Energy Reform in ASEAN: Balancing Political, Economic, and Scientific Objectives

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Energy Reform in ASEAN: Balancing Political, Economic, and Scientific Objectives1

Palapan Kampan

Abstract: This article focuses on the past, present, and future of environments in the

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the region moves toward the 2015

launch of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Policies and data are compared between

the ten nations in the group and with others such as the USA, Australia, and EU members.

Opportunities to promote and support expansion of renewable energies are explored

alongside factors constraining green growth initiatives. Climate science and statistical

analyses are used to bolster recommendations in favor of implementation of new

environmental legislation such as a regional cap-and-trade mechanism and carbon tax. A

holistic approach to environmental protectionism is proposed in consideration of conflicting

economic and scientific interests, which have resulted in poor enforcement of existing

regulations.

Keywords: Renewable energy, sustainability, climate change

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This version contains meta-analysis and supplementary material to article entitled Energy Reform in

ASEAN: Balancing Political, Economic, and Scientific Objectives, published in International Journal of Emerging Electric Power Systems (Kampan and Tanielian, 2015), DOI: 10.1515/ijeeps-2014-0190

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Contents Page

Part 1: Overview of Climate Change

1.1 Introduction 1

1.1.1 Research Methods 2

1.1.2 Limitations and Areas of Concerns 3

1.2 Climate Change 3

1.2.1 Politics of Climate Change Denial 4

1.3 Economic Growth and CO2 6

1.3.1 Production and Consumption of Electricity 9

1.3.2 Coal: Black Plague of the New Millennium 12

1.3.3 High Income Countries Invest More in Renewable Energies 12

Part 2: AEC Environment 14

2.1 Environmental Threat Assessment 15

2.1.1 Deforestation a Leading Cause of CO2 Emissions in ASEAN 16

2.1.2 Slash and Burn Farming 18

2.1.3 Agriculture 20

2.2 Nuclear Power: Maybe, Maybe Not 34

2.2.1 Nuclear Safety 38

2.2.2 Location, Location, Location 40

2.2.3 Managing Spent Fuel 42

Part 3: Politics and Economics of Energy 44

3.1 ASEAN Energy 45

3.1.1 ASEAN Energy Independence and Security 46

3.2 Least Developed Countries: Opportunity for Ground-Up Clean Growth 48

3.2.1 Cambodia 48

3.2.2 Laos 51

3.2.3 Myanmar 52

3.3 Middle-Income Countries: Quality Development 53

3.3.1 Thailand 54

3.3.2 Vietnam 57

3.3.3 Philippines 59

3.3.4 Indonesia 60

3.4 Advanced Economies: Innovation and Investment 62

3.4.1 Singapore 62

3.4.2 Brunei 64

3.4.3 Malaysia 65

Part 4: Discussion 68

4.1 Political and Legal Agendas 68

4.2 Subsidize Research and Investment 70

4.3 Dams Threaten Human Rights 71

4.4 Developing a Holistic Approach 72

4.5 Individual Contributions 75

4.6 Carbon Tax and Trade Options 76

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Contents (continued) Page

4.7 ASEAN Sun and Wind 78

Part 5: Conclusions and Recommendations 81

5.1 Government Assistance of CO2 Management 81

5.2 ASEAN Toothless? 82

5.3 Recommendations 83

5.4 Closing 84

References 85

List of Figures Page

1: Correlation between GDP and CO2 Growth in ASEAN 2000 2010 7

2: Correlation between GDP and CO2 Growth by Region and Income 2000-10 8

3: Average Annual GDP Growth Rate 2004 2012 9

4: Percent of Electricity Generated with Coal in Selected Nations 2013 12

5: ASEAN Economics at a Glance 14

6: ASEAN Land at or around Sea Level 15

7: CO2 Emissions in ASEAN 2010 - 2012 (kt) 16

8: ASEAN Deforestation 2000 - 2011 (of 127,630 total km2) 17

9: CO2 Emissions by Source in ASEAN States (most recent) 18

10: Brunei Labor Force Distribution 2008 21

11: Brunei Agricultural Emissions 21

12: Cambodia Labor Force Distribution 2012 22

13: Cambodia Agricultural Emissions 23

14: Indonesia Labor Force Distribution 2012 23

15: Indonesia Agricultural Emissions 24

16: Indonesia Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012 25

17: Laos Labor Force Distribution 2012 25

18: Malaysia Labor Force Distribution 2012 26

19: Malaysia Agricultural Emissions 26

20: Myanmar Labor Force Distribution 2000 27

21: Myanmar Agricultural Emissions 28

22: Philippines Labor Force Distribution 2012 29

23: Philippines Agricultural Emissions 29

24: Philippines Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012 30

25: Singapore Labor Force Distribution 2009 30

26: Singapore Agricultural Emissions 31

27: Thailand Labor Force Distribution 2012 32

28: Thailand Agricultural Emissions 32

29: Thailand Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012 33

30: Vietnam Labor Force Distribution 2012 33

31: Vietnam Agricultural Emissions 34

32: 2011 Electricity Production by Source in ASEAN 2011 35

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Figures (continued) Page

33: Electricity Production by Source in Selected non-ASEAN Countries 2011 37

34: ASEAN Natural Gas Production and Consumption Increases 2003-12 38

35: Growing Coal Shortfalls 2003 - 2012 (thousand short tons) 38

36: ASEAN Energy Balance of Trade 2013-14, Million Tonne Oil Equivalent (Mtoe) 47

37: Cambodia Carbon Dioxide Emissions 49

38: Cambodia Electric Power Surplus/Deficit 2000-2011 (kWh) 49

39: Cambodia Electricity Production by Source 2011 50

40: Cambodia % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 51

41: Laos Carbon Dioxide Emissions 51

42: Myanmar Carbon Dioxide Emissions 52

43: Myanmar Electricity Production by Source 2011 53

44: Myanmar % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 53

45: Thailand Carbon Dioxide Emissions 54

46: Thailand Electricity Production by Source 2011 55

47: Thailand % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 56

48: Thailand Coal and Non-Hydro Renewable Generation 2000-2011 (kWh) 56

49: Vietnam Carbon Dioxide Emissions 57

50: Vietnam Electricity Production by Source 2011 58

51: Vietnam % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 58

52: Philippines Carbon Dioxide Emissions 59

53: Philippines Electricity Production by Source 2011 59

54: Philippines % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 60

55: Indonesia Carbon Dioxide Emissions 60

56: Indonesia Electricity Production by Source 2011 61

57: Indonesia % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 61

58: Indonesia Coal Power Production 2000-2011 (kWh) 62

59: Singapore Carbon Dioxide Emissions 63

60: Singapore Electricity Production by Source 2011 63

61: Brunei Carbon Dioxide Emissions 64

62: Brunei Electricity Production by Source 2011 65

63: Malaysia Carbon Dioxide Emissions 65

64: Malaysia Electricity Production by Source 2011 66

65: Malaysia % of Electricity Generated from Coal Sources 2000-2011 66

66: Malaysia Coal Power Production 2000-2011 (kWh) 67

67: Percent of Population Age 25 and Older with Secondary Education 73

68: ASEAN Non-Hydro Renewable Energy Production Trend 2000-2011 79

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Part 1: Overview of Climate Change

1.1 Introduction

Environmental sciences best help us to understand events that are occurring or have

already occurred. Historical data can be used to extrapolate predictive models for the future,

but the reliability of any such projections is unknown until a future time. Notwithstanding

inherent deficiencies of forecasting methods, given sufficient data, scientists can maximize

reliability of inferences by applying a corollary of Newtons first law lacking significant

system and/or variable changes, trends are likely to continue on the same path. Climate

science has been scrutinized more than other disciplines, with sizeable populations

considering the science untrustworthy to the extent that the findings of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been called a conspiracy (USEPA, 2010).

Scientists in multiple fields, sovereign States, and intergovernmental organizations

alike support the idea that climate change is occurring, and that human activity is accelerating

the change. NASAs Earth Observatory defined global warming as the unusually rapid

increase in Earths average surface temperature over the past century primarily due to the

greenhouse gases [GHGs] released as people burn fossil fuels (Riebeek, 2010). Despite the

logic of reason, skeptics cite natural cycles rather than human activity as underlying causes

of climate change (Pipher, 2013).

Global warming is a threat and risk to every person in every country on earth. Root

causes are known. Governments and organizations have begun to explore means of

mitigating potential harms associated with macro-environmental changes. Among proposed

responses are strategic reduction of CO2 emissions from sources like power plants, factories,

and automobiles through implementation of higher regulatory standards, expansion of

renewable energy production, and development of cleaner technologies. If scientific interests

alone shaped the future, our world would likely transform into something of a paradise,

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considering the potential of existing and feasible technology. However, political and

economic paradigms seriously constrain innovation and deployment of new technologies. If

the world is to continue developing, improving, and thriving economically in spite of

continued climate change, interests and demands of multiple domains must be balanced.

This article focuses on the past, present, and future of environments in the Association

of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the region moves toward the 2015 launch of the

ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). A fundamental objective of this research is to support

sustainable development in the region. Policies and data are compared between the ten

nations in the group and with outside nations such as Canada, the United States, Australia,

Japan, Korea, and China. Opportunities to promote and support expansion of renewable

energies are explored alongside factors constraining green growth initiatives. Climate science

and statistical analyses are used to bolster recommendations in favor of implementation of

new environmental legislation such as cap-and-trade and carbon tax systems. A holistic

approach to environmental protectionism is proposed in consideration of conflicting

economic and scientific interests, which have resulted in poor enforcement of existing

regulations.

1.1.1 Research Methods

This is a mixed-methods study which incorporates qualitative review of literature and

legal statutes with quantitative statistical analysis. Given that the topic includes issues such as

climate change, epistemological arguments were present among secondary sources, some

claiming to confound the view of many of our sources. Specifically, we discovered a small

minority of authors rejected anthropogenic global warming. We approached the subject as

naturalists, and deferred to experts in the field in matters of technical complexity. Where

experts agreed nearly unanimously, such as on the issues of AGW, we found no reason to cite

opposition or give credit to its arguments. We used a legal positivist approach in analysis and

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discussion of legal matters. To the extent that it was apparent that new legislation or

significant alteration of existing law would support greater application and enforcement of lex

lata, we proffered suggestions de lege ferenda. Some statistical data were retrieved from

United Nations, UNESCAP (2014) or World Bank (2014a) and then presented in-text or

formatted in tables. Other data were retrieved in spreadsheet format then translated into Excel

for graphic presentation or SPSS for calculation of Pearson correlations, means, frequencies,

and percentages.

1.1.2 Limitations and Areas of Concerns

This study was limited by the amount and quality of data available to the public on the

instant topics. Data retrieved from electronic databases were generally 2 or more years old,

and although we inferred from prior trends that changes since the latest data entries did not

significantly affect our conclusions, this study was limited by immediacy of which data was

reported and made available. Laos and Myanmar, both least developed countries, failed to

report data on certain issues, which are noted within the text. ASEAN does not have a

uniform system of data collection and reporting standard, and as such some quantities may

vary between sources due to methods of collection and analysis. In order to minimize effects

of inconsistent methodology among sources, we collected data and analysis from dozens of

source types including governmental, intergovernmental, non-profit organizations, academic

and trade publications, private companies, and news media. The diversity and volume of our

reference base mitigated the potential for erroneous conclusions, but we recognize that our

data may vary from those of other sources.

1.2 Climate Change

Cook et al (2013) examined nearly 12,000 peer-reviewed scientific articles, finding

that of articles expressing a position about anthropogenic global warming (AGW), more than

97% endorsed the idea that humans are causing AGW, whereas the number of papers

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rejecting the consensus on AGW [was] a vanishingly small proportion of the published

research. Such overwhelming opinion supporting the theory that climate change is a result of

human activity subjugates popular conservative-American political beliefs that global

warming is either not happening or is strictly a natural phenomenon (Leiserowitz, 2011).

Even the American government endorses AGW and popular estimates of likely temperature

increases of between 2F and 11.5F by 2100 (USEPA, 2014). In addition to temperature

increases, AGW is expected to influence the patterns and amounts of precipitation, reduce ice

and snow cover, raise sea level, and increase the acidity of the oceans, thereby impacting

water and food supplies, infrastructure, ecosystems, and personal health (ibid).

1.2.1 Politics of Climate Change Denial

School children around the world learn about climate change and global warming in

their science textbooks. In Thailand, 2008 Basic Education Curriculum Standard SC6.1

integrates climate change topics into science curriculum starting at the Matayom level

(Thailand MOE, 2008). Thai foreign language curriculum is designed to provide grade 6, 9,

and 12 graduates with vocabulary that enables them to communicate about climate with

foreigners. Considering that English is the preferred foreign language in Thailand, these

curriculum standards appear intended to direct students toward engaging students with the

globally-accepted model of AGW as researched and reported by numerous intergovernmental

and international organizations in the English language. Popular English-language science

texts such as the Focus Smart Matayom series (Pelangi, 2015) teach Thai students to

recognize ecological impacts of human activity at a global scale, but understanding global

warming entails more than just science.

Stanford University (2015) model curriculum on the subject states that global

climate change is unequivocal, almost certainly is caused mostly by us, already is causing

significant harm, and is growing rapidly. The statement that climate change is almost

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certainly caused mostly by us alludes to ongoing public debate in the United States

regarding the precise degree to which humans are impacting the natural environment. While

the long-term effects of AGW are largely unknown, and every statistical or theoretical

science has a margin of error, the overwhelming consensus among scientists is that the earth

is warming and that humans are the main cause. There are, however, a small group of

scientists and numerous political advocates who oppose this generally-accepted theory of our

era. Climate change skeptics or deniers exist around the world, but in other Western countries

where speech on the issue is not seriously censored, they are marginalized and not influential

in government. Oddly enough, in the United States the ideology of climate change denial has

become firmly rooted in the conservative psyche and has arguably interfered with legislation

on the issues (Collomb, 2014).

Dunlap and McCright (2008) found a widening gap between Republican and

Democratic party views on global warming. In the late-1990s, both the right and left political

affiliations held similarly mixed opinions on the severity of global warming, whether or not it

is caused primarily by humans, its potential threats, and scientists beliefs about it. Over a

decade, Democrats views converged more with scientific consensus while Republic opinions

shifted further away from scientifically-verifiable ideas. Currently, climate change denial is a

phenomenon almost entirely associated with the conservative or Republican party, and

not only a small, marginalized minority segment thereof. An Ipsos MORI (2013) survey of

adults from 21 countries found that Americans were the least convinced that climate change

is a result of human activity, with just over half (54%) believing so. By comparison, over

90% of Chinese respondents believed humans are causing climate change.

Not all conservatives disbelieve AGW. Conservative news publications like

Bloomberg recognize its factual nature and play a part in exposing the underlying causes of

mass skepticism (Bagley, 2013). Corporate interests have been blamed for legislative delay

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and public misinformation. Brulle (2013) found dark money has been funding of the

climate change counter-movement, where major energy organizations like Exxon and Koch

Enterprises concealed $558 million in donations deliberately intended to stall progress and

confuse laypeople. Other authors such as Wei-Hock Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center

for Astrophysics have accepted millions from fossil fuel industry donors prior to engaging in

unethical argument against AGW. Gillis and Schwartz (2015) of the New York Times

compared the counter movement to efforts of tobacco corporations in the 1960s to block

legislation that harms their sales by casting an illusion of scientific discrepancy.

Considering the expansive presence of American corporations around the world, it is

doubtful that other countries have not been affected by lobbying or corrupt payments

intended to stall legislation and keep the public in the dark about AGW. American views and

politics are largely constrained to within its own national borders, but in an era of globalized

trade and natural resource development, we can infer that the worlds largest economy has

influence outside of its jurisdiction. Obviously there are economic arguments against

regulation and scientific inquiry, but research has suggested that such arguments as those the

Koch brothers and petroleum companies proffer are driven by short-term profitability

concerns rather than a quest for long-term sustainability. Despite the conspicuous nature of

their ruse, primarily Republican States like Florida and North Carolina have bought into the

bad-science of climate change denial insomuch that the term climate change has been

banned and discontinued in official government business (Korten, 2015; Williams, 2015).

The situation in the United States may be exaggerated by political posturing, but climate

change denial, ignorance, and apathy probably poses threats to every country on earth.

1.3 Economic Growth and CO2

Enormous amounts of energy are required for economies to flourish. It is no secret

that wars have been and will probably continue to be fought over natural resources, especially

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the hydrocarbons which move people and goods around the globe. In northern latitudes,

natural gas and coal are essential to heat homes and offices while in the south the same fossil

fuels are needed for cooling. Without these vital substances, hundreds of millions of people

would die, and to say the least, our world would be less comfortable.

Whether for transportation, heating, or electricity, consumption of fossil fuels releases

carbon into the atmosphere. Greater conventional energy consumption leads directly to higher

levels of carbon emissions. In order to quantify what seems implicit that economic

development results in higher levels of carbon in the air we used SPSS to calculate Pearson

product-moment correlations. Our analysis of recent data showed near perfect correlations

between growth in CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP), with limited

exceptions.

Figure 1: Correlation between GDP and CO2 Growth in ASEAN 2000 2010

At the world and East Asian regional levels,

we found the same trend that is seen at the national

level in eight of ten ASEAN member States

statistically significant high correlations between the

two variables. However, we found something

interesting at high national income levels the trend

was either absent or it reversed.

From the data, we deduce that countries in

the high income group have sufficient capital and technological infrastructure to invest in

cleaner energies. Singapore reduced CO2 emissions by transitioning from oil-fired to natural

gas power generation, resulting in a negative correlation between GDP and emissions. While

no statistically significant correlations were found in OECD and high income groups as a

whole, we found individual nations decreased CO2 intensity in the electric power sector by

r= p=

BRN 0.713 0.014

KHM 0.997 0.000

IDN 0.940 0.000

LAO 0.907 0.000

MYS 0.960 0.000

PHL 0.573 0.065

SGP -0.875 0.000

THA 0.896 0.000

VNM 0.981 0.000

Source: Author; UNESCAP

(2014); World Bank (2014a)

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shifting to renewable energies and away from fossil fuels. Two major exceptions were

Australia and the United States of America, where about 90% and 69% of electricity came

from oil, gas, and coal in the year 2012, respectively.

Figure 2: Correlation between GDP and CO2 Growth by Region and Income 2000

2010

Here we found a serious conflict between

economic and scientific interests in that both

sustained GDP growth and reduction in emissions

are simultaneous objectives. Likewise concerning

is the fact that political entities have hitherto been

unable to reconcile these competing agendas to

achieve mutual satisfaction.

ASEAN economic growth rates have been

phenomenal in recent years. Overall, ASEANs aggregate economies nearly tripled between

2004 and 2012 (World Bank, 2014a). Given ASEANs relatively low income status

compared to groups like OECD or EU, we can infer that a great deal of that growth came

from infrastructure, financial, and service sectors. Consumer inflation, which averaged nearly

600% over the same nine years in the region, may have contributed to reported growth

depending on GDP calculation methodology.

Despite these high annual growth rates, ASEAN CO2 emissions between 2004 and

2010 grew only 25%, which may seem like good news, but the highest-intensity growth

period has yet to come as ASEAN moves out of low/middle into middle/high income. Low

relative CO2 growth in comparison to economic growth between 04 and 10 was also

affected by Singapore and Myanmar, which reduced carbon emissions by 53% and 28%,

respectively. Myanmars use of hydroelectric power and Singapores transition to natural gas

r= p=

World 0.986 0.000

East Asia 0.955 0.000

OECD 0.042 0.902

LDC 0.963 0.000

Low 0.941 0.000

Low/Mid 0.982 0.000

Middle 0.969 0.000

Upper Mid 0.960 0.000

High 0.389 0.237


(2014); World Bank (2014a)

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from coal power facilitated these reductions. Singapore may be able to sustain low-carbon

intensity considering its high income status and ability to invest in cleaner energies, but

Myanmars carbon emissions will likely rise beyond 2004 levels as it develops after opening

its markets and re-establishing ties with Western nations.

Figure 3: Average Annual GDP Growth Rate 2004 2012

1.3.1 Production and Consumption of Electricity

Post-industrial revolution economies need electricity to

power factories, which are staffed by robots and programmable

logic controllers, dead without power. There are many options

for electricity production, but new developments like algae and

biomass have yet to produce the type of energy return on

invested (EROI) ratio to sustain modern society. Nuclear power has the highest EROI, but it

is mired by controversy and potential contamination dangers. Hydropower produces the

second highest EROI but dams force people away from their homes and drastically alter the

natural environment. Solar and wind are efficient enough to sustain consumption, but they

experience intermittency problems considering that it is not always sunny or windy, and

storage efficiencies are too low to make them a viable base load option. Generally, power

grids are supplied by the third and fourth most efficient processes coal and gas (Conca,

2015).

Load over any grid varies at different times of day. In order to supply the changing

demand, generation is broken down into base load, intermediate, and peak segments. Base

load power is generated by plants that have low operating costs and consistent fuel. Capacity

factor, or the percent of time the plants operate at full output, also influences what part of the

load cycle plants will serve. Nuclear plants usually have a capacity factor of around 90%,

BRN 12.82%

KHM 18.11%

IDN 26.87%

LAO 33.11%

MYS 16.06%

PHL 19.31%

SGP 16.15%

THA 14.09%

VNM 23.92%

Source: Author;

World Bank (2014a)

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compared to 44% for hydro, 20-40% for wind, and 5-19% for solar (Frank, 2014), making

nuclear a perfect base load source alongside coal and geothermal. Combined cycle gas plants

can ramp up and turn down production quickly, making them staple intermediate sources, but

higher operating costs have kept gas from seriously competing with coal as a base load

source (Kaplan, 2008), although gas production is growing as we try to cut emissions. Wind

and solar are subject to intermittent shutdowns caused by weather; that plus the high capital

costs make them a good peak demand source, but nothing more consistent as of yet.

World electricity generation increased by about 86% between 1990 and 2011, when it

sat at 21 petawatt hours (EIA, 2014). Production is set to increase to 39 petawatt hours by

2040 (EIA, 2013). IAEA (2011) forecasted 44-99% growth in nuclear power generating

capacity between 2010 and 2035, making it the second fastest-growing source behind

renewable energies (EIA, 2013). As of 2014, only about 11% of the worlds electricity comes

from nuclear power. Five countries USA, France, Russia, South Korea, and China

generate 68% of the roughly 2.4 gigawatt hours produced among all reactors worldwide

(Schneider and Froggatt, 2014). Thirteen countries relied upon nuclear to generate at least

25% of their total electricity, but nuclear power has not yet been deployed globally. Only 30

countries are home to the 435 total functional reactors worldwide (NEI, 2014).

Nuclear power generation declined significantly following Fukushima, both in net

terawatt hours and share of electricity production (Schneider and Froggatt, 2014). Germany

closed all reactors that began in 1980 or earlier and vowed to close all other reactors by 2022

(European Commission, 2014). In Switzerland, 40% of power comes from nuclear, and

despite a public vote in favor of keeping it, the government decided to phase out reactors by

2034 (World Nuclear Association, 2014a). The EU as a whole set a goal to supply 27% of its

energy with renewables by 2030 (European Commission, 2014a), but renewables cannot

replace other power sources per se. If nuclear power generation is decreased, it is nearly

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certain that a fossil fuel source will replace it, which makes it more difficult to achieve

aggressive targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

Renewable technologies are relatively new compared to other sources, giving them a

natural advantage in growth markets. Opportunity cost may also influence investment in

renewables in the early 21st century. Given the unpredictable future of rare earth mineral

prices, and their integral role in wind turbines, investors may have bought into renewables

with future prices in mind. A diverse energy mix is desirable, and in the longer-term nuclear

power is not likely threatened by expansive use of renewables because renewables are not

suitable for base load power generation. High capital costs and capacity factors constrain

solar, wind, and geothermal to supplemental producers.

Nil fuel costs are the main financial benefits of wind, hydroelectric, and solar power.

However, plant construction capital costs of these clean energies often exceed those for

natural gas and coal plants. Nuclear power plants are frequently less expensive to build than

some geothermal, biomass, and offshore wind production facilities. Overall profitability

analyses tend to favor combustion turbine or combined cycle natural gas plants, which run

about 12-19% as costly as nuclear plants, roughly half the cost of onshore wind, and one-

quarter that of solar photovoltaic (EIA, 2013a). Hence, the greatest opportunities for utility

service providers in the immediate future lie primarily in the gas sector considering

government emissions regulations favor gas over coal, though there is considerable room for

concurrent expansion of renewable sources. The future may not be as simple. Government

incentives, air emissions controls, and fuel costs could threaten fossil fuel production

considerably, leaving nuclear power as the only remaining economically feasible source for

base load power barring near-miraculous advances in battery storage technologies.

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1.3.2 Coal: Black Plague of the New Millennium

Coal-fired power plants and diesel engines are main producers of particulate matter

(PM) found in the air like dust, dirt, soot, smoke, and liquid droplets. The World Health

Organization (2014) estimated 7 million annual deaths worldwide are attributable to air

pollution. Exposure to air pollution has also been associated with stunted lung growth

(Gauderman et al, 2004).

Figure 4: Percent of Electricity Generated with Coal in Selected Nations 2013

Climate change is

associated with regional

decreases in precipitation,

resulting in sustained increases in

PM and decreased air quality

(Daniel and Winner, 2009) and

thus greater health risk.

Air pollution may be little

more than a nuisance in the rural landscape, but in major cities, it is becoming more of a daily

threat to health and wellbeing. Perhaps nowhere on earth are the harmful impacts of PM more

noticeable than in China, where only 3 of 74 cities achieved national air quality standards in

2013 (Xin, 2014). Yet, while the dangers of coal are becoming more well-known and

publicized, finding a suitable replacement is a nearly impossible task, considering that coal is

used in 70% of global steel production and 41% of electricity production (World Coal

Association, 2013).

1.3.3 High Income Countries Invest More in Renewable Energies

Between 2000 and 2011, electricity consumption increased 13% in high income

countries. Around 40% of that demand rise was supplied by green power as renewables

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mongolia

South Africa

Poland

PRC

Australia

India

Israel

Indonesia

Germany

USA

UK

Japan

Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World Bank

(2014a)

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capacity increased by about 32%, and rose by about 2.5% as a portion of overall electricity

production over those twelve years. By comparison, in low and middle income countries,

including eight of ten ASEAN members, demand for electricity grew by 123% while

generation capacity from renewables grew only 21%, and renewables as a fraction of all

electricity production fell by more than 3%. Remarkably, the European Union supplied the

entire 9% growth in electricity demand with renewable energies between 2000 and 2011, by

which time renewables made up over 20% of all sources (World Bank, 2014).

We found the rapid increase in demand for electricity witnessed in lower income

countries was supplied by cheaper, easier fossil fuel sources, whereas in high income

countries, technological and financial infrastructure was sufficient to explore more eco-

friendly means of growing capacity. As a result of investment in cleaner technologies, high

income countries were able to stabilize CO2 emissions whereas low and middle income

countries nearly doubled emissions in the first decade or so of the new millennium. Per capita

emissions in the low and middle income group in 2010 were less than three times those in the

high income group, but per capita emissions in the high income group trended downward

whereas they were on the rise in low and middle income countries.

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Part 2: AEC Environment

Southeast Asia is a collection of countries sharing some common ethnic heritage, but

the region is otherwise politically, religiously, and economically diverse.

Figure 5: ASEAN Economics at a Glance

Much of the current economic

situation in ASEAN has roots in the

colonial period, when Singapore first

became an offshore banking center,

paving the way toward its enormous

wealth in comparison with most of the

region. Western powers developed basic

infrastructure through forced labor in

Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar,

Malaysia, Indonesia, Laos, and the

Philippines, but did little to strengthen

those nations under colonial occupation.

Rather, seeds of economic disparity were

sown under colonial systems, wherein

locals were deprived of simple economic

freedoms.Current high levels of poverty and agriculture involvement can be directly traced to

principles of inequity from the 18th

and 19th

centuries (Hong Kong Education Bureau, n.d.).

ASEAN (2014a) is comprised of three pillars or communities Political Security,

Economics, and Sociocultural. Since peace and stability have been achieved within the

region, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) has become the new focus. ASEAN

(2014b) members set out to create a single market and production base through AEC, one that

% Below

Poverty

GDP per

capita

(PPP)

% of Labor

Force in

Agriculture

BRN NA% $54,800

(2013 est.) 4.2%

KHM 20%

(2012 est.)

$2,600

(2013 est.) 55.8%

IDN 11.7%

(2012 est.)

$5,200

(2013 est.) 38.9%

LAO 22%

(2013 est.)

$3,100

(2013 est.) 73.1%

MYS 3.8%

(2009 est.)

$17,500

(2013 est.) 11.1%

MMR 32.7%

(2007 est.)

$1,700

(2013 est.) 70%

PHL 26.5%

(2009 est.)

$4,700

(2013 est.) 32%

SGP NA% $62,400

(2013 est.) 1.3%

THA 13.2%

(2011 est.)

$9,900

(2013 est.) 38.2%

VNM 11.3%

(2012 est.)

$4,000

(2013 est.) 48%


(2014a)

15

is highly competitive and fully integrated into global economies, so that equitable economic

development may persist in Southeast Asia. Whether or not the AEC shall live up to its

ambitious goals remains unknown, but given the explicit commitments nations have made

toward major economic growth, we feel it necessary to consider environmental threats such

growth implies. In many regards, an environmental impact survey satisfies ASEANs security

mandate, since climate change, decreasing resource bases, and increasing pollution are

expected to create militant conflict (USJFCOM, 2010).

2.1 Environmental Threat Assessment

Figure 6: ASEAN Land at or around Sea Level

Sea level rise, for example, is

potentially devastating to ASEAN,

where total land below 5 meters is

larger than the entire country of Laos.

Displacement of peoples in Vietnam,

Indonesia, and Philippines would be

catastrophic, leading undoubtedly to

national emergency and potential

interstate conflict due to massive influx

of refugees into Cambodia, Malaysia,

Thailand, and Australia. Collectively, ASEAN States have reason to take proactive measures

designed to help mitigate climate change by reducing emissions which are known to

contribute to AGW. While low-lying States can do little more than express concern at the

global level, they can join together to change their habits at the domestic and regional levels.

% of land

below 5m

Total land

(km2)

Land below

5m (km2)

BRN 3.34 5,270 176

KHM 3.84 176,520 6,782

IDN 5.50 1,811,570 99,594

LAO 0.00 230,800 0

MYS 2.99 328,550 9,831

MMR 4.56 653,540 29,802

PHL 6.02 298,170 17,941

SGP 8.06 670 54

THA 4.17 510,890 21,292

VNM 17.50 311,060 54,443

Land below 5m in ASEAN

(km2):

239,915


(2014a)

16

2.1.1 Deforestation a Leading Cause of CO2 Emissions in ASEAN

Between 2004 and 2010, CO2 emissions rose in eight of ten ASEAN states. While

Singapore and Philippines noticed reductions in CO2 emissions of 28% and 53%,

respectively, the region as a whole increased emissions by 25% over the seven year period

(World Bank, 2014). UNESCAP (2014) reported emissions rose by about 7% between 2010

and 2012, when the four biggest producers of CO2 were Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and

Vietnam. Total CO2 emissions for all ten ASEAN members is roughly the same as that for

Japan alone, less than 25% that of the United States alone, and less than 15% that of China

alone.

Figure 7: CO2 Emissions in ASEAN 2010 - 2012 (kt)

However, growth is likely and despite low relative emissions in recent years,

sustainable development and environmental consciousness are important for ASEAN

members. One area of increasing concern is deforestation, which is the second-leading cause

of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, after fossil fuel combustion (van der Werf et al, 2009).

Between the years 2000 and 2011, net deforestation in ASEAN was nearly 100,000 square

kilometers, an area more than half the size of Cambodia and nearly half as large as Laos.

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2010 2011 2012

Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World Bank (2014a)

VNM

THA

SGP

PHL

MMR

MYS

LAO

IDN

KHM

BRN

17

Figure 8: ASEAN Deforestation 2000 - 2011 (of 127,630 total km2)

Vietnam and Philippines

increased their combined forested

lands in that time by over 28,000

square kilometers while

Singapore neither gained nor lost,

and Thailand and Brunei lost less

than 200 square kilometers of

forest each.

Indonesias severe deforestation problem gained the attention of Hollywoods

Harrison Ford, who became rather upset with the national Forestry Minister on camera about

illegal logging (Horowitz, 2014; AFP, 2013). Ford may have blundered politically by

shouting at the Indonesian Minster, but the science fueling his emotion was clear. Miettinen

and Liew (2011) found alarmingly high deforestation rates throughout the Indonesian

archipelago region. Sumatra lost nearly a quarter of its total forest and more than two-fifths of

peatland. Borneo lost almost an eighth of its forest and nearly a quarter of its peatland.

Malaysia lost more than one-eighth of its forest and close to one-half of its peatland, while

Indonesia lost nearly one-tenth of its forest and one-fifth of its peatland.

The largest single cause of deforestation in the equatorial Southeast Asian region is

expansion of palm oil plantations. Continued development of palm plantations is expected to

release massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere (Carlson et al, 2013), but economic

interests dominate the conversation in the region, considering that Indonesia and Malaysia

together supply about 90% of the worlds palm oil (Valentine, 2012). Rule of law is likely to

increase in peatland and forests throughout the region over time as it has in the Amazon and

BRN

KHM

IDN

LAO

MYS

MMR

THA

Source: Author; UNESCAP (2014); World

Bank (2014a)

18

Central Africa (Pearce, 2010), but developing world citizens have limited sources of income,

and hence exploitation of natural resources remains important for nations, at least through

efficiency-economy stages of development (Schwab, 2013). Deforestation itself is certainly

not irrelevant in the context of conversation about environmental protection, but perhaps the

focus should be shifted toward changing methods of clearing peatlands and forests, rather

than pursuing unrealistic goals of reducing forestry losses in the short and medium terms.

Figure 9: CO2 Emissions by Source in ASEAN States (most recent)

2.1.2 Slash and Burn Farming

Indonesia has been labeled the worlds third largest emitter of GHGs

(Knowledge@Wharton, 2012), but while much criticism has been of deforestation in general,

the precise problem seems to be fires. Slash-and-burn methods, although outlawed in

Indonesia, are the preferred way to clear forests and peatlands for palm plantations (BBC,

2013). Fires easily become uncontrollable, threatening wildlife species while degrading both

air and soil quality (Yadav, 2012). Smokey haze from Indonesias illegal fires circulates to

surrounding countries, giving Singapore and Malaysia reason to address the issue as one of

international concern. But, threats that current fires pose to ecosystems and the likelihood of

increased fire risk in a dryer, warmer future (Leahy, 2012) are largely ignored by officials as

corruption plagues the enforcement landscape in Indonesia (Deen, 2013). Corruption is a

sensitive issue entrenched in leadership. Need for comprehensive enforcement grows larger,

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00 BRN

KHM

IDN

MYS

MMR PHL

SGP

THA

VNM


Buildings (% of total)

Electricity and heat production

(% of total) Manufacturing and construction

(% of total) Transport (% of total)

19

but until the corruption problem is solved, Indonesian State action will probably amount to

little more than a placing a lotus leaf over the dead elephant in the room.

Slash-and-burn farming in northern Thailand is equally as great a problem as smoke

gets trapped in mountain valleys of Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai, threatening tourism and

local health (Thai MNRE, 2013). In only a few short decades, entrepreneurial corn farmers

have claimed some 4 million acres of hillside commons land (Saengpassa 2015). Every year,

without a deed or de jure rights to make commercial use of public land, these farmers clear

brush and ground cover with fire and plant corn that is typically sold for animal feed or

ethanol. After harvest, the dried corn stalks are once again set ablaze, creating a smoggy

season that locals say did not exist 30-40 years ago (Thammaraks 2015). But the solution is

elusive, considering that most rural citizens live in poverty with no apparent alternative

opportunity through which they can survive and improve their lives.

Some local businesses suffer from the toxic haze that covers the region each year, but

while some call for draconian law enforcement to control the situation, enforcement is not

politically favorable considering the propensity of Thai farmers and locals to unite in protest.

The government cannot collect fines from people who have no cash, and the police cannot

imprison the thousands of offenders who start fires every season. Instead, the government

puts up billboards and uses media to engage the public, hoping they will voluntarily stop,

which is unlikely. In this quandary, a slight utilitarian economic gain is made when

impoverished rural citizens can earn a little extra income, even though government lenience

causes political backlash from tourism and airline industries, and the smoke poses significant

environmental and health threats. Due to the extremity of competing interests in Northern

Thailand, there is no foreseeable end to the burning season.

The 2007 ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution was supposed to

change this disturbing trend. The agreement calls on members to take steps toward

20

cooperating on mitigation, but falls short of obligating states to impose criminal sanctions on

responsible parties. Despite the name which suggests the treaty is intended to reduce and

ultimately eliminate the hazy burden that blankets the region from year to year, the spirit of

the agreement makes it appear that communication is the underlying goal. Such ambiguous

soft law frequently appears in ASEAN agreements, and does not provide any real remedy.

Like other ASEAN agreements it has remained more of an ideological reminder of

what should occur rather than a binding legal instrument that can make change happen. While

intergovernmental personnel continue to brainstorm on forest fire problems, ASEAN

members should also seek to offset those impacts in other areas such as power generation and

transport. Minimum standards for auto emissions and expanded public transportation

networks can mitigate transport emissions whereas stabilizing emissions from electricity

production may be more challenging.

2.1.3 Agriculture

Farming, forestry, fisheries, and livestock are notorious sources of greenhouse gases.

An estimated third of the worlds GHG emissions come from this sector (Gilbert, 2012).

Agriculture emissions doubled in the past 50 years and are expected to rise another 30% by

2050 (FAO/Hayduk, 2014). Asian countries like the majority of ASEAN members have high

participation in agriculture, contributing significantly to global GHG emissions. If ASEAN

members intend to reduce emissions and set a course for green development, agriculture is in

need of attention throughout the region.

Currently, ASEAN members appear to be in early stages of any real change.

Investigation, research, communication, and analysis are occurring in the region, but much of

the discussion is limited to descriptive accounts. Political conditions are such that singling out

a particular state leads to snafu and complex posturing within the group. With some luck and

planning, some of these issues can be resolved in early AEC operations.

21

2.1.3(a) Brunei

Brunei is one of the minority members in AEC that has low involvement in

agriculture. Bruneis small land base and natural resource economy led to development of

industry as the main employer-sector. Even though Brunei itself has little agricultural

activity, as a low-lying country it is still threatened by upward GHG trends.

Figure 10: Brunei Labor Force Distribution 2008

Figure 11: Brunei Agricultural Emissions

World Bank (2014a) defined agricultural nitrous oxide emissions as emissions

produced through fertilizer use (synthetic and animal manure), animal waste management,

Source: Author; CIA (2015)

% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

0 20 40 60 80 100

2000

2005

2010

Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)

Agricultural nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2

equivalent) Agricultural methane emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2

equivalent)

22

agricultural waste burning (nonenergy, on-site), and savannah burning. Bruneis forestry

management, although neighboring Indonesian Borneo, is more active and as such we find

little reason to suspect wildfire is the prime cause of growth in nitrous oxide emissions;

rather, fertilizers and animal waste management are likely the causes of Bruneis increased

emissions. Brunei should continue to research and develop different methods of farming,

especially with livestock, with the intention of leveling-off nitrous oxide emissions, but its

volume is negligible compared to other countries around the region. As such, Brunei would

benefit most by engaging in political discussion on the issue and attempting to partner with

neighboring Malaysia and Indonesia to control and reduce their emissions.

2.1.3(b) Cambodia

Cambodias high agriculture involvement and relatively low labor participation in

industry are indicative of its status as an LDC. With time, agriculture participation will likely

decrease, but GHG intensity of the sector will probably continue to increase due to more

advanced and profitable farming methods.

Figure 12: Cambodia Labor Force Distribution 2012

Cambodias agricultural emissions grew significantly between 2000 and 2010 despite

a decrease in agriculture work from 73.7% to 51% of the entire labor force. Concurrent


% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

23

growth in methane and nitrous oxide levels imply increased cattle farming coupled with

waste management techniques that do not take into consideration GHGs. A ubiquitous sight

throughout the Mekong subregion is a rural road with cow dung dotting the path. Local land

management bureaus should start to consider reducing free-grazing rights in hopes that

farmers may manage animal waste more carefully if they could not walk away from it.

Figure 13: Cambodia Agricultural Emissions

2.1.3(c) Indonesia

Figure 14: Indonesia Labor Force Distribution 2012

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

2000

2005

2010




equivalent)


% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

24

Indonesias large population means that even modest participation in agriculture will

lead to large volumes of GHG emissions. Considering the well-known forest fire problem

ongoing, we suspect that illegal palm plantation burning may not be included in reported

emissions estimates. Fire prevalence has steadily increased in the past decade, meaning that it

runs counterintuitive that 2010 levels would have dropped following 2005 measurements.

Figure 15: Indonesia Agricultural Emissions

Once again, statistical methodology is unknown regarding the data presented. Is

Indonesia including illegal operations in its calculation of agriculture participation? If not,

then the data gives little indication of actual conditions. Given that Indonesia is the single-

largest emitter in the region, its people and government need to pay special attention to how

forests and farms are managed. Instead of leaving for the next generation the problems of

climate change, Indonesias leaders are in dire need of reform and scientific advisement not

adulterated by local or international economic interests. ASEAN as a whole should likewise

assume some responsibility for informing the public and providing evidence-based policy

advice regarding management of Indonesian agriculture.

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000

2000

2005

2010




equivalent)

25

Figure 16: Indonesia Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012

2.1.3(d) Laos

Laos fails to report consistently or entirely on multiple fronts, which make analysis of

the national condition problematic. A visit to the landlocked nation is sufficient to infer that

agriculture is the livelihood of the vast majority of Laotian people. Like Cambodia and

Myanmar, as GDP per capita increases, so will fertilizer use and cattle farming which

increase GHG emissions. Details on emissions, unfortunately, are not available at this stage

in Laotian development. Consistent, uniform reporting should thus be a top priority for Laos.

Figure 17: Laos Labor Force Distribution 2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source Author; World Bank (2014a)

Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)


% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

26

2.1.3(e) Malaysia

The Malaysian economy rose out of the middle income group through development of

its robust service sector. Malaysia is now a global competitor in white collar industries like

finance, marketing, engineering, and education. At the same time, it has a solid industrial

presence, with its state oil company as the flagship for the industry in the region.

Figure 18: Malaysia Labor Force Distribution 2012

Figure 19: Malaysia Agricultural Emissions

Agriculture participation is low, but growth in emissions shows the same increased

fertilizer use and cattle farming without effective waste management as seen throughout the

Source: Author, World Bank (2014a)

% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

2000

2005

2010




equivalent)

27

region. Malaysias colonial history paved way for an expansive system of statutes, similar to

English or American models. If Malaysia can take the next step and define itself uniquely as

the ASEAN member that managed utilize that legislative system to aggressively control

emissions, it would stand out as a world leader, and more importantly as a pioneer in

ASEAN.

2.1.3(f) Myanmar

Myanmars turbulent contemporary political history led the nation into isolationism

for decades during which it participated little in United Nations project. Myanmars

adversarial tone recently eased, and we see gradual reform in political and economic arenas.

Like the Laotian case, a visit to Myanmar is evidence enough that the population subsists

primarily on agriculture, but precisely how much in recent years is unclear due to Myanmars

laggard status when it comes to communication and transparent reporting.

Since Myanmar only recently opened to foreign investment, we can expect dramatic

growth by 2030, meaning increased earnings for farmers, who will shift to more modern

methods including usage of gasoline-powered farm equipment and chemical fertilizers.

Figure 20: Myanmar Labor Force Distribution 2000


% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

28

Government support for informational programs is essential to Myanmars

development of truly sustainable farm communities. Advances in technology allow for

conversion of methane-producing manure into biofuels should subsidies and loan options

become available for rural stakeholders. Although economic development will likely

reduce agriculture participation by one third or more within 20 years, GHG-intensity of the

sector will only grow. This can be mitigated by government planned and sponsored

educational and outreach activities. Myanmars engagement of its people will shape its near-

term future.

Figure 21: Myanmar Agricultural Emissions

2.1.3(g) Philippines

Philippines is progressive in its service sector participation. Despite low per capita

income levels, Filipinos are generally known as educated people. Their comparative

advantage in English will undoubtedly play a role in early AEC growth, and with a bit of luck

and planning, that language advantage will help propel them toward green growth.

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

2000

2005

2010




equivalent)

29

Figure 22: Philippines Labor Force Distribution 2012

Figure 23: Philippines Agricultural Emissions

Agriculture participation decreased consistently in the early 21st century, resulting in

only minimal growth of GHGs which were caused by the sectors increasing intensity. Like

Malaysia, the Philippines has in place a post-colonial legislative system that enacts timely

and thorough statutes. The countrys future depends on the government reducing corruption

and more effectively implementing and enforcing its relatively well-designed laws. Policy on

agriculture management, especially animal waste management, certainly will not harm the

Philippines or the region that can benefit from fluent English-language communication.

PHL Source: Author; World Bank (2014a)

% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

2000

2005

2010




equivalent)

30

Figure 24: Philippines Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012

2.1.3(h) Singapore

Much like Brunei, Singapore has very low agriculture participation, mainly due to its

small geographical area. The downside of this trend in employment is that Singapores

calories must be imported from countries where agricultural practices may not be efficient.

Since Singapore is dependent upon food from other countries, it can use its unique position as

consumer to motivate producer nations to improve practices.

Figure 25: Singapore Labor Force Distribution 2009

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012




% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

31

Singapores post-colonial legal system is the most developed in the region, and its

government is consistently ranked among the least corrupt in the world (Transparency

International, 2015). Good-governance, robust immigration, and a globally competitive

economy perhaps limit Singapores ability to relate to other countries in the region. If

partnerships can be made between scientific and academic institutions that foster expansive

agricultural research, then Singapore should be able to influence other ASEAN members

despite its lack of experience in agriculture.

Figure 26: Singapore Agricultural Emissions

2.1.3(i) Thailand

Thailand is consistently the biggest rice exporter in the world, and known to many as

the worlds kitchen. Thai food is by far the most famous among cuisines in ASEAN. It

should come as no surprise, then, that Thailands agriculture participation rate is quite high.

Liberal commons rights to utilize land without deed or permit facilitate expansive farming in

the Kingdom. As seen in virtually every other nation, GHG intensity is increasing in the

agriculture sector alongside declining labor force participation. Free range cattle farming

undoubtedly leads to waste management problems like in Cambodia. Unfortunately, Thai law

enforcement is weak, and local motivation to change practices is low.

0 10 20 30 40 50

2000

2005

2010




equivalent)

32

Figure 27: Thailand Labor Force Distribution 2012

Figure 28: Thailand Agricultural Emissions

Military control of the government in Thailand may indeed improve political and

administrative function, which had trended toward blatant corruption over the previous 20

years. However, longer-term economic growth will only minimally impact rural districts

without greater government involvement in agriculture sectors, especially relating to

anticompetitive practices. Low profitability on the farm leads to acts of desperation like

ongoing slash and burn farming in the north, which have calamitous annual effects. Historical

trends suggest that Thai law enforcement will remain lax on burning and commercial


% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

2000

2005

2010




equivalent)

33

agricultural squatting due to local economic interests, so education and outreach programs

remain the most effective means of changing habits. Education is by no means a panacea, but

until further developments occur, it should be a focus of governmental and NGO efforts.

Figure 29: Thailand Agriculture Labor Participation Trend 2000-2012

2.1.3(j) Vietnam

Although moving steadily toward industrialization, Vietnam is still technically a

communist country, which means its roots are in agriculture. The slow process of moving

into services and manufacturing is ongoing, but GHG intensity in agriculture is rising.

Figure 30: Vietnam Labor Force Distribution 2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012




% Agriculture

% Industry

% Services

34

Much like other countries around the region, Vietnam experienced increases in

agricultural emissions despite decreasing labor participation in agriculture, from 65.3% of the

labor force in 2000 to 47.4% in 2012 (World Bank, 2014a). If the central politburo could

effectively plan a mitigation strategy, theoretically Vietnam could emerge as a leader in

agricultural methods given its high participation rate and socialized structure. In the short

term, simple waste management could result in a GHG plateau.

Figure 31: Vietnam Agricultural Emissions

2.2 Nuclear Power: Maybe, Maybe Not

Consistent consumption of nonrenewable resources over an infinite time period will

result in reduction and eventual exhaustion of those resources. There are some people who

believe that hydrocarbons are not finite, but rather they are consistently replenished through

natural processes deep within the earth, but this Cornucopian theory is by no means

verifiable (Rhodes, 2008). In most regards, disbelief in peak oil and imminent energy crises

resembles climate change denial. Fossil fuels as we know them are nonrenewable, and thus

they will eventually be unavailable for use.

ASEAN members, like most of the worlds countries, are heavily dependent on fossil

fuels for electricity production. OECD/IEA (2013) forecasted ASEAN electricity generation

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

2000

2005

2010




equivalent)

35

capacity to grow by more than two and a half times between 2011 and 2035, from 176GW to

460GW. Coal plants, which account for roughly three-fourths of new thermal capacity units

in the region, are expected to pick up the majority of the new demand. This shift toward coal

in ASEAN is clearly a step backwards environmentally. The share of electricity produced by

renewable is expected to grow to 22% by 2035, but 57% of that will be hydroelectric, which

has serious human rights problems that are discussed later in this report. As concerning is the

prediction that coal-fired efficiencies in the region will less than half of those in Japan, where

higher technology production units are used. If forecasts are accurate, the reasonably well-

balanced energy mix in 2011 is set to become one of the worlds problem spots something

that could be avoided with more investment and stronger government policy.

Figure 32: 2011 Electricity Production by Source in ASEAN 2011

Movement from coal to gas is an important for mitigation of GHG emissions, an

environmental strategy which will only become more necessary in the latter part of the 21st

century. Although there is no present-day need, considering the lifespan of power plants, it is

important to factor in analysis of fuel longevity. In one hundred to one hundred fifty years, it

is likely that only renewable energies and nuclear power will be viable at commercial utility

scales due to depletion of non-renewable natural resources. So, while ASEANs proposed

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BRN KHM IDN MYS MMR PHL SGP THA VNM


Coal Hydroelectric Gas Oil Other Renewable

36

shift toward coal will likely ensure quick, cheap growth, it is not a sustainable plan and it

does signal that ASEAN members are not thinking beyond the short and middle terms.

There is no singular forecast for how many more years of oil, gas, and coal the world

has in supply, but estimates consistently suggest that commercially-available oil will run out

by the year 2100 with gas and coal following by 2150 (World Coal Association, 2015; BP,

2015). By comparison, uranium supplies are expected to last beyond the year 2200 (World

Nuclear Association, 2014). However, ASEAN members have yet to develop nuclear

capacity. Nuclear power has several advantages, but political and security concerns most

likely prevent broad development within ASEAN.

Nuclear plants are among the most expensive facilities to build, but they are also able

to generate more power than other sources. EIA (2013a) found costs for nuclear plants were

less than municipal solid waste, dual flash geothermal, offshore wind, biomass, fuel cell

natural gas, and single unit coal gasification with carbon capture. A dual unit nuclear reactor

project costs about the same as single unit pulverized coal with carbon capture, and pumped

storage hydroelectric generators. Fixed costs for nuclear are higher than all coal, gas, wind,

solar, and hydroelectric sources, but less than combined cycle biomass, municipal solid

waste, and geothermal. Nuclear power weighs-in as the cheapest in terms of variable costs

among gas, coal, biomass, and municipal solid waste. In other words, nuclear fuel is cheaper

than all other fuels. As a result, total operating costs for nuclear are lower than those for fossil

steam, gas turbine, and small scale utilities (EIA, 2013b).

Recent figures show ASEANs energy portfolio is generally less carbon-intensive

than countries like Australia, China, India, Korea, and the United States where the percentage

of power generated by coal exceeds that by natural gas. However, as electricity consumption

grows with overall economic development, ASEANs response is yet unknown. With zero

nuclear capacity in the region, ASEAN will need to develop renewable energy sources in

37

order to prevent massive increases in fossil fuel burning. In the longer term, nuclear power is

potentially the cleanest option for base load production, so long as fuel can be properly

managed and plant safety effectively kept to a global standard. The majority of ASEAN

members have expressed interest in nuclear power, which would be the most efficient means

of supplying increased demand in the growing region, but plant production is not set to

commence until 2020, and that may not actually happen (Bower, 2010; Jessup, 2011).

Figure 33: Electricity Production by Source in Selected non-ASEAN Countries 2011

Increased coal consumption poses economic concerns in at least three ASEAN states

where consumption already exceeds production. Under a free trade zone, Indonesias

growing coals surplus can supply foreign AEC demand, but such is not a long-term solution.

Natural gas is likewise threatened in the region as the rate of increase in consumption

outpaces that of production by nearly two to one. Whether it is with nuclear power,

geothermal, or some yet undiscovered energy source, as non-renewable fossil fuels diminish,

ASEAN members will need to replace that base load supply which cannot be satisfied with

solar or wind.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

AUS CAN CHN IND JPN KOR USA


Coal Hydroelectric Gas Oil Other Renewable Nuclear

38

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


(2014); World Bank (2014a)

Production Consumption

-30000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0


(2014); World Bank (2014a)

MYS PHL THA

Figure 34 (left): ASEAN Natural Gas Production and Consumption Increases 2003-12

Figure 35 (right): Growing Coal Shortfalls 2003 - 2012 (thousand short tons

2.2.1 Nuclear Safety

Safety has been an overriding focus in nuclear power since inception. Despite public

fears surrounding meltdown and disaster, much of which was provoked by the Fukushima

incident, nuclear energy is actually quite safe. Union of Concerned Scientists (2014) found

serious nuclear accidents have been few and far between, citing seven since 1957

Fukushima, Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Fermi 1, SL-1, Sodium Reactor Experiment, and

Windscale. Of those seven serious accidents, three were of particular concern Fukushima,

Chernobyl, and Three Mile Island.

Annual fatalities in the mining industry are generally around 170-175 (BLS, 2009;

BLS, 2011). By comparison, nuclear plants experience about 2-4 radiation deaths per year

(World Nuclear Association, 2014b). NASA estimated that nuclear power prevented 1.8

million deaths between 1971 and 2009, hundreds or even thousands of times more than

deaths it caused (Kharecha and Hansen, 2013). Due to its lower mortality and emissions

factors, fuel switching to nuclear power was recommended at NASAs Goddard Institute for

Space Studies. In spite of scientific support, nuclear power faces public opposition due to

perceived safety threats.

39

Through December 31, 2012 the 437 total, operating and shut down reactors in the

world had a combine operating experience of just over 15,247 years (IAEA, 2013). Given

that humans have experienced 3 serious nuclear accidents, nuclear power has an incident rate

of 1 per 5,082 reactor years. By comparison, thousands of people die in coal mines every year

(World Nuclear Association, 2014b). Gas power plants are some 8.75 times safer than coal

plants, with gas causing 2.8 deaths and 30 serious illnesses per terawatt hour as compared to

24.5 deaths and 225 serious illnesses attributable to coal electricity generation. That looks

great for gas until we see nuclear power, with 0.052 deaths and 0.22 serious injuries per

terawatt hour, is nearly 54 times safer than gas (Markandya and Wilkinson, 2007). By the

numbers alone, nuclear power should be the preferred power source if safety is a number one

concern.

Quantitative risk assessments most frequently find the broadly acceptable risk of

death for individuals lies between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 1,000,000 per annum (La Guen, 2008;

Law, n.d.). Hunter and Fewtrell (2001) found the maximum tolerable death risk to the public

from any new nuclear station is 1 in 100,000. Accordingly, the United States Nuclear

Regulatory Commission set goals for core damage frequency at 1 in 10,000 reactor years, and

large early release frequency at 1 in 100,000 reactor years (Cochran and McKinzie, 2011).

Newer plants operate with around a 1 in 1 million year core damage frequency, and those

planned to be built have roughly a 1 in 10 million year rating (World Nuclear Association,

2014b).

Hunter and Fewtrell (2001) identified specific fright factors which influenced

people to reduce their tolerance for risk. These factors included:

1. whether the threat is manmade rather than natural;

2. if the threat may cause hidden and irreversible damage that may result in disease

many years later;

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3. if the threat is a particular threat to future generations, pregnant women, or

children;

4. and, whether it causes damage to identifiable, rather than anonymous individuals.

Psychosocial factors seem to make the low risk associated with nuclear power less

tolerable than more prevalent dangers related to fossil fuels. Ironically, people like those in

Germany push for lower carbon and higher safety, but reject nuclear power which supports

both agendas. As decades pass into the future, it seems rather obvious that we cannot achieve

our carbon or safety objectives without nuclear power, but gaining public support is difficult

if not impossible in an era of internet media scares.

2.2.2 Location, Location, Location

Energy policy should be drafted and implemented based upon facts and evidence

rather than the whims and emotions of the general public. Electricity production is not

threatened today, but lacking near-miraculous breakthroughs in technology, people born in

the 21st century are likely to experience fuel shortages, which could lead to utility rate

volatility, brownouts, and serious industrial crises. This is not a gloom and doom prophecy,

but rather a natural economic law in any case where a non-renewable resource is continually

consumed over long periods of time. Unlike climate change, which is likely yet also generally

unknown as for precise details, the future of low and diminishing fossil fuel production is

generally known and endorsed by numerous scientific and governmental agencies cited in

this research. Nuclear power is not a perpetual solution through the 22nd

century, but it gives

us more time to develop new technologies and adjust consumption patterns.

Sensing a relatively similar degree of freedom from seismic activity, the head of the

British Office for Nuclear Regulation (UKONR, 2011) said, The extreme natural events that

preceded the accident at Fukushima - the magnitude 9 earthquake and subsequent huge

tsunami - are not credible in the UK. Locations of fault lines worldwide further suggest that

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there is no credible threat of a Fukushima-like event throughout the majority of worlds

countries including throughout ASEAN. A brief look at seismic activity suggests that middle

Sunda plate geography in Thailand, Malaysian and Indonesian Borneo, Cambodia, and South

Vietnam would be safe, as would northern Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam on the Eurasian

plate. Sumatra and Java islands in Indonesia should probably be avoided along with the

Eastern Philippines, but ASEANs tectonics should not seriously threaten safety.

Without Fukushima, our most recent nuclear disaster would have been Chernobyl

an incident we can infer resulted from inefficiencies and corruption of the Soviet empire in its

final stages. Technological and regulatory improvements virtually guarantee disaster-free

power production throughout the life of reactors. Such facts are why Japan did not abandon

nuclear power after the horrific accident on the Northeast side of Honshu Island. It is implicit

to say that if Fukushima had not happened, there would not have been such a sharp increase

in anti-nuclear thought in the mainstream media and political conversation. Still, little

attention has been paid to the underlying cause of the disaster poor planning.

Japans decision to authorize Fukushima plant construction on the East side of the

island, where severe earthquakes and tsunamis have been documented throughout history,

was an incomprehensible oversight that ultimately endangered the lives of millions of people

for generations to come. Japans entire Eastern border sits nearly on top of a massive fault

system where the Pacific, Eurasian, North American, and Philippine plates meet. This system

poses an especially high threat for tsunamis because they are all convergent plates

(Annenberg Learner, 2014; Damen, n.d.).

If earthquake hazards are our main concern, nuclear power plants may be built

anywhere aside from the Western edge of the Americas, the Mediterranean and Red Sea

region, the Asian Pacific coast, parts of Oceania and Central Asia, or wherever faults lie.

Natural disaster risk alone should not motivate such strong opposition to nuclear power

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within the leadership of developed nations like Germany, where natural disasters pose no

serious threat. A shutdown of a few specific existing plants based on risk of natural disaster

may be rational, but we found no evidence suggesting a total cancellation of an existing and

future nuclear energy program is anything but irrational.

2.2.3 Managing Spent Fuel

Active nuclear power generation facilities have very low incident rates when

compared to other base load power supplies. The evolution of technologies and standards

since the 1990s make nuclear accidents extremely rare. Outside of regions prone to

earthquake, there is virtually no chance of a disaster occurring. Even in seismically-active

areas, reactors and plants are safe, having been designed to handle earthquakes. Managing

nuclear waste then becomes the main health and safety concern.

Radioactive waste is a challenge to work with. It stays very hot for years after

separation. If a storage facility were to experience loss of coolant in the first few years, it

could result in an overheating accident, which has never happened but presents certain risks

(Feiveson et al, 2011). Spent fuel takes about 1,000 years before its radioactivity level is

roughly equal to the original ore (World Nuclear Association, 2014c); it needs to be handled

with extreme caution, deep under the surface of the earth in order to retain its safety rating.

Transport and storage technologies are incredibly trustworthy in the modern age, leaving the

terrorism and malevolent acts the main concern (Feiveson et al, 2011). Military and other

central government support is implicit in nuclear power, leaving still a very low risk of

accident so long as security protocols are properly designed and implemented consistently.

Towards 2030, non-OECD countries, especially in Asia, are expected to grow energy

demand, and as a result build the lions share of new nuclear reactors (IAEA, 2014). State of

the art technologies further the cause of public safety when it comes to new plants in

developing countries like China, where 28 new units are under construction and scheduled to

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be online before 2020 (Scheider and Froggatt, 2014). It is especially important in these lesser-

developed countries that government agencies responsible for overseeing nuclear power have

and enforce globally-accepted regulations.

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Part 3: Politics and Economics of Energy

Economic law pushes the price of any good higher as supply deceases. Electricity

demand is not perfectly inelastic, but considering that it is a necessity, the demand floor is

well above zero regardless of price increases (Borenstein, 2009). As a general rule, the

market price to consumers of an energy source rises when extraction and production costs to

suppliers rise. Production costs in recent years have increased as more energy inputs are

needed to get resources out of the ground. EROI for oil, gas, and coal have fallen over

decades and while spot market prices may not reflect the trend, in the future the increased

costs to manufacturers will undoubtedly be passed on to consumers (Guilford et al, 2011;

Brandt, 2011; Hall, Lambert, and Balogh, 2014).

In 2006, in the United States, publicly-owned utilities generated only 22% of all

power, while investor-owned utilities and independent power producers supplied near equal

shares for the remaining demand (Kaplan, 2008). Privatization and liberalization of electricity

utilities, as seen in the United States and Europe (Heddenhausen, 2007) will only increase the

focus on profitability, which will change alongside construction and fuel costs in the middle

of the 21st century. Plant costs change from country to country depending on costs of labor,

which is certainly cheaper in Southeast Asia than in Western Europe or North America. Since

the majority of new demand for electricity through the 21st century will come from the

developing world, where labor costs are lower, multiple power sources remain financially

feasible options in global markets. Costs to consumers in ASEAN will probably be most

seriously affected by fuel costs, which are sure to rise toward mid-century, thus making

renewable sources more competitive.

Public transportation in the form of electric trains and subways has started to take off

in the regions metropolitan areas, and a high-speed rail between Kunming, China and

Singapore is planned (Perlez, 2014), but like the remainder of the world, petroleum sustains

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nearly the entirety of ASEANs transportation network. Although current emissions from

automobiles is not as significant as those from electricity production, auto emissions will

grow as consumers purchase more cars, and

Energy Reform in ASEAN: Balancing Political, Economic, and Scientific Objectives

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