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Energy Reform in ASEAN: Balancing Political, Economic, and Scientific Objectives1
Palapan Kampan
Abstract: This article focuses on the past, present, and future of environments in the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the region moves toward the 2015
launch of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Policies and data are compared between
the ten nations in the group and with others such as the USA, Australia, and EU members.
Opportunities to promote and support expansion of renewable energies are explored
alongside factors constraining green growth initiatives. Climate science and statistical
analyses are used to bolster recommendations in favor of implementation of new
environmental legislation such as a regional cap-and-trade mechanism and carbon tax. A
holistic approach to environmental protectionism is proposed in consideration of conflicting
economic and scientific interests, which have resulted in poor enforcement of existing
regulations.
Keywords: Renewable energy, sustainability, climate change
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This version contains meta-analysis and supplementary material to article entitled Energy Reform in
ASEAN: Balancing Political, Economic, and Scientific Objectives, published in International Journal of Emerging Electric Power Systems (Kampan and Tanielian, 2015), DOI: 10.1515/ijeeps-2014-0190
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Contents Page
Part 1: Overview of Climate Change
1.1 Introduction 1
1.1.1 Research Methods 2
1.1.2 Limitations and Areas of Concerns 3
1.2 Climate Change 3
1.2.1 Politics of Climate Change Denial 4
1.3 Economic Growth and CO2 6
1.3.1 Production and Consumption of Electricity 9
1.3.2 Coal: Black Plague of the New Millennium 12
1.3.3 High Income Countries Invest More in Renewable Energies 12
Part 2: AEC Environment 14
2.1 Environmental Threat Assessment 15
2.1.1 Deforestation a Leading Cause of CO2 Emissions in ASEAN 16
2.1.2 Slash and Burn Farming 18
2.1.3 Agriculture 20
2.2 Nuclear Power: Maybe, Maybe Not 34
2.2.1 Nuclear Safety 38
2.2.2 Location, Location, Location 40
2.2.3 Managing Spent Fuel 42
Part 3: Politics and Economics of Energy 44
3.1 ASEAN Energy 45
3.1.1 ASEAN Energy Independence and Security 46
3.2 Least Developed Countries: Opportunity for Ground-Up Clean Growth 48
3.2.1 Cambodia 48
3.2.2 Laos 51
3.2.3 Myanmar 52
3.3 Middle-Income Countries: Quality Development 53
3.3.1 Thailand 54
3.3.2 Vietnam 57
3.3.3 Philippines 59
3.3.4 Indonesia 60
3.4 Advanced Economies: Innovation and Investment 62
3.4.1 Singapore 62
3.4.2 Brunei 64
3.4.3 Malaysia 65
Part 4: Discussion 68
4.1 Political and Legal Agendas 68
4.2 Subsidize Research and Investment 70
4.3 Dams Threaten Human Rights 71
4.4 Developing a Holistic Approach 72
4.5 Individual Contributions 75
4.6 Carbon Tax and Trade Options 76
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Contents (continued) Page
4.7 ASEAN Sun and Wind 78
Part 5: Conclusions and Recommendations 81
5.1 Government Assistance of CO2 Management 81
5.2 ASEAN Toothless? 82
5.3 Recommendations 83
5.4 Closing 84
References 85
List of Figures Page
1: Correlation between GDP and CO2 Growth in ASEAN 2000 2010 7
2: Correlation between GDP and CO2 Growth by Region and Income 2000-10 8
3: Average Annual GDP Growth Rate 2004 2012 9
4: Percent of Electricity Generated with Coal in Selected Nations 2013 12
5: ASEAN Economics at a Glance 14
6: ASEAN Land at or around Sea Level 15
7: CO2 Emissions in ASEAN 2010 - 2012 (kt) 16
8: ASEAN Deforestation 2000 - 2011 (of 127,630 total km2) 17
9: CO2 Emissions by Source in ASEAN States (most recent) 18
10: Brunei Labor Force Distribution 2008 21
11: Brunei Agricultural Emissions 21
12: Cambodia Labor Force Distribution 2012 22
13: Cambodia Agricultural Emissions 23
14: Indonesia Labor Force Distribution 2012 23
15: Indonesia Agricultural Emissions 24
16: Indonesia Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012 25
17: Laos Labor Force Distribution 2012 25
18: Malaysia Labor Force Distribution 2012 26
19: Malaysia Agricultural Emissions 26
20: Myanmar Labor Force Distribution 2000 27
21: Myanmar Agricultural Emissions 28
22: Philippines Labor Force Distribution 2012 29
23: Philippines Agricultural Emissions 29
24: Philippines Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012 30
25: Singapore Labor Force Distribution 2009 30
26: Singapore Agricultural Emissions 31
27: Thailand Labor Force Distribution 2012 32
28: Thailand Agricultural Emissions 32
29: Thailand Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012 33
30: Vietnam Labor Force Distribution 2012 33
31: Vietnam Agricultural Emissions 34
32: 2011 Electricity Production by Source in ASEAN 2011 35
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Figures (continued) Page
33: Electricity Production by Source in Selected non-ASEAN Countries 2011 37
34: ASEAN Natural Gas Production and Consumption Increases 2003-12 38
35: Growing Coal Shortfalls 2003 - 2012 (thousand short tons) 38
36: ASEAN Energy Balance of Trade 2013-14, Million Tonne Oil Equivalent (Mtoe) 47
37: Cambodia Carbon Dioxide Emissions 49
38: Cambodia Electric Power Surplus/Deficit 2000-2011 (kWh) 49
39: Cambodia Electricity Production by Source 2011 50
40: Cambodia % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 51
41: Laos Carbon Dioxide Emissions 51
42: Myanmar Carbon Dioxide Emissions 52
43: Myanmar Electricity Production by Source 2011 53
44: Myanmar % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 53
45: Thailand Carbon Dioxide Emissions 54
46: Thailand Electricity Production by Source 2011 55
47: Thailand % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 56
48: Thailand Coal and Non-Hydro Renewable Generation 2000-2011 (kWh) 56
49: Vietnam Carbon Dioxide Emissions 57
50: Vietnam Electricity Production by Source 2011 58
51: Vietnam % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 58
52: Philippines Carbon Dioxide Emissions 59
53: Philippines Electricity Production by Source 2011 59
54: Philippines % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 60
55: Indonesia Carbon Dioxide Emissions 60
56: Indonesia Electricity Production by Source 2011 61
57: Indonesia % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 61
58: Indonesia Coal Power Production 2000-2011 (kWh) 62
59: Singapore Carbon Dioxide Emissions 63
60: Singapore Electricity Production by Source 2011 63
61: Brunei Carbon Dioxide Emissions 64
62: Brunei Electricity Production by Source 2011 65
63: Malaysia Carbon Dioxide Emissions 65
64: Malaysia Electricity Production by Source 2011 66
65: Malaysia % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 66
66: Malaysia Coal Power Production 2000-2011 (kWh) 67
67: Percent of Population Age 25 and Older with Secondary Education 73
68: ASEAN Non-Hydro Renewable Energy Production Trend 2000-2011 79
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Part 1: Overview of Climate Change
1.1 Introduction
Environmental sciences best help us to understand events that are occurring or have
already occurred. Historical data can be used to extrapolate predictive models for the future,
but the reliability of any such projections is unknown until a future time. Notwithstanding
inherent deficiencies of forecasting methods, given sufficient data, scientists can maximize
reliability of inferences by applying a corollary of Newtons first law lacking significant
system and/or variable changes, trends are likely to continue on the same path. Climate
science has been scrutinized more than other disciplines, with sizeable populations
considering the science untrustworthy to the extent that the findings of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been called a conspiracy (USEPA, 2010).
Scientists in multiple fields, sovereign States, and intergovernmental organizations
alike support the idea that climate change is occurring, and that human activity is accelerating
the change. NASAs Earth Observatory defined global warming as the unusually rapid
increase in Earths average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the
greenhouse gases [GHGs] released as people burn fossil fuels (Riebeek, 2010). Despite the
logic of reason, skeptics cite natural cycles rather than human activity as underlying causes
of climate change (Pipher, 2013).
Global warming is a threat and risk to every person in every country on earth. Root
causes are known. Governments and organizations have begun to explore means of
mitigating potential harms associated with macro-environmental changes. Among proposed
responses are strategic reduction of CO2 emissions from sources like power plants, factories,
and automobiles through implementation of higher regulatory standards, expansion of
renewable energy production, and development of cleaner technologies. If scientific interests
alone shaped the future, our world would likely transform into something of a paradise,
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considering the potential of existing and feasible technology. However, political and
economic paradigms seriously constrain innovation and deployment of new technologies. If
the world is to continue developing, improving, and thriving economically in spite of
continued climate change, interests and demands of multiple domains must be balanced.
This article focuses on the past, present, and future of environments in the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the region moves toward the 2015 launch of the
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). A fundamental objective of this research is to support
sustainable development in the region. Policies and data are compared between the ten
nations in the group and with outside nations such as Canada, the United States, Australia,
Japan, Korea, and China. Opportunities to promote and support expansion of renewable
energies are explored alongside factors constraining green growth initiatives. Climate science
and statistical analyses are used to bolster recommendations in favor of implementation of
new environmental legislation such as cap-and-trade and carbon tax systems. A holistic
approach to environmental protectionism is proposed in consideration of conflicting
economic and scientific interests, which have resulted in poor enforcement of existing
regulations.
1.1.1 Research Methods
This is a mixed-methods study which incorporates qualitative review of literature and
legal statutes with quantitative statistical analysis. Given that the topic includes issues such as
climate change, epistemological arguments were present among secondary sources, some
claiming to confound the view of many of our sources. Specifically, we discovered a small
minority of authors rejected anthropogenic global warming. We approached the subject as
naturalists, and deferred to experts in the field in matters of technical complexity. Where
experts agreed nearly unanimously, such as on the issues of AGW, we found no reason to cite
opposition or give credit to its arguments. We used a legal positivist approach in analysis and
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discussion of legal matters. To the extent that it was apparent that new legislation or
significant alteration of existing law would support greater application and enforcement of lex
lata, we proffered suggestions de lege ferenda. Some statistical data were retrieved from
United Nations, UNESCAP (2014) or World Bank (2014a) and then presented in-text or
formatted in tables. Other data were retrieved in spreadsheet format then translated into Excel
for graphic presentation or SPSS for calculation of Pearson correlations, means, frequencies,
and percentages.
1.1.2 Limitations and Areas of Concerns
This study was limited by the amount and quality of data available to the public on the
instant topics. Data retrieved from electronic databases were generally 2 or more years old,
and although we inferred from prior trends that changes since the latest data entries did not
significantly affect our conclusions, this study was limited by immediacy of which data was
reported and made available. Laos and Myanmar, both least developed countries, failed to
report data on certain issues, which are noted within the text. ASEAN does not have a
uniform system of data collection and reporting standard, and as such some quantities may
vary between sources due to methods of collection and analysis. In order to minimize effects
of inconsistent methodology among sources, we collected data and analysis from dozens of
source types including governmental, intergovernmental, non-profit organizations, academic
and trade publications, private companies, and news media. The diversity and volume of our
reference base mitigated the potential for erroneous conclusions, but we recognize that our
data may vary from those of other sources.
1.2 Climate Change
Cook et al (2013) examined nearly 12,000 peer-reviewed scientific articles, finding
that of articles expressing a position about anthropogenic global warming (AGW), more than
97% endorsed the idea that humans are causing AGW, whereas the number of papers
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rejecting the consensus on AGW [was] a vanishingly small proportion of the published
research. Such overwhelming opinion supporting the theory that climate change is a result of
human activity subjugates popular conservative-American political beliefs that global
warming is either not happening or is strictly a natural phenomenon (Leiserowitz, 2011).
Even the American government endorses AGW and popular estimates of likely temperature
increases of between 2F and 11.5F by 2100 (USEPA, 2014). In addition to temperature
increases, AGW is expected to influence the patterns and amounts of precipitation, reduce ice
and snow cover, raise sea level, and increase the acidity of the oceans, thereby impacting
water and food supplies, infrastructure, ecosystems, and personal health (ibid).
1.2.1 Politics of Climate Change Denial
School children around the world learn about climate change and global warming in
their science textbooks. In Thailand, 2008 Basic Education Curriculum Standard SC6.1
integrates climate change topics into science curriculum starting at the Matayom level
(Thailand MOE, 2008). Thai foreign language curriculum is designed to provide grade 6, 9,
and 12 graduates with vocabulary that enables them to communicate about climate with
foreigners. Considering that English is the preferred foreign language in Thailand, these
curriculum standards appear intended to direct students toward engaging students with the
globally-accepted model of AGW as researched and reported by numerous intergovernmental
and international organizations in the English language. Popular English-language science
texts such as the Focus Smart Matayom series (Pelangi, 2015) teach Thai students to
recognize ecological impacts of human activity at a global scale, but understanding global
warming entails more than just science.
Stanford University (2015) model curriculum on the subject states that global
climate change is unequivocal, almost certainly is caused mostly by us, already is causing
significant harm, and is growing rapidly. The statement that climate change is almost
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certainly caused mostly by us alludes to ongoing public debate in the United States
regarding the precise degree to which humans are impacting the natural environment. While
the long-term effects of AGW are largely unknown, and every statistical or theoretical
science has a margin of error, the overwhelming consensus among scientists is that the earth
is warming and that humans are the main cause. There are, however, a small group of
scientists and numerous political advocates who oppose this generally-accepted theory of our
era. Climate change skeptics or deniers exist around the world, but in other Western countries
where speech on the issue is not seriously censored, they are marginalized and not influential
in government. Oddly enough, in the United States the ideology of climate change denial has
become firmly rooted in the conservative psyche and has arguably interfered with legislation
on the issues (Collomb, 2014).
Dunlap and McCright (2008) found a widening gap between Republican and
Democratic party views on global warming. In the late-1990s, both the right and left political
affiliations held similarly mixed opinions on the severity of global warming, whether or not it
is caused primarily by humans, its potential threats, and scientists beliefs about it. Over a
decade, Democrats views converged more with scientific consensus while Republic opinions
shifted further away from scientifically-verifiable ideas. Currently, climate change denial is a
phenomenon almost entirely associated with the conservative or Republican party, and
not only a small, marginalized minority segment thereof. An Ipsos MORI (2013) survey of
adults from 21 countries found that Americans were the least convinced that climate change
is a result of human activity, with just over half (54%) believing so. By comparison, over
90% of Chinese respondents believed humans are causing climate change.
Not all conservatives disbelieve AGW. Conservative news publications like
Bloomberg recognize its factual nature and play a part in exposing the underlying causes of
mass skepticism (Bagley, 2013). Corporate interests have been blamed for legislative delay
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and public misinformation. Brulle (2013) found dark money has been funding of the
climate change counter-movement, where major energy organizations like Exxon and Koch
Enterprises concealed $558 million in donations deliberately intended to stall progress and
confuse laypeople. Other authors such as Wei-Hock Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center
for Astrophysics have accepted millions from fossil fuel industry donors prior to engaging in
unethical argument against AGW. Gillis and Schwartz (2015) of the New York Times
compared the counter movement to efforts of tobacco corporations in the 1960s to block
legislation that harms their sales by casting an illusion of scientific discrepancy.
Considering the expansive presence of American corporations around the world, it is
doubtful that other countries have not been affected by lobbying or corrupt payments
intended to stall legislation and keep the public in the dark about AGW. American views and
politics are largely constrained to within its own national borders, but in an era of globalized
trade and natural resource development, we can infer that the worlds largest economy has
influence outside of its jurisdiction. Obviously there are economic arguments against
regulation and scientific inquiry, but research has suggested that such arguments as those the
Koch brothers and petroleum companies proffer are driven by short-term profitability
concerns rather than a quest for long-term sustainability. Despite the conspicuous nature of
their ruse, primarily Republican States like Florida and North Carolina have bought into the
bad-science of climate change denial insomuch that the term climate change has been
banned and discontinued in official government business (Korten, 2015; Williams, 2015).
The situation in the United States may be exaggerated by political posturing, but climate
change denial, ignorance, and apathy probably poses threats to every country on earth.
1.3 Economic Growth and CO2
Enormous amounts of energy are required for economies to flourish. It is no secret
that wars have been and will probably continue to be fought over natural resources, especially
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the hydrocarbons which move people and goods around the globe. In northern latitudes,
natural gas and coal are essential to heat homes and offices while in the south the same fossil
fuels are needed for cooling. Without these vital substances, hundreds of millions of people
would die, and to say the least, our world would be less comfortable.
Whether for transportation, heating, or electricity, consumption of fossil fuels releases
carbon into the atmosphere. Greater conventional energy consumption leads directly to higher
levels of carbon emissions. In order to quantify what seems implicit that economic
development results in higher levels of carbon in the air we used SPSS to calculate Pearson
product-moment correlations. Our analysis of recent data showed near perfect correlations
between growth in CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP), with limited
exceptions.
Figure 1: Correlation between GDP and CO2 Growth in ASEAN 2000 2010
At the world and East Asian regional levels,
we found the same trend that is seen at the national
level in eight of ten ASEAN member States
statistically significant high correlations between the
two variables. However, we found something
interesting at high national income levels the trend
was either absent or it reversed.
From the data, we deduce that countries in
the high income group have sufficient capital and technological infrastructure to invest in
cleaner energies. Singapore reduced CO2 emissions by transitioning from oil-fired to natural
gas power generation, resulting in a negative correlation between GDP and emissions. While
no statistically significant correlations were found in OECD and high income groups as a
whole, we found individual nations decreased CO2 intensity in the electric power sector by
r= p=
BRN 0.713 0.014
KHM 0.997 0.000
IDN 0.940 0.000
LAO 0.907 0.000
MYS 0.960 0.000
PHL 0.573 0.065
SGP -0.875 0.000
THA 0.896 0.000
VNM 0.981 0.000
Source: Author; UNESCAP
(2014); World Bank (2014a)
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shifting to renewable energies and away from fossil fuels. Two major exceptions were
Australia and the United States of America, where about 90% and 69% of electricity came
from oil, gas, and coal in the year 2012, respectively.
Figure 2: Correlation between GDP and CO2 Growth by Region and Income 2000
2010
Here we found a serious conflict between
economic and scientific interests in that both
sustained GDP growth and reduction in emissions
are simultaneous objectives. Likewise concerning
is the fact that political entities have hitherto been
unable to reconcile these competing agendas to
achieve mutual satisfaction.
ASEAN economic growth rates have been
phenomenal in recent years. Overall, ASEANs aggregate economies nearly tripled between
2004 and 2012 (World Bank, 2014a). Given ASEANs relatively low income status
compared to groups like OECD or EU, we can infer that a great deal of that growth came
from infrastructure, financial, and service sectors. Consumer inflation, which averaged nearly
600% over the same nine years in the region, may have contributed to reported growth
depending on GDP calculation methodology.
Despite these high annual growth rates, ASEAN CO2 emissions between 2004 and
2010 grew only 25%, which may seem like good news, but the highest-intensity growth
period has yet to come as ASEAN moves out of low/middle into middle/high income. Low
relative CO2 growth in comparison to economic growth between 04 and 10 was also
affected by Singapore and Myanmar, which reduced carbon emissions by 53% and 28%,
respectively. Myanmars use of hydroelectric power and Singapores transition to natural gas
r= p=
World 0.986 0.000
East Asia 0.955 0.000
OECD 0.042 0.902
LDC 0.963 0.000
Low 0.941 0.000
Low/Mid 0.982 0.000
Middle 0.969 0.000
Upper Mid 0.960 0.000
High 0.389 0.237
Source: Author; UNESCAP
(2014); World Bank (2014a)
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from coal power facilitated these reductions. Singapore may be able to sustain low-carbon
intensity considering its high income status and ability to invest in cleaner energies, but
Myanmars carbon emissions will likely rise beyond 2004 levels as it develops after opening
its markets and re-establishing ties with Western nations.
Figure 3: Average Annual GDP Growth Rate 2004 2012
1.3.1 Production and Consumption of Electricity
Post-industrial revolution economies need electricity to
power factories, which are staffed by robots and programmable
logic controllers, dead without power. There are many options
for electricity production, but new developments like algae and
biomass have yet to produce the type of energy return on
invested (EROI) ratio to sustain modern society. Nuclear power has the highest EROI, but it
is mired by controversy and potential contamination dangers. Hydropower produces the
second highest EROI but dams force people away from their homes and drastically alter the
natural environment. Solar and wind are efficient enough to sustain consumption, but they
experience intermittency problems considering that it is not always sunny or windy, and
storage efficiencies are too low to make them a viable base load option. Generally, power
grids are supplied by the third and fourth most efficient processes coal and gas (Conca,
2015).
Load over any grid varies at different times of day. In order to supply the changing
demand, generation is broken down into base load, intermediate, and peak segments. Base
load power is generated by plants that have low operating costs and consistent fuel. Capacity
factor, or the percent of time the plants operate at full output, also influences what part of the
load cycle plants will serve. Nuclear plants usually have a capacity factor of around 90%,
BRN 12.82%
KHM 18.11%
IDN 26.87%
LAO 33.11%
MYS 16.06%
PHL 19.31%
SGP 16.15%
THA 14.09%
VNM 23.92%
Source: Author;
World Bank (2014a)
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compared to 44% for hydro, 20-40% for wind, and 5-19% for solar (Frank, 2014), making
nuclear a perfect base load source alongside coal and geothermal. Combined cycle gas plants
can ramp up and turn down production quickly, making them staple intermediate sources, but
higher operating costs have kept gas from seriously competing with coal as a base load
source (Kaplan, 2008), although gas production is growing as we try to cut emissions. Wind
and solar are subject to intermittent shutdowns caused by weather; that plus the high capital
costs make them a good peak demand source, but nothing more consistent as of yet.
World electricity generation increased by about 86% between 1990 and 2011, when it
sat at 21 petawatt hours (EIA, 2014). Production is set to increase to 39 petawatt hours by
2040 (EIA, 2013). IAEA (2011) forecasted 44-99% growth in nuclear power generating
capacity between 2010 and 2035, making it the second fastest-growing source behind
renewable energies (EIA, 2013). As of 2014, only about 11% of the worlds electricity comes
from nuclear power. Five countries USA, France, Russia, South Korea, and China
generate 68% of the roughly 2.4 gigawatt hours produced among all reactors worldwide
(Schneider and Froggatt, 2014). Thirteen countries relied upon nuclear to generate at least
25% of their total electricity, but nuclear power has not yet been deployed globally. Only 30
countries are home to the 435 total functional reactors worldwide (NEI, 2014).
Nuclear power generation declined significantly following Fukushima, both in net
terawatt hours and share of electricity production (Schneider and Froggatt, 2014). Germany
closed all reactors that began in 1980 or earlier and vowed to close all other reactors by 2022
(European Commission, 2014). In Switzerland, 40% of power comes from nuclear, and
despite a public vote in favor of keeping it, the government decided to phase out reactors by
2034 (World Nuclear Association, 2014a). The EU as a whole set a goal to supply 27% of its
energy with renewables by 2030 (European Commission, 2014a), but renewables cannot
replace other power sources per se. If nuclear power generation is decreased, it is nearly
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certain that a fossil fuel source will replace it, which makes it more difficult to achieve
aggressive targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
Renewable technologies are relatively new compared to other sources, giving them a
natural advantage in growth markets. Opportunity cost may also influence investment in
renewables in the early 21st century. Given the unpredictable future of rare earth mineral
prices, and their integral role in wind turbines, investors may have bought into renewables
with future prices in mind. A diverse energy mix is desirable, and in the longer-term nuclear
power is not likely threatened by expansive use of renewables because renewables are not
suitable for base load power generation. High capital costs and capacity factors constrain
solar, wind, and geothermal to supplemental producers.
Nil fuel costs are the main financial benefits of wind, hydroelectric, and solar power.
However, plant construction capital costs of these clean energies often exceed those for
natural gas and coal plants. Nuclear power plants are frequently less expensive to build than
some geothermal, biomass, and offshore wind production facilities. Overall profitability
analyses tend to favor combustion turbine or combined cycle natural gas plants, which run
about 12-19% as costly as nuclear plants, roughly half the cost of onshore wind, and one-
quarter that of solar photovoltaic (EIA, 2013a). Hence, the greatest opportunities for utility
service providers in the immediate future lie primarily in the gas sector considering
government emissions regulations favor gas over coal, though there is considerable room for
concurrent expansion of renewable sources. The future may not be as simple. Government
incentives, air emissions controls, and fuel costs could threaten fossil fuel production
considerably, leaving nuclear power as the only remaining economically feasible source for
base load power barring near-miraculous advances in battery storage technologies.
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1.3.2 Coal: Black Plague of the New Millennium
Coal-fired power plants and diesel engines are main producers of particulate matter
(PM) found in the air like dust, dirt, soot, smoke, and liquid droplets. The World Health
Organization (2014) estimated 7 million annual deaths worldwide are attributable to air
pollution. Exposure to air pollution has also been associated with stunted lung growth
(Gauderman et al, 2004).
Figure 4: Percent of Electricity Generated with Coal in Selected Nations 2013
Climate change is
associated with regional
decreases in precipitation,
resulting in sustained increases in
PM and decreased air quality
(Daniel and Winner, 2009) and
thus greater health risk.
Air pollution may be little
more than a nuisance in the rural landscape, but in major cities, it is becoming more of a daily
threat to health and wellbeing. Perhaps nowhere on earth are the harmful impacts of PM more
noticeable than in China, where only 3 of 74 cities achieved national air quality standards in
2013 (Xin, 2014). Yet, while the dangers of coal are becoming more well-known and
publicized, finding a suitable replacement is a nearly impossible task, considering that coal is
used in 70% of global steel production and 41% of electricity production (World Coal
Association, 2013).
1.3.3 High Income Countries Invest More in Renewable Energies
Between 2000 and 2011, electricity consumption increased 13% in high income
countries. Around 40% of that demand rise was supplied by green power as renewables
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mongolia
South Africa
Poland
PRC
Australia
India
Israel
Indonesia
Germany
USA
UK
Japan
Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World Bank
(2014a)
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capacity increased by about 32%, and rose by about 2.5% as a portion of overall electricity
production over those twelve years. By comparison, in low and middle income countries,
including eight of ten ASEAN members, demand for electricity grew by 123% while
generation capacity from renewables grew only 21%, and renewables as a fraction of all
electricity production fell by more than 3%. Remarkably, the European Union supplied the
entire 9% growth in electricity demand with renewable energies between 2000 and 2011, by
which time renewables made up over 20% of all sources (World Bank, 2014).
We found the rapid increase in demand for electricity witnessed in lower income
countries was supplied by cheaper, easier fossil fuel sources, whereas in high income
countries, technological and financial infrastructure was sufficient to explore more eco-
friendly means of growing capacity. As a result of investment in cleaner technologies, high
income countries were able to stabilize CO2 emissions whereas low and middle income
countries nearly doubled emissions in the first decade or so of the new millennium. Per capita
emissions in the low and middle income group in 2010 were less than three times those in the
high income group, but per capita emissions in the high income group trended downward
whereas they were on the rise in low and middle income countries.
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Part 2: AEC Environment
Southeast Asia is a collection of countries sharing some common ethnic heritage, but
the region is otherwise politically, religiously, and economically diverse.
Figure 5: ASEAN Economics at a Glance
Much of the current economic
situation in ASEAN has roots in the
colonial period, when Singapore first
became an offshore banking center,
paving the way toward its enormous
wealth in comparison with most of the
region. Western powers developed basic
infrastructure through forced labor in
Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Laos, and the
Philippines, but did little to strengthen
those nations under colonial occupation.
Rather, seeds of economic disparity were
sown under colonial systems, wherein
locals were deprived of simple economic
freedoms.Current high levels of poverty and agriculture involvement can be directly traced to
principles of inequity from the 18th
and 19th
centuries (Hong Kong Education Bureau, n.d.).
ASEAN (2014a) is comprised of three pillars or communities Political Security,
Economics, and Sociocultural. Since peace and stability have been achieved within the
region, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) has become the new focus. ASEAN
(2014b) members set out to create a single market and production base through AEC, one that
% Below
Poverty
GDP per
capita
(PPP)
% of Labor
Force in
Agriculture
BRN NA% $54,800
(2013 est.) 4.2%
KHM 20%
(2012 est.)
$2,600
(2013 est.) 55.8%
IDN 11.7%
(2012 est.)
$5,200
(2013 est.) 38.9%
LAO 22%
(2013 est.)
$3,100
(2013 est.) 73.1%
MYS 3.8%
(2009 est.)
$17,500
(2013 est.) 11.1%
MMR 32.7%
(2007 est.)
$1,700
(2013 est.) 70%
PHL 26.5%
(2009 est.)
$4,700
(2013 est.) 32%
SGP NA% $62,400
(2013 est.) 1.3%
THA 13.2%
(2011 est.)
$9,900
(2013 est.) 38.2%
VNM 11.3%
(2012 est.)
$4,000
(2013 est.) 48%
Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World Bank
(2014a)
15
is highly competitive and fully integrated into global economies, so that equitable economic
development may persist in Southeast Asia. Whether or not the AEC shall live up to its
ambitious goals remains unknown, but given the explicit commitments nations have made
toward major economic growth, we feel it necessary to consider environmental threats such
growth implies. In many regards, an environmental impact survey satisfies ASEANs security
mandate, since climate change, decreasing resource bases, and increasing pollution are
expected to create militant conflict (USJFCOM, 2010).
2.1 Environmental Threat Assessment
Figure 6: ASEAN Land at or around Sea Level
Sea level rise, for example, is
potentially devastating to ASEAN,
where total land below 5 meters is
larger than the entire country of Laos.
Displacement of peoples in Vietnam,
Indonesia, and Philippines would be
catastrophic, leading undoubtedly to
national emergency and potential
interstate conflict due to massive influx
of refugees into Cambodia, Malaysia,
Thailand, and Australia. Collectively, ASEAN States have reason to take proactive measures
designed to help mitigate climate change by reducing emissions which are known to
contribute to AGW. While low-lying States can do little more than express concern at the
global level, they can join together to change their habits at the domestic and regional levels.
% of land
below 5m
Total land
(km2)
Land below
5m (km2)
BRN 3.34 5,270 176
KHM 3.84 176,520 6,782
IDN 5.50 1,811,570 99,594
LAO 0.00 230,800 0
MYS 2.99 328,550 9,831
MMR 4.56 653,540 29,802
PHL 6.02 298,170 17,941
SGP 8.06 670 54
THA 4.17 510,890 21,292
VNM 17.50 311,060 54,443
Land below 5m in ASEAN
(km2):
239,915
Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World Bank
(2014a)
16
2.1.1 Deforestation a Leading Cause of CO2 Emissions in ASEAN
Between 2004 and 2010, CO2 emissions rose in eight of ten ASEAN states. While
Singapore and Philippines noticed reductions in CO2 emissions of 28% and 53%,
respectively, the region as a whole increased emissions by 25% over the seven year period
(World Bank, 2014). UNESCAP (2014) reported emissions rose by about 7% between 2010
and 2012, when the four biggest producers of CO2 were Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and
Vietnam. Total CO2 emissions for all ten ASEAN members is roughly the same as that for
Japan alone, less than 25% that of the United States alone, and less than 15% that of China
alone.
Figure 7: CO2 Emissions in ASEAN 2010 - 2012 (kt)
However, growth is likely and despite low relative emissions in recent years,
sustainable development and environmental consciousness are important for ASEAN
members. One area of increasing concern is deforestation, which is the second-leading cause
of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, after fossil fuel combustion (van der Werf et al, 2009).
Between the years 2000 and 2011, net deforestation in ASEAN was nearly 100,000 square
kilometers, an area more than half the size of Cambodia and nearly half as large as Laos.
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2010 2011 2012
Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World Bank (2014a)
VNM
THA
SGP
PHL
MMR
MYS
LAO
IDN
KHM
BRN
17
Figure 8: ASEAN Deforestation 2000 - 2011 (of 127,630 total km2)
Vietnam and Philippines
increased their combined forested
lands in that time by over 28,000
square kilometers while
Singapore neither gained nor lost,
and Thailand and Brunei lost less
than 200 square kilometers of
forest each.
Indonesias severe deforestation problem gained the attention of Hollywoods
Harrison Ford, who became rather upset with the national Forestry Minister on camera about
illegal logging (Horowitz, 2014; AFP, 2013). Ford may have blundered politically by
shouting at the Indonesian Minster, but the science fueling his emotion was clear. Miettinen
and Liew (2011) found alarmingly high deforestation rates throughout the Indonesian
archipelago region. Sumatra lost nearly a quarter of its total forest and more than two-fifths of
peatland. Borneo lost almost an eighth of its forest and nearly a quarter of its peatland.
Malaysia lost more than one-eighth of its forest and close to one-half of its peatland, while
Indonesia lost nearly one-tenth of its forest and one-fifth of its peatland.
The largest single cause of deforestation in the equatorial Southeast Asian region is
expansion of palm oil plantations. Continued development of palm plantations is expected to
release massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere (Carlson et al, 2013), but economic
interests dominate the conversation in the region, considering that Indonesia and Malaysia
together supply about 90% of the worlds palm oil (Valentine, 2012). Rule of law is likely to
increase in peatland and forests throughout the region over time as it has in the Amazon and
BRN
KHM
IDN
LAO
MYS
MMR
THA
Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World
Bank (2014a)
18
Central Africa (Pearce, 2010), but developing world citizens have limited sources of income,
and hence exploitation of natural resources remains important for nations, at least through
efficiency-economy stages of development (Schwab, 2013). Deforestation itself is certainly
not irrelevant in the context of conversation about environmental protection, but perhaps the
focus should be shifted toward changing methods of clearing peatlands and forests, rather
than pursuing unrealistic goals of reducing forestry losses in the short and medium terms.
Figure 9: CO2 Emissions by Source in ASEAN States (most recent)
2.1.2 Slash and Burn Farming
Indonesia has been labeled the worlds third largest emitter of GHGs
(Knowledge@Wharton, 2012), but while much criticism has been of deforestation in general,
the precise problem seems to be fires. Slash-and-burn methods, although outlawed in
Indonesia, are the preferred way to clear forests and peatlands for palm plantations (BBC,
2013). Fires easily become uncontrollable, threatening wildlife species while degrading both
air and soil quality (Yadav, 2012). Smokey haze from Indonesias illegal fires circulates to
surrounding countries, giving Singapore and Malaysia reason to address the issue as one of
international concern. But, threats that current fires pose to ecosystems and the likelihood of
increased fire risk in a dryer, warmer future (Leahy, 2012) are largely ignored by officials as
corruption plagues the enforcement landscape in Indonesia (Deen, 2013). Corruption is a
sensitive issue entrenched in leadership. Need for comprehensive enforcement grows larger,
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00 BRN
KHM
IDN
MYS
MMR PHL
SGP
THA
VNM
Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World Bank (2014a)
Buildings (% of total)
Electricity and heat production
(% of total) Manufacturing and construction
(% of total) Transport (% of total)
19
but until the corruption problem is solved, Indonesian State action will probably amount to
little more than a placing a lotus leaf over the dead elephant in the room.
Slash-and-burn farming in northern Thailand is equally as great a problem as smoke
gets trapped in mountain valleys of Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, threatening tourism and
local health (Thai MNRE, 2013). In only a few short decades, entrepreneurial corn farmers
have claimed some 4 million acres of hillside commons land (Saengpassa 2015). Every year,
without a deed or de jure rights to make commercial use of public land, these farmers clear
brush and ground cover with fire and plant corn that is typically sold for animal feed or
ethanol. After harvest, the dried corn stalks are once again set ablaze, creating a smoggy
season that locals say did not exist 30-40 years ago (Thammaraks 2015). But the solution is
elusive, considering that most rural citizens live in poverty with no apparent alternative
opportunity through which they can survive and improve their lives.
Some local businesses suffer from the toxic haze that covers the region each year, but
while some call for draconian law enforcement to control the situation, enforcement is not
politically favorable considering the propensity of Thai farmers and locals to unite in protest.
The government cannot collect fines from people who have no cash, and the police cannot
imprison the thousands of offenders who start fires every season. Instead, the government
puts up billboards and uses media to engage the public, hoping they will voluntarily stop,
which is unlikely. In this quandary, a slight utilitarian economic gain is made when
impoverished rural citizens can earn a little extra income, even though government lenience
causes political backlash from tourism and airline industries, and the smoke poses significant
environmental and health threats. Due to the extremity of competing interests in Northern
Thailand, there is no foreseeable end to the burning season.
The 2007 ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution was supposed to
change this disturbing trend. The agreement calls on members to take steps toward
20
cooperating on mitigation, but falls short of obligating states to impose criminal sanctions on
responsible parties. Despite the name which suggests the treaty is intended to reduce and
ultimately eliminate the hazy burden that blankets the region from year to year, the spirit of
the agreement makes it appear that communication is the underlying goal. Such ambiguous
soft law frequently appears in ASEAN agreements, and does not provide any real remedy.
Like other ASEAN agreements it has remained more of an ideological reminder of
what should occur rather than a binding legal instrument that can make change happen. While
intergovernmental personnel continue to brainstorm on forest fire problems, ASEAN
members should also seek to offset those impacts in other areas such as power generation and
transport. Minimum standards for auto emissions and expanded public transportation
networks can mitigate transport emissions whereas stabilizing emissions from electricity
production may be more challenging.
2.1.3 Agriculture
Farming, forestry, fisheries, and livestock are notorious sources of greenhouse gases.
An estimated third of the worlds GHG emissions come from this sector (Gilbert, 2012).
Agriculture emissions doubled in the past 50 years and are expected to rise another 30% by
2050 (FAO/Hayduk, 2014). Asian countries like the majority of ASEAN members have high
participation in agriculture, contributing significantly to global GHG emissions. If ASEAN
members intend to reduce emissions and set a course for green development, agriculture is in
need of attention throughout the region.
Currently, ASEAN members appear to be in early stages of any real change.
Investigation, research, communication, and analysis are occurring in the region, but much of
the discussion is limited to descriptive accounts. Political conditions are such that singling out
a particular state leads to snafu and complex posturing within the group. With some luck and
planning, some of these issues can be resolved in early AEC operations.
21
2.1.3(a) Brunei
Brunei is one of the minority members in AEC that has low involvement in
agriculture. Bruneis small land base and natural resource economy led to development of
industry as the main employer-sector. Even though Brunei itself has little agricultural
activity, as a low-lying country it is still threatened by upward GHG trends.
Figure 10: Brunei Labor Force Distribution 2008
Figure 11: Brunei Agricultural Emissions
World Bank (2014a) defined agricultural nitrous oxide emissions as emissions
produced through fertilizer use (synthetic and animal manure), animal waste management,
Source: Author; CIA (2015)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
0 20 40 60 80 100
2000
2005
2010
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent)
22
agricultural waste burning (nonenergy, on-site), and savannah burning. Bruneis forestry
management, although neighboring Indonesian Borneo, is more active and as such we find
little reason to suspect wildfire is the prime cause of growth in nitrous oxide emissions;
rather, fertilizers and animal waste management are likely the causes of Bruneis increased
emissions. Brunei should continue to research and develop different methods of farming,
especially with livestock, with the intention of leveling-off nitrous oxide emissions, but its
volume is negligible compared to other countries around the region. As such, Brunei would
benefit most by engaging in political discussion on the issue and attempting to partner with
neighboring Malaysia and Indonesia to control and reduce their emissions.
2.1.3(b) Cambodia
Cambodias high agriculture involvement and relatively low labor participation in
industry are indicative of its status as an LDC. With time, agriculture participation will likely
decrease, but GHG intensity of the sector will probably continue to increase due to more
advanced and profitable farming methods.
Figure 12: Cambodia Labor Force Distribution 2012
Cambodias agricultural emissions grew significantly between 2000 and 2010 despite
a decrease in agriculture work from 73.7% to 51% of the entire labor force. Concurrent
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
23
growth in methane and nitrous oxide levels imply increased cattle farming coupled with
waste management techniques that do not take into consideration GHGs. A ubiquitous sight
throughout the Mekong subregion is a rural road with cow dung dotting the path. Local land
management bureaus should start to consider reducing free-grazing rights in hopes that
farmers may manage animal waste more carefully if they could not walk away from it.
Figure 13: Cambodia Agricultural Emissions
2.1.3(c) Indonesia
Figure 14: Indonesia Labor Force Distribution 2012
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
2000
2005
2010
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent)
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
24
Indonesias large population means that even modest participation in agriculture will
lead to large volumes of GHG emissions. Considering the well-known forest fire problem
ongoing, we suspect that illegal palm plantation burning may not be included in reported
emissions estimates. Fire prevalence has steadily increased in the past decade, meaning that it
runs counterintuitive that 2010 levels would have dropped following 2005 measurements.
Figure 15: Indonesia Agricultural Emissions
Once again, statistical methodology is unknown regarding the data presented. Is
Indonesia including illegal operations in its calculation of agriculture participation? If not,
then the data gives little indication of actual conditions. Given that Indonesia is the single-
largest emitter in the region, its people and government need to pay special attention to how
forests and farms are managed. Instead of leaving for the next generation the problems of
climate change, Indonesias leaders are in dire need of reform and scientific advisement not
adulterated by local or international economic interests. ASEAN as a whole should likewise
assume some responsibility for informing the public and providing evidence-based policy
advice regarding management of Indonesian agriculture.
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
2000
2005
2010
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent)
25
Figure 16: Indonesia Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012
2.1.3(d) Laos
Laos fails to report consistently or entirely on multiple fronts, which make analysis of
the national condition problematic. A visit to the landlocked nation is sufficient to infer that
agriculture is the livelihood of the vast majority of Laotian people. Like Cambodia and
Myanmar, as GDP per capita increases, so will fertilizer use and cattle farming which
increase GHG emissions. Details on emissions, unfortunately, are not available at this stage
in Laotian development. Consistent, uniform reporting should thus be a top priority for Laos.
Figure 17: Laos Labor Force Distribution 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source Author; World Bank (2014a)
Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)
Source: Author; CIA (2015)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
26
2.1.3(e) Malaysia
The Malaysian economy rose out of the middle income group through development of
its robust service sector. Malaysia is now a global competitor in white collar industries like
finance, marketing, engineering, and education. At the same time, it has a solid industrial
presence, with its state oil company as the flagship for the industry in the region.
Figure 18: Malaysia Labor Force Distribution 2012
Figure 19: Malaysia Agricultural Emissions
Agriculture participation is low, but growth in emissions shows the same increased
fertilizer use and cattle farming without effective waste management as seen throughout the
Source: Author, World Bank (2014a)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
2000
2005
2010
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent)
27
region. Malaysias colonial history paved way for an expansive system of statutes, similar to
English or American models. If Malaysia can take the next step and define itself uniquely as
the ASEAN member that managed utilize that legislative system to aggressively control
emissions, it would stand out as a world leader, and more importantly as a pioneer in
ASEAN.
2.1.3(f) Myanmar
Myanmars turbulent contemporary political history led the nation into isolationism
for decades during which it participated little in United Nations project. Myanmars
adversarial tone recently eased, and we see gradual reform in political and economic arenas.
Like the Laotian case, a visit to Myanmar is evidence enough that the population subsists
primarily on agriculture, but precisely how much in recent years is unclear due to Myanmars
laggard status when it comes to communication and transparent reporting.
Since Myanmar only recently opened to foreign investment, we can expect dramatic
growth by 2030, meaning increased earnings for farmers, who will shift to more modern
methods including usage of gasoline-powered farm equipment and chemical fertilizers.
Figure 20: Myanmar Labor Force Distribution 2000
Source: Author; CIA (2015)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
28
Government support for informational programs is essential to Myanmars
development of truly sustainable farm communities. Advances in technology allow for
conversion of methane-producing manure into biofuels should subsidies and loan options
become available for rural stakeholders. Although economic development will likely
reduce agriculture participation by one third or more within 20 years, GHG-intensity of the
sector will only grow. This can be mitigated by government planned and sponsored
educational and outreach activities. Myanmars engagement of its people will shape its near-
term future.
Figure 21: Myanmar Agricultural Emissions
2.1.3(g) Philippines
Philippines is progressive in its service sector participation. Despite low per capita
income levels, Filipinos are generally known as educated people. Their comparative
advantage in English will undoubtedly play a role in early AEC growth, and with a bit of luck
and planning, that language advantage will help propel them toward green growth.
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
2000
2005
2010
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent)
29
Figure 22: Philippines Labor Force Distribution 2012
Figure 23: Philippines Agricultural Emissions
Agriculture participation decreased consistently in the early 21st century, resulting in
only minimal growth of GHGs which were caused by the sectors increasing intensity. Like
Malaysia, the Philippines has in place a post-colonial legislative system that enacts timely
and thorough statutes. The countrys future depends on the government reducing corruption
and more effectively implementing and enforcing its relatively well-designed laws. Policy on
agriculture management, especially animal waste management, certainly will not harm the
Philippines or the region that can benefit from fluent English-language communication.
PHL Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
2000
2005
2010
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent)
30
Figure 24: Philippines Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012
2.1.3(h) Singapore
Much like Brunei, Singapore has very low agriculture participation, mainly due to its
small geographical area. The downside of this trend in employment is that Singapores
calories must be imported from countries where agricultural practices may not be efficient.
Since Singapore is dependent upon food from other countries, it can use its unique position as
consumer to motivate producer nations to improve practices.
Figure 25: Singapore Labor Force Distribution 2009
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
31
Singapores post-colonial legal system is the most developed in the region, and its
government is consistently ranked among the least corrupt in the world (Transparency
International, 2015). Good-governance, robust immigration, and a globally competitive
economy perhaps limit Singapores ability to relate to other countries in the region. If
partnerships can be made between scientific and academic institutions that foster expansive
agricultural research, then Singapore should be able to influence other ASEAN members
despite its lack of experience in agriculture.
Figure 26: Singapore Agricultural Emissions
2.1.3(i) Thailand
Thailand is consistently the biggest rice exporter in the world, and known to many as
the worlds kitchen. Thai food is by far the most famous among cuisines in ASEAN. It
should come as no surprise, then, that Thailands agriculture participation rate is quite high.
Liberal commons rights to utilize land without deed or permit facilitate expansive farming in
the Kingdom. As seen in virtually every other nation, GHG intensity is increasing in the
agriculture sector alongside declining labor force participation. Free range cattle farming
undoubtedly leads to waste management problems like in Cambodia. Unfortunately, Thai law
enforcement is weak, and local motivation to change practices is low.
0 10 20 30 40 50
2000
2005
2010
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent)
32
Figure 27: Thailand Labor Force Distribution 2012
Figure 28: Thailand Agricultural Emissions
Military control of the government in Thailand may indeed improve political and
administrative function, which had trended toward blatant corruption over the previous 20
years. However, longer-term economic growth will only minimally impact rural districts
without greater government involvement in agriculture sectors, especially relating to
anticompetitive practices. Low profitability on the farm leads to acts of desperation like
ongoing slash and burn farming in the north, which have calamitous annual effects. Historical
trends suggest that Thai law enforcement will remain lax on burning and commercial
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
2000
2005
2010
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent)
33
agricultural squatting due to local economic interests, so education and outreach programs
remain the most effective means of changing habits. Education is by no means a panacea, but
until further developments occur, it should be a focus of governmental and NGO efforts.
Figure 29: Thailand Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012
2.1.3(j) Vietnam
Although moving steadily toward industrialization, Vietnam is still technically a
communist country, which means its roots are in agriculture. The slow process of moving
into services and manufacturing is ongoing, but GHG intensity in agriculture is rising.
Figure 30: Vietnam Labor Force Distribution 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
% Agriculture
% Industry
% Services
34
Much like other countries around the region, Vietnam experienced increases in
agricultural emissions despite decreasing labor participation in agriculture, from 65.3% of the
labor force in 2000 to 47.4% in 2012 (World Bank, 2014a). If the central politburo could
effectively plan a mitigation strategy, theoretically Vietnam could emerge as a leader in
agricultural methods given its high participation rate and socialized structure. In the short
term, simple waste management could result in a GHG plateau.
Figure 31: Vietnam Agricultural Emissions
2.2 Nuclear Power: Maybe, Maybe Not
Consistent consumption of nonrenewable resources over an infinite time period will
result in reduction and eventual exhaustion of those resources. There are some people who
believe that hydrocarbons are not finite, but rather they are consistently replenished through
natural processes deep within the earth, but this Cornucopian theory is by no means
verifiable (Rhodes, 2008). In most regards, disbelief in peak oil and imminent energy crises
resembles climate change denial. Fossil fuels as we know them are nonrenewable, and thus
they will eventually be unavailable for use.
ASEAN members, like most of the worlds countries, are heavily dependent on fossil
fuels for electricity production. OECD/IEA (2013) forecasted ASEAN electricity generation
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
2000
2005
2010
Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)
Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2
equivalent)
35
capacity to grow by more than two and a half times between 2011 and 2035, from 176GW to
460GW. Coal plants, which account for roughly three-fourths of new thermal capacity units
in the region, are expected to pick up the majority of the new demand. This shift toward coal
in ASEAN is clearly a step backwards environmentally. The share of electricity produced by
renewable is expected to grow to 22% by 2035, but 57% of that will be hydroelectric, which
has serious human rights problems that are discussed later in this report. As concerning is the
prediction that coal-fired efficiencies in the region will less than half of those in Japan, where
higher technology production units are used. If forecasts are accurate, the reasonably well-
balanced energy mix in 2011 is set to become one of the worlds problem spots something
that could be avoided with more investment and stronger government policy.
Figure 32: 2011 Electricity Production by Source in ASEAN 2011
Movement from coal to gas is an important for mitigation of GHG emissions, an
environmental strategy which will only become more necessary in the latter part of the 21st
century. Although there is no present-day need, considering the lifespan of power plants, it is
important to factor in analysis of fuel longevity. In one hundred to one hundred fifty years, it
is likely that only renewable energies and nuclear power will be viable at commercial utility
scales due to depletion of non-renewable natural resources. So, while ASEANs proposed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
BRN KHM IDN MYS MMR PHL SGP THA VNM
Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World Bank (2014a)
Coal Hydroelectric Gas Oil Other Renewable
36
shift toward coal will likely ensure quick, cheap growth, it is not a sustainable plan and it
does signal that ASEAN members are not thinking beyond the short and middle terms.
There is no singular forecast for how many more years of oil, gas, and coal the world
has in supply, but estimates consistently suggest that commercially-available oil will run out
by the year 2100 with gas and coal following by 2150 (World Coal Association, 2015; BP,
2015). By comparison, uranium supplies are expected to last beyond the year 2200 (World
Nuclear Association, 2014). However, ASEAN members have yet to develop nuclear
capacity. Nuclear power has several advantages, but political and security concerns most
likely prevent broad development within ASEAN.
Nuclear plants are among the most expensive facilities to build, but they are also able
to generate more power than other sources. EIA (2013a) found costs for nuclear plants were
less than municipal solid waste, dual flash geothermal, offshore wind, biomass, fuel cell
natural gas, and single unit coal gasification with carbon capture. A dual unit nuclear reactor
project costs about the same as single unit pulverized coal with carbon capture, and pumped
storage hydroelectric generators. Fixed costs for nuclear are higher than all coal, gas, wind,
solar, and hydroelectric sources, but less than combined cycle biomass, municipal solid
waste, and geothermal. Nuclear power weighs-in as the cheapest in terms of variable costs
among gas, coal, biomass, and municipal solid waste. In other words, nuclear fuel is cheaper
than all other fuels. As a result, total operating costs for nuclear are lower than those for fossil
steam, gas turbine, and small scale utilities (EIA, 2013b).
Recent figures show ASEANs energy portfolio is generally less carbon-intensive
than countries like Australia, China, India, Korea, and the United States where the percentage
of power generated by coal exceeds that by natural gas. However, as electricity consumption
grows with overall economic development, ASEANs response is yet unknown. With zero
nuclear capacity in the region, ASEAN will need to develop renewable energy sources in
37
order to prevent massive increases in fossil fuel burning. In the longer term, nuclear power is
potentially the cleanest option for base load production, so long as fuel can be properly
managed and plant safety effectively kept to a global standard. The majority of ASEAN
members have expressed interest in nuclear power, which would be the most efficient means
of supplying increased demand in the growing region, but plant production is not set to
commence until 2020, and that may not actually happen (Bower, 2010; Jessup, 2011).
Figure 33: Electricity Production by Source in Selected non-ASEAN Countries 2011
Increased coal consumption poses economic concerns in at least three ASEAN states
where consumption already exceeds production. Under a free trade zone, Indonesias
growing coals surplus can supply foreign AEC demand, but such is not a long-term solution.
Natural gas is likewise threatened in the region as the rate of increase in consumption
outpaces that of production by nearly two to one. Whether it is with nuclear power,
geothermal, or some yet undiscovered energy source, as non-renewable fossil fuels diminish,
ASEAN members will need to replace that base load supply which cannot be satisfied with
solar or wind.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AUS CAN CHN IND JPN KOR USA
Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World Bank (2014a)
Coal Hydroelectric Gas Oil Other Renewable Nuclear
38
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Source: Author; UNESCAP
(2014); World Bank (2014a)
Production Consumption
-30000
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
Source: Author; UNESCAP
(2014); World Bank (2014a)
MYS PHL THA
Figure 34 (left): ASEAN Natural Gas Production and Consumption Increases 2003-12
Figure 35 (right): Growing Coal Shortfalls 2003 - 2012 (thousand short tons
2.2.1 Nuclear Safety
Safety has been an overriding focus in nuclear power since inception. Despite public
fears surrounding meltdown and disaster, much of which was provoked by the Fukushima
incident, nuclear energy is actually quite safe. Union of Concerned Scientists (2014) found
serious nuclear accidents have been few and far between, citing seven since 1957
Fukushima, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Fermi 1, SL-1, Sodium Reactor Experiment, and
Windscale. Of those seven serious accidents, three were of particular concern Fukushima,
Chernobyl, and Three Mile Island.
Annual fatalities in the mining industry are generally around 170-175 (BLS, 2009;
BLS, 2011). By comparison, nuclear plants experience about 2-4 radiation deaths per year
(World Nuclear Association, 2014b). NASA estimated that nuclear power prevented 1.8
million deaths between 1971 and 2009, hundreds or even thousands of times more than
deaths it caused (Kharecha and Hansen, 2013). Due to its lower mortality and emissions
factors, fuel switching to nuclear power was recommended at NASAs Goddard Institute for
Space Studies. In spite of scientific support, nuclear power faces public opposition due to
perceived safety threats.
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Through December 31, 2012 the 437 total, operating and shut down reactors in the
world had a combine operating experience of just over 15,247 years (IAEA, 2013). Given
that humans have experienced 3 serious nuclear accidents, nuclear power has an incident rate
of 1 per 5,082 reactor years. By comparison, thousands of people die in coal mines every year
(World Nuclear Association, 2014b). Gas power plants are some 8.75 times safer than coal
plants, with gas causing 2.8 deaths and 30 serious illnesses per terawatt hour as compared to
24.5 deaths and 225 serious illnesses attributable to coal electricity generation. That looks
great for gas until we see nuclear power, with 0.052 deaths and 0.22 serious injuries per
terawatt hour, is nearly 54 times safer than gas (Markandya and Wilkinson, 2007). By the
numbers alone, nuclear power should be the preferred power source if safety is a number one
concern.
Quantitative risk assessments most frequently find the broadly acceptable risk of
death for individuals lies between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 1,000,000 per annum (La Guen, 2008;
Law, n.d.). Hunter and Fewtrell (2001) found the maximum tolerable death risk to the public
from any new nuclear station is 1 in 100,000. Accordingly, the United States Nuclear
Regulatory Commission set goals for core damage frequency at 1 in 10,000 reactor years, and
large early release frequency at 1 in 100,000 reactor years (Cochran and McKinzie, 2011).
Newer plants operate with around a 1 in 1 million year core damage frequency, and those
planned to be built have roughly a 1 in 10 million year rating (World Nuclear Association,
2014b).
Hunter and Fewtrell (2001) identified specific fright factors which influenced
people to reduce their tolerance for risk. These factors included:
1. whether the threat is manmade rather than natural;
2. if the threat may cause hidden and irreversible damage that may result in disease
many years later;
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3. if the threat is a particular threat to future generations, pregnant women, or
children;
4. and, whether it causes damage to identifiable, rather than anonymous individuals.
Psychosocial factors seem to make the low risk associated with nuclear power less
tolerable than more prevalent dangers related to fossil fuels. Ironically, people like those in
Germany push for lower carbon and higher safety, but reject nuclear power which supports
both agendas. As decades pass into the future, it seems rather obvious that we cannot achieve
our carbon or safety objectives without nuclear power, but gaining public support is difficult
if not impossible in an era of internet media scares.
2.2.2 Location, Location, Location
Energy policy should be drafted and implemented based upon facts and evidence
rather than the whims and emotions of the general public. Electricity production is not
threatened today, but lacking near-miraculous breakthroughs in technology, people born in
the 21st century are likely to experience fuel shortages, which could lead to utility rate
volatility, brownouts, and serious industrial crises. This is not a gloom and doom prophecy,
but rather a natural economic law in any case where a non-renewable resource is continually
consumed over long periods of time. Unlike climate change, which is likely yet also generally
unknown as for precise details, the future of low and diminishing fossil fuel production is
generally known and endorsed by numerous scientific and governmental agencies cited in
this research. Nuclear power is not a perpetual solution through the 22nd
century, but it gives
us more time to develop new technologies and adjust consumption patterns.
Sensing a relatively similar degree of freedom from seismic activity, the head of the
British Office for Nuclear Regulation (UKONR, 2011) said, The extreme natural events that
preceded the accident at Fukushima - the magnitude 9 earthquake and subsequent huge
tsunami - are not credible in the UK. Locations of fault lines worldwide further suggest that
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there is no credible threat of a Fukushima-like event throughout the majority of worlds
countries including throughout ASEAN. A brief look at seismic activity suggests that middle
Sunda plate geography in Thailand, Malaysian and Indonesian Borneo, Cambodia, and South
Vietnam would be safe, as would northern Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam on the Eurasian
plate. Sumatra and Java islands in Indonesia should probably be avoided along with the
Eastern Philippines, but ASEANs tectonics should not seriously threaten safety.
Without Fukushima, our most recent nuclear disaster would have been Chernobyl
an incident we can infer resulted from inefficiencies and corruption of the Soviet empire in its
final stages. Technological and regulatory improvements virtually guarantee disaster-free
power production throughout the life of reactors. Such facts are why Japan did not abandon
nuclear power after the horrific accident on the Northeast side of Honshu Island. It is implicit
to say that if Fukushima had not happened, there would not have been such a sharp increase
in anti-nuclear thought in the mainstream media and political conversation. Still, little
attention has been paid to the underlying cause of the disaster poor planning.
Japans decision to authorize Fukushima plant construction on the East side of the
island, where severe earthquakes and tsunamis have been documented throughout history,
was an incomprehensible oversight that ultimately endangered the lives of millions of people
for generations to come. Japans entire Eastern border sits nearly on top of a massive fault
system where the Pacific, Eurasian, North American, and Philippine plates meet. This system
poses an especially high threat for tsunamis because they are all convergent plates
(Annenberg Learner, 2014; Damen, n.d.).
If earthquake hazards are our main concern, nuclear power plants may be built
anywhere aside from the Western edge of the Americas, the Mediterranean and Red Sea
region, the Asian Pacific coast, parts of Oceania and Central Asia, or wherever faults lie.
Natural disaster risk alone should not motivate such strong opposition to nuclear power
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within the leadership of developed nations like Germany, where natural disasters pose no
serious threat. A shutdown of a few specific existing plants based on risk of natural disaster
may be rational, but we found no evidence suggesting a total cancellation of an existing and
future nuclear energy program is anything but irrational.
2.2.3 Managing Spent Fuel
Active nuclear power generation facilities have very low incident rates when
compared to other base load power supplies. The evolution of technologies and standards
since the 1990s make nuclear accidents extremely rare. Outside of regions prone to
earthquake, there is virtually no chance of a disaster occurring. Even in seismically-active
areas, reactors and plants are safe, having been designed to handle earthquakes. Managing
nuclear waste then becomes the main health and safety concern.
Radioactive waste is a challenge to work with. It stays very hot for years after
separation. If a storage facility were to experience loss of coolant in the first few years, it
could result in an overheating accident, which has never happened but presents certain risks
(Feiveson et al, 2011). Spent fuel takes about 1,000 years before its radioactivity level is
roughly equal to the original ore (World Nuclear Association, 2014c); it needs to be handled
with extreme caution, deep under the surface of the earth in order to retain its safety rating.
Transport and storage technologies are incredibly trustworthy in the modern age, leaving the
terrorism and malevolent acts the main concern (Feiveson et al, 2011). Military and other
central government support is implicit in nuclear power, leaving still a very low risk of
accident so long as security protocols are properly designed and implemented consistently.
Towards 2030, non-OECD countries, especially in Asia, are expected to grow energy
demand, and as a result build the lions share of new nuclear reactors (IAEA, 2014). State of
the art technologies further the cause of public safety when it comes to new plants in
developing countries like China, where 28 new units are under construction and scheduled to
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be online before 2020 (Scheider and Froggatt, 2014). It is especially important in these lesser-
developed countries that government agencies responsible for overseeing nuclear power have
and enforce globally-accepted regulations.
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Part 3: Politics and Economics of Energy
Economic law pushes the price of any good higher as supply deceases. Electricity
demand is not perfectly inelastic, but considering that it is a necessity, the demand floor is
well above zero regardless of price increases (Borenstein, 2009). As a general rule, the
market price to consumers of an energy source rises when extraction and production costs to
suppliers rise. Production costs in recent years have increased as more energy inputs are
needed to get resources out of the ground. EROI for oil, gas, and coal have fallen over
decades and while spot market prices may not reflect the trend, in the future the increased
costs to manufacturers will undoubtedly be passed on to consumers (Guilford et al, 2011;
Brandt, 2011; Hall, Lambert, and Balogh, 2014).
In 2006, in the United States, publicly-owned utilities generated only 22% of all
power, while investor-owned utilities and independent power producers supplied near equal
shares for the remaining demand (Kaplan, 2008). Privatization and liberalization of electricity
utilities, as seen in the United States and Europe (Heddenhausen, 2007) will only increase the
focus on profitability, which will change alongside construction and fuel costs in the middle
of the 21st century. Plant costs change from country to country depending on costs of labor,
which is certainly cheaper in Southeast Asia than in Western Europe or North America. Since
the majority of new demand for electricity through the 21st century will come from the
developing world, where labor costs are lower, multiple power sources remain financially
feasible options in global markets. Costs to consumers in ASEAN will probably be most
seriously affected by fuel costs, which are sure to rise toward mid-century, thus making
renewable sources more competitive.
Public transportation in the form of electric trains and subways has started to take off
in the regions metropolitan areas, and a high-speed rail between Kunming, China and
Singapore is planned (Perlez, 2014), but like the remainder of the world, petroleum sustains
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nearly the entirety of ASEANs transportation network. Although current emissions from
automobiles is not as significant as those from electricity production, auto emissions will
grow as consumers purchase more cars, and