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2 European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015)

© European Travel Commission, July 2015

EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2015:TRENDS & PROSPECTS

Quarterly Report (Q2/2015)

A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Group

of the European Travel Commission (ETC)

by Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)

Brussels, July 2015

ETC Market Intelligence Report


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European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) 3


Copyright © 2015 European Travel Commission

European Tourism in 2015: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2015) All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source

is given accurately and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for

own or internal use only. While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible

websites, this should be done via a link to ETC's corporate website, www.etc-

corporate.org, referring visitors to the Research/Trends Watch section.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do

not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive

Unit of the European Travel Commission.

Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database /

http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO.

Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and

are for interpretation by users according to their needs.

Published and printed by the European Travel Commission

Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, Belgium

Website: www.etc-corporate.org

Email: [email protected]

ISSN No: 2034-9297

This report was compiled and edited by:

Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)

on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group

Cover: Ruins of the ancient city of Kourion, CyprusCopyright belongs to Kirill__M

In memoriam Mr Tom Ylkänen

http://oebf1w-srv-001/jobs/Tourism%20Economics/Jobs/ETC/October%2014/www.etc-corporate.orghttp://oebf1w-srv-001/jobs/Tourism%20Economics/Jobs/ETC/October%2014/www.etc-corporate.orghttp://www.tourmis.info/index_e.htmlhttp://www.etc-corporate.org/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.etc-corporate.org/http://www.tourmis.info/index_e.htmlhttp://oebf1w-srv-001/jobs/Tourism%20Economics/Jobs/ETC/October%2014/www.etc-corporate.orghttp://oebf1w-srv-001/jobs/Tourism%20Economics/Jobs/ETC/October%2014/www.etc-corporate.org


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Foreword

Sustained growth for European tourism in 2015

Growth remains solid at the beginning of the yearconfirming the continued positive performance of

European destinations. Positive results before the

summer period are driven by increased demand

from both intra-regional and overseas markets.These results confirm the sustained upward trend

estimated for 2015 and proves the on-going

efforts of destinations to fight seasonality.

The vast majority of reporting ETC destinationsrecord increased numbers of international tourists

arriving in the first five months1 compared to the

same period last year. Destinations registering a

substantial increase are Iceland (+30%),

Montenegro (+19%) and Romania (+16%). Other

destinations posting double-digit growth rates are

Ireland, Cyprus, and Slovenia accounting for a

+14%, +10% and +10% increase respectively.

Amongst Europe’s most popular destinationsGermany (+5%), Spain (+4%), Italy (+4%) and the

UK (+3%) see handsome growth in international

arrivals, with the peak travel season yet to begin.

Among the top performers are also Balkan

countries, Croatia and Serbia, recording increased

number of arrivals by +14% and +10%

respectively at the end of April.

Some destinations continue to feel the slowing ofRussian travel demand. Finland sees its

international tourist arrivals slump (-11%), being

strongly affected by dwindling numbers of Russian

holiday-makers. Arrivals in Baltic countries are

also consistently low in Latvia (+1%) and

Lithuania (-1%) whereas foreign arrivals in

Estonia (-9%) plunge dramatically suffering a

painful setback attributed to the Russia Effect in

Russian travel demand.

Overall, European air traffic continues to grow in2015 with Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK)

increasing by 5% as compared to the same period

last year and in spite of economic uncertainties

and recent disruption caused by striking air traffic

controllers in France, Spain and Germany.

Generally speaking, travel flows from and to

Europe are boosting momentum based on YTD

data.

1 Year-to-date data reported by individual destinations varies between January andMay.

International Traffic by Region of Airline registration

% change, year ago

Source: Compiled by UNWTO from IATA

Russia, Inbound travel by destination, YTD growth (top),

share of foreign arrivals (bottom)

Source: TourMIS

International Tourist Arrivals 2015

2015 YTD, % change year ago

Source: ETC based on TourMIS data


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Growth momentum projected from largest long-haul market

Outbound flows from the largest European source markets have gained momentum inthe first months in 2015 contributing to the resilience of the European tourism sector.

Although the Eurozone is still facing economic challenges and uncertainties, this does

not appear to suppose a drawback for travel-hungry citizens from Germany, the

Netherlands, France and Italy who are positively stimulating the tourism sector this

year. Moreover, travel from the United Kingdom is spurred by favourable exchange

rates in the continent. Long-haul markets appear to be faring even better contributing

significantly to growth in European tourism and with increased demand coming

especially from the USA and Asian markets.

Economic indicators suggest a positive recovery in the USA in 2015 as the countryshows signs of a solid rebound supported by a stronger US dollar, higher disposable

income, an increase in power spending, and business and consumer confidence. As a

matter of fact, this dispersed concerns few months back when GDP fell sharply. In

addition, according to the World Economic Outlook report2, growth is expected to

reach 3.1% percent in 2015. Additionally, a weaker euro will keep posing an upturn in

long-haul travel demand from the USA. In the contrary, economic growth in China is

estimated to follow a more modest pace. Nevertheless, the Chinese travel outboundmarket keeps showing signs of growth posting increasing results in European

destinations. Japan began the year gaining momentum owing to economic

improvements despite GDP contraction and a weaker yen. Notwithstanding, Europe

still remains an aspirational destinations for both Chinese and Japanese outbound

travellers.

As expected, the Russian outbound travel market remains lower facing difficulties tolevel off while the economy is still expected to suffer a deep backdrop this year. A

decrease in oil prices and the consequent plunge in the rouble against the euro are

expected to hit European tourism destinations in 2015 while international sanctions

have already affected on the tourist industry. Foreign travel has become costly for

Russian tourists with traditional hot-spot destinations being the most affected.Besides, as the influx of tourists across borders declines so is the spending among

those that actually travel as their expenditure sharply plummeted by 6% in 20143.

Fostering competitiveness at a pan-European level

International tourism worldwide is experiencing growth primarily driven by theperformance of advanced economies and long-haul markets. The travel and tourism

sector still remains Europe’s main driver of growth under the cloud of socio -economic

disruptions. However, to ensure Europe’s leading position as the #1 tourist destination

worldwide amid a challenging and uncertain socio-economic environment, European

tourism organisations are called to foster sustainable product development and

promotion encouraging the diversity of products and experiences offered by the

destination at a pan-European level.

“In order to remain the world’s first tourist destination, Europe must respond to shiftingpatterns in global tourism capitalizing on the potential of tomorrow’s outbound travel

markets whose expanding middle-classes are a growing market for European

destinations”, said Eduardo Santander, Executive Director European Travel

Commission.

Jennifer Iduh (ETC Executive Unit)

With the contribution of the ETC Market Intelligence Group

2 World Economic Outlook Report www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdf 3 UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, Volume 13, April 2015

http://etc-corporate.org/?page=market-intelligencehttp://etc-corporate.org/?page=market-intelligencehttp://etc-corporate.org/?page=market-intelligencehttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/pdf/text.pdfhttp://etc-corporate.org/?page=market-intelligence


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2015 Tourism Performance Summary

The bulk of reporting countries have continued to welcome increasing numbers of

foreign visitors as well as foreign visitor nights according to data for the first four

months of 2015. A weaker than average euro continues to aid price attractiveness for

Eurozone destinations. A recent study by Tourism Economics estimates that the

dollar ’s 2015 appreciation will result in European inbound arrivals being 1.1% higher

this year than would have been the case had the dollar retained its 2014 value.Therefore, such currency movements have been significant in offsetting weakness

from Russian outbound travel, with European destinations now more affordable than

they were one year ago.

However, it should be noted that these year-to-date trends remain in their infancy,

covering what is low season for many destinations. As such, growth rates shown in

this section are not indicative of expected full year performance but rather serve to

highlight emerging trends.

Top performers in 2015 have changed little from those of 2014 with Iceland in

particular managing to sustain, for the third consecutive year, growth in foreign visits in

excess of 30% based on the first five months of 2015 compared to the same period in

2014. Montenegro has also grown steadily over the past number of years with growth

of 19.3% in foreign visits and growth of 18.1% in overnights based on data to April.

Along with Romania, Montenegro was one of only two reporting destinations which

saw growth in visits from Russia and the only country which saw growth in overnights

from Russia.

Slovakia, after enduring over a year of declining visitor numbers, has finally seen its

fortunes reversed, posting 3.6% growth in foreign visits. However, although of a muchsmaller magnitude than has been observed in recent months, overnights fell by 1.2%.

Despite some concerns that Serbia might be overly reliant on Russian visitors, its

visitor base appears to be well spread with growth so far this year (to April) in excess

of 10% in terms of both foreign visits and foreign overnights. This bolsters Serbia’s

position amongst the many emerging tourism destinations within Europe, having seen

some strong growth in both visits and nights over the past number of years.

Switzerland’s tourism industry has paid the price for removing the Swiss franc’s peg to

the euro, a move designed to safeguard it from depreciation against the US dollar.

However, this means that a holiday to Switzerland is now relatively more expensive

when priced in euro terms. Visits to Switzerland fell by 0.1% in the first four months of2015 compared to the same period in 2014, while overnights fell by 3%.

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I c e l a n d

M o n t e n e g r o

R o m a n i a

C r o a t i a

I r e l a n d R e p

S e r b i a

S l o v e n i a

C y p r u s

H u n g a r y

B u l g a r i a

C z e c h R e p

A u s t r i a

M a l t a

G e r m a n y

P o l a n d

N e t h e r l a n d s

S p a i n

I t a l y

S l o v a k i a

L a t v i a

S w i t z e r l a n d

T u r k e y

L i t h u a n i a

E s t o n i a

F i n l a n d

Foreign visits to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago

Source: TourMIS *date varies (Jan-May) by destination

30.4

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M o n t e n e g r o

C r o a t i a

S e r b i a


P o r t u g a l

N o r w a y

S w e d e n

P o l a n d

S l o v e n i a

H u n g a r y

G e r m a n y

A u s t r i a

D e n m a r k

M a l t a

C z e c h R e p

I t a l y

S p a i n

L a t v i a

L u x e m b o u r g

S l o v a k i a


L i t h u a n i a

E s t o n i a

F i n l a n d

Foreign visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


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Estonia and Finland’s recent decline highlight the vulnerability of being overly reliant

on any one source market. However, since these countries tend to be popular winter

destinations for Russian tourists, arrivals will likely rebound as the summer months

offer an opportunity for these countries to capitalise on the weaker euro.

The possibility that Greece might be forced to leave the Eurozone remains a key risk,

with discussions between Greece and its creditors still ongoing at the time of writing.

Nevertheless, hotels data for Athens remains robust suggesting that some confidencein the Greek economic growth remained during the first half of the year. We will

continue to monitor Greek performance closely in the coming weeks and months.

Country % ytd to month % ytd to month

Austria 6.3 Jan-May 4.0 Jan-May

Bulgaria 7.1 Jan-Apr

Croatia 13.5 Jan-May 14.7 Jan-May

Cyprus 9.6 Jan-May

Czech Rep 6.7 Jan-Mar 3.3 Jan-Feb

Denmark 3.5 Jan-Apr

Estonia -8.8 Jan-Apr -7.5 Jan-Apr

Finland -12.1 Jan-Apr -11.0 Jan-Apr

Germany 5.1 Jan-Apr 4.2 Jan-Apr

Greece

Hungary 9.6 Jan-Apr 5.8 Jan-Apr

Iceland 30.4 Jan-May

Ireland Rep 12.1 Jan-May

Italy 4.3 Jan-Mar 3.3 Jan-Mar

Latvia 1.0 Jan-Mar -0.1 Jan-Mar

Lithuania -0.9 Jan-Mar -4.3 Jan-Mar Luxembourg -1.0 Jan-Apr

Malta 5.7 Jan-Apr 3.5 Jan-Apr

Montenegro 19.3 Jan-Apr 18.1 Jan-Apr

Netherlands 4.5 Jan-Mar 10.4 Jan-Mar

Norway 9.1 Jan-Apr

Poland 4.7 Jan-Mar 7.8 Jan-Mar

Portugal 9.2 Jan-Mar

Romania 16.0 Jan-Apr

Serbia 10.3 Jan-Apr 13.7 Jan-Apr

Slovakia 3.6 Jan-Mar -1.2 Jan-Mar

Slovenia 9.8 Jan-Apr 5.9 Jan-Apr

Spain 4.4 Jan-Apr 2.7 Jan-Apr

Sweden 8.1 Jan-Apr

Switzerland -0.1 Jan-Apr -3.0 Jan-Apr Turkey -0.5 Jan-Apr

UK 3.0 Jan-Apr

Source: TourMIS, http://www.tourmis.info; available data as of 1.7.15

Measures used for nights and arrivals vary by country

See TourMIS for further data including absolute values.

Tourist Arrivals and Nights

2015 Performance, Year to Date

International Arrivals International Nights


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Global Tourism Forecast Summary

Tourism Economics’ global travel forecasts are shown on an inbound and outbound

basis in the following table. These are the results of the Tourism Decision

Metrics (TDM) model, which is updated in detail three times per year. Forecasts are

consistent with Oxford Economics’ macroeconomic outlook according to estimated

relationships between tourism and the wider economy. Full origin-destination

country detail is available online to subscribers.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

data/estimate/forecast *** d d e f f d d e f f

World 4.6% 4.4% 3.6% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.4% 3.6% 4.3% 4.7%

Americas 3.0% 8.1% 3.6% 3.6% 4.1% 2.7% 4.0% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1%

North America 3.4% 9.2% 3.4% 3.6% 4.3% 1.8% 3.7% 5.9% 4.7% 4.1%

Caribbean 2.1% 6.2% 2.5% 3.0% 3.8% -1.6% 4.7% 5.6% 6.5% 8.2%

Central & South America 2.7% 5.9% 4.8% 4.1% 3.7% 6.6% 4.6% 1.1% 2.3% 3.4%

Europe 4.8% 2.7% 2.5% 4.2% 3.7% 3.6% 2.5% 1.6% 4.0% 4.0%

ETC+3 4.4% 4.7% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 1.7% 3.8% 4.1% 4.7% 3.6%

EU 3.9% 4.7% 3.7% 4.2% 2.9% 1.1% 3.7% 4.1% 4.8% 3.6%

Non-EU 8.1% -3.8% -1.8% 4.3% 6.9% 11.4% -0.9% -5.6% 1.6% 5.1%

Northern 2.9% 3.5% 4.4% 4.1% 3.4% 1.3% 3.9% 4.6% 4.9% 3.4%

Western 2.5% 1.9% 3.4% 3.9% 2.0% 1.4% 4.1% 3.4% 4.5% 3.5%

Southern/Mediterranean 6.4% 7.2% 4.2% 4.8% 4.0% 0.7% 6.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3%

Central/Eastern 6.3% -3.6% -2.7% 3.4% 5.9% 9.3% -1.8% -2.8% 3.4% 6.1%

- Central & Baltic 4.7% 6.5% 2.4% 3.8% 3.8% 5.1% 0.2% 6.3% 6.5% 5.6%

Asia & the Pacific 6.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.0% 5.8% 7.1% 6.7% 4.9% 4.4% 5.7%North East 3.5% 7.3% 5.7% 4.7% 6.6% 6.9% 7.9% 5.1% 4.2% 5.7%

South East 11.3% 2.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.0% 8.9% 1.4% 5.8% 4.7% 5.3%

South 7.7% 9.5% 6.8% 4.0% 6.1% 4.4% 15.5% 3.3% 5.7% 5.9%

Oceania 4.0% 6.2% 3.8% 5.4% 4.1% 5.3% 4.3% -0.8% 5.3% 8.0%

Africa 0.4% 2.2% 4.9% 4.3% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 5.3% 3.9% 3.7%

Mid East 3.5% 7.8% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 2.9% 8.3% 7.6% 6.3% 6.2%

* Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional flows

** Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinations

Note: world inbound and outbound do not match exactly in his toric data or forecast. This is due to visi ts to multiple destinations.

For example, one outbound trip may b e to more than one destination. Some sample error may also b e evident in historic data.

*** d - data reported by national statistical agencies are available for all years to 2014 e - 2015 estimated using all available year-to-date data, and forecasts for the rest of the year

f - forecasts according to Tourism Economics' global economic and tourism forecast models

ETC+3 = ETC members plus France, Netherlands, and UK

EU = Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Germany, Hungary,

Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia,

Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK

Non-EU Europe is all European countries (listed below ) outside EU

Northern Europe = Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norw ay, Sw eden, UK

Western Europe = Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sw itzerland

Southern/Mediterranean Europe = Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy, Malta,

Central/Eastern Europe = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia,

Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Ukraine

of w hich

Central Europe & Baltic countries = Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia

TDM Visitor Growth Forecasts, % change

Outbound**Inbound*


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Recent Industry Performance

Air Transport

Revenue Passenger Kilometers continue to

grow steadily in 2015 with growth of 6.3% to April compared to the same period of 2014.

There is little indication that such growth will

cease anytime soon.

All regions have contributed to this growth with

the exception of Africa which has dragged on

World growth in each of the four months of this

year. Lower oil prices are still the prime culprit

with African producers hostage to a higher

breakeven price per barrel of oil produced,

which in turn has dampened outbound travel

demand. The ongoing terror threat exemplifiedby recent events in Tunisia has many

countries on high alert, as well as some

lingering ebola concerns, may still be deterring

some inbound travel.

Asia/Pacific enjoyed a boost in March

potentially linked to a post-Lunar New Year

pick-up, and the region has enjoyed 8.7%

growth so far this year. However, there has

been a notable weakening in regional trade in

recent months, which has, and will continue to

stifle some business-related travel.

Travel to and from Europe maintains its

momentum according to year-to-date data to

April, growing by 4.8% compared to the same

period in 2014. Moreover, this upward trend is

likely to continue despite some downward

pressures on economic progress due to

firming in the euro as well as oil prices.

For North American carriers, although RPK

grew by 2.4% YTD to April, the stronger US

dollar will have dragged on inbound travel

growth to the reigon.

Strong industry growth a positive sign

RPK continues to grow smoothly

Last-minute cancellations of planned strike action mean only minor disruption

was caused by industry protestors

A strong dollar helps boost travel growth between Europe and the Americas

which continues to outpace total European air passenger traffic growth

European hotel performance is broadly positive across all measures.

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Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin

America

Mid .East N.America World

Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15

% year

Source: IATA

Monthly international air passenger growth

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Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America

Mid .East N.America World

2013 2014 2015 ytd

% year, RPK

Source: IATA

Annual international air passenger growth

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0

3

6

9

12

15

18

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total

3mth mav

Source: IATA

Icelandic AshCloud Impact

International air passenger traffic growth% year, Revenue Passenger Kilometers


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Data from the Association of European Airlines (AEA) shows lower European airline

capacity for much of the beginning of 2015 compared to 2014. However this gap

closed towards the end of Q2 where a continuation of the current trend would suggest

European airlines will be operating with greater capacity than at the same time in

2014. Although oil prices have largely stabilised after a lengthy period of decline, with

data suggesting that next to none of the lower world oil prices was passed onto the

consumer, this should have no bearing on demand. Airlines were reluctant to increase

their capacity in line with demand in order to keep prices high. Strike action lasting 48hours taken by French air traffic controllers in relation to changes to the age of

retirement caused some disruption, with a small contraction in airline capacity

observed at the beginning of Q2. Passenger load factor (PLF) appears to be following

a broadly similar pattern as in 2013 and 2014, with the exception of the strike

disruption.

Travel between Europe and Asia increased at a faster rate than total European airline

passenger growth throughout most of 2014, but slowed later in the year and into 2015

in line with slowing Chinese consumer spending. Long haul travel from Asian markets

is likely to grow in line with economic trends in the region, which is to pick up from the

slower pace of growth observed in recent months. On the whole, air passenger traffic

between Europe and the Americas continued to grow at a faster rate than total

scheduled travel to and from Europe in 2015 to date. United States outbound travel to

Europe is likely to be particularly strong, driven by the appreciation of the dollar

against most key currencies – and notably against the euro – as well as by favourable

economic conditions in the United States. Recent analysis by Tourism Economics

estimates that the dollar ’s recent appreciation will result in European inbound arrivals

being 1.1% higher in 2015 than they would have been had the dollar retained its 2014

value. This highlights the significance of air passenger flows between these two

regions.

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 2014 2015

Weekly load factor, %

Source: AEA

European airlines passenger load factor

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10

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013 2014 2015

ASK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago

Source: AEA

European airlines capacity

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2 0 1 2 Q 2

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2 0 1 2 Q 4

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2 0 1 3 Q 3

2 0 1 3 Q 4

2 0 1 4 Q 1

2 0 1 4 Q 2

2 0 1 4 Q 3

2 0 1 4 Q 4

2 0 1 5 Q 1

2 0 1 5 Q 2

Americas Total

RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago

RPK = revenue passenger kmsSource: AEA

European airline passenger traffic: Americas

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2 0 1 2 Q 2

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2 0 1 3 Q 2

2 0 1 3 Q 3

2 0 1 3 Q 4

2 0 1 4 Q 1

2 0 1 4 Q 2

2 0 1 4 Q 3

2 0 1 4 Q 4

2 0 1 5 Q 1

2 0 1 5 Q 2

Asia Total

RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago

RPK = revenue passenger kmsSource: AEA

European airline passenger traffic: Asia


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Accommodation

Occupancy rates grew across all regions of the World based on data to May

compared to the same period in 2014. Occupancy rates in Europe saw the greatest

gains, up 2.3% compared to the first four months of 2014. In the Americas, occupancy

rates were 2% higher than in the same period in 2014. In the Middle East/Africa and

Asia/Pacific, occupancy rates increased by 1%, and 0.4% respectively. When

denominated in US dollar terms, monetary performance measures were much more

varied. Asia/Pacific and the Middle East/Africa, both average daily rate (ADR) and

revenue per available room (RevPAR) fell. In the case of Asia/Pacific these fell by

6.3% and 5.9% respectively and in the Middle East/Africa by 2.7% and 1.7%

respectively. However, if denominated in euro terms, these same measures were

comfortably positive, reflecting the vast gains made by the US dollar on foreign

exchange markets and the added relative expense incurred by a Eurozone traveller

wishing to go beyond the Eurozone.

Asia/Pacific Americas Europe MiddleEast/Africa

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20 Occ ADR* RevPAR*

Global Hotel Performance, Jan-May 2015

% change year ago

Source: STR Global * ADR and RevPAR denominated in US$ except for Europe


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Key Source Market Performance

Trends discussed in this section relate to the first five months of the year, although actual

coverage varies by destination; for the majority of countries March or April will be the latest

available data point.

Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination, including absolute values, can be

obtained from TourMIS, http://tourmis.info.

Key intra-European markets

Montenegro is now the top European destination in the eyes of the German traveller,

reportedly receiving 49.9% more foreign visits in the first four months of 2015 than it

did during the same period of 2014. Overnight visits from Germany grew by 73.2%.

Still in its low season, Montenegro looks well placed to see even more growth from

Germany as high season air corridors continue to open and operate at higher

frequencies.

Croatia has also seen a large increase in the number of German visitors it received,and should be well placed to maintain momentum into the summer months for the

same reasons as Montenegro.

German interest in Bulgaria, Hungary, and Switzerland has waned as the year has

progressed. Interestingly, none of the three are in the European monetary union,

suggesting that the decline in interest is economically motivated more than anything

else as these destinations have lost some competitiveness.

This is particularly clear in the case of Switzerland which is one of the more costly

European countries to live and holiday in. Latest data suggests a revival of interest in

its Eurozone neighbours as the relative weakness of the euro will have made trips to

non-Eurozone countries less viable than they were this time last year.

Mostly a picture of growth

European travel demand continues to grow across the majority of markets

Falling oil prices and a weaker euro have mostly had a positive impact

Russian economy has shown some signs of improvement with exports helping

to stabilise the falling rouble, but this has yet to boost outbound tourism with

almost all countries reporting falls

A strong US and Canadian dollar, and a weaker euro have boosted long-haul

travel demand

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30

M o n t e n e g r o

C r o a t i a

I c e l a n d

C y p r u s

L a t v i a

C z e c h R e p


P o l a n d

E s t o n i a

F i n l a n d

S l o v a k i a

M a l t a

A u s t r i a

T u r k e y

S l o v e n i a

R o m a n i a

L i t h u a n i a

S p a i n

S e r b i a

I t a l y

H u n g a r y

B u l g a r i a


Visits from Germany to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


35.4

39.9

49.9

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

M o n t e n e g r o

C r o a t i a

L a t v i a


C z e c h R e p

S e r b i a

P o r t u g a l

L u x e m b o u r g

P o l a n d

M a l t a

F i n l a n d

S l o v a k i a

A u s t r i a

D e n m a r k

L i t h u a n i a

S w e d e n

E s t o n i a

N o r w a y

I t a l y

S l o v e n i a

S p a i n

H u n g a r y


German visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


46.5

73.2 34.3

http://tourmis.info/http://tourmis.info/


13/40



Latvia and Estonia have enjoyed large gains in the number of visits and overnights

from Netherlands, aided by an ever increasing air network linking Western and

Northern Europe and eastern European countries. Other emerging European

destinations such as Slovenia, Iceland, and Croatia also saw gains in Dutch visits and

overnights. The southern climes of Cyprus and Italy have also gained increased

interest from the Netherlands so far in 2015 (based on data to May and March

respectively) with visits growth of 21.8% and 40.7%.

Similar to German sentiment, Switzerland has lost out on some visitors from the

Netherlands, likely linked to the decision at the beginning of the year the Swiss

National Bank made the decision to abandon its three year old cap against the euro.

Interestingly, it was economic and political instability in the Eurozone in 2011 which

prompted the move to impose the cap. Three years later, similar economic and

political instability surrounded the reversal of that decision.

Many European destinations have seen the number of visits received from France

grow markedly so far this year. Chief recipients of this growth were largely emergingdestinations such as Lithuania, Iceland, Latvia, Montenegro, and Serbia but the

French continue to show increasing interest in some of Europe’s more mature

destinations such as Cyprus, Portugal, and Spain.

Turkey endured substantial losses in terms of the number of French visitors it

received: in the first four months of 2015 it welcomed 21.1% less visitors than in the

same period of 2014. Switzerland once again finds itself losing visits from a large

European source market with visits having fallen by 7.3% and overnights by 7.2%.

Combined with losses from elsewhere, Switzerland looks unlikely to end the year with

a net gain in visitor numbers compared to 2014. Denmark is also experiencing lower

French demand and euro weakness is likely the root cause of falling French visitors

numbers across the majority of affected countries.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

C y p r u s

L a t v i a

I t a l y

E s t o n i a

P o l a n d

I c e l a n d

C z e c h R e p

L i t h u a n i a

S l o v e n i a

S l o v a k i a

A u s t r i a

G e r m a n y

R o m a n i a

B u l g a r i a

F i n l a n d

C r o a t i a

M a l t a

S p a i n


H u n g a r y

M o n t e n e g r o

S e r b i a

T u r k e y

Visits from Netherlands to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


40.7

36.7

21.8

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

L a t v i a

I t a l y

E s t o n i a

C z e c h R e p

S l o v e n i a

S w e d e n

P o l a n d

N o r w a y

L u x e m b o u r g

P o r t u g a l

A u s t r i a

S l o v a k i a

G e r m a n y

S e r b i a

M a l t a

F i n l a n d

C r o a t i a

L i t h u a n i a


S p a i n

H u n g a r y

M o n t e n e g r o

D e n m a r k

Netherlands nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


-25

37

-20.2

30.3

35.2 20.7

-21.3

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

L i t h u a n i a

C y p r u s

I c e l a n d

L a t v i a

M o n t e n e g r o

E s t o n i a

S e r b i a

F i n l a n d

M a l t a

B u l g a r i a

H u n g a r y

P o l a n d

S l o v a k i a

R o m a n i a

S p a i n

G e r m a n y

C z e c h R e p


I t a l y

A u s t r i a

C r o a t i a

S l o v e n i a


T u r k e y

Visits from France to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


47.1

44.7

36.5

32.8

-21.1-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

L i t h u a n i a

S e r b i a

N o r w a y

P o r t u g a l

E s t o n i a

L a t v i a

M a l t a

P o l a n d

S p a i n

H u n g a r y

C z e c h R e p

F i n l a n d


S w e d e n

G e r m a n y

S l o v a k i a

I t a l y

M o n t e n e g r o

A u s t r i a

C r o a t i a

D e n m a r k

L u x e m b o u r g


S l o v e n i a

French visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


41.8


14/40



Lithuania had a larger number of Italian visitors pass through its borders in the first

three months of 2015 compared to the same period last year. Ireland has also fared

well, receiving 36.2% more Italian visitors to March compared to the same period in

2014. At least some proportion of these additional visits was displaced travel

otherwise destined for the UK had euro weakness not made Ireland the more

appealing option. The weaker euro has also paved the way for other, less expensive,

non-Eurozone destinations such as Poland and Czech Republic to gain share at the

expense of other, more expensive, non-Eurozone destinations such as Switzerlandand Denmark.

The relative strength of British pound against the euro has made the Eurozone a more

appealing destination for the British visitor. Only Switzerland, which is not a member of

the European monetary union, reported falling visits from the UK and only a minority of

countries reported falls in the number overnights.

It was Baltic and Eastern European destinations which proved most popular withLatvia, Slovakia, and Lithuania all enjoying growth in British visitor numbers in excess

of 40%. Montenegro and Romania also gained share, receiving 36.7% and 21.2%

more visits in the first four months of 2015 compared to 2014 respectively.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

L i t h u a n i a

I c e l a n d

S

l o v a k i a

P o l a n d

E s t o n i a

L a t v i a

B

u l g a r i a

R

o m a n i a

M a l t a

H

u n g a r y

S p a i n

F i n l a n d

M o n

t e n e g r o

S

l o v e n i a

C z e

c h R e p

G

e r m a n y

A u s t r i a

C r o a t i a

N e t h

e r l a n d s

S e r b i a


C y p r u s

T u r k e y

Visits from Italy to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


37.7

36.2

35

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

L i t h u a n i a

P

o r t u g a l

M a l t a

P o l a n d

E s t o n i a

S p a i n

C z e

c h R e p

S

l o v a k i a

H

u n g a r y

F i n l a n d

L a t v i a

S

l o v e n i a

N e t h

e r l a n d s

M o n

t e n e g r o

S w e d e n

S e r b i a

G

e r m a n y

A u s t r i a

C r o a t i a

L u x e

m b o u r g


D

e n m a r k

Italian visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


11 8 30 .5

23.226

24 20.2

37.4

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

L i t h u a n i a

S l o v a k i a

L a t v i a

H u n g a r y

M o n t e n e g r o

E s t o n i a

N o r w a y

C z e c h R e p


S w e d e n

D e n m a r k

P o l a n d

S l o v e n i a

G e r m a n y

A u s t r i a

P o r t u g a l

C r o a t i a

L u x e m b o u r g

F i n l a n d

M a l t a

S p a i n


S e r b i a

I t a l y

British visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


68

52.7

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

L a t v i a

S l o v a k i a

L i t h u a n i a

M o n t e n e g r o

H u n g a r y

I c e l a n d

R o m a n i a

C y p r u s

E s t o n i a

B u l g a r i a

C z e c h R e p

I t a l y

S l o v e n i a

I r e l a n d R e p

A u s t r i a

G e r m a n y

S p a i n


M a l t a

P o l a n d

C r o a t i a

T u r k e y

F i n l a n d

S e r b i a


Visits from UK to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago



15/40



The recent announcement that EU foreign ministers have extended economic

sanctions against Russia until the end of January 2016 as well as latest trends point to

further falls in Russian travel demand.

All but two reporting destinations have recorded falling arrivals from Russia and all but

one has recorded falling nights – including some traditional Russian holiday hotspots

such as Turkey and Estonia.

These large falls partly reflect the impact of falling oil prices on Russian aggregate

income as well as other political and economic uncertainties which caused the rouble

to depreciate markedly (over the better part of a year) making foreign travel relatively

more expensive for the Russian traveller. Since January, however, the rouble has

seen something of a rebound and with oil prices now relatively stable, although at a

much lower level than one year ago, the economy appears to be on a slightly firmer

footing. However, current economic and tourism demand remains well below levels

experienced in early 2014 and all indicators still point to a deep recession in Russia

this year. An eventual recovery in tourism demand is possible towards the end of the

year albeit from a very low base.

Montenegro was one of only two reporting destinations which saw visits from Russia

grow by 2.4% and overnights by 5% in the first four months of 2015 compared to the

same period in 2014.

Romania – the only other country to see visits growth from Russia – has been one of

the most forthright backers of EU sanctions and has urged both NATO and the United

States to step-up military presence. Interestingly, however, this seems not to have

deterred Russians from visiting with numbers up 2.2% to April compared to the same

period in 2014.

Greek-Russian relations may yield some benefits for Greece in 2015 as the new

government begins to forge alliances beyond the EU and through its lax imposition of

Western-led sanctions against Russia, arguably preparing for the worst in terms of its

future as an EU member state.

Because the Russia-Ukraine crisis began in mid-March 2014, we are still comparing

post-crisis data with mostly pre-crisis data and these falls should become less

substantial once the annual comparison is based on a post-crisis period.

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

M o n t e n e g r o

R o m a n i a

S e r b i a

C r o a t i a

I t a l y

C y p r u s

S

l o v e n i a

S p a i n

T u r k e y

B

u l g a r i a

G e r m a n y

H

u n g a r y


A u s t r i a

I c e l a n d


L i t h u a n i a

S

l o v a k i a

L a t v i a

E s t o n i a

C z e

c h R e p

F i n l a n d

P o l a n d

M a l t a

Visits from Russia to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

M o n t e n e g r o

L u x e m b o u r g

S e r b i a

C r o a t i a

I t a l y

N o r w a y

S p a i n


G e r m a n y


P

o r t u g a l

S

w e d e n

H

u n g a r y

A u s t r i a

D e n m a r k

S

l o v e n i a

L i t h u a n i a

L a t v i a

E s t o n i a

C z e

c h R e p

S

l o v a k i a

F i n l a n d

P o l a n d

M a l t a

Russian visitor nights in select destinations

2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago



16/40



Non-European markets

Latest data show that travel to Europe from the US was positive in all but a few

reporting destinations. The US economy continues to strengthen according to the

latest economic data with an upswing in consumer spending through jobs and wage

growth. There remains scope for growth in outbound travel particularly in terms of long

haul travel, helped by appreciation in the dollar against key currencies such as the

euro.

Latvia and Iceland enjoyed particularly strong visits growth from the US by 45.4% and

42.4% respectively, based on data to March and May. Many other European

destinations, both emerging and mature, have seen arrivals from the US grow as the

stronger dollar and favourable economic conditions make travel to these destinations

more viable than they would have been as recently as a year ago.

However, some destinations saw arrivals fall – most notably Malta and Cyprus which

received 10.8% and 33.4% less visits from the US respectively.

Data pertaining to Japanese visitors suggests an appetite for emerging, particularly

Eastern European destinations such as Latvia, Estonia, Poland, and Lithuania, all of

which posted visits growth of 29% or more.

Visits and overnights from Japan suggest that the export-led policies of the Bank of

Japan have not affected travel behaviour as much as initially feared in spite of lower

spending power in international markets from the weaker yen. The number of

European countries that reported a growing number of arrivals from Japan versus

falling arrivals continues to grow.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

L a t v i a

I c e l a n d

S e r b i a

E s t o n i a

H u n g a r y

M o n t e n e g r o

L i t h u a n i a

R o m a n i a

S l o v a k i a

C r o a t i a

C z e c h R e p

S l o v e n i a

S p a i n

B u l g a r i a

T u r k e y

A u s t r i a

F i n l a n d


P o l a n d

G e r m a n y

I t a l y


M a l t a

C y p r u s

Visits from US to select destinations



42.445.4

-33.4

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

M o n t e n e g r o

L a t v i a

S e r b i a

C r o a t i a

H u n g a r y

L u x e m b o u r g

S l o v e n i a

C z e c h R e p

S l o v a k i a

S p a i n

D e n m a r k

P o r t u g a l

A u s t r i a


G e r m a n y

P o l a n d

F i n l a n d

N o r w a y


I t a l y

S w e d e n

M a l t a

L i t h u a n i a

US visitor nights in select destinations



66.1

-24.5

57.1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

C y p r u s

L a t v i a

E s t o n i a

P o l a n d

I t a l y

L i t h u a n i a

S p a i n

S l o v e n i a

I c e l a n d

C r o a t i a

A u s t r i a

G e r m a n y

S l o v a k i a

H u n g a r y

C z e c h R e p


F i n l a n d

S e r b i a


B u l g a r i a

T u r k e y

M o n t e n e g r o

Visits from Japan to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


57.3

46.4

-64.5

58.1

106

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

I t a l y

E s t o n i a

S p a i n

S l o v e n i a

P o l a n d

L a t v i a

L i t h u a n i a

C r o a t i a

S l o v a k i a

N o r w a y

G e r m a n y

A u s t r i a

L

u x e m b o u r g

S w e d e n

H u n g a r y

C z e c h R e p


D e n m a r k


F i n l a n d

P o r t u g a l

S e r b i a

M o n t e n e g r o

Japanese visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


58.4

46.2

44.4

-52.7


17/40



Outbound travel from China continues to gain momentum as 2015 progresses in

terms of both visits and overnights with double digit growth observed in all but a

handful of destinations. This is positive amid concerns of a slowdown in the Chinese

economy and industrial activity and both consumer surveys and retail sales data

remain robust. Travel to Europe as a whole was estimated to have grown by over 17%

in 2014 as a whole – the fifth consecutive year of growth. However, given the relatively

small volumes, travel from China to Europe should not be overvalued, accounting for

just 1.5% of European arrivals in 2014.

As with China, arrivals growth from India was positive in the majority of European

destinations for which there was data, and in many cases double digit growth was

reported. Croatia has seen the highest rate of growth relative to the comparable period

in 2014 enjoying overnights growth of 96.5% based on data to May. Montenegro,

according to data to April, has seen overnight arrivals from India grow by 28.4%,

which, while impressive, falls far short of the triple digit growth (161%) observed

earlier in the year. At the same time visits from India decreased (by 37.7%) indicatingthat although less are coming, those that do are staying sufficiently long enough to

offset the fall in visits.

Indian arrivals still represent a relatively small proportion of total European arrivals and

some volatility should be expected but with limited impact on overall destination

performance. In the longer-term, growth prospects remain strong with potential

economic reform. Given these positive economic trends, there is clear potential for

India to catch-up with China as an emerging source market.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

C r o a t i a

S p a i n

H u n g a r y

C z e c h R e p

A u s t r i a

F i n l a n d

G e r m a n y

L a t v i a

B u l g a r i a


T u r k e y

P o l a n d

I t a l y

S l o v a k i a


M o n t e n e g r o

Visits from India to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


79.2

-37.7

77.7

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

C r o a t i a

H u n g a r y

S p a i n

C z e c h R e p

L a t v i a

A u s t r i a

M o n t e n e g r o

P o l a n d

D e n m a r k

F i n l a n d

G e r m a n y


S l o v a k i a


S w e d e n

I t a l y

Indian visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


96.5 63.4

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

C y p r u s

S e r b i a

S l o v a k i a

I c e l a n d

C r o a t i a

S p a i n

S l o v e n i a

T u r k e y

A u s t r i a

L a t v i a

I t a l y


G e r m a n y

L i t h u a n i a

R o m a n i a

F i n l a n d

C z e c h R e p


H u n g a r y

P o l a n d

E s t o n i a

M o n t e n e g r o

B u l g a r i a

Visits from China to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


145

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

L i t h u a n i a

N o r w a y

S e r b i a

S l o v a k i a

C r o a t i a

S l o v e n i a

D e n m a r k

A u s t r i a

F i n l a n d I t a l y


P o l a n d

E s t o n i a

H u n g a r y

C z e c h R e p

G e r m a n y

L a t v i a

S p a i n

L u x e m b o u r g

S w e d e n

M o n t e n e g r o


Chinese visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


176.8


18/40



Some promising growth from Canada has been reported by the majority of reporting

destinations, many of which have seen visits and overnights from Canada grow by

double digit figures. Falling World oil prices caused the Canadian dollar to depreciate

against its US counterpart, making US holidays less appealing. At the same time, the

Canadian dollar appreciated against the euro, making European destinations more

attractive.

Lithuania, Serbia, and Spain were some of the destinations to benefit from thesecurrency movements with visitor numbers growing by 60.8%, 34.6%, and 29.4%,

respectively. Many other destinations reported strong, double-digit growth rates,

including some large developed markets, indicating the benefit of the increased price

attractiveness.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

L i t h u a n i a

S e r b i a

S p a i n

L a t v i a

I t a l y

S l o v e n i a

C r o a t i a

S l o v a k i a

T u r k e y

H u n g a r y

P o l a n d

C z e c h R e p

R o m a n i a

I c e l a n d

B u l g a r i a


G e r m a n y


A u s t r i a

M o n t e n e g r o

F i n l a n d

C y p r u s

Visits from Canada to select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


60.8

34.6

-51.0-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

S e r b i a

S l o v e n i a

S p a i n

M o n t e n e g r o

P o r t u g a l

L a t v i a

C r o a t i a

S l o v a k i a

P o l a n d

L i t h u a n i a


H u n g a r y

I t a l y


G e r m a n y

C z e c h R e p

D e n m a r k

A u s t r i a

F i n l a n d

S w e d e n

Canadian visitor nights in select destinations2015, year-to-date*, % change year ago


61.842.4

38.932.1

-39.5


19/40



Origin Market Share Analysis

Based on the Tourism Decision Metrics (TDM) model, the following charts and

analysis show Europe’s evolving market position – in absolute and percentage terms –

for selected source markets. 2015 values are year-to-date estimates based on the

latest available data and are not final reported numbers.

United States

Methodology note:

Data in these charts and tables relate to reported arrivals

in all destinations as a comparable measure of outbound

travel for calculation of market share.

For example, US outbound figures featured in the

analysis is larger than reported departures in national

statistics as long-haul trips often involve travel to multiple

destinations; in 2014 US data reporting shows 11.9m

departures to Europe while the sum of European arrivals

from the US was 23.4m. Thus each US trip to Europe

involved a visit to two destinations on average.

Note: this analysis is based on the Tourism Decision Metrics

(TDM) model. The geographies of Europe are defined as:

Northern Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland,

Norway, Sweden, UK

Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany,

Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland

Southern/Mediterranean Europe: Albania, Bosnia-

Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy,

Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey

Central/Eastern Europe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria,

Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,

Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation,

Slovakia, Ukraine

Level* ShareAnnual

average

Cumulative

growth**

Share

2020

Cumulative

growth**

Share

2010

Total outbound travel (000s) 95,788 - 4.1% 22.2% - 26.1% -

of which:

Long haul (000s) 58,750 61.3% 5.0% 27.7% 64.1% 28.6% 60.1%

Short haul (000s) 37,039 38.7% 2.6% 13.4% 35.9% 22.3% 39.9%

Travel to Europe***

Europe (000s) 25,560 26.7% 4.5% 24.8% 27.3% 31.8% 25.5%

Northern Europe (000s) 5,887 6.1% 6.0% 34.1% 6.7% 29.2% 6.0%

Western Europe (000s) 9,573 10.0% 3.5% 18.8% 9.7% 27.4% 9.9%

Southern Europe (000s) 6,569 6.9% 3.8% 20.5% 6.8% 34.5% 6.4%

Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 3,531 3.7% 5.9% 33.5% 4.0% 44.6% 3.2%

US Market Share Summary

2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)

* Levels are in 000s unless otherwise specified

*** Shares are expressed as a % of total outbound travel

** Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern Europe

Southern Europe

Western Europe

Northern Europe

Million

*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America

Source: Tourism Economics

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%20%

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 8

2 0 1 9

2 0 2 0

Europe's share of US marketNorthern Europe

Western Europe

Southern Europe

Central/Eastern Europe

% of long haul* market




20/40



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Canada long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern Europe

Southern Europe

Western Europe

Northern Europe

Million



0%

2%

4%6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 8

2 0 1 9

2 0 2 0

Europe's share of Canadian market Northern EuropeWestern Europe

Southern Europe



*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource: Tourism Economics

Canada




Norway, Sweden, UK









Slovakia, Ukraine

Methodology note:











Level* ShareAnnual

average

Cumulative

growth**

Share

2020

Cumulative

growth**

Share

2010


of which:

Long haul (000s) 11,329 31. 7% 4.7% 26.0% 32.3% 9.2% 33.3%

Short haul (000s) 24,446 68. 3% 4.1% 22.4% 67.7% 17.7% 66.7%

Travel to Europe***

Europe (000s) 4,301 12.0% 2.5% 13.1% 11.0% 9.1% 12.7%

Northern Europe (000s) 986 2.8% 5.6% 31.5% 2.9% 12.9% 2.8%

Western Europe (000s) 1,547 4.3% 1.4% 7.0% 3.7% -3.5% 5.1%

Southern Europe (000s) 1,581 4.4% 1.1% 5.4% 3.8% 30.6% 3.9%

Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 187 0.5% 5.6% 31.6% 0.6% -27.0% 0.8%


2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)

Canada Market Share Summary

* Levels are in 000s unless otherwise specified** Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated


21/40



Mexico




Norway, Sweden, UK









Slovakia, Ukraine

Methodology note:











Level* ShareAnnual

average

Cumulative

growth**

Share

2020

Cumulative

growth**

Share

2010


of which:

Long haul (000s) 2,393 11.8% 4.6% 25.1% 11.4% 44.6% 10.8%

Short haul (000s) 17,873 88.2% 5.5% 30.7% 88.6% 31.5% 89.2%

Travel to Europe***

Europe (000s) 1,254 6.2% 2.6% 13.9% 5.4% 46.8% 5.6%

Northern Europe (000s) 99 0.5% 4.4% 24.3% 0.5% 48.5% 0.4%

Western Europe (000s) 577 2.8% 3.3% 17.9% 2.6% 36.4% 2.8%

Southern Europe (000s) 445 2.2% 0.7% 3.6% 1.8% 57.9% 1.8%

Central/Eastern Europe (000s) 132 0.7% 4.3% 23.3% 0.6% 61.2% 0.5%


** Shows cumulative change over the relevant time period indicated* Levels are in 000s unless otherwise specified

Mexico Market Share Summary

2015 Growth (2015-20) Growth (2010-15)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mexico long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long HaulCentral/Eastern Europe

Southern Europe

Western Europe

Northern Europe

Million



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 5

2 0 1 6

2 0 1 7

2 0 1 8

2 0 1 9

2 0 2 0

Europe's share of Mexican marketNorthern Europe

Western Europe

Southern Europe



*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North AmericaSource: Tourism Economics


22/40



Argentina




Norway, Sweden, UK







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