u s t r i a
C r o a t i a
L u x e
m b o u r g
S w i t z e r l a n d
D
e n m a r k
Italian visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
11 8 30 .5
23.226
24 20.2
37.4
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
L i t h u a n i a
S l o v a k i a
L a t v i a
H u n g a r y
M o n t e n e g r o
E s t o n i a
N o r w a y
C z e c h R e p
N e t h e r l a n d s
S w e d e n
D e n m a r k
P o l a n d
S l o v e n i a
G e r m a n y
A u s t r i a
P o r t u g a l
C r o a t i a
L u x e m b o u r g
F i n l a n d
M a l t a
S p a i n
S w i t z e r l a n d
S e r b i a
I t a l y
British visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
68
52.7
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
L a t v i a
S l o v a k i a
L i t h u a n i a
M o n t e n e g r o
H u n g a r y
I c e l a n d
R o m a n i a
C y p r u s
E s t o n i a
B u l g a r i a
C z e c h R e p
I t a l y
S l o v e n i a
I r e l a n d R e p
A u s t r i a
G e r m a n y
S p a i n
N e t h e r l a n d s
M a l t a
P o l a n d
C r o a t i a
T u r k e y
F i n l a n d
S e r b i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
Visits from UK to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 15
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
The recent announcement that EU foreign ministers have extended economic
sanctions against Russia until the end of January 2016 as well as latest trends point to
further falls in Russian travel demand.
All but two reporting destinations have recorded falling arrivals from Russia and all but
one has recorded falling nights – including some traditional Russian holiday hotspots
such as Turkey and Estonia.
These large falls partly reflect the impact of falling oil prices on Russian aggregate
income as well as other political and economic uncertainties which caused the rouble
to depreciate markedly (over the better part of a year) making foreign travel relatively
more expensive for the Russian traveller. Since January, however, the rouble has
seen something of a rebound and with oil prices now relatively stable, although at a
much lower level than one year ago, the economy appears to be on a slightly firmer
footing. However, current economic and tourism demand remains well below levels
experienced in early 2014 and all indicators still point to a deep recession in Russia
this year. An eventual recovery in tourism demand is possible towards the end of the
year albeit from a very low base.
Montenegro was one of only two reporting destinations which saw visits from Russia
grow by 2.4% and overnights by 5% in the first four months of 2015 compared to the
same period in 2014.
Romania – the only other country to see visits growth from Russia – has been one of
the most forthright backers of EU sanctions and has urged both NATO and the United
States to step-up military presence. Interestingly, however, this seems not to have
deterred Russians from visiting with numbers up 2.2% to April compared to the same
period in 2014.
Greek-Russian relations may yield some benefits for Greece in 2015 as the new
government begins to forge alliances beyond the EU and through its lax imposition of
Western-led sanctions against Russia, arguably preparing for the worst in terms of its
future as an EU member state.
Because the Russia-Ukraine crisis began in mid-March 2014, we are still comparing
post-crisis data with mostly pre-crisis data and these falls should become less
substantial once the annual comparison is based on a post-crisis period.
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
M o n t e n e g r o
R o m a n i a
S e r b i a
C r o a t i a
I t a l y
C y p r u s
S
l o v e n i a
S p a i n
T u r k e y
B
u l g a r i a
G e r m a n y
H
u n g a r y
S w i t z e r l a n d
A u s t r i a
I c e l a n d
N e t h e r l a n d s
L i t h u a n i a
S
l o v a k i a
L a t v i a
E s t o n i a
C z e
c h R e p
F i n l a n d
P o l a n d
M a l t a
Visits from Russia to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
M o n t e n e g r o
L u x e m b o u r g
S e r b i a
C r o a t i a
I t a l y
N o r w a y
S p a i n
S w i t z e r l a n d
G e r m a n y
N e t h e r l a n d s
P
o r t u g a l
S
w e d e n
H
u n g a r y
A u s t r i a
D e n m a r k
S
l o v e n i a
L i t h u a n i a
L a t v i a
E s t o n i a
C z e
c h R e p
S
l o v a k i a
F i n l a n d
P o l a n d
M a l t a
Russian visitor nights in select destinations
2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
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16 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Non-European markets
Latest data show that travel to Europe from the US was positive in all but a few
reporting destinations. The US economy continues to strengthen according to the
latest economic data with an upswing in consumer spending through jobs and wage
growth. There remains scope for growth in outbound travel particularly in terms of long
haul travel, helped by appreciation in the dollar against key currencies such as the
euro.
Latvia and Iceland enjoyed particularly strong visits growth from the US by 45.4% and
42.4% respectively, based on data to March and May. Many other European
destinations, both emerging and mature, have seen arrivals from the US grow as the
stronger dollar and favourable economic conditions make travel to these destinations
more viable than they would have been as recently as a year ago.
However, some destinations saw arrivals fall – most notably Malta and Cyprus which
received 10.8% and 33.4% less visits from the US respectively.
Data pertaining to Japanese visitors suggests an appetite for emerging, particularly
Eastern European destinations such as Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Lithuania, all of
which posted visits growth of 29% or more.
Visits and overnights from Japan suggest that the export-led policies of the Bank of
Japan have not affected travel behaviour as much as initially feared in spite of lower
spending power in international markets from the weaker yen. The number of
European countries that reported a growing number of arrivals from Japan versus
falling arrivals continues to grow.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
L a t v i a
I c e l a n d
S e r b i a
E s t o n i a
H u n g a r y
M o n t e n e g r o
L i t h u a n i a
R o m a n i a
S l o v a k i a
C r o a t i a
C z e c h R e p
S l o v e n i a
S p a i n
B u l g a r i a
T u r k e y
A u s t r i a
F i n l a n d
S w i t z e r l a n d
P o l a n d
G e r m a n y
I t a l y
N e t h e r l a n d s
M a l t a
C y p r u s
Visits from US to select destinations
2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
42.445.4
-33.4
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
M o n t e n e g r o
L a t v i a
S e r b i a
C r o a t i a
H u n g a r y
L u x e m b o u r g
S l o v e n i a
C z e c h R e p
S l o v a k i a
S p a i n
D e n m a r k
P o r t u g a l
A u s t r i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
G e r m a n y
P o l a n d
F i n l a n d
N o r w a y
N e t h e r l a n d s
I t a l y
S w e d e n
M a l t a
L i t h u a n i a
US visitor nights in select destinations
2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
66.1
-24.5
57.1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
C y p r u s
L a t v i a
E s t o n i a
P o l a n d
I t a l y
L i t h u a n i a
S p a i n
S l o v e n i a
I c e l a n d
C r o a t i a
A u s t r i a
G e r m a n y
S l o v a k i a
H u n g a r y
C z e c h R e p
S w i t z e r l a n d
F i n l a n d
S e r b i a
N e t h e r l a n d s
B u l g a r i a
T u r k e y
M o n t e n e g r o
Visits from Japan to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
57.3
46.4
-64.5
58.1
106
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
I t a l y
E s t o n i a
S p a i n
S l o v e n i a
P o l a n d
L a t v i a
L i t h u a n i a
C r o a t i a
S l o v a k i a
N o r w a y
G e r m a n y
A u s t r i a
L
u x e m b o u r g
S w e d e n
H u n g a r y
C z e c h R e p
N e t h e r l a n d s
D e n m a r k
S w i t z e r l a n d
F i n l a n d
P o r t u g a l
S e r b i a
M o n t e n e g r o
Japanese visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
58.4
46.2
44.4
-52.7
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 17
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Outbound travel from China continues to gain momentum as 2015 progresses in
terms of both visits and overnights with double digit growth observed in all but a
handful of destinations. This is positive amid concerns of a slowdown in the Chinese
economy and industrial activity and both consumer surveys and retail sales data
remain robust. Travel to Europe as a whole was estimated to have grown by over 17%
in 2014 as a whole – the fifth consecutive year of growth. However, given the relatively
small volumes, travel from China to Europe should not be overvalued, accounting for
just 1.5% of European arrivals in 2014.
As with China, arrivals growth from India was positive in the majority of European
destinations for which there was data, and in many cases double digit growth was
reported. Croatia has seen the highest rate of growth relative to the comparable period
in 2014 enjoying overnights growth of 96.5% based on data to May. Montenegro,
according to data to April, has seen overnight arrivals from India grow by 28.4%,
which, while impressive, falls far short of the triple digit growth (161%) observed
earlier in the year. At the same time visits from India decreased (by 37.7%) indicatingthat although less are coming, those that do are staying sufficiently long enough to
offset the fall in visits.
Indian arrivals still represent a relatively small proportion of total European arrivals and
some volatility should be expected but with limited impact on overall destination
performance. In the longer-term, growth prospects remain strong with potential
economic reform. Given these positive economic trends, there is clear potential for
India to catch-up with China as an emerging source market.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
C r o a t i a
S p a i n
H u n g a r y
C z e c h R e p
A u s t r i a
F i n l a n d
G e r m a n y
L a t v i a
B u l g a r i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
T u r k e y
P o l a n d
I t a l y
S l o v a k i a
N e t h e r l a n d s
M o n t e n e g r o
Visits from India to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
79.2
-37.7
77.7
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
C r o a t i a
H u n g a r y
S p a i n
C z e c h R e p
L a t v i a
A u s t r i a
M o n t e n e g r o
P o l a n d
D e n m a r k
F i n l a n d
G e r m a n y
N e t h e r l a n d s
S l o v a k i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
S w e d e n
I t a l y
Indian visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
96.5 63.4
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
C y p r u s
S e r b i a
S l o v a k i a
I c e l a n d
C r o a t i a
S p a i n
S l o v e n i a
T u r k e y
A u s t r i a
L a t v i a
I t a l y
S w i t z e r l a n d
G e r m a n y
L i t h u a n i a
R o m a n i a
F i n l a n d
C z e c h R e p
N e t h e r l a n d s
H u n g a r y
P o l a n d
E s t o n i a
M o n t e n e g r o
B u l g a r i a
Visits from China to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
145
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
L i t h u a n i a
N o r w a y
S e r b i a
S l o v a k i a
C r o a t i a
S l o v e n i a
D e n m a r k
A u s t r i a
F i n l a n d I t a l y
S w i t z e r l a n d
P o l a n d
E s t o n i a
H u n g a r y
C z e c h R e p
G e r m a n y
L a t v i a
S p a i n
L u x e m b o u r g
S w e d e n
M o n t e n e g r o
N e t h e r l a n d s
Chinese visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
176.8
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18 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Some promising growth from Canada has been reported by the majority of reporting
destinations, many of which have seen visits and overnights from Canada grow by
double digit figures. Falling World oil prices caused the Canadian dollar to depreciate
against its US counterpart, making US holidays less appealing. At the same time, the
Canadian dollar appreciated against the euro, making European destinations more
attractive.
Lithuania, Serbia, and Spain were some of the destinations to benefit from thesecurrency movements with visitor numbers growing by 60.8%, 34.6%, and 29.4%,
respectively. Many other destinations reported strong, double-digit growth rates,
including some large developed markets, indicating the benefit of the increased price
attractiveness.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
L i t h u a n i a
S e r b i a
S p a i n
L a t v i a
I t a l y
S l o v e n i a
C r o a t i a
S l o v a k i a
T u r k e y
H u n g a r y
P o l a n d
C z e c h R e p
R o m a n i a
I c e l a n d
B u l g a r i a
N e t h e r l a n d s
G e r m a n y
S w i t z e r l a n d
A u s t r i a
M o n t e n e g r o
F i n l a n d
C y p r u s
Visits from Canada to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
60.8
34.6
-51.0-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
S e r b i a
S l o v e n i a
S p a i n
M o n t e n e g r o
P o r t u g a l
L a t v i a
C r o a t i a
S l o v a k i a
P o l a n d
L i t h u a n i a
N e t h e r l a n d s
H u n g a r y
I t a l y
S w i t z e r l a n d
G e r m a n y
C z e c h R e p
D e n m a r k
A u s t r i a
F i n l a n d
S w e d e n
Canadian visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination
61.842.4
38.932.1
-39.5
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 19
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Origin Market Share Analysis
Based on the Tourism Decision Metrics (TDM) model, the following charts and
analysis show Europe’s evolving market position – in absolute and percentage terms –
for selected source markets. 2015 values are year-to-date estimates based on the
latest available data and are not final reported numbers.
United States
Methodology note:
Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals
in all destinations as a comparable measure of outbound
travel for calculation of market share.
For example, US outbound figures featured in the
analysis is larger than reported departures in national
statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple
destinations; in 2014 US data reporting shows 11.9m
departures to Europe while the sum of European arrivals
from the US was 23.4m. Thus each US trip to Europe
involved a visit to two destinations on average.
Note: this analysis is based on the Tourism Decision Metrics
(TDM) model. The geographies of Europe are defined as:
Northern Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland,
Norway, Sweden, UK
Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland
Southern/Mediterranean Europe: Albania, Bosnia-
Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy,
Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey
Central/Eastern Europe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation,
Slovakia, Ukraine
Level* ShareAnnual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
Total outbound travel (000s) 95,788 - 4.1% 22.2% - 26.1% -
of which:
Long haul (000s) 58,750 61.3% 5.0% 27.7% 64.1% 28.6% 60.1%
Short haul (000s) 37,039 38.7% 2.6% 13.4% 35.9% 22.3% 39.9%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 25,560 26.7% 4.5% 24.8% 27.3% 31.8% 25.5%
Northern Europe (000s) 5,887 6.1% 6.0% 34.1% 6.7% 29.2% 6.0%
Western Europe (000s) 9,573 10.0% 3.5% 18.8% 9.7% 27.4% 9.9%
Southern Europe (000s) 6,569 6.9% 3.8% 20.5% 6.8% 34.5% 6.4%
Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 3,531 3.7% 5.9% 33.5% 4.0% 44.6% 3.2%
US Market Share Summary
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
* Levels are in 000s unless otherwise specified
*** Shares are expressed as a % of total outbound travel
** Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%20%
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 0
Europe's share of US marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
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20 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Canada long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
2%
4%6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 0
Europe's share of Canadian market Northern EuropeWestern Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource: Tourism Economics
Canada
Note: this analysis is based on the Tourism Decision Metrics
(TDM) model. The geographies of Europe are defined as:
Northern Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland,
Norway, Sweden, UK
Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland
Southern/Mediterranean Europe: Albania, Bosnia-
Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy,
Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey
Central/Eastern Europe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation,
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals
in all destinations as a comparable measure of outbound
travel for calculation of market share.
For example, US outbound figures featured in the
analysis is larger than reported departures in national
statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple
destinations; in 2014 US data reporting shows 11.9m
departures to Europe while the sum of European arrivals
from the US was 23.4m. Thus each US trip to Europe
involved a visit to two destinations on average.
Level* ShareAnnual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
Total outbound travel (000s) 35,775 - 4.3% 23.5% - 14.8% -
of which:
Long haul (000s) 11,329 31. 7% 4.7% 26.0% 32.3% 9.2% 33.3%
Short haul (000s) 24,446 68. 3% 4.1% 22.4% 67.7% 17.7% 66.7%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 4,301 12.0% 2.5% 13.1% 11.0% 9.1% 12.7%
Northern Europe (000s) 986 2.8% 5.6% 31.5% 2.9% 12.9% 2.8%
Western Europe (000s) 1,547 4.3% 1.4% 7.0% 3.7% -3.5% 5.1%
Southern Europe (000s) 1,581 4.4% 1.1% 5.4% 3.8% 30.6% 3.9%
Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 187 0.5% 5.6% 31.6% 0.6% -27.0% 0.8%
*** Shares are expressed as a % of total outbound travel
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
Canada Market Share Summary
* Levels are in 000s unless otherwise specified** Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated
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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 21
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Mexico
Note: this analysis is based on the Tourism Decision Metrics
(TDM) model. The geographies of Europe are defined as:
Northern Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland,
Norway, Sweden, UK
Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland
Southern/Mediterranean Europe: Albania, Bosnia-
Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy,
Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey
Central/Eastern Europe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation,
Slovakia, Ukraine
Methodology note:
Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals
in all destinations as a comparable measure of outbound
travel for calculation of market share.
For example, US outbound figures featured in the
analysis is larger than reported departures in national
statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple
destinations; in 2014 US data reporting shows 11.9m
departures to Europe while the sum of European arrivals
from the US was 23.4m. Thus each US trip to Europe
involved a visit to two destinations on average.
Level* ShareAnnual
average
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2020
Cumulative
growth**
Share
2010
Total outbound travel (000s) 20,265 - 5.4% 30.0% - 32.9% -
of which:
Long haul (000s) 2,393 11.8% 4.6% 25.1% 11.4% 44.6% 10.8%
Short haul (000s) 17,873 88.2% 5.5% 30.7% 88.6% 31.5% 89.2%
Travel to Europe***
Europe (000s) 1,254 6.2% 2.6% 13.9% 5.4% 46.8% 5.6%
Northern Europe (000s) 99 0.5% 4.4% 24.3% 0.5% 48.5% 0.4%
Western Europe (000s) 577 2.8% 3.3% 17.9% 2.6% 36.4% 2.8%
Southern Europe (000s) 445 2.2% 0.7% 3.6% 1.8% 57.9% 1.8%
Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 132 0.7% 4.3% 23.3% 0.6% 61.2% 0.5%
*** Shares are expressed as a % of total outbound travel
** Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated* Levels are in 000s unless otherwise specified
Mexico Market Share Summary
2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mexico long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 0
Europe's share of Mexican marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource: Tourism Economics
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22 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)
© European Travel Commission, July 2015
Argentina
Note: this analysis is based on the Tourism Decision Metrics
(TDM) model. The geographies of Europe are defined as:
Northern Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland,
Norway, Sweden, UK
Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland
Southern/Mediterranean Europe: Albania, Bosnia-
Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy,
Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey
Central/Eastern Europe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria,